By Kirk Maltais


--Corn for December delivery fell 1.4%, to $4.68 a bushel, on the Chicago Board of Trade on Friday, with traders bracing to see how much Brazilian weather may, or may not, show improvement over the weekend going into next week.

--Soybeans for December delivery fell 1.2%, to $13.44 a bushel.

--Wheat for December delivery fell 0.2%, to $5.52 1/2 a bushel.


HIGHLIGHTS


Relieving Some Stress: Rains forecast for Brazil next week put pressure on CBOT grains. However, the rainfall is seen as "an interlude rather than a pattern change," said AgResource in a note. The firm adds that how much rain the country receives in December will be key in determining Brazilian crop health. Dryness in the north and excess rain in the south have been factors pressuring planting and early crop development--with Brazil's crops being key competition for the U.S.

Improving Supply Outlook: CBOT wheat spent Friday closing in on its lowest level since September, which was also the weakest point since 2020. Driving the push downward is the improving supply outlook for overseas crops in the short term, said Commerzbank in a note. The Australian wheat crop is trending toward better yields, the firm says, and European wheat crops are also showing a slight improvement.


INSIGHT


Mississippi Mud: This week's release from the U.S. Drought Monitor showed expanding areas of extreme and exceptional drought, the most-severe categories of drought. The situation is most dire in Louisiana, where the majority of the state is covered with the highest level of drought, according to the monitor. Other states seeing growing drought conditions include Mississippi, Alabama, and Tennessee. These adverse conditions, if they last into next spring, will likely have the biggest effect on cotton-planting, but will also likely affect corn and soybean acres there.

New Year, New Trend: Tough weather in Brazil is expected to be a key factor weighing on grain futures for the rest of the year, with the northern portion of the country suffering with drought conditions and the southern part inundated with precipitation. If these conditions persist, then farmers there will have difficulty finishing planting, with ADM Investor Services projecting that roughly 25% of soybean acres may have to be replanted. AgResource forecasts that CBOT wheat may rebound to $6.25-$6.50 a bushel, corn to $5.40-$5.60 a bushel, and soybeans to $14.25-$14.75 a bushel in the first quarter of 2024.


AHEAD


--The USDA will release its weekly grains export inspections report at 11 a.m. ET Monday.

--The USDA will release its weekly crop progress report at 4 p.m. ET Monday.

--The EIA will release its weekly ethanol production and stocks report at 10:30 a.m. ET Wednesday.

--The USDA will release its monthly Cold Storage report at 3 p.m. ET Wednesday.


Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com


(END) Dow Jones Newswires

11-17-23 1536ET