Monthly Chart Book: September Economic Chart Book (Snapshot)

September Economic Chart Book

(Snapshot)

September 2019

Torsten Slok, Ph.D.

Chief International Economist

Managing Director

60 Wall Street

New York, New York 10005

Tel: [phone]

[e-mail]

Matthew Barnard

Associate Director of N.A. Compnay Research

Managing Director

60 Wall Street

New York, New York 10005

Tel: [phone]

[e-mail]

DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MCI(P) 066/04/2019

September Economic Chart Book (Snapshot)

Enclosed are select charts from Torsten's September Economic Chart Book

discussing:

• Trade Ware escalation and how its impacting the major economic centers
• The collapse in global bond yields and what it could mean for recession risks
• Reaction functions by the FOMC and other major Central Banks
• Current State of the Consumer

Link to Torsten Slok's full September Economic Chart Book can be found here.

Deutsche Bank Research

Torsten Slok, [e-mail] [phone]

September 2019

1

Highly unusual disconnect: Global manufacturing

in deep recession. Service sector doing fine

%			Percentage of countries with global PMIs below 50		%
					Manufacturing		Services
100												100
90												90
80												80
70												70
60												60
50												50
40												40
30												30
20												20
10												10
0												0
98	99	00 01	02 03	04 05	06 07	08 09	10	11 12	13 14	15 16	17 18	19

Countries included are Austria, UK, US, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Switzerland, Canada, Japan, Greece, Ireland, Spain, Turkey, Istanbul , Australia, New Zealand , Brazil , Colombia , Mexico, Israel, Myanmar , Taiwan, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam ,Russia , China, Czech Republic and Poland

Source: IHSM, Haver Analytics, DB Global Research

Deutsche Bank Research

Torsten Slok, [e-mail] [phone]

September 2019

2

Trade war hitting global trade hard

% y/y					Singapore exports				% y/y
Domestic exports: non-oil		Domestic exports: electronics	Merchandise exports
50												50
40												40
30												30
20												20
10												10
0												0
-10												-10
-20												-20
-30												-30
-40									Trade war escalates	-40
07	08	09	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19

Source: International Enterprise Singapore, Haver Analytics, DB Global Research

Deutsche Bank Research

Torsten Slok, [e-mail] [phone]

September 2019

3

US: Capex and exports not doing well

%y/y	Business investments and exports	%y/y
		Real private nonresidential fixed investment		Real exports of goods & services

15									15
10									10
5									5
0									0
-5									-5
						Correlation=0.75
-10									-10
-15									-15
-20									-20
2000	2002	2004	2006	2008	2010	2012	2014	2016	2018

Source: BEA, Haver Analytics, DB Global Research

Deutsche Bank Research

Torsten Slok, [e-mail] [phone]

September 2019

4