By Kirk Maltais


-Soybeans for March delivery fell 1.6% to $12.03 3/4 a bushel, on the Chicago Board of Trade on Thursday, with this morning's weak export sales report from the USDA setting the tone for the day.

-Corn for March delivery fell 0.4% to $4.46 3/4 a bushel.

-Wheat for March delivery rose 0.9% to $6.01 a bushel.


HIGHLIGHTS


Big Cut: U.S. soybean exports for the week ended Jan. 25 fell well below analyst estimates, the USDA reported this morning, due mostly to a large reduction of 407,400 metric tons previously announced for unknown destinations. In its report Thursday, the USDA said soybean sales across the 2023/24 and 2024/25 marketing years totaled only 165,800 metric tons, missing analyst forecasts. Net sales of corn slightly beat the high end of analysts' forecasts-totaling 1.35 million tons in both marketing years, and wheat sales fell within expectations at 338,000 tons across both years.

In The Crosshairs: Focus on weather in Brazil and Argentina by grain traders is saturated with expectations of it being hot and dry until rainfall arrives later in the week, says AgResource in a note. "The forecast models are trying to decipher rainfall totals and locations," says the firm.


INSIGHT


Frozen in Place: The movement of grain barges on the Mississippi River has slowed down significantly, as winter weather puts the river into a deep freeze. For the week ended Jan. 27, barged grain movement was down 45% from the previous year, the USDA said in its latest Grains Transportation Report. It's the second consecutive week of slowed down barges on the river system, according to the USDA. A slowdown in barge traffic can impact grain export sales, as buyers become nervous to commit to purchases when there's issues with the river system.

Patiently Waiting: The value for CBOT corn futures has been treading water between the $4.45 to $4.55 a bushel range since January 11. Tomm Pfitzenmaier of Summit Commodity Brokerage sees the action as a deadlock between competing interests. "The corn market is stuck in a trading range with funds holding a substantial short position and commercials beginning to accumulate a long position," he said in a note. "The farmer is sitting on a substantial quantity of corn and that is going to be a lid on corn prices for a while." Farmers have been resistant to selling their corn at current price levels, in hopes of realizing better profits if they wait.

Stock Surge: Corteva's stock jumped 17% after the seed and pesticide maker said farmers are continuing to shell out for high-tech crop seeds. Corteva forecast higher sales for 2024 and reports quarterly profit numbers above Wall Street expectations - even as grain commodity costs have fallen over the past year and farm income is expected to decline this year. Corteva executives said on a call with analysts that farmer income will still be historically elevated and they expect farmer spending to remain healthy.


AHEAD


-The CFTC will release its weekly Commitment of Traders report at 3:30 p.m. ET Friday.

-The USDA will release its weekly grains export inspections report at 11 a.m. ET Monday.

--The EIA will release its weekly ethanol production and stocks report at 10:30 a.m. ET Wednesday.


Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com


(END) Dow Jones Newswires

02-01-24 1527ET