Price to pay for survival: massive dilution
TARGET CHANGE
CHANGE IN TARGET PRICE
€ 0.08 vs 0.23 -67.6%

Now that the commercial court has signed off the restructuring and refinancing plans implemented by a new reference shareholder, we use the potential new number of shares of 640m shares vs. the 345m in our previous guesstimates. Note that, since 2018 accounts have yet to be released, the modelling is out of whack anyway. Everything hinges on the ability of the new governance to obtain full funding for the green power projects, delivered on time. The financial restructuring will have taken its toll on that front.


CHANGE IN NAV
€ 0.07 vs 0.23 -69.2%

We have allowed for the potential increase in the number of shares and use the 2020 net debt instead while the gross asset valuation is unchanged.


CHANGE IN DCF
€ 0.15 vs 0.51 -70.4%

We have allowed for the potential increase in the number of shares and changed the sector beta from 0.58 (utilities) - which is way too low as long as the business model has yet to stabilise - to 0.9.