TOP STORIES: 



  Record U.S. Corn Supply Grows Even Bigger 


  A strong planting season for U.S. corn is expected to lead to a record-high supply, as demand for the crop remains muted thanks to the fallout from the coronavirus pandemic. 


  Ending stocks of corn -- unsold corn left over after the marketing year is done -- are expected to total 3.32 billion bushels in 2020-21, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in its monthly supply and demand estimate report Thursday. That figure is 58% higher than last year's ending stocks, according to USDA data. 


  Wheat Sinks as USDA Raises Supply Projections 


  Wheat for July delivery fell 1.4% to $4.99 1/4 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade Thursday, with today's WASDE report from the USDA showing higher U.S. and world stockpiles and production, defying trader expectations. 


  The USDA projects that ending stocks of U.S. wheat will grow to 925 million bushels in 2020/21, up from last month's projection of 909 million bushels. An increase in U.S. production combined with no change to projected exports drove stockpiles higher, which weighed on wheat futures after the reports' release. "The surprises of this report are in the wheat," says Don Roose of U.S. Commodities, pointing to adjustments in world wheat supplies as also bearish for futures. 


  Soybean Export Sales Exceed 2M Tons Says USDA -- Market Talk 


  09:04 ET - Soybean export sales for both the 2019/20 and 2020/21 marketing years exceed 2 million metric tons this week, according to the USDA's weekly export sales report. Between those two marketing years, soybean export sales totaled 2.22 million tons - with new sales to China totaling 854,000 tons for those two marketing years. The total well exceeds forecasts made by grains traders, with those surveyed by The Wall Street Journal expecting anywhere from 900,000 tons to 1.5 million tons. It remains to be seen if grain traders will respond to this strong export sales, with CBOT soybean futures trading 0.2% lower overnight. Meanwhile, wheat sales were weaker than expected at 270,400 tons, and corn sales came in on the low end of expectations at 686,600 tons. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com; @kirkmaltais) 


  STORIES OF INTEREST: 


  Food Companies Hit With Downgrade As Pandemic Gains Subside -- Market Talk 


  0738 ET - Packaged-food companies generated stronger sales earlier this year as consumers scooped up staples to eat at home during coronavirus lockdowns. But as the economy reopens, retail sales data indicates demand is slowing and producers face continuing challenges tied to their units supplying foodservice venues, according to analysts at Bernstein. As such, Bernstein downgrades Campbell Soup, General Mills, Kellogg and JM Smucker to underperform. "We expect the long-term structural pressures to resume for the U.S.-centric food companies" with consumers seeking out less-processed options, Bernstein says. Food company executives have said they hoped to reintroduce consumers to their products during the pandemic and keep them as buyers. Shares of the four companies flagged by Bernstein trade lower premarket. (micah.maidenberg@wsj.com; @MicahMaidenberg) 


  Currency Favors Brazilian Food Exports Despite Recent Strength -- Market Talk 


  11:33 ET - Brazil's currency keeps giving Brazilian farmers an edge over US rivals, despite recent strengthening against the dollar, Allendale's Rich Nelson says. The Brazilian real trades at 4.98 per dollar versus May's 5.89 compared to 3.90 per dollar a year ago. That makes exports more profitable for the Brazilian producer, ratcheting up competition for the American farmer. Nelson says the current rate "is still a price disadvantage for the US," adding to the problems of producers already facing oversupply and weak demand. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani) 


  THE MARKETS: 


  Livestock Futures Close Lower -- Market Talk 


  15:44 ET - Livestock futures on the CME finish down, with most-active live cattle futures off 0.1% to 96.45 cents per pound and lean hog futures losing 1.3% to 52.15 cents per pound. The USDA's WASDE report released at noon forecast a faster-than-anticipated return to full production of US beef and pork, which included a higher production outlook. "The increase in beef and pork production largely reflects a faster-than-anticipated recovery in the pace of slaughter," says the USDA. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com; @kirkmaltais)