Welcome to the world of Encavis - Strategic Outlook >> Fast Forward 2025
Encavis AG, Conference Call 08 January 2020
The use of
infinite resources - this is our future
3
New era - Growing PPA market
Encavis is a European first mover
4
Conservative acquisition strategy for markets with FiT (Feed-in-Tariffs) will be pursued as in the past
We acquire ready-to-build,turnkey-projects or existing parks with Feed-in-Tariffs and operate them over their technical and
commercial life time | >7% |
>10 years of experience in these markets still | >7% |
>6% | |
allow for numerous acquisition opportunities in | |
established markets with satisfying IRRs | >5% |
Falling interest rates create an increasing | >6% |
competition for FiT projects | |
However, Encavis reiterates its commitment to
Post tax equity IRR for FiT
stated IRR expectations
>8%
PV projects/higher for wind Market presence for FiT
Market entry planned for FiT
5
Competitive generation costs of PV & wind projects opens new business opportunities
Development of global levelized costs of electricity | Forecasted generation costs for large-scale PV |
(USD real 2018 /MWh) | and 2020 Forward Prices1(EUR/MWh) |
350 | |||||
300 | |||||
250 | |||||
200 | |||||
150 | |||||
100 | |||||
50 | |||||
0 | |||||
2010 | 2012 | 2014 | 2016 | 2018 | 2019 |
1H | 1H | 1H | 1H | 1H | 1H |
Solar-PV | Onshore wind |
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
66 | |||||||||||||||||||
64 | |||||||||||||||||||
61 | |||||||||||||||||||
59 | |||||||||||||||||||
57 | |||||||||||||||||||
45 | 51 | ||||||||||||||||||
Merchant PPA | 40 | 44 | |||||||||||||||||
opportunity | |||||||||||||||||||
34
Spain Italy France Germany UK 2019 expected generations cost for PV
2020 Electricity Forward Price (Dec)
! | In Southern-European markets the generation costs of renewables are already below prices of |
2019 Electricity Forwards. This boosts PPA-Markets in countries such as Spain and Italy. | |
Source: : BNEF, Fraunhofer ISE, Fraunhofer ISE Energy Charts, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, 1. Baseload Futures Year Ahead last price am 06.12.2019
6
Conservative acquisition strategy for markets with PPA projects with increasing importance
We acquire ready-to-build,turnkey-projects
or existing parks and negotiate Power Purchase Agreements with companies with very good ratings and operate them over their technical and commercial life time
Our experience from PPA negotiations in Spain (500 MW PV) and UK (40 MW PV) enables Encavis to move to emerging PPA markets like Italy and - in time to come - Germany and France
IRR minimum requirement depends more on risk distribution and rating of the off-taker, to a lesser extent on regulatory risk
>7%
>8% | Post tax equity IRR for PPA |
>8% |
PV projects/higher for wind
Market presence for PPA
Market entry planned for PPA
7
Worldwide growth in generating capacity of renewables by technology - mostly driven by PPAs
Capacity growth in GW
1000 | |
800 | |
600 | 28 % |
400 | |
200 | 14 |
92 | |
0 | 39 |
82 % | ||
68 % | ||
44 | ||
45 % | 45 | 119 |
215 | ||
438 | ||
31 | 260 | |
176 | ||
36 | 285 | 321 |
134 |
Percentage of PV/Wind of total
Other
Hydropower
Solar
Wind
1994 - 2004 2005 - 2010 2011 - 2016 2017 - 2022
Source: International Energy Agency 2017
8
The need for green energy supply is driving PPA markets
Top offtakers by capacity and source
3.015 | ||||||||
Google Inc | 172 | 3.187 | ||||||
Amazon | 344 | 875 | 1.219 | |||||
Microsoft Corp | 739 | 759 | ||||||
549 | ||||||||
Apple Inc | 200 | 749 | ||||||
Norsk Hydro ASA | 744 | |||||||
690 | 725 | |||||||
ACT Government | 619 | 669 | Solar-PV | |||||
Wind | ||||||||
Market developments
North American market with pioneering role
US companies search partners for PPAs in Europe
ENCAVIS registers increasing demand for PPAs
also in Europe (Nordics, Spain, Italy, Ireland, Germany)
Major PPA deal in Europe in 2017:
Norsk Hydro signed PPA until 2039 for 650 MW wind park in Sweden
PPAs are contracted for time periods from 6 - 20 years
9
Market entry in Spanish PPA market with 300 MW PV park "Talayuela" in realization
Highlights:
> | Generation capacity: | 300 MW | ||||
> Total investment volume in EUR: | ~225 m | |||||
Equity/project debt finance level: | 43:57 | |||||
Full loan repayment within PPA | ||||||
runtime of | 10 years | |||||
Talayuela | > | Co-investor: Solarcentury with | ~20% | |||
> | Long-term PPA contract with | |||||
fixed price for | 10 years | |||||
> | Revenues 1styear of full operation | |||||
in EUR: | ~25 m | |||||
> | Post-tax IRR: | >8% | ||||
> | Connected to the grid | late 2020 | ||||
10
Entering the Spanish Corporate PPA market with 200 MW PV park "Cabrera" in realization
Highlights:
> | Generation capacity: | ~200 MW | ||||
> Total investment volume in EUR: | ~158 m | |||||
Equity/project debt finance level: | ca. 50:50 | |||||
Full loan repayment within PPA | ||||||
runtime of | 10 years | |||||
> | Co-investor: Solarcentury with | ~20% | ||||
> | Long-term PPA contract (149 MW) | |||||
Cabrera | with Amazon with fixed price for | 10 years | ||||
> | Revenues 1st year of full operation | |||||
in EUR: | ~16.4 m | |||||
> | Post-tax IRR: | ~ 8% | ||||
> | Connected to the grid | late 2020 | ||||
11
Strong growing PPA-markets - ENCAVIS is a European first mover in solar
Pillars of the Encavis Growth Strategy >> Fast Forward 2025
- Encavis has secured preferred access toknow-how for PPA by establishing a dedicated in-house competence team and by investing in market leading competence platform Pexapark.
- Leveraging knowledge and network as experienced investor based on recently signed PPAs with a leading European Utility and Amazon for in total 500 MW Spanish solar plants.
- Strong Balance Sheet with equity ratio > 24% giving corporates adequate comfort to handle risks fromlong-term PPA contracts.
- Access to early stage projects without taking direct development risk by signing numerous partnership agreements with exclusive rights in Italy, France, Spain, Netherlands, Denmark and Germany.
12
Strategic outlook:
>> Fast Forward 2025
13
ENCAVIS Growth Programme: >> Fast Forward 2025
Growth Initiative
- Investment in RTB and securingearly-stage projects primarily focused on PPA markets
- Ongoing opportunistic acquisitions in FiT markets
- European focus for the time being
- Disposal of minority participations in projects (mainly wind parks) to diversify local wind risk and to recycle cash
Economies of Scale and Scope
- Optimisation of O&M cost
- Optimisation ofSPV-financing
- Cash pooling
14
ENCAVIS Growth Strategy: >> Fast Forward 2025
> Doubling of signed own capacity of 1.7 GW (2019) to 3.4 GW
- Increasing revenue (wa) from 260 to 440 million EUR
- Increasing oper. EBITDA (wa) from 210 to 330 million EUR
- Oper. EBITDA margin of 75%
- Increasing oper. EPS (wa) from 0.40 EUR
to 0.70 EUR | > Growth rate of signed own capacity of 12% CAGR |
- Revenue (wa) growth rate of 9% CAGR
- Oper. EBITDA (wa) growth rate of 8% CAGR
> Oper. EPS (wa) growth rate of 10% CAGR > Solid equity ratio of 24% or more
15
Selected measures to fulfill >> Fast Forward 2025
Pipeline | > Currently five strategic partnerships with developers signed |
> Pipeline of 2.0 Gigawatt (GW) minimum secured | |
Capacity Growth | > 1.7 GW of signed own capacity end of 2019 will be doubled to |
3.4 GW end of 2025 | |
> Thereof currently 1.2 GW connected to the grid, end of 2020 | |
1.7 GW and approx. 3.0 GW end of 2025 | |
Recycling of Cash | > Sale of minority stakes up to 49% will be continued |
> Doubled capacity incl. diversified local wind risks | |
Recycling of Debt | > Shifting EUR ~100 million of debt p.a. from SPV to corporate |
level | |
16
Growth strategy based on 2019 fundamentals only
Profitable growth outside Europe
Profitable business models in storage technology
Potential reserves in equity capital market transactions and dividend policy post 2021
Further opportunities in
Mergers & Acquisitions
Base case scenario:
>> Fast Forward 2025
Encavis AG
Große Elbstraße 59
22767 Hamburg, Germany
Fon: +49 40 3785 62 242
Email: ir@encavis.com
January 2020
The information provided in this document has been derived from sources that we believe to be reliable. However, we cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this information and we do not assume any responsibility for it. Encavis AG assumes no liability for any errors or omissions or for any resulting financial losses. Investments in capital markets, in particular in stock markets and futures markets, are fundamentally associated with risks and a complete loss of the invested capital cannot be ruled out. Recommendations provided herein do not represent an offer to buy or sell and are not intended to replace comprehensive and thorough advice before making a decision to buy or sell. Copies of the content of this presentation, in particular prints and copies or publications in electronic media, will only be authorized by written consent from Encavis AG.
Attachments
- Original document
- Permalink
Disclaimer
Encavis AG published this content on 08 January 2020 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 08 January 2020 08:32:01 UTC