Predator Oil & Gas Holdings Plc | Building a Greenfield Carbon | ||
Corporate Presentation July 2020 | Neutral Energy Future | ||
The future of our industry is to become the single most important contributor to commercial CO2 subsurface storage in geological reservoirs that experience tells us are suitable for safe storage
Sequestrating anthropogenic
CO2 in Trinidad
Non-shale gas LNG to secure energy supply in transition to renewable energy in Ireland and large-scale CO2 sequestration
High impact indigenous gas exploration to replace coal in Moroccan power plants and create subsurface CO2 sequestration opportunity
Predator Oil & Gas Holdings PLC | Corporate Presentation | 1 |
Disclaimer
This presentation ("Presentation") has been prepared by Predator Oil & Gas Holdings Plc (the "Company" or "Predator") solely in connection with providing information on the Company and may be subject to change. It is being issued to certain persons on the basis that they fall within one of the exemptions contained in the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (as amended) (the "Order"). The contents of this Presentation have accordingly not been approved by an authorised person for the purposes of section 21 Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 ("FSMA"). Such approval of this Presentation would be required by section 21 FSMA if the exemptions referred to below, or some other exemption, did not apply to it.
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Predator Oil & Gas Holdings PLC | Corporate Presentation | 2 |
Business growth summarised (IPO 2018)
Resilient business equipped to grow despite the challenging environment presented by COVID-19
¹ Predator management estimate 2020
Predator management estimate 2020
&
Predator Oil & Gas Holdings PLC | Corporate Presentation | 3 |
Predator Oil & Gas Holdings Plc Overview
Company Overview | 5 |
2020 Guidance and Outlook | 6 |
Portfolio Overview | 7 |
Core Operated: Morocco Guercif | 8 |
Core Non-Operated: Trinidad Inniss-Trinity CO2 EOR | 17 |
Core Operated: LNG Ireland | 26 |
Core Operated: Ireland Corrib South | 32 |
Core Operated: Ireland Ram | 35 |
H2 2020 - 2021 Activities and Valuation Catalysts | 37 |
Appendix | 38 |
Board of Directors & Experienced Management Team | 39 |
Highlights of Financial Results for 2019 | 40 |
Significant Shareholders | 41 |
Predator Oil & Gas Holdings PLC | Corporate Presentation | 4 |
Company Overview
Standard-listed E & P with five projects in Morocco, Trinidad & Ireland
Providing low risk, high impact, gas-weighted exploration, LNG exposure & active CO2 sequestration Resilient project economics based on downside protection against lower oil prices & low capital outlay
100%-weighted towards reducing CO2 emissions using historical oil industry experience
-
reservoir understanding to create safe havens for anthropogenic CO2 & subsurface sequestration capacity Executing this vital component of a climate mitigation tool kit in Trinidad
Initial potential to store up to 340,000 metric tonnes of CO2¹
200 MMboe P50 net prospective gas resources at 28/02/20 & 6.8 MMbo P50 net contingent oil resources¹
461.65 MMboe P10 net prospective gas resources at 28/02/20 & 8.9 MMbo P10 net contingent oil resources¹ 98/02% gas/oil weighting
Risking for projects 12 to 34% chance of success - Contingent resources are low risk pending development
Market cap at 22/7/20 of £8.77 MM representing US$ 0.05/boe for unrisked P50 resources²
A strong platform to de-risk, through drilling, under-valued prospective resources for a multiple uplift in
market cap & to provide a catalyst for M & A transactions
Complemented by initiating FSRU LNG projects for tolling fees & the potential to generate carbon credits
from CO2 sequestration & selling storage capacity
- strong & experienced management team & Board focussed on short-cycle,NAV-accretive growth projects from organic initiation to executing opportunistic M & A transactions to achieve shareholder returns Management own approximately 22% of the issued share capital and are aligned with shareholders
¹ Subject to exercising an option to acquire FRAM Exploration (Trinidad) Ltd | ² Exchange rate $1.27/£1.00 |
Linked by CO2 emissions record per capita
Morocco
Trinidad
Ireland
Predator Oil & Gas Holdings PLC | Corporate Presentation | 5 |
2020 Guidance and Outlook - Disciplined Growth Potential
ASSET | ACTIVITY TO 30/9/20 | ACTIVITY Q4 2020 | CAPEX to Q4 2020 | |
Core operated assets | ||||
Guercif | - WI 75% | Well planning | Drilling¹/Farmout for appraisal well(s) | £1,705,336 |
Corrib South | - WI 50% | Progress award of successor authorisation with regulatory authorities² | Zero | |
Ram Head | - WI 50% | Progress award of successor authorisation with regulatory authorities² | Zero | |
Follow up farmin approach | ||||
LNG Licence | Progress application for LNG Import Licence with Commission for Regulation | Zero | ||
Ireland | - WI 100% | of Utilities | ||
Core operated assets | ||||
Inniss-Trinity | Gross production guidance | Gross production guidance³ | ||
CO2 EOR profits | - WI 50 - 100%³ | 50 - 100 bopd | 100 - 300 bopd | £591,291 |
Non-core discretionary New Ventures | ||||
New CO2 EOR Trinidad, onshore Guyana and | Evaluate opportunities | Seek working interests if | Zero | |
Barbados CO2 EOR, LNG Morocco | commercially attractive | |||
- Timing subject to lifting of COVID-19 restrictions ² Any ban on fossil fuel exploration offshore Ireland does not apply to existing licences - which therefore command premium value ³ Decision to potentially acquire FRAM will be made by 30/9/20
FY 2020 £2,296,627 capital programme funded from over-subscribed equity raises with strong liquidity position
• Convertible Loan Note repaid in full in H1 2020
• Over-subscribed Placings in H1 2020 raised gross proceeds of £3.56MM and £0.448MM respectively
• Restricted cash of £1,181,102 (Guercif Bank Guarantee)
• Profits from Trinidad CO2 EOR, robust at low oil prices, to further strengthen liquidity
• Quality asset portfolio, high equity interests and "greener passport" create M & A opportunities to increase liquidity further
• Disciplined capital activity and entering a period of cash generation
6
Portfolio Overview
Core Operated: | Guercif Morocco |
Core Non-Operated:Inniss-Trinity CO2 EOR Trinidad | |
Core Operated: | LNG Ireland |
Core Operated: | Corrib South Ireland |
Core Operated: | Ram Head Ireland |
Predator Oil & Gas Holdings PLC | Corporate Presentation | 7 |
Overview & current status
Morocco Overview
- Moulouya (MOU)-1 ready for drilling with Environmental Impact Assessment approved
- Earliest Q4 2020 after COVID-19 restrictions lifted to allow rig crews into country
- Predator owns 75% and operates
- Hydrocarbon play concept is de-risked - on trend to Rharb Basin gas production (excellent reservoirs)
- Prospectivity of northern Morocco recognised by ConocoPhillips acquiring licence adjoining Guercif 12/6/20
-
GRF-1untested 1972 gas discovery less than 2 kms from proposed MOU-1 well Thermogenic gas shows over a gross interval of 297 metres within multiple target reservoirs Predator (2020) NuTech log analysis confirms presence of gas
Formation Interval Test recovered small volume of dry gas Demonstrates high chance of finding gas at MOU-1 - Prospective area high-graded for drilling covers 100 km² with multiple traps - some larger than entire Rharb Basin cumulative historical production
- Favourable fiscal regime, including 10-year tax holiday
- Average domestic gas price US$10 -US$11/mcf for industrial/commercial users - Competing against more expensive fuel oil imports
- Gas prices for gas-to-power based on Brent oil price -US$7.4/mcf at 23/7/20 Competing against more expensive Algerian gas
- Robust economics - low drilling & development costs (2 kms. to Mahgreb pipeline) generate undiscounted netbacks of US$5 - US$6/mcf at gas-to-power gas prices based on management project economics
Key near-term activity
- Drill MOU-1 to evaluate commercial case for gas-to-power
- Complete mapping of locations for appraisal drilling
- Offer options to farmin for larger drilling programme Q1/Q2 2021 & evaluate potential for M & A
- Offer options to purchase gas upon discovery (for export, as Maghreb pipeline ownership changes 2021)
- Guercif gas is near-term development, low production costs & high net-backs - undercut EU gas prices
- Evaluating FRSU LNG & Compressed Natural Gas options
Morocco Licence Interests
Predator WI | 75% Operator | |
Partner | ONHYM (25%) | |
Net resources & valuation | 2019¹ | 2020² |
P50 Prospective MMboe | 79.3 | 79.3 |
P10 Prospective MMboe | 157.3 | 157.3 |
P50 ENPV US$MM unrisked | 832 | 832 |
P10 ENPV US$MM unrisked | 1,667 | 1,667 |
Guidance update 2020 Capex £1.705 MM
¹ SLR Consulting 2019 CPR & ² SLR Consulting 2020 CPR
Predator Oil & Gas Holdings PLC | Corporate Presentation | 8 |
Northern Morocco European Gas Infrastructure
Potentially inefficient asset when ownership passes to Morocco in 2021
Cheaply produced natural gas to remain fuel of European choice for decades to come
-
Guercif is high-impact exploration straddling infrastructure
Unique commercial opportunity - location/geology/resources/untapped market
Gas Market
-
Domestic - 1.1 bcm (38.3 BCF) annually (2018) or 106 mm cfgpd 93% power generation (approximately 100 mm cfgpd)
Imports from Algeria at average 18% premium to UK NBP prices (2018) Industrial/commercial market expandable short-term to up to 50 mm cfgpd
Up to 13% of this potential market currently being supplied
• Export - 1200 mmscf/day export capacity for cheaper gas to Europe (diversifies security of supply to reduce reliance on Russian gas)
- Planned - 1200mw (180 mm cfgpd) new-buildgas-fired power station (gas source?)
- Convert - Moroccan CO2 emissions 1.68 tCO2/capita (2018)
Ratified Paris Agreement in 2016 - unconditional target to reduce greenhouse gases by 17% below BAU by 2030
Pre-COVID19 estimated required investment US$26 billion to achieve goal Approximately 85% (4,800 MW or 720 mm cfgpd) of power generation from carbon-intensive coal and oil
Electricity Market
Morocco seeks to become exporter of electricity to Spain but cannot compete with Spanish electricity prices: 0.05 - 0.06 euros/kWh (2018) Guercif gas cheaper to produce - increases Morocco's competitiveness
Predator Oil & Gas Holdings PLC | Corporate Presentation | 9 |
Guercif exploration - Proposed MOU-1 well to test multiple gas targets
EIA approved
Target reservoirs
Reservoir Target | Trap | P50 - P10 | ||||
All intervals have GRF-1 gas shows | Gross Prospective Resources | |||||
TGB-4 | Stratigraphic pinchout of sands | 426 - 879 BCF COS 34% | ||||
TGB-3 | Seismic amplitude anomalies | SLR Consulting CPR 2020 | ||||
TGB-2 | Down-faulted trap/with amplitudes | 50 - 138 BCF COS 57% | ||||
Management scoping estimates 2020 | ||||||
TGB-2a | Mid-Tortoniandelta-slope/submarine fan | 1,145 - 2,678 BCF COS 10% | ||||
complex - area of 42.17 km² | Management scoping estimates 2020 | |||||
with seismic amplitude anomalies | Seismic and drilling required to de-risk | |||||
TGB-1 | Down-faulted trap - compartmentalised | 19 - 38 BCF COS 63% | ||||
TGB-1a | Shallow marine and coastal sands | Management scoping estimates 2020 | ||||
MOU-1 Proposed | GRF-1 untested gas shows | |||||
Robust down-faulted trap | Downdip tilted fault block | |||||
TGB-4TGB-3
TGB-2
TGB-2a
TGB-1
TGB-1a
Predator Oil & Gas Holdings PLC | Corporate Presentation | 10 |
MOU-1TGB-2 reservoir target
Lowest risk reservoir target | 57% COS rating compares with Rharb Basin risking for gas discoveries | ||||
Key attributes | • Seismic amplitude anomaly consistent with structural closure | ||||
• Raw amplitudes strengthen where gas sands are developed | |||||
(proven in Rharb Basin & Anchois-1 Repsol gas find offshore | |||||
• Repsol showed that AVO & 3D seismic inversion cannot | |||||
distinguish presence of gas - only drilling can | |||||
• Effective vertical gas charge from deep Jurassic source rocks (via | |||||
faults - gas in offset well GRF-1, 1.5 kms. to SW) | |||||
• Effective claystone seals proven in GRF-1 | |||||
P90 to P50 area of closure | • 4.1 to 8.37km ² | ||||
Gross gas resources | • 50 - 138 BCF¹ (P90 to P50) | ||||
• 10 - 55 metres sand thickness based on Anchois-1 in similar | |||||
geological setting | |||||
Comparisons | • 50 BCF is larger than all the discovered and produced gas in the | ||||
Rharb Basin | |||||
• Repsol (2009) estimated Anchois-1 offshore well proved 126 BCF | |||||
of gross resources (but no drill stem test carried out) | |||||
Depth, rig time & costs | MOU-1 (Q4 2020) | ||||
• 1,229 metres below ground level | |||||
• 11 days rig time to TGB-2 target sand | |||||
• US$ 2.5 million dry hole estimated cost (without testing) | |||||
Repsol Anchois-1 (2009) | |||||
• 2,359 metres below mean sea level | |||||
• 60 days rig time to drill | |||||
• Approximately US$ 70 million (untested) | |||||
¹ Predator management estimate | |||||
Predator Oil & Gas Holdings PLC | Corporate Presentation | 11 | ||||
MOU-1TGB-3 and TGB-4 reservoir targets
Predator Oil & Gas Holdings PLC | Corporate Presentation | 12 |
MOU-1TGB-2a reservoir target
10% COS (Predator management estimate 2020) | ||||||||||||||||
• | Moderate seismic amplitude anomaly at MOU-1 location consistent | |||||||||||||||
with structural closure | ||||||||||||||||
• | Porous & permeable volcaniclastic reservoir in GRF-1 has gas | |||||||||||||||
saturations & effective claystone seals | ||||||||||||||||
• | Gross P50 & P10 gas resources of 1,145 to 2,678 BCF unrisked | |||||||||||||||
(Predator management estimate 2020) | ||||||||||||||||
• | 10 to 55 metres of sand thickness based on Anchois-1 in similar | |||||||||||||||
geological setting | ||||||||||||||||
• | MOU-1 tests extremity of TGB-2a delta slope/fan & assesses reservoir | |||||||||||||||
quality of volcaniclastics/sands - potentially to de-risk new upside | ||||||||||||||||
MOU-1 Q4 2020 | ||||||||||||||||
Stratigraphic trap | ||||||||||||||||
• | 1,376 metres below ground level | |||||||||||||||
"running room" | • | 12 days rig time to TGB-2a | ||||||||||||||
• US$ 2.5 million dry hole estimate (without testing) | ||||||||||||||||
MOU-1 Proposed | GRF-1 | TGB-2a gas reservoir | ||||||||||||||
GRF-1 - TGB-2a gas indications | ||||||||||||||||
• | Maximum porosity 16% | |||||||||||||||
• | NuTech confirms permeability | |||||||||||||||
• 40 - 50% gas saturations | ||||||||||||||||
TGB-4TGB-3 | • C1 -to trace C3 gas readings on 1972 mud logs | |||||||||||||||
• | Total gas 0.21% | |||||||||||||||
TGB-2 | • comparable to Anchois-1 gas pay shows 0.23% | |||||||||||||||
TGB-2a | ||||||||||||||||
TGB-1 | ||||||||||||||||
TGB-1a | ||||||||||||||||
Predator Oil & Gas Holdings PLC | Corporate Presentation | 13 | |||||||||||||||
MOU-1TGB-1a reservoir target | Predator NuTech (2020) petrophysics GRF-1 | ||||
Previous operator petrophysics GRF-1 | |||||
Confirms gas-bearing zone with porosity and permeability | |||||
Strong amplitudes at pinchout of TGB-1a sands
MOU-1 |
Proposed well |
GRF-1 (1972) |
Proved gas In |
this compartment |
Top Jurassic depth map subsea |
Predator Oil & Gas Holdings PLC | Corporate Presentation | 14 |
Future drilling activity - "running room" as a catalyst for M & A
MOU-1 successful outcome de-risks multiple existing 2D seismic
Prospects & future 3D seismic may also expand the prospect portfolio
Predator Oil & Gas Holdings PLC | Corporate Presentation
Revised MOU-1 drilling schedule
¹ Subject to relaxing of COVID-19 travel restrictions by 1st October 2020
Predator Oil & Gas Holdings PLC | Corporate Presentation | 16 |
Onshore Trinidad Overview
¹ SLR Consulting 2019 CPR & ² SLR Consulting 2020 CPR
Predator Oil & Gas Holdings PLC | Corporate Presentation | 17 |
Inniss-TrinityAT-4 Block
Pilot CO2 & production guidance
Predator Oil & Gas Holdings PLC | Corporate Presentation | 18 |
Portable Predator wholly-owned CO2 EOR injection/production equipment
Downhole Completions
CO2 Injection System
Pressure monitoring
Isolation Packer
Independent CO2 Operations Team
Dedicated production facilities
Predator Oil & Gas Holdings PLC | Corporate Presentation | 19 |
CO2 EOR Project Schedule
50 - 100 bopd | 100 - 300 bopd |
Predator Oil & Gas Holdings PLC | Corporate Presentation | 20 |
Background & Rationale for FRAM Offer
Background
- Pursuant to the Well Participation Agreement ("WPA") dated 17 November 2017 as amended by Supplemental Agreement No.1 dated 31 May 2018, Supplemental Agreement No.2 dated 21 January 2019 & Supplemental Agreement No.3 dated 26 September 2019 between FRAM Exploration (Trinidad) Ltd ("FRAM") & Predator Oil & Gas Trinidad Ltd ("POGT"), POGT served written notice on 14 July 2020 of its intent to exercise its option under Recital B of the WPA to make an offer (the "Offer") to enter into a Share Purchase Agreement to acquire the entire outstanding issued share capital of FRAM
- Offer comprised a Cash Consideration of US$1.75 million
- Columbus Energy Resources Plc are currently in a proposed merger that under the Scheme Document prevents the disposal of any material asset - Court Hearing set for 5 August 2020 to confirm merger with Bahamas Petroleum Company Plc and subject to FRAM change of control consent in Trinidad
Rationale for Offer and the Offer Price
- Offer premeditated by uncertainty created by the proposed Columbus & Bahamas merger and change of control consents required for FRAM
- Opportunity arose for third-party funding from an indigenous Trinidadian company to underwrite the cash consideration offered
- Local party has access to new opportunities suitable for CO2 EOR & is mainly focussed on increasing conventional oil production using their rigs & well services - complements the Predator business model
Predator CO2 EOR Business Model
- We seek only to be a specialist CO2 EOR services company in a profit-sharing arrangement
- Our business model not based on being a licence holder & assuming regulatory burdens & existing licence obligations
- Focussed on profitability from enhanced oil production with low administrative overheads & low capital outlays
Fair Offer Price closer to true Market Value without CO2 EOR
- Investment to date in pilot CO2 EOR project in Inniss-Trinity taken into account in arriving at the Offer Price
- Organic CO2 EOR business with ownership of specialist equipment, engineering design, subsurface understanding, environmental template for operations
& exclusivity over Trinidad's surplus liquid CO2 supply - premium value puts Predator in the driving seat - Inniss-TrinityIncremental Production Services Contract was extended by FRAM (the IPSC operator) on the basis of Predator's CO2 EOR third party services and investment - replaced a 7 well infill-drilling obligation for FRAM which translates into a material gain for FRAM by removing a balance sheet liability & is reflected in the Offer Price - no Predator CO2 EOR means the FRAM IPSC work obligation cannot be fulfilled
Predator Oil & Gas Holdings PLC | Corporate Presentation | 21 |
CO2 sequestration potential
- So far in 2020 Predator has initially injected 380 metric tonnes of anthropogenic CO2 in Inniss-Trinity to progress the sustainability of developing its natural resources in the context of climate change mitigation
- Potentially Trinidad's ammonia plants could ultimately commercially sequestrate 15,625 metric tonnes of CO2/day generating potential carbon credits in the future
- CO2 EOR operations are currently the only form of CO2 sequestration that is commercial on an industrial scale
- Historical analysis of producing hydrocarbon reservoirs is critical for understanding safe sequestration & sequestration capacity
- Building our business based on practical sequestration technical & engineering expertise & the development of regulatory
- environmental templates gives Predator leverage for M & A transactions with companies seeking to improve their "green" balance sheets
Predator Oil & Gas Holdings PLC | Corporate Presentation | 22 |
Inniss-Trinity CO2 EOR contingent¹ (pending development) resources²
¹ Subject to an acquisition of FRAM
² SLR Consulting 2019 CPR & ² SLR Consulting 2020 CPR
- Historical CO2 EOR project in the Forest Reserve oil field achieved 7.6% recovery of oil in place
- Forest Reserve viscosity higher (12 - 3000 cp) than in pilot CO2 EOR area of the AT-4 Block at Inniss-Trinity
- API oil gravity lower (14 - 25 API) at Forest Reserve than at Inniss-Trinity (average 31 API oil gravity)
Predator Oil & Gas Holdings PLC | Corporate Presentation | 23 |
Net-backs & expenditures
Producing CO2 EOR reserves (one to five wells in AT-4 Block)
- Based on average 100 bopd over 3 month cycle after one month CO2 injection of 380 MT (7,800 brls recovered)
• | Net-back @ WTI US$41/brl (28/7/20) | 23.28 US$/brl |
• | Break-even | 7.0 US$/brl |
CO2 well injection costs |
- Based on one CO2 injector well and 380 MT CO2 injected over one month)
- US$ 103,000 representing US$6.6 to US$13.2/brl (production range 100 - 200 bopd)
Predator management estimate 2020
Capital costs
- Portable CO2 delivery system, downhole equipment and dedicated production facilities already paid for
- Capital expenditure 2020 guidance of £590,000 includes contingency for second CO2 delivery system & dedicated production facilities for new areas in Inniss-Trinity & new projects & additional CO2 purchases when required
Key risks dictating net-backs include, but are not limited to
- Well productivities
- Required CO2 volume - forecast is 0.95 mcf CO2/barrel of oil whereas Forest Reserve (heavier & more viscous oil) required 6.3 mcf/barrel of oil)
- Maintenance - breakdown of injection facilities, well workovers, interruptions in CO2 supply in rainy season
- Utilising FRAM tax losses & regulatory delays
- Minimising administration and "science" costs
- Optimising & changing injection & production cycle strategy to maximise early production & efficiency savings in the use of the CO2 delivery system
Predator Oil & Gas Holdings PLC | Corporate Presentation | 24 |
CO2 EOR values & growth potential
CO2 EOR values
Inniss-Trinity
- Inniss-TrinityContingent (pending development) CO2 EOR resources are 6.8 million barrels
- 86 wells are available for CO2 EOR operations, although not all will be suitable due to well condition & geology
- Five Herrera sands are suitable for CO2 injection and enhanced oil production
- Utilising all of the allowable FRAM tax losses & a conservative net-back of US$10/brl gives unrisked net-back of USD 68 million
Predator management estimate 2020
Upside for onshore Trinidad ageing mature oil fields
- 300 mm cfpd of high purity anthropogenic CO2 is being vented to the atmosphere from Trinidad's ammonia plants
- Harnessing the CO2 out-take for commercial sequestration in Trinidad's ageing oil fields could unlock some of the 3 billion barrels of oil postulated to remain in the mature onshore oil fields (http://theenergyyear.com)
- Assuming a 10% recovery factor & a 50% redundancy based on suitability for CO2 EOR operations, 150 million barrels of incremental
oil production could be achievable if commercial CO2 EOR can be de-risked
• At a net-back of US$10/brl this represent unrisked revenues of US$1,500 million
- CO2 sequestration could be the basis for participation in a global carbon credits trading platform as climate change mitigation dominates investment strategies
Predator M & A Strategy
- De-riskcommercial CO2 EOR operations in its Inniss-Trinity pilot project
- Maintain exclusivity over CO2 supply
- Continually strengthen in-country relationships - particularly environmental & regulatory & well services
- Demonstrate subsurface understanding, engineering design & construction capabilities & commercial initiative
- Consolidate integrated CO2 EOR business for an M & A transaction with parties seeking large-scale commercial CO2 sequestration opportunities
Predator Oil & Gas Holdings PLC | Corporate Presentation | 25 |
Overview & current status
Ireland Overview
- Successor authorisations applied for 2018 (Corrib South) & 2019 (Ram Head)
- Predator owns 50% and operates
- Existing Irish licences and successor authorisations will not be subject the fossil fuel exploration ban
- Assets are close to the producing Corrib gas field infrastructure and the Kinsale gas field pipeline, which is the subject of the Kinsale gas field decommissioning plan
- Successor authorisations could utilise this existing infrastructure if regulatory approval were to be granted
- Focus for Ireland is on security of energy supply and reduction in CO2 emissions to meet EUR requirements
- Predator focus is on securing an LNG import licence for a Floating Storage and Regassification Unit ("FSRU") to contribute to security of energy supply and to exploit the global rise of LNG as the fuel of choice for the future
- Gas feedstock for LNG will not come from shale gas
- Current assets forming the applications for successor authorisations are compatible with the development of gas storage to complement regassification and storage of LNG imports for security of supply
- Successor authorisations add potential value to LNG business
Key near-term activity | Offshore Ireland - Ram Head & Corrib South | ||
• Latest audited accounts provided to regulatory authorities June 2020 as part of the regulatory process | |||
Predator WI | 50% Operator | ||
for assessing the applications for successor authorisations | |||
• SLR Consulting Ireland Ltd appointed to develop high level regulatory and environmental timetable | Partner | Theseus Ltd (50%) | |
• FSRU vessel owner fully engaged with Predator in developing the project design scope and timetable | |||
Net resources | 2019¹ | 2020² | |
• Commission for Regulation of Utilities now engaging with Predator in respect of the timetable for the | |||
regulatory process leading to the granting of a licence to import LNG | P50 Prospective MMboe | 120.3 | 120.3 |
• Gas Networks Ireland engaging with Predator on the scope of the upgrade required to Ireland's gas | P10 Prospective MMboe | 313.6 | 313.6 |
transmission in the Greater Cork area & at the Inch entry point to the grid to raise operating pressures | P50 Contingent MMboe | 95 | 95 |
from 35 to 70 bar | |||
P10 Contingent MMboe | 247 | 247 | |
• Gas sales confidentiality agreements executed with two potential gas buyers for up to 300 mm cfgpd | |||
starting Q3 2023 | Guidance update 2020 Capex £ Zero | ||
• Confidentiality agreement signed with global LNG supplier | ¹ SLR Consulting 2019 CPR & ² SLR Consulting 2020 CPR | ||
Predator Oil & Gas Holdings PLC | Corporate Presentation | 26 | ||
FSRU'S - A CRITICAL LINK IN THE LNG VALUE CHAIN
- FSRUs have established themselves as the preferred mode of access to the global LNG market with multiple clear advantages over traditional onshore import terminals
- Less capital intensive (c. 1/2 of the installation cost of onshore)
- Smaller environmental footprint compared to onshore terminal
- Faster to install (down to 12 months versus 4-5 years for onshore)
- Flexibility (to relocate the FSRU or use it as an LNG Carrier)
- In addition to the standard FSRU setup with pipeline to shore with re- gasified LNG, it can serve as a hub for LNG such as:
Small-scale distribution at sea - reloading LNG to smaller carriers serving other demand centers distribution by road
Bunkering - providing LNG as marine fuel, directly or by smaller shuttles
Predator Oil & Gas Holdings PLC | Corporate Presentation | 27 |
Predator LNG is the frontrunner to be a new entrant to Irish gas market
- POTENTIAL FOR SECURE LONG TERM LNG SUPPLY REQUIRED BY IRISH GOVERNMENT
Consistent with GNI's¹ long term resilience study for a floating LNG terminal as a cost-effective option to secure supplies in the future Security of supply to be an Irish government priority in 2021 to meet EU standards
¹ Gas Networks Ireland
- LNG FEEDSTOCK NOT FROM SHALE GAS - CLEANER ENERGY
- FITS WITH EU CO2 EMISSIONS REDUCTION STRATEGY, LNG AND GAS STORAGE POLICY GUIDELINES
Fast-track solution for Ireland to reduce air emissions, cutting EU emissions taxes, enabling savings on fuel costs & reducing electricity price per KWh for consumers
- LNG STORAGE & REGASIFICATION VESSEL ("FSRU") SOURCED & AVAILABLE
FSRU offers greater potential to rapidly meet peak day demand with rapid send out similar to high gas storage withdrawal rates
- CAPEX REQUIRED FOR FSRU COMMISSIONING AND SUBSEA HOOK-UP SOURCED & AVAILABLE
- PETRONAS (KINSALE ENERGY) SEEKS TO DIVEST ITSELF OF EXPORT GAS PIPELINE ABANDONMENT LIABILITY
Predator has approached Irish regulatory authorities to register interest in inheriting the pipeline
Predator's medium-term commercial solution for the pipeline preserves it for potential CO2 sequestration in the longer term
- INSTALLATION AND COMMISSIONING OF THE FSRU WITHIN 18 MONTHS
NO OTHER GAS OR ONSHORE LNG PROJECT SUFFICIENTLY ADVANCED TO COMPETE WITH THIS TIMELINE
Predator Oil & Gas Holdings PLC | Corporate Presentation | 28 |
Why the Irish gas market
- INCH TERMINAL GIVES ACCESS TO GNI GAS TRANSMISSION GRID WITHOUT LARGE CAPITAL INVESTMENT
- ADOPTION EU TARIFF CODE IN 2019 GIVES CAPPACITY & COMMODITY RIGHTS - AVOIDS ANTI-COMPETITIVE PRACTICES
- SECURITY & DIVERSITY OF GAS SUPPLY CRITICAL TO IRELAND AFTER BREXIT & DECLINING INDIGENOUS GAS PRODUCTION
- IRISH GAS MARKET IS DEPENDENT ON IMPORTED UK GAS - BREXIT, SHALE GAS & OVER-RELIANCE ARE POLICY ISSUES
- GAS PRICE IS FIXED AT UK NBP - Corporation Tax only 12.5% (Business Trade) Germany as high as 30 - 33% Lithuania 15%
- HIGHER THAN EUROPEAN AVERAGE DIFFERENTIAL BETWEEN WHOLESALE GAS PRICES AND GAS PRICES PAID BY POWER GENERATORS AND COMMERCIAL/INDUSTRIAL CUSTOMERS
Irish gas prices for business increased from 107.5% of UK equivalent price to 135.7% between 2015 & 2017, as first UK LNG shale gas imports arrived¹
- GAS TRANSMISSION NETWORK TARIFFS ARE TRANSPARENT - MAIN GAS SHIPPERS CENTRICA AND NATURGY WILL BUY CHEAPEST GAS
- INFRASTRUCTURE CAPACITY EXISTS TO EXPORT GAS TO THE UK
- IRELAND HAS NO GAS STORAGE TO EXPLOIT SEASONALLY-INFLUENCED GAS PRICES & CREATE SECURITY OF SUPPLY
Predator Oil & Gas Holdings PLC | Corporate Presentation | 29 |
Predator FSRU LNG project tolling structure
Based on send-out of up to 300 mm cfgpd & annual capacity of up to 109 BCF
LNG "KINSALE" ASSETS (Predator LNG Ireland Ltd. - LNG Licence Holder)
Leased FSRU vessel | Leased Mooring System | Pipeline tariff based on |
and subsea manifold tie-in | gas throughput | |
to 24" pipeline to shore |
Onshore gas terminal and Entry
Point to Gas Networks Ireland gas grid. Terminal tariff based on operating costs for gas throughput
- LNG KINSALE ASSETS provide a service for a fee - market value to the upstream less the fee
Capacity Fee net Predator gross revenues estimated at up to £10 million annually for typically a minimum project life of 15 years
- LNG KINSALE ASSETS are owned separately from upstream
- Gas and LNG remain the property of upstream until sold
- LNG KINSALE ASSETS under separate tax regime from upstream
¹ Predator management estimate 2020
Predator Oil & Gas Holdings PLC | Corporate Presentation | 30 |
Predator FSRU LNG project schedule
Predator Oil & Gas Holdings PLC | Corporate Presentation | 31 |
Corrib South - Gas storage opportunity adjacent to infrastructure
Location - Atlantic Margin
- Part-Bocks18/24(p), 18/25(p), 18/29(p) & 18/30(p) cover 302 Km² adjacent to Corrib gas field
- Water depth 1,100 feet
- Corrib gas field reservoir target at similar depths
- Low geological risk - compelling similarity with Corrib Field
- 18 km. tie-back to Corrib gas field
- CPR gives 905 BCF gross recoverable resources for P10 Case
SLR Consulting 2020 CPR
- Gas storage opportunity with cushion gas potential
Corrib field in decline - infrastructure may become stranded asset
Current Equity, Partners & Terms
- Predator Oil and Gas Ventures Ltd (Operator 50%)
- Partners: Theseus Ltd (50%)
- Subject to award of successor authorisation - 3-year term
- One of the very few licences to potentially survive a fossil fuel exploration ban
- Predator & Theseus seeking a partner for 200 km² 3D Seismic to better define P10 Closure for well planning
- Followed by a non-commitment well, if partnership elects at their sole discretion to drill early
Predator (Operator)
Corrib South
Source: PAD Concession Map 2018
Predator Oil & Gas Holdings PLC | Corporate Presentation | 32 |
CONFIDENTIAL
CORRIB SOUTH - A Low Risk Gas Prospect Adjacent to a World Class Gas Field
CORRIB GAS FIELD
G a s
INTEGRITY CHECK LIST
- Compelling geological similarities
- Covered by the same 3D seismic survey that found Corrib gas field
- Reservoir target is the Triassic Sherwood Sandstone
- GIIP up to 1,131 BCF
- Depth to top reservoir is 3,657 metres TVD SS - Water Depth 350 metres
- Reservoir 200 to 400 metres thick
- High net-to-gross
- Average porosity 8%
- Faulted 4-way dip closure (Mercia Halite Seal)
- Intra-closurecross-fault seals robust based on Corrib gas field analogue
- Carboniferous Westphalian coals are a mature source rock
- Migration and dry gas charge demonstrated by Corrib gas field
- Permo-Triassicfaulting creates old trap charged in Late Jurassic
- Jurassic extensional faulting detaches on Mercia salt
- Additional pre-Zechstein reservoir potential (Rotliegend/Westphalian)
- Four-waydip closure
- Potential reservoirs sealed by Zechstein salt
Predator Oil & Gas Holdings PLC | Corporate Presentation | 33 |
CORRIB SOUTH - Suitable as a gas storage facility
mm cfgpd
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 | 2037 | 2038 | 2039 | 2040 |
- Reservoirs ideal for gas storage
- Proven high production rates in Corrib gas field
- Compatible with high injection & withdrawal rates for commercial gas storage
- Cushion gas for gas storage operations retained by only producing required gas storage capacity gas initially to help fund storage development
- Corrib gas pipeline is a wasting asset
- Provides security of energy supply in accordance with EU standards
- Valuable asset in terms of commercial discussions with LNG suppliers & gas buyers
- Predator commercial model is for tolling & capacity fees for gas storage
- Cushion gas provides security for financing
- Potential farmin partners are those interested in infrastructure & storing regasified LNG in summer months to increase LNG market share
Predator Oil & Gas Holdings PLC | Corporate Presentation | 34 |
Ram Head - Gas storage opportunity adjacent to infrastructure
Location
- Part-Bocks49/13(p), 49/14(p), 49/15(p), 49/18(p), 49/19, 49/20 & 49/23(p) cover 799 Km² east of the Kinsale gas field
- Water depth 294 feet
- Prospective primarily for Middle - Upper Jurassic sandstone reservoirs
Marathon 1984 Dry Gas Discovery
Not Tested in 1984 - No Irish Gas Market & No Export Line to UK
Never Appraised
Current Equity & Partners
- Predator Oil and Gas Ventures Ltd (Operator 50%)
- Partners: Theseus Ltd (50%)
Successor Authorisation Applied For
- Last correspondence 8th June 2020 acknowledging receipt of financials
- Standard Exploration Licence applied for but as of 3 June 2020 seeking Lease Undertaking
- One of the very few licences to potentially survive a fossil fuel exploration ban
- Rationale is for a potential gas storage infrastructure asset for FSRU regassification of LNG with in-place cushion gas potential
- Year 1 desktop studies to refine storage market size and commercial terms
- Year 2 & 3 work programme 400 km² 3D Survey & re-enter or re-drill49/19-1 to validate gas deliverability & reservoir connectivity
- Kinsale platforms being decommissioned but landfall site at Inch & pipeline to shore could be maintained for further use
Inch Gas Terminal |
Licensing Option 16/30 |
Kinsale Gas Field |
Source: PAD Concession Map December 2016
Predator Oil & Gas Holdings PLC | Corporate Presentation | 35 | 1 |
RAM HEAD - Suitable as a gas storage facility
Gross prospective gas resources¹ 12% COS
P50 | 1,016 BCF |
P10 | 2,740 BCF |
Ireland's largest undeveloped gas discovery
- NuTech demonstrates reservoirs attractive for gas storage
- Compatible with high injection & withdrawal rates for gas storage
- Cushion gas for gas storage operations retained by only producing required gas storage capacity gas initially to help fund storage development
- Kinsale gas pipeline is seeking an inheritor
- Provides security of energy supply in accordance with EU standards
- Valuable asset in terms of commercial discussions with LNG suppliers & gas buyers
- Predator commercial model is for tolling & capacity fees for gas storage
- Cushion gas provides security for financing
- Potential farmin partners are those interested in infrastructure & storing regasified LNG in summer months to increase LNG market share
¹ SLR Consulting 2019 CPR & ² SLR Consulting 2020 CPR
Predator Oil & Gas Holdings PLC | Corporate Presentation | 36 |
H2 2020 - 2021 activities & value catalysts
Predator Oil & Gas Holdings PLC | Corporate Presentation | 37 | |
Appendix
Predator Oil & Gas Holdings PLC | Corporate Presentation | 38 |
Board of Directors & Experienced Management Team
Paul Griffiths, Chief Executive Officer
- Extensive North Africa, Ireland & South America experience
- Strong in-house technical capabilities
- exploration, production, facilities engineering
- Experienced JV management & disciplined financial
- Substantial capital markets experience
- Demonstrated organic & inorganic growth
A professional geoscientist with 43 years experience including with the Libyan National Oil Corporation and Gulf Oil, and as CEO of both Island Oil & Gas plc and Fastnet Oil & Gas plc. Paul has managed 2D and 3D seismic acquisition and processing projects onshore and offshore, drilling and testing programmes, both onshore and offshore, and geological and reservoir simulation desk top studies. Significant experience of licence acquisitions, farm-ins,farm-outs, gas marketing and gas sales contracts and negotiations with government agencies. In 2006, Paul created and led the team that drilled the first exploration well offshore southeast Ireland in 16 years. In 2008 he managed the plan of development for the Amstel Field in the Netherlands and in 2014 he managed the Tendrara Gas Field re-evaluation prior to a successful appraisal drilling programme by Sound Energy. He is a geology graduate of the Royal School of Mines (London) and an Associate of the Royal School of Mines.
Ron Pilbeam, Project Development Director
Over 40 years' technical and commercial experience in energy-related E&P activities. Ron has worked with Parsons Brinckerhoff in the United States, the Caribbean and Brazil, United Technologies in Brazil and was associated with Unigas International both in Brazil and South Africa. Has managed projects in oil and gas, shipping, gas-to-liquids, offshore LNG, onshore petrochemical plant, gas storage and gas handling, pipelines and terminals. Considerable international experience in working with government, industry and commerce to achieve often challenging objectives. A British national, Ron is an engineering graduate of King's College (London), a Licenced Professional Engineer (Canada) and an Associate Member of the Institute of Civil Engineers (UK).
Dr Stephen Staley, Non Executive Chairman
34 years of wide-ranging management, technical and commercial experience in the international oil, gas and power sectors. He was the CEO, and a director and co-founder, of Upland Resources Limited, a London-listed (Standard Listing) oil & gas company with assets onshore UK. He is also a non-executive director of 88 Energy Limited, an oil & gas company with assets onshore Alaska having a dual listing on the ASX and AIM. Dr Staley co-founded and brought to the AIM market both Fastnet Oil & Gas plc (where he was the founding CEO) and Independent Resources plc (where he was the founding Managing Director). He was also both a technical consultant to, and non-executive director of, Cove Energy plc - the highly successful East Africa focused explorer that went from having a market capitalisation of £2 million in mid-2009 to being sold to PTTP for £1.2 billion in less than three years. He has worked for Cinergy Corp., Conoco and BP.
Louis Castro, Non‐Executive Director
Louis Castro has over 30 years' experience in investment banking and broking both in the UK and overseas. Most recently he was the Chief Financial Officer at Eland Oil & Gas, an AIM quoted company recently sold to Seplat Petroleum for £382m. Previously he was Chief Executive of Northland Capital Partners in London and before this was Head of Corporate Finance at Matrix Corporate Capital and at Insinger de Beaufort. He has worked in corporate finance and the capital markets in diverse geographic areas from the UK to the Far east, South America and Africa, including the execution of complex M & A transactions from initiation through due diligence to negotiating and financing.
He started his career by qualifying as a Chartered Accountant with Coopers & Lybrand (now PWC). Louis is currently the Chairman of Orosur Mining Inc. , and a non- executive director at Stanley Gibbons Group plc and Tekcapital plc, all quoted on the AIM market.
Louis graduated from the University of Birmingham with a double degree in Engineering & Economics; completed a post graduate course in Production Engineering at Cambridge University and is a Fellow of the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England & Wales.
Predator Oil & Gas Holdings PLC | Corporate Presentation | 39 |
Highlights of Financial Results for 2019
- Loss from operations of £1.279 million (2018: Loss of £0.792 million)
- Cash balance at period end of 2019 £0.110 million (2018: £0.973 million)
- Raised £1.5 million through the issue of a convertible loan note ("Loan Notes") to Arato Global Opportunities LLC ("Arato") to facilitate signing of the Guercif PA
- Issued warrants to subscribe for 4,083,333 Ordinary Shares in the Company at an exercise price of 12p per share to Arato and Novum Securities
- Reduced principal outstanding on the Loan Notes by £485,000 through the issue to Arato of 8,035,019 ordinary shares, representing an average price of £0.0603 per share
H1 2020
• Placing of 89,000,000 shares at 4 pence per share raised £3.56 million before expenses
- Placing of 22,438,842 shares at 2 pence per share raised £0.448 million before expenses
- Settlement in full of outstanding Arato Convertible Loan Notes (£0.746 million before expenses)
- Restricted cash (Moroccan bank guarantee) £1.181 million (exchange rate US$1.27)
Outlook
- Good liquidity
- Discipline exercised on capital expenditures
- Funded for current capital commitments
- Forecast production revenues from CO2 EOR in Trinidad
- Retained undiluted high equity positions in the Group' assets and demonstrated material risk-reward valuation metrics
- Potential for farm down & M & A transactions given the advanced stage of development of the Company's three separate core businesses
- Businesses are ring-fenced in separate subsidiary companies
Predator Oil & Gas Holdings PLC | Corporate Presentation | 40 |
Significant shareholders
Shareholder | Percentage Holdings¹ |
Paul Griffiths (direct & indirect) | 19.56 |
Hargreaves Lansdown (Nominees) Ltd 15942 | 9.32 |
Jim Nominees Ltd | 8.0 |
Hargreaves Lansdown (Nominees) Ltd HLNOM | 5.52 |
Interactive Investor Services Nominees Ltd | 4.82 |
The Bank of New York (Nominees) Ltd | 4.78 |
Hargreaves Lansdown (Nominees) Ltd VRA | 4.61 |
Pershing Nominees Ltd | 4.16 |
Vidacos Nominees Ltd | 3.85 |
Ronald Pilbeam | 3.16 |
Interactive Investor Services Nominees Ltd SMKTNOMS | 3.0 |
¹ As at 28/7/2020
Predator Oil & Gas Holdings PLC | Corporate Presentation | 41 |
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Predator Oil & Gas Holdings plc published this content on 30 July 2020 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 30 July 2020 08:50:18 UTC