Second quarter 2020 financial results and strategy presentation
1
Craig Marshall
SVP Investor Relations
2
Cautionary statement
Forward-looking statements - cautionary statement
In order to utilize the 'safe harbor' provisions of the United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 (the 'PSLRA') and the general doctrine of cautionary statements, BP is providing the following cautionary statement: The discussion in this results announcement contains certain forecasts, projections and forward-looking statements - that is, statements related to future, not past events and circumstances - with respect to the financial condition, results of operations and businesses of BP and certain of the plans and objectives of BP with respect to these items. These statements may generally, but not always, be identified by the use of words such as 'will', 'expects', 'is expected to', 'aims', 'should', 'may', 'objective', 'is likely to', 'intends', 'believes', 'anticipates', 'plans', 'we see', 'focus on' or similar expressions.
In particular, the following, among other statements, are all forward looking in nature: expectations regarding price assumptions, including lowering Brent to an average of around $55 per barrel and Henry Hub to an average of $2.90 per million BTU, in 2020 real terms, and increasing BP's carbon price; expectations regarding Upstream reported and underlying production in the third quarter and full year 2020; expectations regarding demand for BP's products in the Upstream and Downstream; expectations regarding global GDP and oil and gas demand; expectations regarding the Downstream refining margins and utilisation; expectations regarding BP's organic capital expenditure, DD&A, organic free cash flow and operating cash flow, underlying production in 2025, Rosneft contribution and Gulf of Mexico oil spill payments; plans and expectation regarding the reduction of around 10,000 jobs and the amount and timing of associated restructuring charges; expectations regarding 2020 major project start-ups, including for Ghazeer project to start up in 2020; BP's coherent approach to capital allocation, including statements regarding funding a resilient dividend, strengthening the balance sheet, deleveraging to $35 billion net debt and maintaining a strong investment grade credit rating, allocating sufficient capital to advance the energy transition strategy, investing in the resilient hydrocarbons business to generate sustainable cash flow, committing to return at least 60% of surplus cash as buybacks after having reached $35 billion net debt and subject to maintaining a strong investment grade credit rating, keeping the cash cover ratio within a 30-40% range across the cycle, rebalancing sources and uses of cash, on average over 2021-2025 to a balance point of around $40/bbl Brent, $3/mmBTU Henry Hub and $11/bbl BP refining marker margin, targeting $25 billion of divestment proceeds between the second half of 2020 and 2025 (including proceeds from the $5 billion petrochemicals divestment), evolving the long-term capital structure and hurdle rates; BP's 2021-25 business plan, including statements regarding maintaining strict discipline on capital spending in a range of $14-16 billion to 2025 and within $13-15 billion range until net debt has been reduced to $35 billion (including $9 billion allocated to resilient and focused hydrocarbons and $4-5 billion rising to $5-7 billion on low carbon electricity, energy, convenience and mobility), delivering $2.5 billion of cash cost reductions by end of 2021 and $3-4 billion of total cash cost reductions by 2023; BP's plans to scale the low-carbon electricity and energy businesses, including statements regarding developing around 20GW of renewables capacity by 2025 and 50GW by 2030, the strategic partnership with Lightsource BP developing 10GW of renewables capacity by 2023, the existing U.S. onshore wind portfolio, having 350TWh of traded electricity by 2025 and 500TWh by 2030, growing the LNG portfolio by almost 70% to 25Mtpa by 2025 and to around 30Mtpa by 2030 with 25Mtpa of LNG sales by 2030 and increasing bioenergy production to 50,000 b/d by 2025 and 100,000 b/d by 2030, increasing to 10% hydrogen share in core markets by 2030, to progress the hydrogen business in Australia and for CCUS to enable industrial decarbonisation; BP's plans to transform the convenience and mobility offer, including statements regarding earnings and growth, aiming to increase customer touchpoints to more than 15 million by 2025 and to more than 20 million by 2030, growing the network of BP-branded retail sites in growth markets to more than 7,000 by 2025 and more than 8,000 by 2030, growing Castrol revenue globally to $7.5 billion in 2025 and more than 130 million end-users by 2030, growing the network of strategic convenience sites to 2,300 by 2025 and more than 3,000 by 2030, expanding the existing EV network to more than 25,000 charge points by 2025 and more than 70,000 by 2030 and growing the share of margin from convenience and electrification to around 35% by 2025 and 50% by 2030; BP's plans to focus and maximise value from resilient and focused hydrocarbons, including statements regarding reaching 900mboed of production by end-2021,start-up of major projects through 2023+, maintaining flat underlying production and lowering headline Upstream production to around 2mmboed by 2025 and around 1.5mmboed by 2030, lowering unit production costs to around $6/boe by 2025, increasing BP operated plant reliability to 96% by 2025 and 2030, lower refining throughput to less than 1.5mmbl/d by 2025 and less than 1.2mmbl/d by 2030, increasing BP operated refining availability to 96% by 2025 and lowering capital expenditure to around $9 billion by 2025; BP's 2021-25 business plan outcomes, including statements regarding delivering 5-6% annual EBIDA growth and 7-9% in EBIDA per share growth reflecting portfolio high-grading and share buybacks, improving ROACE to 12-14% in 2025 and ROACE ranges by 2030; BP's beliefs on the energy transition, including statements regarding the trend towards renewables, customers redefining mobility and convenience, oil and gas as part of the energy mix, development of energy systems, energy solutions of countries, cities and industries, and digital and innovation; and BP's new ambition to be a net zero company by 2050 or sooner including statements regarding its aims by 2030 for emissions reductions across operations, emissions from the carbon content of its oil and gas production, a 15% cut in the carbon intensity of products BP sells, methane measurement at major oil and gas processing sites by 2023 and subsequent reduction of methane intensity of operations, and aims to increase the proportion and amount of investment into non-oil and gas businesses over time; and expectations regarding shifts in energy markets.
By their nature, forward-looking statements involve risk and uncertainty because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that will or may occur in the future and are outside the control of BP. Actual results may differ materially from those expressed in such statements, depending on a variety of factors, including: the extent and duration of the impact of current market conditions including the significant drop in the oil price, the impact of COVID-19, overall global economic and business conditions impacting our business and demand for our products as well as the specific factors identified in the discussions accompanying such forward-looking statements; changes in consumer preferences and societal expectations; the pace of development and adoption of alternative energy solutions; the receipt of relevant third party and/or regulatory approvals; the timing and level of maintenance and/or turnaround activity; the timing and volume of refinery additions and outages; the timing of bringing new fields onstream; the timing, quantum and nature of certain acquisitions and divestments; future levels of industry product supply, demand and pricing, including supply growth in North America; OPEC quota restrictions; PSA and TSC effects; operational and safety problems; potential lapses in product quality; economic and financial market conditions generally or in various countries and regions; political stability and economic growth in relevant areas of the world; changes in laws and governmental regulations; regulatory or legal actions including the types of enforcement action pursued and the nature of remedies sought or imposed; the actions of prosecutors, regulatory authorities and courts; delays in the processes for resolving claims; amounts ultimately payable and timing of payments relating to the Gulf of Mexico oil spill; exchange rate fluctuations; development and use of new technology; recruitment and retention of a skilled workforce; the success or otherwise of partnering; the actions of competitors, trading partners, contractors, subcontractors, creditors, rating agencies and others; our access to future credit resources; business disruption and crisis management; the impact on our reputation of ethical misconduct and non-compliance with regulatory obligations; trading losses; major uninsured losses; decisions by Rosneft's management and board of directors; the actions of contractors; natural disasters and adverse weather conditions; changes in public expectations and other changes to business conditions; wars and acts of terrorism; cyber-attacks or sabotage; and other factors discussed elsewhere in this report, and under "Risk factors" in BP Annual Report and Form 20-F 2019 as filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission.
Reconciliations to GAAP - This presentation also contains financial information which is not presented in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP). A quantitative reconciliation of this information to the most directly comparable financial measure calculated and presented in accordance with GAAP can be found on our website at www.bp.com.
Tables and projections in this presentation are BP projections unless otherwise stated.
August 2020 | 3 |
Helge Lund
Chairman
4
Bernard Looney
CEO
6
What we've announced - Feb 12
Purpose | Trade | |
association | ||
review | ||
Ambition | Aims | Pandemic |
response | ||
What's to come - bp week | Strategic | ||
deepdives | |||
Reinventing | |||
bp | |||
What we've done since | Sustainability | ||
framework | |||
Petrochemicals | Energy | ||
divestment | outlook | ||
Long-term | announced | ||
price | |||
assumptions | Alaska | ||
upstream |
Biodiversity | Human | divestment |
closed | ||
rights policy | ||
position | ||
Hybrid | ||
Organisational | bond | |
change |
8
Murray Auchincloss
CFO
11
Environment
Commodity prices $/bbl / $/mmbtu
Brent | Brent1 | RMM2 | Henry Hub1 | |||
80 |
60
40
20
0
Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul |
RMM / | ||
Henry Hub21 | ▪ 2Q average Brent oil price | |
40% lower than 1Q | ||
18 | ||
15 ▪ BP's 2Q average RMM 33% lower than 1Q
12
9 | ▪ 2Q US refinery utilisation |
~70%, ~19% lower y-o-y | |
6
- 2Q average Henry Hub gas
3 price lowest in 25 years
0
(1) | Source: Platts | All data 1 January 2020 to 31 July 2020 | 12 |
(2) | Refining Marker Margin (RMM) based on BP's portfolio |
Long-term price assumptions and exploration review
80 | Brent assumption $/bbl real(2020) |
60 |
40
20
0
2020 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 |
3
2
1
0
2020 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 |
- Impairment charges exclusive of equity accounted assets
Impact on 2Q 2020 results
- $16.8bn reported loss
- $6.7bn on an underlying RC basis
- $11.8bn net impairment1 charges, $8.5bn post tax
- $11.1bn in Upstream1
- $0.7bn in Downstream
- $9.6bn pre-tax exploration write offs, $8.1bn post tax
- $7.7bn is reflected in the underlying result, $6.5bn post tax
13
2Q 2020 underlying results summary
$bn | 2Q19 | 1Q20 | 2Q20 | |
Underlying replacement cost profit | 2.8 | 0.8 | (6.7) | |
Underlying operating cash flow1 | 8.2 | 1.2 | 4.8 | |
Underlying RCPBIT2 | ||||
Upstream | 3.4 | 1.9 | (8.5) | |
Downstream | 1.4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | |
Rosneft3 | 0.6 | (0.0) | (0.1) | |
Other businesses and corporate | (0.3) | (0.6) | (0.3) | |
Underlying earnings per share (cents) | 13.8 | 3.9 | (33.0) | |
Dividend paid per share (cents) | 10.25 | 10.50 | 10.50 | |
Dividend declared per share (cents) | 10.25 | 10.50 | 5.25 | |
2Q 2020 vs 1Q 2020
- $6.5bn post-tax exploration write-offs
- Lower oil and gas realisations
- Weaker refining margins
- Demand destruction in Downstream
- Partially offset by exceptionally strong oil trading
- Underlying operating cash flow is net cash provided by/(used in) operating activities excluding post-tax Gulf of Mexico oil spill payments
- Replacement cost profit before interest and tax (RCPBIT), adjusted for non-operating items and fair value accounting effects
(3) | BP estimate of Rosneft earnings after interest, tax and minority interest | 14 |
Cash flow and balance sheet
1H 2020 cash inflows/outflows $bn
16
Share buybacks
Lease payments4
12
Working capital build | Capex |
8
Disposals2
4
Dividends3
Underlying operating
cash flow1
Gulf of Mexico oil spill
0
- Cash outflow5 of $6.5bn
- ~$12bn hybrid bond issue
- Net Debt falls to $40.9bn
- Gearing6 falls to 37.7%
- Underlying operating cash flow is net cash provided by/(used in) operating activities excluding post-tax Gulf of Mexico oil spill payments
(2) | Divestments and other proceeds | (3) Cash dividends paid | (4) Lease liability payments | |
(5) | Cash outflow = underlying operating cash flow plus disposal proceeds less Gulf of Mexico oil spill payments, dividend payments, capex, lease payments and share buybacks | 15 | ||
(6) | Gearing including leases | |||
2020 guidance
Third quarter
Upstream | Lower reported production expected, reflecting: |
▪ Divestment of the Alaska business
▪ Price impacts on entitlement volumes
Downstream ▪ Higher product demand, albeit still significantly
below last year's levels
▪ Continued significant pressure on industry
refining margins
(1) Underlying production. The actual reported number will depend on divestments, OPEC quotas, and other factors
Full year | ||||
Upstream production | Lower | |||
excluding Rosneft | than 20191 | |||
Organic capital | ~$12bn | |||
expenditure | ||||
DD&A | ~10% lower | |||
than 2019 | ||||
Gulf of Mexico oil | ~$1.5bn | |||
spill payments | ||||
OB&C2 underlying | ~$350m | |||
quarterly charge | ||||
(2) OB&C: Other businesses and corporate | 16 | |||
Bernard Looney
CEO
17
Our purpose | Our ambition |
Our aims
by 2050 or sooner and to help the world reach that goal
Five aims to help the world meet net zero
Aim
10
Aim
9
Aim
8
Aim
7
Aim
6
Aim
1
Aim
2
Aim
3
Aim
5Aim
4
Five aims to become a net zero company
18
an international oil company producing resources
an integrated energy company
delivering solutions for customers
19
Our strategy - an IEC delivering solutions for customers
Low carbon | Convenience | Resilient |
electricity | and mobility | and focused |
hydrocarbons | ||
and energy | ||
Integrating energy systems
Partnering with countries, cities and industries |
Driving digital and innovation |
A sustainability frame linking our purpose and
…will create a very different company in 2030
Aims | |||||||
2.5GW / 250TWh | Developed renewables and traded electricity1 | 50GW developed / 500TWh traded | |||||
22Kbd | Bioenergy | >100Kbd developed / 20% biojet market share | |||||
0.6 Mte in our operations | Hydrogen | 10% share in core markets | |||||
10m | Customer touchpoints per day | >20m | |||||
>7,500 | EV charging points | >70,000 | |||||
~2.6mmboed | Oil and gas production | ~1.5mmboed | |||||
~360Mte | Aim 2 emissions | ~235Mte | |||||
0 | Partnerships with cities and industry | 10-15 city partners 3 industry sectors | |||||
8.9% | ROACE2 | 12-14% |
(1) | Traded electricity may include electricity sourced from the grid | 21 |
(2) | ROACE: return on average capital employed as defined in bp's 2019 annual report | |
We are building off a rich heritage…
1921 - 1922 | 1922 - 1930 | 1930 - 1947 | 1947 - 1958 |
1958 - 1989 | 1989 - 1998 | 1998 - 2000 | 2000+ |
22
…and we are not starting from scratch…
SmartLog | |
Hydrogen export | |
project, Australia H2 | |
Low carbon electricity | Convenience |
and energy businesses | and mobility offer |
US onshore wind
Traded electricity
rides per year
coffees per year
Lightsource bp
presence in
energy management
services to
in the US
…underpinned by a coherent approach to capital allocation
1
2
3
4
5
Clear priorities
Resilient dividend
Strong balance
sheet
Investing at scale in the
energy transition
Investing to maximise
value in resilient
hydrocarbons
Buyback commitment1
(1) Buyback commitment: once net debt is reduced to $35bn and subject to maintaining a strong investment grade credit rating | 28 |
Getting to net zero by 2050 or sooner….
2025 | 2030 | 2050, or sooner | ||||
Targets | Aims | Aims | ||||
Aim | ||||||
1 | 20% | 30-35% | 100%1 | |||
Aim | ||||||
2 | 20% | 35-40% | 100%2 | |||
Aim | ||||||
3 | 5% | >15% | 50% | |||
Emissions reductions
Aim | Timeline to achieve | ||||||||
4 | Measurements in | 50% | |||||||
50% reduction to | |||||||||
place by 2023 | |||||||||
follow | |||||||||
Aim | |||||||||
5 | $3-4bn | ~$5bn | |||||||
(1) | Net zero, gross operated | (2) Net zero, | bp net equity, excludes Rosneft | ||||||
(3) | Includes: low carbon electricity, bio-energy, electrification, future mobility solutions, CCUS, Hydrogen (incl. mobility) & trading (low carbon) |
Low carbon
spend3
29
…and delivering on our new investor proposition
Resilient dividend
Share buybacks
EBIDA¹ per share growth
Growing returns
Investment in transition
Committed
distributions
Profitable
growth
Sustainable
value
- EBIDA: Underlying replacement cost profit before interest and tax, add back depreciation, depletion and amortization and exploration expenditure written-off (net of non-operating items),
less taxation on an underlying RC basis | 30 |
All anchored in a coherent frame
New strategy
and sustainability
frame
Purpose and core beliefs
Resilient financial
frame
for all stakeholders
Compelling
investor
proposition
31
Giulia Chierchia
EVP, strategy and sustainability
32
Anchored in a coherent frame
Purpose and core beliefs
New strategy
and sustainability
frame
for all stakeholders
Compelling
investor
proposition
Resilient financial
frame
33
Informed by energy transition scenarios
Share of primary energy demand
Non-fossil fuel | Fossil fuel | ||
Business-as-usual | Rapid | Net Zero | |
Continuing recent trends | Broadly consistent with 'Well below 2oC' | Broadly consistent with '1.5oC' |
Absolute growth | Absolute growth | Absolute growth |
vs. 2019 | vs. 2019 | vs. 2019 |
Source: 2050 scenarios - bp 2020 Energy Outlook (provisional) | 34 |
Our beliefs on the energy transition
The world will electrify, with renewables
a clear winner
Energy systems will become increasingly multi-technology,integrated and local
Customers. will
redefine mobility and convenience, driven by electrification, digital and fleets
Customers -
countries, cities,
industries and
corporates - will demand bespoke energy solutions
Oil and gas challenged;
but will remain part
of the energy mix
for decades
Driving digital and innovation
Source: 2050 scenarios - bp 2020 Energy Outlook (provisional) | 35 |
Our strategy - an IEC delivering solutions for customers
Low carbon | Convenience | Resilient and focused | |||
electricity and energy | and mobility | hydrocarbons | |||
▪ | Low carbon electricity | ▪ | Advancing growth | ▪ Continued rigour in safety | |
▪ | Integrated gas | markets | and operations | ||
▪ | Redefining convenience | ▪ | Driving emissions down | ||
▪ | Bio-energy | ||||
▪ | Next-gen mobility | ▪ | Focused upstream and | ||
▪ | Hydrogen and CCUS | refining portfolio |
Integrating energy systems
Partnering with countries, cities and industries
Driving digital and innovation
A sustainability frame linking our purpose and
bp 2030 aims - low carbon electricity and energy
Low carbon
electricity
- 50GW developed renewables
- Position across generation and customers
▪ 500TWh traded1
Hydrogen
and CCUS
- 10% hydrogen share in core markets
Integrated gas
- 25Mtpa customer sales
- >30Mtpa LNG portfolio
Bioenergy
▪ | >100Kbd produced |
and integrated across value | |
chain | |
▪ 20% biojet market share | |
▪ | Cost advantaged platforms |
▪ Net Zero Teesside
Integrated low carbon portfolio
across Brazil |
- Traded electricity may include electricity sourced from the grid
37
bp 2030 aims - convenience and mobility
Advancing growth markets
>8,000 sites in growth markets
- Differentiated fuels and Castrol lubricants
- Leverage >130m Castrol end users
- Enable transition to low carbon mobility
Redefining | Next-gen | ||
convenience | mobility | ||
50% margin from convenience and electrification1 | |||
>3,000 strategic convenience sites | Differentiated customer offers | ||
▪ Market leading food service offers | ▪ | >70,000 EV charging points | |
▪ | Delivered convenience | ▪ | Consumer and fleet solutions |
▪ | Last-mile logistics | ▪ | >50 hydrogen refuelling sites |
Customer experience and loyalty enhanced by integrated fuels value chains and digital
(1) As a ratio of total consumer energy (retail fuels and electrification) and convenience margin (excludes equity accounted entities) | 38 |
bp 2030 aims - resilient and focused hydrocarbons
Continued rigour in
safety and operations
- Capital discipline and project delivery
- Operating efficiency
- >96% upstream plant reliability1 and refining availability1
Driving emissions
down
▪ >15Mte reduction in Aim 1 ▪ >125Mte reduction in Aim 2
▪ Reductions from electrification, energy efficiency, reduced flaring and portfolio
- Methane measurement by 2023 per
Aim 4
Focused upstream and refining portfolio
- Divest non-core assets
- ~1.5mmboed2 oil and gas production in the highest quality basins
- Strong platform in Russia through Rosneft
- ~1.2mmbbl/d refining throughput
- Top quartile refining margins
Unchanged HSSE goals: No accidents, no harm to people, no damage to the environment
(1) bp-operated | (2) bp net, excludes Rosneft | 39 |
Our distinctive sources of value creation
Integrating energy
systems
- Integration along value chains
- Integration across value chains
- Physical and virtual
- Develop integrated offers for customers
Partnering with countries, | Driving digital | ||
cities and industries | and innovation | ||
▪ | Focus on 10-15 cities and 3 | ▪ | Transform core operations, enabling |
industries | material efficiency improvements | ||
▪ | Transition pathways and jointly | ▪ | Extend customer access to energy, |
developed, bespoke solutions with | mobility and convenience | ||
partners | ▪ | Reduce carbon footprint in operations and | |
▪ | Dedicated origination team | products |
▪ Drive adjacencies via bp Ventures and
Launchpad
40
Financial outcomes from new strategy
Resilient hydrocarbons
Equity oil
Equity gas
Refining
Trading (oil and gas)
Low carbon electricity and energy
Low carbon electricity Integrated gas and power Bioenergy
CCUS Hydrogen Trading (low carbon)
Convenience and mobility
Fuels Convenience Lubes Electrification
Future mobility solutions Hydrogen (for mobility)
Other
Ventures
Launchpad
Annual capital expenditure $bn | Capital employed1 | $bn | 2030 ROACE2 |
15 14-16
12-14%
8-10%
15-20%
(1) | Excludes Rosneft and other centrally held group items | 41 |
(2) | ROACE as defined in BP Annual Report 2019 and as applied to each strategic focus area, the aggregation of which may not be the same as average ROACE for the bp group | |
Transition to an integrated energy company
Resilient base
Equity oil
Equity gas
Refining
Fuels
Lubes
Trading (oil, gas)
Transition
Low carbon
Low carbon electricity Bio-energy Electrification
Future mobility solutions
CCUS
Hydrogen (incl. mobility) Trading (low carbon)
Other transition Convenience Integrated gas and power Ventures
Launchpad
Annual capital expenditure $bn | Capital employed1 | $bn |
15 14-16
(1) Excludes Rosneft and other centrally held group items | 42 |
Murray Auchincloss
CFO
43
Anchored in a coherent frame
New strategy
and sustainability
frame
Purpose and core beliefs
Resilient financial
frame
for all stakeholders
Compelling
investor
proposition
44
Coherent approach to capital allocation
Clear priorities
Phase 1 | Phase 2 | |
1
2
3
4
5
Resilient dividend
of 5.25 cents per share1
per quarter
De-lever to $35bn
Low carbon2 and
convenience and mobility spend ~$4-6bn per year
Resilient hydrocarbons spend ~$9bn per year
Resilient dividend
of 5.25 cents per share1
per quarter
Strong investment grade
credit rating
Low carbon2 and
convenience and mobility spend ~$5-7bn per year
Resilient hydrocarbons spend ~$9bn per year
At least 60% of
surplus3 as buybacks4
(1) Intended to remain fixed at this level, subject to board discretion each quarter | (2) Low carbon electricity and energy | (3) | Surplus refers to surplus of sources of cash | |
including operating cash flow, JV loan repayments and divestment proceeds, over uses, including leases, Gulf of Mexico oil spill payments, hybrid servicing costs, dividend payments and | ||||
cash capital expenditure | (4) | At least 60% of surplus cash as buyback once net debt has reduced to $35bn and subject to maintaining a strong investment grade credit rating, as | 45 | |
defined in bp's Press Release dated 4th August 2020 |
Maintaining a strong investment grade credit rating
Clear objectives1
Net Debt $bnCash cover2Strong progress | ||||||||
$12bn hybrid | 30-40% across | ▪ | ~$12bn hybrid bond issue | |||||
the cycle | ||||||||
$35bn target | ▪ | $1.8bn 1H20 divestment proceeds | ||||||
Delivery underpinned | ||||||||
▪ 2021-25 cash balance point~$40/bbl3 | ||||||||
▪ $25bn 2H20-2025 divestment proceeds | ||||||||
2022 | ||||||||
(1) Chart presented at $50/bbl Brent (2020 real) and bp planning assumptions | ||||||||
(2) Cash cover ratio: funds from operating activities over expanded debt, including leases, Gulf of Mexico oil spill liabilities and decommissioning liabilities | ||||||||
(3) Operating cash flow excluding post-tax DWH payments, adding JV loan repayments, deducting lease payments, organic and inorganic cash capex at the low end of the $14- | 46 | |||||||
16bn capital frame, dividend and hybrid coupon. Assuming an average of around $11/bbl RMM and $3.00/mmBtu Henry Hub (2020 real) | ||||||||
Committed distributions
Clear policy | Per share2 distributions |
▪ Resilient dividend intended to stay fixed at
c/share
Dividend Buybacks
5.25 cents per share per quarter1
- Commitment to return at least 60% of surplus3
42c/share
cash flow via buybacks
- once net debt target achieved; and
- subject to maintaining a strong investment grade credit rating
- Remainder of surplus at board discretion
(1) Intended to remain fixed at this level, subject to board discretion each quarter
- Per share distributions: dividend per share plus total buyback expenditure divided by projected share count
- Surplus refers to surplus of sources of cash including operating cash flow, JV loan repayments and divestment proceeds, over uses, including leases, Gulf of
Mexico oil spill payments, hybrid servicing costs, dividend payments and cash capital expenditure, as defined in bp's Press Release dated 4th August 2020 | 47 |
Investment allocation drives value growth
Investment criteria
- Strategic alignment
- Returns
- Volatility / ratability
- Integration
- Sustainability
- Risk
Disciplined process
- Boundaries set by capital frame and the 10 aims
- Central allocation across individual business units
- Stringent, differentiated hurdle rates
- More agile decision-making and reallocation
Sustainable value growth
- Optimising returns and net asset value, balancing:
- short-termfree cash flow
- medium-termgrowth
- long-termsustainable value
48
Performing while transforming - 2021-25 business plan
Disciplined expenditure
$14-16bn per year1 investment including inorganics
Active portfolio management
Includes $5-7bn per year² investment | $2.5bn cash cost reductions by |
in low carbon electricity and energy | end 2021³ on track. Ambition of |
and convenience and mobility | $3-4bn reductions by 2023 |
$25bn 2H20-2025 divestment | 2020 and 2021 proceeds well | Executing on an identified hopper | |
programme4 | underpinned by transactions | of assets to high-grade our | |
announced or in-progress | portfolio | ||
Relentless execution | |||
Scaling our low carbon electricity | Expanding our convenience | Maximising value from resilient | |
and energy | and mobility offer | and focused hydrocarbons |
Strong growth in EBIDA4 | Strong and | Investing at scale in the | ||||
per share | improving ROACE5 | energy transition | ||||
(1) | $13-15bn per annum until reaching net debt target of $35bn | (2) | $4-6bn per annum until reaching net debt target of $35bn | (3) Relative to 2019 | ||
(4) | Divestment programme refers to divestment proceeds received in the period | (5) EBIDA: Underlying replacement cost profit before interest and tax, add back depreciation, | ||||
depletion and amortization and exploration expenditure written-off (net of non-operating items), less taxation on an underlying replacement cost basis | (6) ROACE: return on average | 49 | ||||
capital employed as defined in bp's 2019 annual report | ||||||
Scaling our low carbon electricity and energy businesses
SmartLog
Developed | ||||
2.5 | 20 | |||
renewables (GW) | ||||
250 | 350 | |||
Traded electricity1 (TWh) | ||||
14.9 | 25 | |||
LNG portfolio (Mtpa) | ||||
wind
222 | 50 | |||
Bioenergy (Kbd) | ||||
Growing to achieve material scale by 2025
(1) | Traded electricity may include electricity sourced from the grid | 50 |
(2) | Includes bp's 2019 net equity ethanol equivalent production for sugarcane ethanol & biopower production and bp's 2019 refining bio co-processing production |
Expanding our convenience and mobility offer
>10m
1,270
$6.5bn
>1,600
>7,500
~25%
Customer touchpoints per day
bp retail sites in growth markets
Castrol revenues
Strategic convenience sites
EV charge points
Margin from convenience and electrification1
>15m
7,000
$7.5bn
>2,300
>25,000
~35%
Customer centric growth with robust returns
(1) As a ratio of total consumer energy (retail fuels and electrification) and convenience margin (excludes equity accounted entities) | 51 |
Maximising value from resilient and focused hydrocarbons
Track record of major project delivery
24 | Delivering | Delivering | ||||||
Major Projects | 700mboed | 900mboed | ||||||
online | developed | by end-2021 | ||||||
2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023+ | |||||
▪ Atlantis Ph3 | ▪ KG D6 Satellites | ▪ Mad Dog Ph2 | ▪ ACE | |||||
▪ KG D6 R-Series | ▪ Thunder Horse S. | ▪ Herschel | ▪ GTA Ph1 | |||||
▪ Vorlich | Exp Ph2 | ▪ KG D6 MJ | ▪ Cypre | |||||
▪ Raven | ▪ Manuel | ▪ Matapal | ▪ Seagull | |||||
▪ Khazzan Ph2 | ▪ Zinia 2 | ▪ Platina | ||||||
▪ Tangguh Expansion | ||||||||
▪ Cassia Compression | ||||||||
Advantaged refining portfolio | ||||||||
4 | ~1bn | >50% | ||||||
Refineries delivered | underlying earnings | delivered by | ||||||
>96% average | growth in 2018- | 2019 | ||||||
availability in 2018-19 | 2025 | |||||||
- This and all other 2025 metrics are stated after expected impact of divestments
- Upstream unit metrics exclude production from equity accounted entities
- bp-operatedupstream plant reliability
- bp-operatedrefining availability
2.6 | Upstream production1 (mmboed) | ~2 | |||||||
~7 | Unit production costs2 ($/boe) | ~6 | |||||||
94% | Plant reliability3 | 96% | |||||||
1.7 | Refining throughput (mmbbl/d) | <1.5 | |||||||
~95% | Refining availability4 | 96% | |||||||
~13 | Capex ($bn) | ~9 | |||||||
Providing a solid foundation
52
2021-25 business plan outcomes
Underlying1 EBIDA2 growth | EBIDA2 per share growth3 | Strong and growing |
ROACE5 | ||
$bn | c/share | % |
2H19-1H20 | 2025 | 2H19-1H20 | 2025 | 2019 | 2025 |
$51 | $50-60 | $51 | $50-60 | $64 | $50-60 |
▪ 5-6% underlying | ▪ 7-9% per share EBIDA2 | ▪ 12-14% group ROACE⁵ in | |
EBIDA2 CAGR4 | per share CAGR4 | 2025 | |
(1) | Underlying: Before impact of planned divestments | ||
(2) | EBIDA: Underlying replacement cost profit before interest and tax, add back depreciation, depletion and amortization and exploration expenditure written-off (net of non-operating | ||
items), less taxation on an underlying replacement cost basis | |||
(3) | Buyback modelled across a range of share prices; EBIDA after impact of planned divestments | ||
(4) | CAGR: compound annual growth rate | 53 | |
(5) ROACE: return on average capital employed as defined in bp's 2019 annual report | |||
Clear priorities for uses of cash
2021-25 sources of cash¹
Resilient dividend | 5.25 c/share2 |
per quarter | |
Deleverage
Investment3
Buybacks
Surplus after buybacks
To $35bn net debt
Phase 1 ~$13-15bn per year Phase 2 ~$14-16bn per year
At least 60% of surplus4
- Sources of cash includes Operating cash flow at $50-60/bbl Brent (2020 real) and bp planning assumptions plus JV loan repayments and divestment proceeds, deducting
leases, Gulf of Mexico oil spill payments and hybrid servicing costs | (2) Dividend per quarter, intended to remain fixed at this level, subject to board discretion each | |||
quarter | (3) Investment refers to organic and inorganic capital expenditure | (4) | At least 60% of surplus cash as buyback after having reached $35bn Net Debt and | 54 |
subject to maintaining a strong investment grade credit rating, as defined in bp's Press Release dated 4th August 2020 | ||||
Our new investor proposition
Resilient dividend of 5.25 cents per share per quarter
>60% surplus cash as share buybacks¹
7-9% EBIDA² per share CAGR³
Growing ROACE to 12-14%⁴
Committed
distributions
Profitable
growth
>20% capital employed in transition⁵
Sustainable
value
- At least 60% of surplus cash as buyback after having reached $35bn Net Debt and subject to maintaining a strong investment grade credit rating, as defined in bp's Press Release dated
4th August 2020 | (2) EBIDA: Underlying replacement cost profit before interest and tax, add back depreciation, depletion and amortization and exploration expenditure written-off (net | |||
of non-operating items), less taxation on an underlying RC basis | (3) | 2H19/1H20-2025,$50-60/bbl Brent (2020 real), at bp planning assumptions | (4) ROACE: return on average | 55 |
capital employed as defined in bp's 2019 annual report, by 2025, $50-60/bbl (2020 real), at bp planning assumptions | (5) By 2025 | |||
Bernard Looney
CEO
56
to low carbon energy and customer focus
An integrated energy company delivering solutionsfor customers
our net zero
ambition
long-term | |
resilient hydrocarbon | value for |
business on value | shareholders |
57
The team | David Eyton | Geoff Morrell | |||
EVP, innovation | Emma Delaney | ||||
EVP, communications | |||||
Giulia Chierchia | & engineering | Murray Auchincloss | |||
EVP, customers | & advocacy | ||||
EVP, strategy & | & products | Chief financial officer | |||
William Lin | sustainability | Eric Nitcher | |||
EVP, regions, | |||||
EVP, Legal | |||||
cities & | |||||
solutions |
Carol Howle | Dev Sanyal | Kerry Dryburgh | |
EVP, trading | Gordon Birrell | EVP, people & culture | |
EVP, gas & low | |||
& shipping | Bernard Looney | ||
EVP, production | carbon energy | ||
& operations | Chief executive officer |
Q&A
Bernard Looney | Murray Auchincloss | Giulia Chierchia |
EVP, Strategy and | ||
CEO | CFO | |
Sustainability | ||
Appendix
60
Emissions pathways with 2019 baseline
2019 | 2025 | 2030 | 2050, or sooner | |||||||||||||||
Baseline | Targets | Aims | Aims | |||||||||||||||
Aim | ||||||||||||||||||
1 | 54 | 20% | 30-35% | 100%1 | ||||||||||||||
Mte | ||||||||||||||||||
Aim | ||||||||||||||||||
2 | 360 | 20% | 35-40% | 100%2 | ||||||||||||||
Mte | Emissions | |||||||||||||||||
reductions | ||||||||||||||||||
Aim | ||||||||||||||||||
3 | 79.7 | 5% | >15% | 50% | ||||||||||||||
gCO2e/MJ | ||||||||||||||||||
Aim | Timeline to | |||||||||||||||||
4 | 0.2% | Measurements in | 50% | |||||||||||||||
achieve 50% | ||||||||||||||||||
proxy | place by 2023 | reduction to follow | ||||||||||||||||
Aim | $500m | $3-4bn | ~$5bn | |||||||||||||||
spend3 | ||||||||||||||||||
5 | ||||||||||||||||||
Low carbon | ||||||||||||||||||
(1) | Net zero, gross operated (2) Net zero, | bp net equity, excludes Rosneft | ||||||||||||||||
61 | ||||||||||||||||||
(3) | Includes: low carbon electricity, bio-energy, electrification, future mobility solutions, CCUS, Hydrogen (incl. mobility) & trading (low carbon) |
2Q 2020 summary
$bn | 2Q19 | 1Q20 | 2Q20 | % Y-o-Y | % Q-o-Q | ||
Upstream | 3.4 | 1.9 | (8.5) | ||||
Downstream | 1.4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | ||||
Other businesses and corporate | (0.3) | (0.6) | (0.3) | ||||
Underlying business RCPBIT1 | 4.5 | 2.2 | -7.3 | (264%) | (429%) | ||
Rosneft2 | 0.6 | (0.0) | (0.1) | ||||
Consolidation adjustment - unrealised profit in inventory | 0.0 | 0.2 | (0.0) | ||||
Underlying RCPBIT1 | 5.2 | 2.4 | -7.4 | (244%) | (411%) | ||
Finance costs3 | (0.8) | (0.7) | (0.7) | ||||
Tax | (1.5) | (1.0) | 0.8 | ||||
Minority interest | (0.1) | 0.0 | 0.7 | ||||
Underlying replacement cost profit | 2.8 | 0.8 | -6.7 | (338%) | (945%) | ||
Underlying effective tax rate4 | 34% | 55% | 9% | ||||
Underlying operating cash flow5 | 8.2 | 1.2 | 4.8 | (41%) | 292% | ||
Underlying earnings per share (cents) | 13.8 | 3.9 | -33.0 | (339%) | (943%) | ||
Dividend paid per share (cents) | 10.25 | 10.50 | 10.50 | 2% | 0% | ||
Dividend declared per share (cents) | 10.25 | 10.50 | 5.25 | (49%) | (50%) |
- Replacement cost profit before interest and tax (RCPBIT), adjusted for non-operating items and fair value accounting effects
- BP estimate of Rosneft earnings after interest, tax and minority interest
(3) | Finance costs and net finance income or expense relating to pensions and other post-retirement benefits | |
(4) | Underlying effective tax rate on replacement cost profit adjusted to remove the effects of non-operating items and fair value accounting effects | 62 |
(5) | Underlying operating cash flow is net cash provided by/(used in) operating activities excluding post-tax Gulf of Mexico oil spill payments | |
Upstream
Volume mboed | Underlying RCPBIT3 $bn | ||||||||||||||||||||||
4000 | 1 | 3.4 | Non-US | US | Total | ||||||||||||||||||
Group production | 4.0 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.9 | |||||||||||||||||||
3500 | 2.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
3000 | Upstream production | 0.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||
(2.0) | |||||||||||||||||||||||
excluding Rosneft | |||||||||||||||||||||||
(4.0) | |||||||||||||||||||||||
2500 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
2000 | (6.0) | (8.5) | |||||||||||||||||||||
(8.0) | |||||||||||||||||||||||
1500 | (10.0) | 2Q19 | 3Q19 | 4Q19 | 1Q20 | 2Q20 | |||||||||||||||||
2Q19 | 3Q19 | 4Q19 | 1Q20 | 2Q20 | |||||||||||||||||||
Realisations2 2Q19 1Q20 2Q20 | 2Q 2020 vs 1Q 2020 | |||||
Liquids ($/bbl) | 63 | 47 | 23 | ▪ | Impact of writing down $7.7bn from certain | |
Gas ($/mcf) | 3.4 | 2.8 | 2.5 | exploration intangible carrying values in 2Q, | ||
▪ | Lower liquids and gas realisations |
(1) | Group reported oil and gas production including Rosneft | |
(2) | Realisations based on sales of consolidated subsidiaries only, excluding equity-accounted entities | 63 |
(3) | Replacement cost profit before interest and tax (RCPBIT), adjusted for non-operating items and fair value accounting effects | |
Downstream
96% | Refining | Underlying RCPBIT2 | $bn | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
2Q19 | 1Q20 | 2Q20 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Fuels | Lubricants | Petrochemicals | Total | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
environment | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Refining availability1 | 2.0 | 1.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
RMM ($/bbl) | 15.2 | 8.8 | 5.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
1Q20: 96% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
1.5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
2Q 2020 vs 1Q 2020 | 0.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
▪ | Weaker industry refining margins | and | 1.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
narrower North American heavy crude oil | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
discounts; | 0.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
▪ Significantly lower marketing volumes and | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
lower refining utilisation, driven by the impact | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
of COVID-19 | 0.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
More than offset by | 2Q19 | 3Q19 | 4Q19 | 1Q20 | 2Q20 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
▪ An exceptionally strong contribution from | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
supply and trading | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
(1) BP-operated refining availability | 64 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
(2) | Replacement cost profit before interest and tax (RCPBIT), adjusted for non-operating items and fair value accounting effects | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Rosneft
BP share of underlying net income1 $bn
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20
-0.2
BP share of Rosneft dividend2 $bn
Dividend paid | Half yearly dividend | ||
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
2018 | 2019 | 2020 |
1.1mmboed
BP share of Rosneft production3
- On a replacement cost basis and adjusted for non-operating items; 2Q20 represents BP estimate
(2) | From 2018, represents BP's share of 50% of Rosneft's IFRS net profit, 2H 2019 paid in July 2020 | 65 |
(3) | Average daily production for 2Q20 | |
Attachments
- Original document
- Permalink
Disclaimer
BP plc published this content on 04 August 2020 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 04 August 2020 07:42:13 UTC