As the new year starts, the elimination of Ghassem Soleimani, Iran's highest military dignitary, by the United States, reawakened fears of a conflagration in the Middle East. But after the shock of the first few hours, reactions are more measured in the financial sphere: indices have rebounded on Wall Street while oil and gold calmed down last night.

Both the European and Asian indices posted gains, with the Stoxx Europe 600 index gaining 0.7%, the Nikkei climbing 1.6% and China's Shanghai Composite edging up 0.7%.

This is despite the fact that Donald Trump’s decision could have far-reaching consequences for the rest of the world. But reading the many editorials published over the last three days on the issue shows that no one is able to measure the real implications. Does Iran have the means for its ambitions of revenge? Not those of a direct military confrontation in any case. But Tehran has other weapons in reserve and will seek to strengthen its ties with the Eastern bloc. At the end of 2019, did Iran, Russia and China not conduct joint naval exercises in the Arabian Sea? This situation could also mean that the US has to leave Iraq to let Iran take over, with all the implications that would ensue, political and economic. Caution therefore, despite the phlegm of the market. In any case, it did not take long for the 2020 economic equation to become singularly complicated.

The Pentagon said today it plans to send B-52 bombers and additional troops to the Middle East.

Iran is evaluating 13 scenarios. The countdown has been launched by Iran to the US withdrawal from the Middle East. Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif has warned of a war that could last for generations if the region continues to depend on the US presence. Several scenarios are being studied by the country in response to the murder of Soleimani. For its part, Germany will temporarily move its troops from Iraq, who were participating in a training mission.

British companies are calling for change. After feeling ignored in the Brexit negotiations, British companies are hoping for a radical change in 2020. Boris Johnson's election victory may have put an end to short-term political uncertainty, but there is still considerable doubt about future relations with the European Union, particularly in terms of trade.

In Austria, after two months of negotiations, the Austrian People's Party (ÖVP) and the Green Party will form the new Austrian government. The Greens approved the coalition program at a party conference on Saturday with 93% of the votes. This coalition is not only a novelty in Austria but in the whole euro area.

Two important "macro" blocks today: December inflation estimates and Euro-zone retail sales and the ISM Services Index and US Factory Orders.