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MarketScreener Homepage  >  Equities  >  Nasdaq  >  ICF International, Inc.    ICFI

ICF INTERNATIONAL, INC.

(ICFI)
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ICF International : Investor Day Presentation

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12/03/2019 | 02:48pm EST

Welcome

Investor Day 2019

Cautionary Statement

Certain statements made by us in this presentation that are not historical facts or that relate to future plans, events, or performances are forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. Our actual results may differ materially from those expressed in any forward-looking statements made by us. All statements made by us in this presentation are qualified in all respects by the information disclosed in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission and specifically, the risks described therein under the heading "Risk Factors". We are under no duty to update or revise any forward-looking statements pursuant to actual results or events, and do not intend to do so.

2

Growth is in our DNA

3

4

ICF Strengths

Revenue and

Steady margin

earnings

expansion

growth across

over time

U.S. presidential

administrations

80% of business

Strong cash

with stable long-

flow translating

term backlog and

into shareholder

contracts

value creation

5

Strong performance across U.S. administrations

Revenue ($MM)

Bush Administration

Obama Administration

Trump Administration

1,600

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

-

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019*

Source: 10-K Filings *Midpoint of 2019 guidance affirmed on November 6, 2019

Sustained growth

Support for broad array of

Professional

Innovation

driven by:

government

agility

missions

6

Effective use of leverage

With strong financial market support, ICF has effectively levered up for opportunities and paid down debt

Bank Leverage Ratio

3.00x

2.50x

2.00x

1.50x

1.00x

0.50x

0.00x

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Debt to Bank EBITDA

7

Strong value creation since IPO

ICF has delivered above average total shareholder return compared with major indices

as of Nov. 20, 2019

2006 - 2019

800

CAGR

700

ICFI

600

15.8%

500

400

v

NASDAQ

300

10.7%

200

S&P 500

100

6.7%

-

-06

-07

-08

-09

-10

-11

-12

-13

-14

-15

-16

-17

-18

-19

Sep

Sep

Sep

Sep

Sep

Sep

Sep

Sep

Sep

Sep

Sep

Sep

Sep

Sep

8

ICF: a proven player with significant growth upside

Opportunity to

Unique portfolio

Demonstrated

grow

combining deep

agility

domain expertise

with IT +

engagement

capabilities

9

Business

Overview

Presented by:

John Wasson, President and Chief Executive Officer

Investor Day 2019

10

ICF's growth strategy

Sustaining and

Increasing scale

Building out service

growing expertise

in implementation

offerings at the

in core vertical

to win larger

intersections of

markets

contracts

markets and

functional expertise

Increased emphasis on innovation and expanding strategic client relationships

11

Synergy in markets and capabilities

Advisory + Strategy

Program Management

Technology,

Analytics +

Engagement

Energy, Environment + Infrastructure 44%

Consumer + Financial

10%

Health + Social Programs 38%

Safety + Security 8%

  • Proprietary IP/ loyalty programs
  • Workforce of long-time industry experts
  • Longstanding client relationships
  • Long-termcontract vehicles

Revenue percentages are based on Q3 2019 TTM financial performance released on November 6, 2019

12

ICF culture: a source of competitive advantage

Purpose

To build a more prosperous and resilient world for all.

Values

Interact with Integrity Bring Your Passion Embrace Differences Challenge Assumptions Work Together

Be Greater Than

13

Performance since Investor Day 2016

Revenue: GAAP EPS:

2016-2019*2016-2019*

CAGR CAGR

7.9% 16.0%

*Midpoint of 2019 guidance affirmed on November 6, 2019

Employees:

Number of full- and part-time employees

13.6%

14

Opportunity overview

Large, growing markets

Attractive margins

Federal services

Federal services

Government

Commercial specialty

(non-DoD)

(DoD) $90 - 100B

margins typically

consulting margins

$70 - 80B

per year*

range 7 - 11%

(i.e., energy) typically

per year*

low teens

Commercial

Commercial

Commercial

energy/

marketing services

marketing services

environmental

and

margins

services

technology $50B

typically mid- to

$7 - 10B per

per year**

high teens

year**

*ICF estimates based on analysis of non-set-aside contract actions from 2018 Federal Procurement Data Systems ** ICF estimates based on third-party analyst reports

15

Keys to sustained growth

Demonstrated

Roughly 50-50 split

Similar split expected

performance in 13

between organic and

to continue

years since IPO

M&A growth

16

Catalysts for continued organic growth

Federal

  • Civilian agency spending
  • Public health
  • Next gen IT
  • Citizen engagement

Marketing Services

  • Personalization/loyalty
  • Digital transformation
  • Data convergence

State + Local

  • Disaster management: recovery and mitigation
  • Infrastructure spending

Commercial Energy

  • Energy efficiency outsourcing
    in California
  • Distributed energy resources
  • Resilience planning

17

M&A focus areas

Government

Next gen IT / digital transformation

Health & Human

Services (HHS)

Citizen engagement

Commercial

Energy

Advisory services

Grid, asset + customer analytics

Distributed energy resource management

Digital transformation

18

Investor Day 2019

Take a deeper

Gain greater

Meet a broader

dive into

understanding

cross-section of

growth

of ICF's unique

ICF leaders

catalysts

positioning

in key markets

19

Agenda

  1. Federal Market
  2. Disaster Management
  3. ICF Next
  4. Commercial Energy
  5. Financials
  6. Wrap-up
  7. Q&A
  8. Breakout Sessions

20

The Federal Market

Presented by:

Mark Lee, Senior Vice President, Public Sector

Jen Welham, Senior Vice President, Health and Human Services

Investor Day 2019

21

Market opportunity

Strong partnerships with nearly every federal agency

% of ICF revenues by agency*

$632B

2019 federal civilian budget

$77B+

Addressable federal civilian market

Mid-single digits

Percentage of growth in 2019 budgets

+4%

2020 federal civilian topline spending agreement

HHS 16%

DOD 6%

DOS 4%

EPA 2%

HUD 1%

DOT 1%

DOJ 1%

Other Federal 7%

Other Non-federal 62%

*ICF estimates based on analysis of non-set-aside contract actions from 2018 Federal Procurement Data Systems

*Based on Q3 2019 TTM financial performance released on November 6, 2019

22

Growth drivers

IncreasedAging

budgetsworkforce

Need for IT

Rising public

modernization

health

and enhanced

challenges

cyber protection

23

Differentiators

Deep subject-

Full-suite of

Diverse agency

matter

capabilities

clients

expertise

Health, energy,

IT, cybersecurity,

Work with

environment,

analytics,

numerous agencies

education, social

communications,

corresponding to

programs,

engagement, workforce

different parts of

international

development, program

Federal mission

development,

implementation,

transportation

training

Innovative approach

Named an "Industry Innovator"

Received highest scores in innovation in government brand survey

24

Record business development pipeline

$B

3.8

3.6

3.4

3.2

3

2.8

2.6

2.4

2.2

2

Up ~50% over the last three years

ICF federal pipeline, 2016 - YTD 2019*

2016

2017

2018

2019

*Annual average over four quarters; average over 3 quarters for 2019

25

Technology capabilities

Data

IT

Cybersecurity

Engagement

Workforce

analytics

modernization

operations,

+ design

development

R&D

26

Health capabilities

Deep subject matter expertise

Substance abuse (vaping, opioids) Infectious disease (HIV, malaria) Chronic disease (cancer, diabetes) Mental health (suicide prevention)

Full suite of services Disease surveillance

Research + evaluation

Survey design + data collection Training + technical assistance Translation + dissemination

27

OIG

Health and Human Services Office of Inspector

General

Predictive Analytics to Fight Fraud,

Waste and Abuse

$60 - $90B

Potential prevented/recovered fraudulent Medicare funds

Leveraging

Building tools

Incorporating

advanced

that enable

user experience

data analytics

self-serve data

design elements

queries

CASE STUDY

28

BioSense

A platform for actionable public health insights

4,000

hospitals and outpatient centers reporting

2-4M

messages processed daily

60%

of emergency dept visits reported daily

CASE STUDY

29

Disaster Management

Presented by:

Andrew LaVanway, Senior Vice President, Division Lead

Brandy Bones, Senior Director, Recovery Program Expert

Investor Day 2019

31

Market opportunity

HUD CDBG-DR market

FEMA market

Fed-funded mitigation market

Total Funding

(1992 - 2019)

Active Funding

(Addressable

now)

Active

Grants

Active

Grantees

$89.7 billion*

$38.7 billion

137

58

Numbers in $Millions

20000

10000

0

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Annual

Supplemental

$2.4B

FEMA

HMGP

$3B

FEMA BRIC

$15.9B

CDBG-MIT

3%-10% of funding is addressable market

*Total funding for the Road Home was $9.022 billion

Source: Congressional Research Service

FEMA mitigation estimates are for next 6 years and

Source: HUD OCPD - HUDExchange.info

depend on disaster costs

32

Key trends creating a more favorable market

Unprecedented need

Lower peaks + fewer valleys

Fragmented competition

Limited talent

Extreme weather events will continue

Consistent FEMA funding (>$7 billion/year)

More emphasis on whole community recovery

Ability to find and/or build talent is critical to success

33

Building on Past Success

2019

2020

2013

2018

2019

2018

FEMA Public

FEMA Building

2006

Manages billion-dollar

Awarded

Assistance

FEMA 406

Resilient

recoveries for N.Y.,

2 FEMA

Acquire DMS

work expanded

Mitigation

Infrastructure

Manages $9.022

N.J., and Conn.

Public

with a sizable

work

&

billion La. Road

following Superstorm

Assistance

portfolio of

New FEMA

begins in

Communities

Home Program

Sandy

contracts in

FEMA work +

wins in N.C.,

P.R.

Launches

P.R.

personnel

La., N.Y .

Yesterday

Today

Tomorrow

2007-2011

2017-2019

Works with HUD

Delivers HUD

to "write the

CDBG-DR

book on CDBG &

Problem

CDBG-DR"

Solving Clinic

for grantees

key FEMA CDBG-DR Mitigation

Owning a strong position in HUD

CDBG-DR disaster recovery

2018

2018

2019

Lead TA

Selected for 3

Awarded

provider to

CDBG-DR

housing

U.S.V.I.

projects in

recovery

Tex.

program in

P.R.

Expanding CDBG, building a strong position in FEMA disaster response and recovery

2019 2019-2020Implementing HUD N.C.'s Buyout announces

Program

rules for CDBG-

MIT funding

ICF Awarded

Mo. MIT

Planning

Using recovery as opportunity to mitigate and build resiliency

34

Supporting communities across the full disaster lifecycle and all funding sources

Mitigation Preparedness

Recovery Response

35

Putting mitigation into practice

Supporting Columbia,

Improving stormwater

Building a

South Carolina after

resilience in the

climate-ready

historic flooding

City of Miami Beach

Philadelphia

Photo credit: Cassie Bhat

36

The ICF advantage

ICF has won nearly a half-billion

dollars in contract awards across the disaster lifecycle since 2018

Our people

Working 3 of the largest disaster recovery programs in U.S. history

20+ year Federal, state and local partnerships

Training to build internal talent and capacity

Work with unwavering passion and integrity

Our approach

Operations span multiple ICF divisions

Offer capabilities across communications, energy, security, workforce development, economic analysis, data modeling and more

Breaking down barriers between recovery and resilience disciplines

Our delivery

+14,000 FEMA PA projects formulated and in progress

~$15 billion CDBG-DR funds managed and delivered to communities

Obligated $1.9B in FEMA funding in the first year, more than any other disaster in U.S. history

37

Presented by:

John Armstrong, President, ICF Next

Kris Tremaine, Managing Partner, ICF Next

40

ICF's go-to-market brand for integrated digital + engagement services

$350M+

40%

Annual revenue across a

balanced portfolio

Government

Opportunity

60%

pipeline is +3X

Commercial

revenue

41

Capabilities and differentiators

Loyalty

Technology

Analytics

Engagement

Strategy

Combines creativity of

Designs solutions

Built specifically to

an agency with deep

that drive real

realize the benefits

domain expertise of

participation with

of an integrated

a consultancy

customers, citizens,

model

colleagues

42

Consumer

-

Financial

-

Government

-

Health

-

Travel

-

Hospitality

-

Energy

__

Transportation

43 43

10x Gold and

6x PR Agency of

Silver Lions

the Year

-

-

2018 Cannes

PR Week and The

Lions Festival of

Sabre Awards

Creativity (in one

(since 2014)

year)

Multi-time

Marketing

Federal

"Leader" in

Cloud

Experience

customer loyalty

Partner of

Award

solutions and in

the Year

-

digital experience

-

The Center for

-

Adobe

Digital

The Forrester WaveTM

Government

"ICF Next is probably the most prolific producer of breakthrough creative work in the industry … and it's become clear that, in most cases, the creativity drives compelling business performance for its clients."

  • The Holmes Report, naming ICF Next its 2018 Specialist Agency of the Year

44

Growth drivers

Marketing technology

Customer loyalty

Market $50B+

Market $3.5B

Personalization at scale

Data convergence

Healthcare

Large federal campaigns

Market $10B+

Market $1.9B

Disruption & transformation

Citizen engagement

Sources:

1. Published NAICS codes; 2. WARC: 2019 and Beyond (US and UK MarTech Spend); 3. Maximize Market Research: 2019; 4. Private consulting report

45

Centers for Disease

Control and Prevention

Real stories of the opioid epidemic

Supporting CDC in the fight against prescription drug overdose

80%

27%

of intended

Intend to avoid using

audience

prescription opioids

saw a campaign

because of exposure to

video

the campaign

CASE STUDY

46

Fortune 100 Healthcare Client

Transforming the health of the community, one person at a time

Delivering strategy, transformation, experience, marketing and engagement initiatives

2M

2X

10/10

Enrollees from

Increase in

Continuous client

product launch

leads from paid

satisfaction rating

to becoming a

marketing

from over 150

category leader

campaign for

projects and

open

campaigns across

enrollment

client's business

CASE STUDY

47

Hilton Honors

"…to be the most customer centric loyalty program."

  • Mark Weinstein SVP & Global Head of Customer Engagement, Loyalty and Partnerships

Hilton Honors continuous evolution, ensures the best member experience possible

100%

75%

30%

Improvement on

Faster checkout

Increase in

annual member tier

process. Members

membership

requalification

see account activity

growth

within hours

CASE STUDY

48

Commercial Energy

Presented by:

Sergio Ostria, Executive Vice President, Energy and Infrastructure Phil Mihlmester, Executive Vice President, Energy Division Lead Shanthi Muthiah, Senior Vice President, Power Markets Expert Anne Choate, Senior Vice President, Climate and Resiliency

Investor Day 2019

50

Market transformation drives market opportunity

From central station power

To distributed power, 2-way grid

generation

51

Capabilities and differentiators

Award-winning customer engagement

Leading edge proprietary technology & analytics

Power + fuel markets

Energy efficiency implementation

Climate

changeTraining +

resiliencedevelopment

Analytics

Distributed energy resources

Customer

engagement

Delivery of over

160 energy

efficiency

programs

Deep subject matter expertise

Grid modernization

52

Growth drivers

Energy

Distributed

Utility

efficiency

energy

resilience

resources (DER)

53

Energy efficiency

Market expected to grow from $2B to $3.3B by 2030

Numerous states

EE increasingly

EE program

California

have increased

viewed as a

updates fueled

has tripled its

EE spending

grid resource

by changes

EE outsourcing

in climate

requirement

Sources: ACEEE, LBNL, ICF analysis

54

Spotlight on California

IOUs are required to outsource 60% of EE programs by 2022 (20% today)

12 RFAs were issued in 2019 and 18 are expected in 2020

The RFP stage expected to continue into 2020

ICF's estimated addressable market: $250M+/year

ICF has responded to most RFAs with excellent success on down-selection to RFP stage

ICF is awaiting selection decisions on numerous proposals

Procurement schedules indicate contract negotiations with winning bidders in 2020

55

Distributed Energy Resources

Estimated addressable market sizes

$1-2B

Utilities challenged to

Initial utility pilot

EV market by 2030*

manage growth of

programs

$6-8B

DERs including solar,

focusing on

storage, and electric

battery storage

vehicles (EVs)

and EVs

NWA market over 10

years for load constrained substations**

$6-12B

Storage market over 20 years***

*EEI, ICF analysis

**EIA, NAS, NYPSC, ICF analysis

***EDF, ICF analysis

Total DER market could be as large as current energy efficiency market in the next 5-10 years

56

DER technology-based pilots

Planning Roadmaps Advise/Plan

Develop roadmap, sequence, priority of future initiatives

0-4 mos.

Design

Plan execution of roadmap elements, develop business case, design pilot

4-18 mos.

Implement Pilots

Develop vendor

selection,

customer

outreach

18-36 mos.

Scale and Implement Programs

Develop and implement utility programs based on pilots including programs, procurements and pricing mechanisms

18-48 mos.

Current ICF contracts

57

Helping customers control energy usage through innovative technologies

Testing smart thermostats, residential solar, battery storage and dynamic rates

Evaluating how adoption and use of these technologies impacts the grid

Global energy storage market

expected to grow to $620B by

*

2040

*Source: EDF

• 58

BGE and PHI

Incentivizing the EV market

BGE and PHI's EVsmart Pilots

  • Residential EV charger rebates
  • Multifamily EV charger rebates
  • Public charging stations network

ICF support includes:

  • Program implementation
  • Marketing and advertising
  • Web and IT solutions
  • Events and dealership outreach
  • Customer care and rebate processing
  • EV subject matter expert consultation

"EEI's member companies have invested over $1 billion on customer programs and projects to deploy charging infrastructure and to accelerate electric transportation, and we fully expect that number to rise."

CASE STUDY

59

Resilience to Climate/Weather Risks

More extreme

Since 2003, the

weather events in last

average annual # of

decade than prior 2

weather-related power

decades combined

outages has doubled

$21B

Resilience spending by electric and gas utilities in 2030*

80 cities have

Regulatory activity is

named Chief

driving spending

Resilience Officers

(e.g., CA, NY)

$100M

Addressable market for ICF advisory + implementation resilience services* to energy asset owners in 2030

*Source: EIA, EEI, Brattle, ICF analysis

60

ICF-led landmark

climate vulnerability study

Regulator-driven study provides risk analysis & recommendations for assets and operations

Regulators requiring implementation

  • $5.6B (~$90M/yr) required to address rising temperatures alone

CASE STUDY

61

Financial Strength

Presented by:

James Morgan, Chief Financial Officer

Investor Day 2019

63

Revenue and profit growth

Revenue ($ Millions)

Non-GAAP EPS

$1,475B - $1.500B

$5.00

$1,600

$4.50

$4.10 - $4.25

$4.00

$3.73

$1,400

$1,338

$1,185

$1,229

$3.50

$3.02

$1,200

$1,132

$2.87

$3.00

$2.64

$1,000

$2.50

$800

CAGR

$2.00

-GAAP

Non

.

-

yr

$600

5

.2%

$2.50

yr.CAGR

6

5

.4%

$400

$1.00

10

$200

$0.50

$0

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

$0.00

2015

2016

2017**

2018

2019

Guidance*

Guidance*

*Based on 2019 management guidance as of November 6, 2019

**2017 Non-GAAP EPS excludes the one-time benefit of a Deferred Tax Liability (DTL) revaluation for 2017, as a result of the 2017 Tax Reform Act

64

Solid margin expansion

Adjusted EBITDA to Service Revenue (SR)

14.00%

13.50%

13.00%

12.50%

12.00%

13.0%

12.7%

13.2%

13.6%

13.3% 13.4%

201420152016

  • Growth over last 5 years largely organic
  • Catalysts in our markets will drive continued growth

201720182019*

*Mid-point of Q319 Guidance with estimate of SR

Catalysts for continued profitability improvement

  • Improved revenue mix (more higher margin work)
  • Real estate / facilities consolidation
  • Process improvement

Larger contracts; driving efficiencies

65

Economies of scale lowers ratio of overhead costs

Balance sheet / cash flow metrics

  • Strong balance sheet
  • History of strong cash flow

Balance sheet ratios (as of 9/30/19)

Current ratio

1.51x

Debt to total capital

0.26x

Leverage ratio (Debt to EBITDA)

1.86x

Bank leverage ratio* (Debt to Bank EBITDA)

1.72x

  • Bank EBITDA: EBITDA plus non-cash compensation

Cash flow metrics

FCF as % of net income (1/1/15 - 9/30/19)

98%

DSO (9/30/19)

93.9

DSO excl. Puerto Rico (9/30/19)

76.0

2019 operating cash flow guidance

$80M 66

Capital allocation priorities (2019)*

Forecasted 2019 Capital Allocation of Expected Op Cash Flow (estimate as of 9/30/19)

Cash use priorities

CAPEX $27.4M

Dividends $10.5M

Support continued growth of ICF's business through M&A and capital

1

expenditures

2

Rebuild firepower (debt paydown)

Debt

Share

repayment

repurchase

$18.7M

$23.4M

3

Maintain dividend

4

Maintain stable share count

*Expected allocation for 2019 based on achieving operating cash flow guidance

67

M&A focus areas

Government

Next gen IT / digital transformation

Health & Human

Services (HHS)

Citizen engagement

Commercial

Energy

Advisory services

Grid, asset + customer analytics

Distributed energy resource management

Digital transformation

68

Demonstrated track record

Bank Leverage Ratio

3.00x

2.50x

2.00x

1.50x

1.00x

0.50x

0.00x

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Debt to Bank EBITDA

Total Shareholder Return - TSR

800

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

-

ICF I

S&P 500

NASDAQ

2006-2019

CAGR

ICFI 15.8%

NASDAQ 10.7%

S&P 500 6.7%

69

Summary

ICF has a history

Our investor-friendly

of solid financial

financial policy supports

performance

ongoing value creation

Strong balance

Significant attention on

sheet, reliable cash

identifying appropriate

flow, and attractive

acquisition targets to

financing enables

support our focus areas

future growth

of growth

70

Investor Day 2019

71

Key takeaways

Significant runway for organic growth across client set

Financial resources to support organic and acquisitive growth

Continue complementary and accretive acquisitions

Unique culture that drives excellent innovation, execution and collaboration

72

Disclaimer

ICF International Inc. published this content on 03 December 2019 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 03 December 2019 19:47:06 UTC

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Financials (USD)
Sales 2019 1 483 M
EBIT 2019 106 M
Net income 2019 72,1 M
Debt 2019 141 M
Yield 2019 0,71%
P/E ratio 2019 23,8x
P/E ratio 2020 21,8x
EV / Sales2019 1,23x
EV / Sales2020 1,06x
Capitalization 1 686 M
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Technical analysis trends ICF INTERNATIONAL, INC.
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Income Statement Evolution
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Mean consensus OUTPERFORM
Number of Analysts 7
Average target price 104,00  $
Last Close Price 89,65  $
Spread / Highest target 31,6%
Spread / Average Target 16,0%
Spread / Lowest Target -1,84%
EPS Revisions
Managers
NameTitle
John M. Wasson President, CEO, COO & Director
Sudhakar Kesavan Executive Chairman
James C. M. Morgan Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President
John M. George Chief Information Officer & Senior Vice President
Srikant T. Madhav Datar Independent Director
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