BMO Global Metals and Mining Conference
TSX:ALS | OTCQX:ATUSF
February 2020
Forward Looking Statements
This document includes certain statements that constitute "forward‐looking statements" and "forward-lookinginformation" within the meaning of applicable securities laws (collectively, "forward‐looking statements"). Forward-looking statements include statements regarding Altius Minerals Corporation's ("Altius") intent, or the beliefs or current expectations of Altius' officers and directors. Such forward-looking statements are typically
identified by words such as "believe", "anticipate", "estimate", "project", "intend", "expect", "may", "will", "plan", "should", "would", "contemplate",
"possible", "attempts", "seeks" and similar expressions. Forward‐looking statements may relate to future outlook and anticipated events or results.
By their very nature, forward‐looking statements involve numerous assumptions, inherent risks and uncertainties, both general and specific, and the risk that predictions and other forward‐looking statements will not prove to be accurate. Do not unduly rely on forward‐looking statements, as a number of important factors, many of which are beyond Altius' control, could cause actual results to differ materially from the estimates and intentions expressed in such forward‐looking statements.
Forward‐looking statements speak only as of the date those statements are made. Except as required by applicable law, Altius does not assume any obligation to update, or to publicly announce the results of any change to, any forward‐looking statement contained herein to reflect actual results, future events or developments, changes in assumptions or changes in other factors affecting the forward‐looking statements.
TSX:ALS | OTCQX:ATUSF
Growth Track Record
Royalty Revenue
$67M | $78M | ||||
$33M | $47M | ||||
$6M | $28M | ||||
FY 2014 | FY 2015 | FY 2016 | FY 2017 | 2018 | 2019 |
Royalty Revenue Per Share
$1.56 | $1.84 | ||||
$0.88 | $0.83 | $1.08 | |||
$0.22 | |||||
FY 2014 | FY 2015 | FY 2016 | FY 2017 | 2018 | 2019 |
80% EBITDA Margin | $0.48 to $1.44 | 5yr Growth in | |
EBITDA/Share | |||
TSX:ALS | OTCQX:ATUSF
3
Royalty Growth Pipeline
Organic (Free) Mine
Royalty Growth
Renewable Royalty
Business Gaining
Momentum
Strong operating margins and long resource lives motivating multiple new build and expansion investments by operators = free royalty growth
New renewable energy royalty business growing fast as electricity generation transition accelerates and sector begins to recognize benefits of royalty finance offering
Ramping Up | Building | Financing | Expansion Study | Resource Stage | Discovery | |||
and Development | ||||||||
Completed Potash | New Mines in | Renewable Development | Expansion of Existing | New Build Studies | 168,000 metres of | |||
Expansions | Construction | Portfolio | Assets | drilling in 2020 | ||||
Rocanville | 60+ Exploration | |||||||
Voisey's Underground | Chapada | Stage Royalties | ||||||
Cory | ||||||||
Allan | (Ni-Co-Cu) | Expansion (Cu) |
Vanscoy
2.5 GW Portfolio
Gunnison (Copper)
Esterhazy
4
TSX:ALS | OTCQX:ATUSF 4
PG Business Growth - Royalty Creation At Negative Cost
Altius generates mineral exploration projects for sale in | 57 | |
exchange for royalties and equity positions | ||
Projects | ||
Junior Equity Portfolio Growth | ||
$17M | PG Net | |||
Monetizations | ||||
$17M | ||||
$11M | $54M | $54M | ||
$22M | $33M | |||
-$3M | -$6M | st | ||
April 2016 | April 2017 | December | December | 1 |
2018 | 2019 |
Converted to new royalties and junior equities since 2016 market bottom
Positive cash generation in 2019
Gunnison starting up to mark first
PG created royalty to reach
production stage
Proven Equity/Royalty Investment Strategy Allows Creation of New Pipeline Royalties at Negative Cost and Provides Cash for 3rd Party Royalty Acquisitions
TSX:ALS | OTCQX:ATUSF
5
Renewables Transition Momentum Growth
Megatrends driving increased electricity demand:
Electrification trends (e.g. transportation about to shift to EV) will cause demand for electricity to grow and gain market share relative to other sources of consumer energy such as fossil fuels
EV Battery $ Cost / kWh
$ Cost Parity with Internal Combustion Engine
Levelized Cost of Energy Comparison
Past the tipping point:
Within the electricity sector, renewable energy has
become the cheapest form of new generation
ESG Going Mainstream:
Lower costs, higher efficiencies and underlying demand growth coupled with a surge in ESG investment mandates creating a massive tailwind for renewable energy investments
Source: "Electrifying Insights: How Automakers can Drive Electrified Vehicle Sales | TSX:ALS | OTCQX:ATUSF |
and Profitability," McKinsey - January 2017 , Lazard's Levelized Cost of | |
6 |
Energy Analysis - Version 13.0 (November 2019), US SIF Foundation | 6 |
Renewable Royalty Growth -Tri Global Energy Investment
- Renewable energy royalties are being generated ahead of schedule - project sales in first year represent more than half that required for full royalty vesting threshold - with remainder expected in 2020
- First royalty project, Canyon Wind (360 MW - TX), sold in October 2019 to private equity firm with operations expected to begin in H2 2021
- Woodford Wind (300+ MW - IL) sold to Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners in December 2019 with commercial production anticipated in late 2021
- TGE development pipeline has increased to over 2,500 MW (even after accounting for the 660+ MW project sales to date)
Source Company Reports
7
TSX:ALS | OTCQX:ATUSF 7
Diversity
15 Producing Royalties | Low Jurisdictional Risk | |
Investment Grade Operators | Royalty vs. Stream Dominated | |
Diversified Portfolio
Steel Making
Coal 4%
Premium
Iron Ore 20%
Electricity
Generation (Coal) 14%
Zinc 3%
Copper 37%
2019
Commodity
Revenue
Battery Metals | |
Potash 19% | (Ni-Li-Co) 2% |
8 |
TSX:ALS | OTCQX:ATUSF
8
Sustainability
Portfolio Aligned with Global Sustainability Trends
Macro-Trend
Fossil Fuel to Clean Energy
Conversion
Transportation Electrification
Soil Quality/Agricultural Yield
Improvements
Lower Emission Steel Making
Altius
Royalty Exposure
Coal to Renewables
Cu, Co, Ni, Li
Potash
Clean Iron Ore
Products
Subsidiary Altius Renewable Royalties Corp. ("ARR") reinvesting royalty based capital to advance more than 23 GW of potential new renewable energy projects - as our 5 GW coal generation exposure phases out to zero
Copper, which benefits more than any other metal from EV and renewable transitions, is Altius's largest royalty exposure. Royalty exposure to battery metals - Nickel, Cobalt and Lithium is growing
Altius's potash fertilizer royalties relate to a portfolio of top-tier Canadian mines that are ramping up into pre-built capacity expansions as sustainable food production needs increase
Royalty from IOC relates to high iron / low impurity concentrates and pellets that require less metallurgical coal usage in steel plants
Industry leading fundamental business growth from assets that enable the world to meet its sustainability objectives
9
TSX:ALS | OTCQX:ATUSF 9
Longevity
85+ Year Revenue Weighted Life
Mine lives calculated based on current mineral inventory and 2018 throughput. Coal asset lives denote the expected plant closure and not based on reserves. The 2018 revenue weighted average mine life is based on remaining reserves inclusive of MI resources and throughput capacity.
TSX:ALS | OTCQX:ATUSF
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Durability
Operator | Mine | Commodity | Spot Price | Operating Margin |
Benchmark | ||||
Lundin | Chapada | Copper | $2.59 | 114% |
Nutrien | All Operations | Potash | $265 | 223% |
Mosaic | All Operations | Potash | $265 | 258% |
Vale | Voisey's Bay | Nickel | $6.01 | 107% |
Rio Tinto | IOC | Fe Concentrate | $95 | 111% |
Rio Tinto | IOC | Fe Pellet | $135 | 108% |
Excelsior | Gunnison | Copper | $2.59 | 198% |
Hudbay | Manitoba Operations | Copper | $2.59 | 717% |
Notes:
- All amounts USD. Spot as at February 22, 2020. Spot Potash is FOB Midwest.
- Chapada margin calculated using Lundin's guidance of 2020 C1 cash costs of copper per pound (NI43-101 report October 10, 2019) after precious metal by-product credits. Chapada cash costs do not include the effects of copper stream agreements which will be a component of the copper revenue and will impact realized revenue per pound.
- Nutrien and Mosaic per tonne margins calculated by taking FOB Midwest Spot over Cost of Product Manufactured. COPM = Potash COGS for the 2019 excluding depreciation and amortization expense and inventory and other adjustments divided by the production tonnes for the period. For Mosaic, we used the 2019 four quarter average actuals cash costs of production (excluding brine) - MOP ($/tonne)
- Voisey's Bay margin calculation using SNL Modeled Cost Curve for Total Cash Cost per pound of nickel net of by-product credits.
- IOC margin based on Altius modeled $45/t cash costs for concentrate and $65/t cash costs for pellet.
- Gunnison is expected to be in commercial production in 2020. Total cash cost pe pound of copper is derived from the Base Case of the Feasibility Study dated January 16, 2017
- Manitoba Operations margin calculated using Hudbay's annual actuals year ended December 31, 2019. Cash cost per pound of copper produced, net of by-product credits.
TSX:ALS | OTCQX:11 ATUSF
11
Capital Structure
6x
5x
4x
3x
2x
1x
2014
TSX: ALS | OTCQX: ATUSF | Research Coverage | ||
Issued Common Shares | 42.1 million | Richard Gray | |
Fairfax Preferred Securities | 10.0 million ($100 mm) | Craig Hutchison | |
Basic Market Capitalization | $455 million | ||
Brian MacArthur | |||
Annual Dividend | $0.20 per share | ||
Carey MacRury | |||
Outstanding Debt | $109 million | ||
Jacques Wortman | |||
Cash and Public Equity Holdings† | $169 million | ||
Available Under Credit Revolver† | $85 million | Orest Wowkodaw |
Leverage Ratio | Returns of Capital | ||||||||||||
6x | |||||||||||||
5x | 4.9x | ||||||||||||
Share buy back | |||||||||||||
4x | $5M | Share buy back | |||||||||||
Share buy back | |||||||||||||
$9M | |||||||||||||
$2M | |||||||||||||
3x | Share buy back | ||||||||||||
$2M | |||||||||||||
2x | |||||||||||||
1x | 1.3x | Dividends | Dividends | Dividends | |||||||||
Dividends | $8M | ||||||||||||
Dividends | $7M | $7M | |||||||||||
$5M | |||||||||||||
$3M | |||||||||||||
x | |||||||||||||
2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | |||
Net Debt to EBITDA | |||||||||||||
Capital table values, return of capital and net debt to EBITDA numbers as of Dec 31 2019 except for market cap as of Feb 20 2020. Cash and | TSX:ALS | OTCQX:ATUSF | ||||||||||||
public equity holdings includes $22 million cash + $93 million LIORC equity value + $54.1 million project generation equity values | |||||||||||||
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Valuation
P/NAV | EV/EBITDA (2020E) | P/CF (2020E) | |||||||||||||||||||
2.4x | 27.2x | 29.6x | |||||||||||||||||||
2.0x | 19.5x | ||||||||||||||||||||
1.5x | 1.7x | 16.8x | 18.0x | 18.2x | 18.0x | 19.6x | 20.1x | 20.6x | |||||||||||||
0.9x | 1.1x | 10.2x | 11.2x | ||||||||||||||||||
OR SSL WPM RGLD FNV | SSL | RGLD | OR WPM FNV | OR SSL | WPM RGLD FNV |
Potential Re-rate Catalysts
- Increased recognition of sector leading per share business growth metrics, longest duration assets, decreasing leverage and increasing returns of capital
- New renewables royalty investment announcements
- Coal to renewables strategy execution eliminates current negative impact on investment suitability perception
- Broader portfolio sustainability attributes become recognized by ESG focused investors
- Announcements by mine operators of resource growth and mine expansion (e.g. Chapada)
Source S&P Capital IQ, Company Reports. February 14, 2020
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TSX:ALS | OTCQX:ATUSF 13
Thank You
PRODUCING
ROYALTIES
DEVELOPMENT
ROYALTIES
PROJECT GENERATION
PROJECT
RENEWABLE ENERGY
PORTFOLIO
Flora Wood | |
CONTACT | Director, Investor Relations |
INFORMATION | Phone: (416)346-9020 |
14 | Email: Flora@altiusminerals.com |
TSX:ALS | OTCQX:ATUSF |
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Disclaimer
Altius Minerals Corporation published this content on 25 February 2020 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 25 February 2020 19:42:01 UTC