National Australia Bank will include additional provision and charges of $450m in its second half. A review of expected credit losses and associated impact on provisions has not yet concluded.

Morgan Stanley assumes the covid-19 overlay in the second half is topped up by $200m but acknowledges potential for a larger amount, given the Victorian lockdown.

Equal-weight rating. Target is $17.50. Industry view: In-line.

Sector: Banks.

Target price is $17.50.Current Price is $19.53. Difference: ($2.03) - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If NAB meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately -12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

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