March 1-2, 2020
see the light
Second Quarter 2020 Results
July 30, 2020
CABOT OIL & GAS CORPORATION
CABOT OIL & GAS CORPORATION
Forward-Looking Statements and Other Disclosures
This presentation includes forward‐looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. The statements regarding future financial and operating performance and results, returns to shareholders, strategic pursuits and goals, market prices, future hedging and risk management activities, and other statements that are not historical facts contained in this report are forward-looking statements. The words "expect", "project", "estimate", "believe", "anticipate", "intend", "budget", "plan", "forecast", "outlook", "predict", "may", "should", "could", "will" and similar expressions are also intended to identify forward-looking statements. Such statements involve risks and uncertainties, including, but not limited to, the continuing effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the impact thereof on the Company's business, financial condition and results of operations, the availability of cash on hand and other sources of liquidity to fund our capital expenditures, the repayment of our debt maturities and our dividends, actions by, or disputes among or between, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and other producer countries, market factors, market prices (including geographic basis differentials) of natural gas and crude oil, results of future drilling and marketing activity, future production and costs, pipeline projects, legislative and regulatory initiatives, electronic, cyber or physical security breaches and other factors detailed herein and in our other Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filings. See "Risk Factors" in Item 1A of the Company's most recent Annual Report on Form 10-K and subsequent Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q for additional information about these risks and uncertainties. Should one or more of these risks or uncertainties materialize, or should underlying assumptions prove incorrect, actual outcomes may vary materially from those indicated. Any forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date on which such statement is made, and the Company does not undertake any obligation to correct or update any forward- looking statement, whether as the result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by applicable law.
This presentation may contain certain terms, such as resource potential, risked or unrisked resources, potential locations, risked or unrisked locations, EUR (estimated ultimate recovery) and other similar terms that describe estimates of potentially recoverable hydrocarbons that the SEC rules prohibit from being included in filings with the SEC. These estimates are by their nature more speculative than estimates of proved, probable and possible reserves and may not constitute "reserves" within the meaning of SEC rules and accordingly, are subject to substantially greater risk of being actually realized. These estimates are based on the Company's existing models and internal estimates. Actual locations drilled and quantities that may be ultimately recovered from the Company's interests could differ substantially. Factors affecting ultimate recovery include the scope of the Company's ongoing drilling program, which will be directly affected by the availability of capital, drilling and production costs, availably of drilling services and equipment, drilling results, lease expirations, transportation constraints, regulatory approvals, actual drilling results, including geological and mechanical factors affecting recovery rates, and other factors. These estimates may‐change significantly as development of the Company's assets provide additional data. Investors are urged to consider carefully the disclosures and risk factors about Cabot's reserves in the Form 10 K and other reports on file with the SEC.
This presentation also refers to Discretionary Cash Flow, EBITDAX, Free Cash Flow, Adjusted Net Income (Loss), Return on Capital Employed (ROCE), Net Debt calculations and ratios and Finding and Development Costs. These non-GAAP financial measures are not alternatives to GAAP measures, and should not be considered in isolation or as an alternative for analysis of the Company's results as reported under GAAP. For additional disclosure regarding such non-GAAP measures, including definitions of these terms and reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP measures, please refer to Cabot's most recent earnings release at www.cabotog.comand the Company's related 8-K on file with the SEC.
CABOT OIL & GAS CORPORATION | 2 |
Second Quarter 2020 Highlights
- Daily production of 2,229 Mmcfe per day, exceeding the high- end of the Company's guidance range
- All operating expenses were in-line or below guidance ranges for the quarter
- Despite the lowest average quarterly NYMEX price since the third quarter of 1995, Cabot was able to generate positive net income of $30.4 million (or $0.08 per share) and adjusted net income (non-GAAP) of $18.0 million (or $0.05 per share)
- Return on capital employed (ROCE) (non-GAAP) for the trailing twelve months of 10.3 percent
- Subsequent to the end of the second quarter, Cabot repaid $87.0 million of senior notes that matured in July 2020
Note: See supplemental tables at the end of the presentation for a reconciliation of non-GAAP measures
1 Includes direct operations, transportation and gathering, taxes other than income, exploration, DD&A, general and administrative, and interest expense
Q2 | Q1 | Q2 | |||||
2020 | 2020 | 2019 | |||||
Equivalent Production (Mmcfe/d) | 2,229 | 2,363 | 2,349 | ||||
Realized Gas Price (Incl. Hedges) ($/Mcf) | $1.52 | $1.72 | $2.27 | ||||
Realized Gas Price (Excl. Hedges) ($/Mcf) | $1.42 | $1.72 | $2.20 | ||||
Net Income ($mm) | $30.4 | $53.9 | $181.0 | ||||
Adjusted Net Income (non-GAAP) ($mm) | $18.0 | $54.0 | $150.6 | ||||
Discretionary Cash Flow (non-GAAP) ($mm) | $119.2 | $198.5 | $301.9 | ||||
Free Cash Flow (non-GAAP) ($mm) | ($63.3) | $49.8 | $72.7 | ||||
EBITDAX (non-GAAP) ($mm) | $136.9 | $189.0 | $311.1 | ||||
Operating Expenses1 ($/Mcfe) | $1.44 | $1.46 | $1.41 | ||||
LTM Net Debt / EBITDAX (non-GAAP) | 1.2x | 0.9x | 0.6x | ||||
TTM ROCE (non-GAAP) | 10.3% | 14.1% | 23.5% | ||||
CABOT OIL & GAS CORPORATION | 3 | ||||||
Cabot Oil & Gas Strategy
Focus on Financial Returns
Demonstrate Continued
Cost Control
Maintain Financial Strength
Generate Positive Free Cash Flow
Return Capital to Shareholders
Increase Our Proved Reserve Base
- Generate financial returns that exceed our cost of capital by focusing on disciplined capital investment and maintaining a low cost structure
- TTM Q2 2020 ROCE of 10.3%
- Low cost structure provides a competitive advantage, especially in a low natural gas price environment
- Q2 2020 operating expenses per unit (including interest expense and G&A) of $1.44 per Mcfe
- Net debt / LTM EBITDAX of 1.2x as of 6/30/2020
- Subsequent to the end of the second quarter, repaid $87.0 million of senior notes that matured in July 2020
- 2020 program is expected to generate free cash flow for the fifth consecutive year and fund the majority of the Company's dividend1
- Minimum annual return of capital target of at least 50% of free cash flow
- Reduced weighted-average shares outstanding by 14% and increased dividend five times since 2017
- Increased proved reserves by 11% in 2019 to 12.9 Tcfe at an all-sources F&D cost of $0.36 per Mcfe
- Over two decades of remaining Marcellus drilling locations across ~173,000 net acres in the core of the dry gas window in Northeast Pennsylvania
Note: See supplemental tables at the end of the presentation for a reconciliation of non-GAAP measures
1 Based on the current NYMEX futures curve as of July 29, 2020
CABOT OIL & GAS CORPORATION | 4 |
2020 Capital Program & Outlook
- Cabot's 2020 maintenance capital program of $575 million is expected to deliver an average net production rate of 2,350 - 2,375 Mmcfe per day (flat production year-over-year)
- Third quarter 2020 production guidance of 2,400 - 2,450 Mmcfe per day
- Fourth quarter 2020 production is expected to be flat to the fourth quarter of 2019
- Program includes 60 -70 net wells drilled, completed, and placed on production
- Capital spending is expected to sequentially decline in both the third and fourth quarters of 2020, driven by a reduction in activity in the second half of the year
- Based on the current NYMEX futures curve1, Cabot expects its 2020 capital program to be fully funded within cash flow and to generate enough free cash flow to cover the majority of its dividend, despite the expectation for the lowest annual NYMEX price since 1995
- In 2021, based on a NYMEX price assumption of $2.75 per Mmbtu, which is roughly in line with the current NYMEX futures1, the Company can deliver similar production volumes as 2020 from a modestly lower maintenance capital program, while generating a free cash flow yield1 of approximately eight percent and a ROCE between 19 and 20 percent
- Official 2021 guidance will be issued in early 2021
2020 CAPITAL PROGRAM
$575 million
8%
92%
Drilling / Completions / Facilities Other Program Capital2
- NYMEX futures curve and market capitalization as of July 29, 2020
- Includes production equipment, lease acquisition, corporate, and GasSearch Drilling (GDS) capital
CABOT OIL & GAS CORPORATION | 5 |
Free Cash Flow ($mm)
• | Generated positive free cash flow in 15 of the last 17 quarters | |
• | Expect to deliver positive free cash flow for the fifth consecutive year in 2020, | $563 |
despite the lowest expected NYMEX prices since 1995 |
- Anticipate a significant expansion of free cash flow in 2021 driven primarily by higher price realizations
-
Prioritization for the deployment of free cash flow in 2021:
- Funding the regular quarterly dividend
- Repayment of 2021 debt maturities | $297 | ||||||||
- Additional opportunistic returns of capital to shareholders | |||||||||
$155 | |||||||||
$57 | |||||||||
2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020E | |||||
Average NYMEX Price | $2.46 | $3.11 | $3.09 | $2.63 | ~$2.001 | ||||
($/Mmbtu) |
Note: See supplemental tables at the end of the presentation for a reconciliation of non-GAAP measures
1 NYMEX futures curve as of July 29, 2020
CABOT OIL & GAS CORPORATION | 6 |
Return on Capital Employed (ROCE)
• | Focused on generating financial returns that exceed our cost of capital through | 22.2% |
the commodity price cycle | ||
• | Targeting a 19% - 20% ROCE in 2021 assuming $2.75 NYMEX | |
15.9% |
7.3%
(1.0%) | ||||||
2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020E | ||
Average NYMEX Price | ||||||
$2.46 | $3.11 | $3.09 | $2.63 | ~$2.001 | ||
($/Mmbtu) | ||||||
Note: See supplemental tables at the end of the presentation for a reconciliation of non-GAAP measures
1 NYMEX futures curve as of July 29, 2020
CABOT OIL & GAS CORPORATION | 7 |
Net Debt / EBITDAX
- Target leverage ratio of 1.0x through the commodity price cycle
- Anticipate a significant reduction in our leverage ratio in 2021, resulting from higher anticipated realized prices and lower absolute debt levels
1.8x
1.0x
1.0x
0.7x
2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020E | ||
Average NYMEX Price | ||||||
$2.46 | $3.11 | $3.09 | $2.63 | ~$2.001 | ||
($/Mmbtu) | ||||||
Note: See supplemental tables at the end of the presentation for a reconciliation of non-GAAP measures
1 NYMEX futures curve as of July 29, 2020
CABOT OIL & GAS CORPORATION | 8 |
Unit Costs ($/Mcfe)
- Industry-leadingcost structure supports profitability and financial returns even in the trough of the commodity price cycle
All-In Operating Expenses (Including Non-Cash Expenses)
$2.17 | $2.02 | |
$1.76 | ||
$1.44
2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020E | |||
Cash Operating Expenses1 | |||||||
$1.16 | $1.13 | $1.00 | $0.93 | ||||
20162017201820192020E
1 Excludes DD&A, stock-based compensation, non-cash interest expense associated with income tax reserves, amortization of deferred financing cost and dry hole cost
CABOT OIL & GAS CORPORATION | 9 |
The Outlook for Natural Gas Markets Has Improved Significantly, Driven By Large Reductions in Operating Activity Across Both Gas-Focused and Liquids-Focused Basins…
Horizontal Rig Count
Peak 2019 Rig Count | Current Rig Count | ||
70 | 450 | |||
60 | 400 | |||
350 | ||||
50 | 300 | |||
40 | 43% | 250 | ||
decline | 200 | |||
30 | ||||
71% | ||||
150 | ||||
20 | decline | |||
100 | ||||
10 | 75% | 50 | ||
decline | ||||
0 | 0 | |||
Marcellus | Haynesville | Utica | ||
Gas-Focused Basins
72%
decline
85% | 92% | 83% | 90% | |
decline | ||||
decline | decline | decline | ||
Permian | Eagle Ford | Cana Woodford | Williston | DJ/Niobrara |
Liquids-Focused Basins
Source: Baker Hughes Rig Count as of July 24, 2020
CABOT OIL & GAS CORPORATION | 10 |
…Resulting in the Expectation for a Significant Reduction in Natural Gas Supply, While Demand is Increasing
Winter Withdrawal Season
120 | ||||
100 | ||||
80 | ||||
60 | ||||
40 | ||||
20 | ||||
0 | 2019 / | 2020 / | 2019 / | 2020 / |
2020 | 2021 | 2020 | 2021 | |
Supply | Demand |
Summer Injection Period
2020 | 2021 | 2020 | 2021 |
SupplyDemand
Source: Genscape Forward Natural Gas Supply and Demand Forecast as of July 24, 2020
CABOT OIL & GAS CORPORATION | 11 |
Appendix
2020 Guidance
2020 Guidance
- 2020E production guidance: 2,350 - 2,375 Mmcfe per day
- The midpoint of the production guidance range implies flat production levels year- over-year, with Q4 2020 exit volumes expected to be flat to Q4 2019
- Q3 2020E production guidance: 2,400 - 2,450 Mmcfe per day
- 2020E capital program: $575 million
- Capital spending is expected to sequentially decline in both the third and fourth quarters of 2020, driven by a reduction in activity in the second half of the year
- 2020E weighted-average natural gas price differential1: ($0.30) to ($0.35) per Mcf
- 2020E wells drilled, completed, and placed on production: 60 - 70 net wells
- 2020E income tax rate guidance: 24%
- 2020E deferred tax rate guidance1: 135% - 145%
Q3 2020E Natural Gas Price Exposure By Index
Fixed Price (~$2.30) | 30% |
NYMEX (less $0.48) | 22% |
Transco Z6 NNY (less $0.65) | 17% |
TGP Z4 -300 Leg | 9% |
Power Pricing | 9% |
Leidy Line | 8% |
Millennium | 5% |
Note: Fixed price percentages above include volumes associated with sales agreements that have floor prices. An additional deduct of ~$0.05 per Mcf should be applied to account for fuel use.
Q3 2020E Cost Assumptions ($/Mcfe, unless otherwise noted)
Direct operations | $0.09 - $0.10 |
Transportation and gathering | $0.66 - $0.68 |
Taxes other than income | $0.02 - $0.03 |
Exploration2 | $0.01 - $0.02 |
Depreciation, depletion and amortization | $0.46 - $0.48 |
Interest expense | $0.06 - $0.07 |
General and administrative ($mm, excluding stock-based compensation) | $15.5 - $16.5 |
- Based on forward curves as of July 29, 2020
- Excluding exploratory dry hole costs; includes exploration administration expense and geophysical expenses
CABOT OIL & GAS CORPORATION | 13 |
Financial Position and Risk Management Profile
Debt Maturity Schedule ($mm) as of 6/30/2020
$600 | Senior Notes ($mm) | Weighted-Average Coupon Rate | 7.00% | |||||||||||||||||||||
6.00% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
$500 | 6.54% | |||||||||||||||||||||||
6.25% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
$575 | 5.00% | |||||||||||||||||||||||
$400 | 4.17% | |||||||||||||||||||||||
4.00% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
$300 | 4.26% | |||||||||||||||||||||||
Repaid in | 3.67% | 3.00% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
$200 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
$312 | 2.00% | |||||||||||||||||||||||
$100 | July 2020 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
$87 | $188 | $62 | 1.00% | |||||||||||||||||||||
$0 | 0.00% | |||||||||||||||||||||||
2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | ||||||||||||||||||
Capitalization / Liquidity | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
As of 6/30/2020 | $bn | |||||||||||||||||||||||
Cash and Cash Equivalents | $0.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
Debt | $1.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
Net Debt | $1.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
Net Capitalization | $3.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
Liquidity | $1.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
Net Debt / Capitalization | 33.7% | |||||||||||||||||||||||
Net Debt / LTM EBITDAX | 1.2x | |||||||||||||||||||||||
CABOT OIL & GAS CORPORATION | 14 |
2020 Hedge Summary
Natural Gas (NYMEX) Swaps
Total Volume (Mmbtu) | Weighted-Average Price | Duration | |
($/Mmbtu) | |||
36,900,000 | $2.25 | July 2020 - October 2020 | |
Natural Gas (NYMEX) Collars | |||
Total Volume (Mmbtu) | Weighted-Average | Weighted-Average | Duration |
Floor Price | Ceiling Price | ||
($/Mmbtu) | ($/Mmbtu) | ||
61,500,000 | $2.05 | $2.24 | July 2020 - October 2020 |
Note: As of July 29, 2020
CABOT OIL & GAS CORPORATION | 15 |
Reconciliation of Net Income to Adjusted Net Income and Adjusted Earnings Per Share
CABOT OIL & GAS CORPORATION | 16 |
EBITDAX Calculation and Reconciliation
CABOT OIL & GAS CORPORATION | 17 |
Net Debt Reconciliation
CABOT OIL & GAS CORPORATION | 18 |
Discretionary Cash Flow and Free Cash Flow Calculation and Reconciliation
CABOT OIL & GAS CORPORATION | 19 |
Return on Capital Employed Calculation
CABOT OIL & GAS CORPORATION | 20 |
Finding and Development Costs Calculations
CABOT OIL & GAS CORPORATION | 21 |
We believe natural gas provides opportunity for a bright future, one filled with innovation and prosperity.
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Cabot Oil & Gas Corporation published this content on 30 July 2020 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 30 July 2020 21:20:05 UTC