Talking Points:
- AUD/USD Retail Crowd Remains Net-Short Despite 15.6K Rise in Australia Employment.
- NZD/USD Risks Larger Rebound as RBNZ Retains Neutral Tone- Double Bottom in Place?
- USDOLLAR Approaching Channel Resistance Ahead of U.S. Retail Sales.
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AUD/USD
Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
- Despite the limited market reaction to the 15.6K rise in Australia Employment, AUD/USD faces a risk for a larger rebound as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) snaps back from 30.
- Ongoing closes above 0.7570 (50% expansion) to 0.7590 (100% expansion) to provide conviction/confirmation for a more meaningful rebound in AUD/USD; will watch former support zones around 0.7720 (1618.% expansion) to 0.07750 (23.6% expansion) for new resistance.
- The DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd remains net-short AUD/USD since March 10, with the ratio currently holding at -1.82.
NZD/USD
- NZD/USD appears to be caving a double-bottom as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) lays out a more neutral tone for monetary policy.
- Even though the RBNZ retains the verbal intervention on the kiwi, NZD/USD may face a larger correction as Governor Graeme Wheeler argues that New Zealand remains in a different situation to those who are cutting interest rates.
- Key topside region of interest stands at former support around 0.7600 (38.2% expansion) to 0.7620 (50% expansion).
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USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):
Index | Last | High | Low | Daily Change (%) | Daily Range (% of ATR) |
DJ-FXCM Dollar Index | 12064.86 | 12122.72 | 12021.82 | -0.34 | 178.45% |
Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
- Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar may continue to come off of channel resistance as U.S. Retail Sales disappoints for the third-consecutive month; will the Fed drop the ‘patience’ language at the March 18 meeting?
- Keeping a close eye on the RSI as it fails to push above 80 and comes off of overbought territory, but the long-term outlook remains bullish as the Fed remains well on course to normalize monetary policy in 2015.
- A break/close below former resistance zone around 11,997(100% expansion) to 12,007 (50% expansion) may expose 11,864 (23.6% expansion).
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Release | GMT | Expected | Actual |
Advance Retail Sales (MoM) (FEB) | 12:30 | 0.3% | -0.6% |
Advance Retail Sales ex Auto (MoM) (FEB) | 12:30 | 0.5% | -0.1% |
Advance Retail Sales ex Auto & Gas (MoM) (FEB) | 12:30 | 0.3% | -0.2% |
Advance Retail Sales Control Group (FEB) | 12:30 | 0.4% | 0.0% |
Initial Jobless Claims (MAR 7) | 12:30 | 305K | 289K |
Continuing Claims (FEB 28) | 12:30 | 2400K | 2418K |
Import Price Index (MoM) (FEB) | 12:30 | 0.2% | 0.4% |
Import Price Index (YoY) (FEB) | 12:30 | -8.9% | -9.4% |
Business Inventories (JAN) | 14:00 | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Household Change in Net Worth (4Q) | 16:00 | -- | $1517B |
Monthly Budget Statement (FEB) | 18:00 | -$188.5B |
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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst
To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.
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