April 2020
Disclaimer
This presentation does not constitute, or form part of, any offer to sell or issue or any solicitation of any offer to purchase or subscribe for,
any shares in Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc ("Caledonia"), nor shall it (or any part of it) or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or
be relied on in connection with, or act as an inducement to enter into any contract or agreement thereto.
Certain forward-looking statements may be contained in the presentation which include, without limitation, expectations regarding metal prices, estimates of production, operating expenditure, capital expenditure and projections regarding the completion of capital projects as well as the financial position of the Company. Although Caledonia believes that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are reasonable, no assurance can be given that such expectations will prove to be accurate. Accordingly, results could differ from those projected as a result of, among other factors, changes in economic and market conditions, changes in the regulatory environment and other business and operational risks.
Accordingly, neither Caledonia, nor any of its directors, officers, employees, advisers, associated persons or subsidiary undertakings shall be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of relying upon this presentation or any future communications in connection with this presentation and any such liabilities are expressly disclaimed.
The projected gold production figures in this document for 2021 and 2022 are explained in the management discussion and analysis ("MD&A") dated March 20, 2019. Refer to technical report dated February 13, 2018 entitled "National Instrument 43-101 Technical Report on the Blanket Mine, Gwanda Area, Zimbabwe (Updated February 2018), a copy of which was filed by the Company on SEDAR on March 2, 2018 for the key assumptions, parameters, and methods used to estimate the mineral resources and mineral reserves from which such planned gold production is to be derived and risks that could materially affect the potential development of the mineral resources or mineral reserves. Refer to Resource Upgrade at the Blanket Mine, Zimbabwe as announced by the Company on September 20, 2018 for the resources as stated in this document. Mr Paul Matthews, the Company's qualified person and Group Mineral Resource Manager, supervised the preparation of the technical information in the technical report, and also supervised the preparation of the technical information supporting the production figures and the resources.
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- Company Overview: building a solid foundation
- Central Shaft: near-term,low-risk growth
- Attractive new opportunities in Zimbabwe
Company Overview
Building a solid foundation
4
Caledonia Mining : Overview
Caledonia:
Profitable gold producer
Blanket Gold Mine:
An established mine with
substantial planned
production growth and
cost reduction
Dividend
- Established, profitable gold producer, now expanding production from the Blanket Mine in the Gwanda Greenstone Belt, Zimbabwe
- Jersey domiciled company; listed on NYSE MKT, TSX and AIM
- US$12.5m in cash at 30 March 2020
- P/E of 8.3x on adjusted 2019 earnings (IFRS: 3.1x)
Production (oz) | AISC ($/oz) | ||
2018 | Actual | 54,512 | $802/oz |
2019 | Actual | 55,182 | $856/oz |
2020 | Target | 53,000 to 56,000 | n/a |
2021 | Target | 75,000 | $700-$800/oz* |
2022 | Target | 80,000 | $700-$800/oz* |
- M&I Resources of 805koz at 3.72g/t, Inferred resources of 963koz at 4.52g/t
- Fully funded investment program supporting a 14-year life of mine
- Significant on-mine and regional exploration upside
- Prior to the uncertainty associated with COVID-19 Caledonia paid a dividend of 7.5 US cents per quarter. Dividends due to be paid in April 2020 are currently under review pending greater clarity regarding the impact of the pandemic
- 2021 target AISC is C3-On-mine cost per the Technical Report published in Feb 2018 after adjustment for head office expenses and removal of intercompany margin. No account taken of export incentive credits or potential savings arising from increased efficiency of the central shaft
5
Building a solid track record
Production growth, good cost control and capital investment
Caledonia Mining has a track record of rising production and declining unit operating costs. This has delivered strong
operating cash flow to support significant capital investment
2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | CAGR | |
Revenue ($k) | 48,977 | 61,992 | 69,762 | 68,399 | 75,826 | 12% |
Gold Production (oz) | 42,802 | 50,351 | 56,133 | 54,511 | 55,182 | 7% |
Operating Cash Flow ($k) | 6,869 | 23,011 | 24,512 | 17,667 | 18,060 | 27% |
Capital Investment ($k) | 16,567 | 19,882 | 21,639 | 20,192 | 20,024 | - |
Cash ($k) | 10,880 | 14,335 | 12,756 | 11,187 | 8,893 | - |
Return on Shareholders Funds (%) | 10% | 15% | 15% | 15% | 39%1 | - |
Adjusted EPS (USc/share) | 44.5 | 98.6 | 135.4 | 131.5 | 144 | 36% |
1 - ROCE excluding FX gain is approximately 21% in 2019 |
6
Recent Positive News Flow
A series of favourable events as Caledonia delivers its strategy
July 24, 2019 | Completion of Shaft Sinking at Central Shaft Project |
October 16, 2019 | Stabilization of Electricity Supply Situation in Zimbabwe |
January 3, 2020 | Increase of Quarterly Dividend by 9.1% |
January 13, 2020 | Achievement of Record Production in Q4 2019 |
January 21, 2020 | Completion of transaction to increase shareholding in Blanket to 64% |
January 30, 2020 | Announcement of Increased Earnings Guidance for 2019 |
April 9, 2020 | Strong Q1 Production performance ahead of target for 2020 |
Recent announcements highlighting high levels of business resilience in the face of the current COVID-19 Pandemic
leave Caledonia well placed to weather business interruptions that may be forthcoming
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Capital Structure & Financials
Relative Performance | |||||||||||||
400 | |||||||||||||
350 | |||||||||||||
to 100 | 300 | ||||||||||||
250 | |||||||||||||
rebased | 200 | ||||||||||||
performance | 150 | ||||||||||||
50 | |||||||||||||
100 | |||||||||||||
Relative | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | ||||
0 | CMCL share price plus divs | GDXJ rebased to 100 | |||||||||||
Summary P&L | FY | FY | FY | FY | FY | ||||||||
($'m except /share data) | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | ||||||||
Revenues | 49.0 | 62.0 | 69.8 | 68.4 | 75.8 | ||||||||
EBITDA** | 8.9 | 19.7 | 24.2 | 19.2 | 29.9 | ||||||||
Profit after Tax | 5.6 | 11.1 | 11.9 | 13.8 | 50.4 | ||||||||
EPS (USc)*** | 45 | 79.5 | 86.5 | 98.9 | 382 | ||||||||
EPS - adj (USc)*** | 44 | 98.6 | 135 | 132 | 144 | ||||||||
** EBITDA is before Other Income | |||||||||||||
*** EPS numbers are after an effective 1 for 5 share consolidation on the 26th of | |||||||||||||
June 2017 |
Capital Structure | |
Shares in issue (m) * | 11.5 |
Options (m) | 0.038 |
Cash (30 Mar 2020) | $12.6m |
Net Assets (31 Dec 2019) | $125m |
Listing and Trading | |
Share price (15th Apr 2020) | $12.00 |
Market capitalisation (15th Apr 2020) | $137m |
52 week low/high (US$) | 5.29 - 12.00 |
12M Avg. daily liquidity (shares/day) | 23,000 |
Shareholders | % |
Management and directors | 4.2 |
Allan Gray (South African Institution) | 18.0 |
Sales Promotion Services | 7.4 |
Fremiro Investments | 6.3 |
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Resources
Increased exploration expenditure bears fruit
Consistent resource replacement despite growing production (250koz mined since 2011)
Contained Ounces (koz)
2,000
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
963
887 | ||||||||||||||
623 | ||||||||||||||
408 | 390 | 550 | 419 | |||||||||||
398 | 462 | |||||||||||||
353 | 425 | |||||||||||||
62 | 56 | 55 | 267 | 362 | ||||||||||
55 | 87 | |||||||||||||
172 | 223 | |||||||||||||
193 | 157 | |||||||||||||
144 | 128 | |||||||||||||
113 | 246 | 250 | ||||||||||||
296 | 263 | 252 | 262 | 214 | 194 | 186 | 115 | 130 | ||||||
2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | ||||||
Proven | Probable | Indicated | Inferred | |||||||||||
- A discovery cost of approximately $4.40 per ounce of gold since 2013
- Investment in infrastructure at depth will enable continued exploration drilling and resource delineation
- As at September 2018, Resource grade is well above mined head grade: M&I grade of 3.72g/t; Inferred grade of 4.52g/t; 2019 head grade of approximately 3.3g/t
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Dividend
A long-standing commitment to paying a dividend
Due to the uncertain business environment associated with the COVID-19 Pandemic, the board of directors has decided to defer its approval of the declaration of the second quarterly dividend of 2020. The board will keep this decision under constant review as it monitors prevailing market conditions.
- Caledonia has paid dividends since 2012
- Initial dividend of 5 Canadian cents paid Feb 2013 associated with share consolidation
- Annual dividend of 5 Canadian cents for 2012 paid in April 2013
- Quarterly dividends commenced in Jan 2014 at 1.5 Canadian cents per quarter
- Jan 2016: dividends were denominated in US dollars at 1.125 US cents per quarter
- April 2016: Caledonia redomiciles from Canada to Jersey; dividends no longer incur Canadian withholding tax resulting in an effective increase for UK shareholders
- Oct 2016: quarterly dividend increased to 1.375 cents
- July 2017: quarterly dividend increased to 6.875 US cents to reflect 1 for 5 share consolidation
- Jan 2020: quarterly dividend increased to 7.5 cents
Cumulative Dividend Distributions of $2.27 per share since 2012
2.5 | 0.25 | |||||||||
($/share) | 2 | 0.2 | ||||||||
1.5 | 0.15 | |||||||||
Dividend | ||||||||||
1 | 9% 0.1 | |||||||||
Cumulative | 22% | | ||||||||
0.5 | 0.05 | |||||||||
0 | 0 | |||||||||
2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | |||
Annual Dividends | Quarterly Dividends paid in CAD$ | Quarterly Dividends | paid in US$ |
Central Shaft:
Near-term growth
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Investing in growth to 80koz/year from 2022
Constructing a new mine below the current workings (2015 to 2020)
6m diameter, 4-compartment shaft
from surface to 1,200m.
Scheduled for commissioning late 2020
Shaft sinking completed in July 2019;
currently shaft equipping
Mining and exploration access below 750m; improve operational efficiency; secure mine life to 2034
$63m invested since Jan 2015 fully
funded from internal cash flows
Central Shaft will result in a major improvement in production, costs and flexibility
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New Central Shaft drives development of sub-750m zones
Constructing a new mine below the current workings
Central Shaft | No. 4 Shaft | |||
Jethro Shaft | ||||
22 | ||||
Level | ||||
No. 6 Winze | ||||
(750m) | ||||
Plan illustrative and not to scale
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New infrastructure is transformational for the Blanket Mine
Improves haulage and worker logistics
Sinking completed mid 2019, currently in a 12-month equipping phase
Commissioning and ramp-up expected in H2 2020
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Strong free cash flows expected from 2020 onwards
Declining capex and increasing cash generation
45 | Historic Data | @ Budget $1,600/oz | |||
40 | |||||
35 | |||||
30 | |||||
9 | |||||
M&I Resources only as
per NI 43-101
Technical Report
- Production post 2022 is expected to come from a combination of Measured, Indicated and Inferred Resources.
US$m
25 | |||||
20 | |||||
15 | 31 | ||||
10 | 23 | 22 | 20 | 22 | |
19 | 20 | ||||
18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | ||
16 | |||||
5 |
29 30 *
37 38
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-
Existing Inferred Resources - 963k ounces
at a grade of 4.5g/t - Blanket has an operating track record 112 years, historic inferred conversion rate have been good
*
0 | Cash Flow | Capital | Cash Flow | Capital | Cash Flow | Capital | Cash Flow | Capital | Cash Flow | Capital | Cash Flow | Capital | ||||||
2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | |||||||||||||
Actual | Actual | Actual | Actual | Actual | Est |
8 | 8 | 7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Cash Flow | Capital | Cash Flow | Capital | Cash Flow | Capital | Cash Flow | Capital | Cash Flow | Capital | Cash Flow | Capital | Cash Flow | Capital | Cash Flow | Capital | Cash Flow | Capital | Cash Flow | Capital | Cash Flow | Capital | ||||||||||
2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | |||||||||||||||||||||
Est | Est | Est | Est | Est | Est | Est | Est | Est | Est | Est |
Central Shaft Capex | Operating Cash Flow | |||
- Operating cash flow and capital expenditure forecasts for Blanket Mine are extracted from the technical report dated 13 February 2018 entitled "National Instrument 43-101 Technical Report on the Blanket Mine,
Gwanda Area, Zimbabwe (Updated February 2018), a copy of which was filed by the Company on SEDAR on March 2, 2018 using a gold price of $1,214 per ounce. These forecasts are for Blanket Mine and | ||
exclude Caledonia's G&A costs, inter-company adjustments and the export credit incentive for Zimbabwean gold producers | ||
• | Cash flow forecasts in 2023 and 2024 include only production from M&I resources as per National Instrument 43-101 standards. Management anticipate supplementing production from inferred resources as | |
* | these resources are delineated with further exploration work. | 15 |
Attractive new opportunities
in Zimbabwe
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The Zimbabwe Opportunity
World-class gold potential: under-explored and under-capitalized
Historic & current 1Moz+ producers | Significant regional potential | |
- Zimbabwe has historically produced over 45 million ounces of gold
- Prior to 2000, Zimbabwe produced more gold than Mali, Tanzania, Burkina Faso and Guinea
- Several prolific gold belts with potential for further multi million-ounce discoveries
Harare
Production: >4Moz
Existing Resources: approx. 1.9Moz
Average Grade: approximately 3g/t
Gweru
Production: >15Moz
Existing Resources: approx. 1.9Moz
Average Grade: approximately 3g/t
Bulawayo
Production: >2.5Moz
Existing Resources: approx. 6.5Moz
Average Grade: 2.5g/t - 5g/t
Gwanda Greenstone Belt - Including Blanket Mine
Production: >2.5Moz
Existing Resources: approx. 2.7Moz
Average Grade: 3.5g/t - 5g/t
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The Zimbabwe Opportunity
Evaluation Criteria
- New investment opportunities in Zimbabwe where surplus cash arising from Central Shaft could be deployed
- Brownfield projects
- modest initial acquisition cost
- modest initial resource base
- further investment over 2-3 years with the objective of identifying a significant compliant resource
base
- projects may have potential for modest near-term production e.g. from shallow oxide material and/or re-treating tailings/dumps
- Strict evaluation criteria for new projects:
- scale: minimum target resource 1Moz; minimum target production of 50,000 ounces per annum
- must enhance NPV per share and, eventually, dividend per share
- Caledonia does not intend to chase low-margin production which dilute shareholder value
- Long term objective: to identify sufficient resources to support a mid-tier gold, Zimbabwe-focussed gold producer
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Zimbabwe
Challenging but grounds for optimism
- Government has a commercial and pragmatic approach with several encouraging policy measures
- Genuine attempts to stimulate investment e.g. the removal of indigenisation requirement
- Government is reducing its spending, increasing its tax base and addressing its offshore debts
- Modest cuts to domestic spending and increased taxes has resulted in an $800m Budget Surplus in H1 2019
- Proposed repeal the of the Public Order and Security Act (POSA) and Access to Information and Protection of Privacy Act (AIPPA), which are the major obstacles to a normalisation of relations with the USA
- Two factors are of critical importance to create a conducive investment and operating environment
- Re-introductionof Zimbabwe dollar in February 2019 allows local inflation to be absorbed
- Continued access to US$ to make payments out of Zimbabwe
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Investment Case - Summary
14 years of high margin operations with upside potential
- A strong track record and robust operator
- highly profitable and cash generative
- strong management team: proven track record and excellent in-country relations
- Substantial, near-term,fully-funded production growth
- A 6-year investment programme is now substantially de- risked and very close to completion
- 45% production growth planned
- Increasing cash generation expected from 2020: higher production; lower costs; reduced capex
- Attractive dividend yield with scope for further increases
- One of the highest yields in the gold industry
- A historic commitment to dividends
- Increased cash flow could support further dividend increases
- Exciting new growth opportunities
- Zimbabwe is a highly prospective and under-explored gold region
- Caledonia is uniquely positioned: a strong local presence
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Contacts
Website:www.caledoniamining.com
Share Codes: NYSE MKT and AIM - CMCL
TSX - CAL
Caledonia Contacts:
Mark Learmonth, CFO
Tel: +44 (0) 1534 679 800
Email:marklearmonth@caledoniamining.com
Maurice Mason, VP Corporate Development & Investor Relations
Tel: +44 (0) 759 078 1139
Email:mauricemason@caledoniamining.com
Investment Research | |
WH Ireland | www.whirelandplc.com |
Cantor Fitzgerald | www.cantor.com |
North America IR (3ppb LLC) : Patrick Chidley, Paul Durham
Tel : +1 917 991 7701; +1 203 940 2538
European IR: Swiss Resource Capital Jochen Staiger
Tel: +41 71 354 8501
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Disclaimer
Caledonia Mining Corporation plc published this content on 21 April 2020 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 14 May 2020 10:24:09 UTC