Alumina markets appear to be near a trough, as Ord Minnett notes prices are well within the cost curve. However, current oversupply and the likelihood of further smelter curtailments could mean the situation requires multiple years to recover.

Alcoa predicts global aluminium consumption will grow 1.4-2.4% in 2020 and a market surplus will persist. Ord Minnett maintains a Lighten rating and raises the target to $2.00 from $1.90.

Sector: Materials.

Target price is $2.00.Current Price is $2.26. Difference: ($0.26) - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If AWC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately -13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

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