Welcome
Investor Day 2019
Cautionary Statement
Certain statements made by us in this presentation that are not historical facts or that relate to future plans, events, or performances are forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. Our actual results may differ materially from those expressed in any forward-looking statements made by us. All statements made by us in this presentation are qualified in all respects by the information disclosed in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission and specifically, the risks described therein under the heading "Risk Factors". We are under no duty to update or revise any forward-looking statements pursuant to actual results or events, and do not intend to do so.
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Growth is in our DNA
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4
ICF Strengths
Revenue and | Steady margin |
earnings | expansion |
growth across | over time |
U.S. presidential | |
administrations |
80% of business | Strong cash |
with stable long- | flow translating |
term backlog and | into shareholder |
contracts | value creation |
5
Strong performance across U.S. administrations
Revenue ($MM)
Bush Administration | Obama Administration | Trump Administration |
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
-
2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019* |
Source: 10-K Filings *Midpoint of 2019 guidance affirmed on November 6, 2019 | |||
Sustained growth | • Support for broad array of | • Professional | • Innovation |
driven by: | government | agility | |
missions |
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Effective use of leverage
With strong financial market support, ICF has effectively levered up for opportunities and paid down debt
Bank Leverage Ratio
3.00x
2.50x
2.00x
1.50x
1.00x
0.50x
0.00x
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Debt to Bank EBITDA
7
Strong value creation since IPO
ICF has delivered above average total shareholder return compared with major indices
as of Nov. 20, 2019
2006 - 2019 | ||||
800 | CAGR | |||
700 | ||||
ICFI | ||||
600 | 15.8% | |||
500 | ||||
400 | ||||
v | NASDAQ | |||
300 | 10.7% | |||
200 | ||||
S&P 500 | ||||
100 | 6.7% | |||
-
-06 | -07 | -08 | -09 | -10 | -11 | -12 | -13 | -14 | -15 | -16 | -17 | -18 | -19 |
Sep | Sep | Sep | Sep | Sep | Sep | Sep | Sep | Sep | Sep | Sep | Sep | Sep | Sep |
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ICF: a proven player with significant growth upside
Opportunity to | Unique portfolio | Demonstrated |
grow | combining deep | agility |
domain expertise | ||
with IT + | ||
engagement | ||
capabilities |
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Business
Overview
Presented by:
John Wasson, President and Chief Executive Officer
Investor Day 2019
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ICF's growth strategy
Sustaining and | Increasing scale | Building out service |
growing expertise | in implementation | offerings at the |
in core vertical | to win larger | intersections of |
markets | contracts | markets and |
functional expertise |
Increased emphasis on innovation and expanding strategic client relationships
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Synergy in markets and capabilities
Advisory + Strategy
Program Management
Technology,
Analytics +
Engagement
Energy, Environment + Infrastructure 44%
Consumer + Financial
10%
Health + Social Programs 38%
Safety + Security 8%
- Proprietary IP/ loyalty programs
- Workforce of long-time industry experts
- Longstanding client relationships
- Long-termcontract vehicles
Revenue percentages are based on Q3 2019 TTM financial performance released on November 6, 2019
12
ICF culture: a source of competitive advantage
Purpose
To build a more prosperous and resilient world for all.
Values
Interact with Integrity Bring Your Passion Embrace Differences Challenge Assumptions Work Together
Be Greater Than
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Performance since Investor Day 2016
Revenue: GAAP EPS:
2016-2019*2016-2019*
CAGR CAGR
7.9% 16.0%
*Midpoint of 2019 guidance affirmed on November 6, 2019
Employees:
Number of full- and part-time employees
13.6%
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Opportunity overview
Large, growing markets | Attractive margins | |||||||||
Federal services | Federal services | Government | Commercial specialty | |||||||
(non-DoD) | (DoD) $90 - 100B | margins typically | consulting margins | |||||||
$70 - 80B | per year* | range 7 - 11% | (i.e., energy) typically | |||||||
per year* | low teens | |||||||||
Commercial | Commercial | Commercial | ||||||||
energy/ | marketing services | marketing services | ||||||||
environmental | and | margins | ||||||||
services | technology $50B | typically mid- to | ||||||||
$7 - 10B per | per year** | high teens |
year**
*ICF estimates based on analysis of non-set-aside contract actions from 2018 Federal Procurement Data Systems ** ICF estimates based on third-party analyst reports
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Keys to sustained growth
Demonstrated | Roughly 50-50 split | Similar split expected |
performance in 13 | between organic and | to continue |
years since IPO | M&A growth |
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Catalysts for continued organic growth
Federal
- Civilian agency spending
- Public health
- Next gen IT
- Citizen engagement
Marketing Services
- Personalization/loyalty
- Digital transformation
- Data convergence
State + Local
- Disaster management: recovery and mitigation
- Infrastructure spending
Commercial Energy
-
Energy efficiency outsourcing
in California - Distributed energy resources
- Resilience planning
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M&A focus areas
Government
Next gen IT / digital transformation
Health & Human
Services (HHS)
Citizen engagement
Commercial
Energy
Advisory services
Grid, asset + customer analytics
Distributed energy resource management
Digital transformation
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Investor Day 2019
Take a deeper | Gain greater | Meet a broader |
dive into | understanding | cross-section of |
growth | of ICF's unique | ICF leaders |
catalysts | positioning | |
in key markets |
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Agenda
- Federal Market
- Disaster Management
- ICF Next
- Commercial Energy
- Financials
- Wrap-up
- Q&A
- Breakout Sessions
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The Federal Market
Presented by:
Mark Lee, Senior Vice President, Public Sector
Jen Welham, Senior Vice President, Health and Human Services
Investor Day 2019
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Market opportunity
Strong partnerships with nearly every federal agency
% of ICF revenues by agency*
$632B
2019 federal civilian budget
$77B+
Addressable federal civilian market
Mid-single digits
Percentage of growth in 2019 budgets
+4%
2020 federal civilian topline spending agreement
HHS 16%
DOD 6%
DOS 4%
EPA 2%
HUD 1%
DOT 1%
DOJ 1%
Other Federal 7%
Other Non-federal 62%
*ICF estimates based on analysis of non-set-aside contract actions from 2018 Federal Procurement Data Systems | *Based on Q3 2019 TTM financial performance released on November 6, 2019 | 22 |
Growth drivers
IncreasedAging
budgetsworkforce
Need for IT | Rising public |
modernization | health |
and enhanced | challenges |
cyber protection |
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•
Differentiators
Deep subject- | Full-suite of | Diverse agency |
matter | capabilities | clients |
expertise |
Health, energy, | IT, cybersecurity, | Work with |
environment, | analytics, | numerous agencies |
education, social | communications, | corresponding to |
programs, | engagement, workforce | different parts of |
international | development, program | Federal mission |
development, | implementation, | |
transportation | training |
Innovative approach
Named an "Industry Innovator"
Received highest scores in innovation in government brand survey
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Record business development pipeline
$B
3.8
3.6
3.4
3.2
3
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.2
2
Up ~50% over the last three years
ICF federal pipeline, 2016 - YTD 2019*
2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 |
*Annual average over four quarters; average over 3 quarters for 2019 | 25 |
Technology capabilities
Data | IT | Cybersecurity | Engagement | Workforce |
analytics | modernization | operations, | + design | development |
R&D |
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Health capabilities
Deep subject matter expertise
Substance abuse (vaping, opioids) Infectious disease (HIV, malaria) Chronic disease (cancer, diabetes) Mental health (suicide prevention)
Full suite of services Disease surveillance
Research + evaluation
Survey design + data collection Training + technical assistance Translation + dissemination
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OIG
Health and Human Services Office of Inspector
General
Predictive Analytics to Fight Fraud,
Waste and Abuse
$60 - $90B
Potential prevented/recovered fraudulent Medicare funds
Leveraging | Building tools | Incorporating |
advanced | that enable | user experience |
data analytics | self-serve data | design elements |
queries |
CASE STUDY | 28 |
BioSense
A platform for actionable public health insights
4,000
hospitals and outpatient centers reporting
2-4M
messages processed daily
60%
of emergency dept visits reported daily
CASE STUDY | 29 |
Disaster Management
Presented by:
Andrew LaVanway, Senior Vice President, Division Lead
Brandy Bones, Senior Director, Recovery Program Expert
Investor Day 2019
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Market opportunity
HUD CDBG-DR market
FEMA market
Fed-funded mitigation market
Total Funding
(1992 - 2019)
Active Funding
(Addressable
now)
Active
Grants
Active
Grantees
$89.7 billion*
$38.7 billion
137
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Numbers in $Millions
20000
10000
0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Annual | Supplemental | |
$2.4B
FEMA
HMGP
$3B
FEMA BRIC
$15.9B
CDBG-MIT
3%-10% of funding is addressable market
*Total funding for the Road Home was $9.022 billion | Source: Congressional Research Service | FEMA mitigation estimates are for next 6 years and | |
Source: HUD OCPD - HUDExchange.info | depend on disaster costs | 32 |
Key trends creating a more favorable market
Unprecedented need
Lower peaks + fewer valleys
Fragmented competition
Limited talent
Extreme weather events will continue
Consistent FEMA funding (>$7 billion/year)
More emphasis on whole community recovery
Ability to find and/or build talent is critical to success
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Building on Past Success | 2019 | 2020 | ||||||
2013 | 2018 | 2019 | ||||||
2018 | FEMA Public | FEMA Building | ||||||
2006 | Manages billion-dollar | Awarded | Assistance | FEMA 406 | Resilient | |||
recoveries for N.Y., | 2 FEMA | Acquire DMS | work expanded | Mitigation | Infrastructure | |||
Manages $9.022 | N.J., and Conn. | Public | with a sizable | work | & | |||
billion La. Road | following Superstorm | Assistance | portfolio of | New FEMA | begins in | Communities | ||
Home Program | Sandy | contracts in | FEMA work + | wins in N.C., | P.R. | Launches | ||
P.R. | personnel | La., N.Y . | ||||||
Yesterday | Today | Tomorrow | ||||||
2007-2011 | 2017-2019 |
Works with HUD | Delivers HUD |
to "write the | CDBG-DR |
book on CDBG & | Problem |
CDBG-DR" | Solving Clinic |
for grantees |
key FEMA CDBG-DR Mitigation
Owning a strong position in HUD
CDBG-DR disaster recovery
2018 | 2018 | 2019 |
Lead TA | Selected for 3 | Awarded |
provider to | CDBG-DR | housing |
U.S.V.I. | projects in | recovery |
Tex. | program in | |
P.R. |
Expanding CDBG, building a strong position in FEMA disaster response and recovery
2019 2019-2020Implementing HUD N.C.'s Buyout announces
Program | rules for CDBG- |
MIT funding | |
ICF Awarded | |
Mo. MIT | |
Planning |
Using recovery as opportunity to mitigate and build resiliency
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Supporting communities across the full disaster lifecycle and all funding sources
Mitigation Preparedness
Recovery Response
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Putting mitigation into practice
Supporting Columbia, | Improving stormwater | Building a |
South Carolina after | resilience in the | climate-ready |
historic flooding | City of Miami Beach | Philadelphia |
Photo credit: Cassie Bhat
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The ICF advantage
ICF has won nearly a half-billion
dollars in contract awards across the disaster lifecycle since 2018
Our people
Working 3 of the largest disaster recovery programs in U.S. history
20+ year Federal, state and local partnerships
Training to build internal talent and capacity
Work with unwavering passion and integrity
Our approach
Operations span multiple ICF divisions
Offer capabilities across communications, energy, security, workforce development, economic analysis, data modeling and more
Breaking down barriers between recovery and resilience disciplines
Our delivery
+14,000 FEMA PA projects formulated and in progress
~$15 billion CDBG-DR funds managed and delivered to communities
Obligated $1.9B in FEMA funding in the first year, more than any other disaster in U.S. history
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Presented by:
John Armstrong, President, ICF Next
Kris Tremaine, Managing Partner, ICF Next
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ICF's go-to-market brand for integrated digital + engagement services
$350M+ | |
40% | Annual revenue across a |
balanced portfolio | |
Government | Opportunity |
60% | |
pipeline is +3X | |
Commercial | |
revenue |
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Capabilities and differentiators
Loyalty | Technology | Analytics | Engagement | Strategy |
Combines creativity of | Designs solutions | Built specifically to |
an agency with deep | that drive real | realize the benefits |
domain expertise of | participation with | of an integrated |
a consultancy | customers, citizens, | model |
colleagues |
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Consumer
-
Financial
-
Government
-
Health
-
Travel
-
Hospitality
-
Energy
__
Transportation
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10x Gold and | 6x PR Agency of |
Silver Lions | the Year |
- | - |
2018 Cannes | PR Week and The |
Lions Festival of | Sabre Awards |
Creativity (in one | (since 2014) |
year) |
Multi-time | Marketing | Federal |
"Leader" in | Cloud | Experience |
customer loyalty | Partner of | Award |
solutions and in | the Year | - |
digital experience | - | The Center for |
- | Adobe | Digital |
The Forrester WaveTM | Government |
"ICF Next is probably the most prolific producer of breakthrough creative work in the industry … and it's become clear that, in most cases, the creativity drives compelling business performance for its clients."
- The Holmes Report, naming ICF Next its 2018 Specialist Agency of the Year
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Growth drivers
Marketing technology | Customer loyalty |
• Market $50B+ | • Market $3.5B |
• Personalization at scale | • Data convergence |
Healthcare | Large federal campaigns |
• Market $10B+ | • Market $1.9B |
• Disruption & transformation | • Citizen engagement |
Sources:
1. Published NAICS codes; 2. WARC: 2019 and Beyond (US and UK MarTech Spend); 3. Maximize Market Research: 2019; 4. Private consulting report
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Centers for Disease
Control and Prevention
Real stories of the opioid epidemic
Supporting CDC in the fight against prescription drug overdose
80% | 27% |
of intended | Intend to avoid using |
audience | prescription opioids |
saw a campaign | because of exposure to |
video | the campaign |
CASE STUDY | 46 |
Fortune 100 Healthcare Client
Transforming the health of the community, one person at a time
Delivering strategy, transformation, experience, marketing and engagement initiatives
2M | 2X | 10/10 |
Enrollees from | Increase in | Continuous client |
product launch | leads from paid | satisfaction rating |
to becoming a | marketing | from over 150 |
category leader | campaign for | projects and |
open | campaigns across | |
enrollment | client's business |
CASE STUDY | 47 |
Hilton Honors
"…to be the most customer centric loyalty program."
- Mark Weinstein SVP & Global Head of Customer Engagement, Loyalty and Partnerships
Hilton Honors continuous evolution, ensures the best member experience possible
100% | 75% | 30% |
Improvement on | Faster checkout | Increase in |
annual member tier | process. Members | membership |
requalification | see account activity | growth |
within hours |
CASE STUDY | 48 |
Commercial Energy
Presented by:
Sergio Ostria, Executive Vice President, Energy and Infrastructure Phil Mihlmester, Executive Vice President, Energy Division Lead Shanthi Muthiah, Senior Vice President, Power Markets Expert Anne Choate, Senior Vice President, Climate and Resiliency
Investor Day 2019
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Market transformation drives market opportunity
From central station power | To distributed power, 2-way grid | |||||
generation | ||||||
51
Capabilities and differentiators
Award-winning customer engagement
Leading edge proprietary technology & analytics
Power + fuel markets
Energy efficiency implementation
Climate
changeTraining +
resiliencedevelopment
Analytics
Distributed energy resources
Customer | |
engagement | Delivery of over |
160 energy | |
efficiency | |
programs |
Deep subject matter expertise
Grid modernization
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Growth drivers
Energy | Distributed | Utility |
efficiency | energy | resilience |
resources (DER) |
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Energy efficiency
Market expected to grow from $2B to $3.3B by 2030
Numerous states | EE increasingly | EE program | California |
have increased | viewed as a | updates fueled | has tripled its |
EE spending | grid resource | by changes | EE outsourcing |
in climate | requirement |
Sources: ACEEE, LBNL, ICF analysis
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Spotlight on California
IOUs are required to outsource 60% of EE programs by 2022 (20% today)
12 RFAs were issued in 2019 and 18 are expected in 2020
The RFP stage expected to continue into 2020
ICF's estimated addressable market: $250M+/year
ICF has responded to most RFAs with excellent success on down-selection to RFP stage
ICF is awaiting selection decisions on numerous proposals
Procurement schedules indicate contract negotiations with winning bidders in 2020
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Distributed Energy Resources
Estimated addressable market sizes
$1-2B | ||||
Utilities challenged to | Initial utility pilot | |||
EV market by 2030* | manage growth of | programs | ||
$6-8B | DERs including solar, | focusing on | ||
storage, and electric | battery storage | |||
vehicles (EVs) | and EVs | |||
NWA market over 10 | ||||
years for load constrained substations** | ||||
$6-12B
Storage market over 20 years***
*EEI, ICF analysis
**EIA, NAS, NYPSC, ICF analysis
***EDF, ICF analysis
Total DER market could be as large as current energy efficiency market in the next 5-10 years
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DER technology-based pilots
Planning Roadmaps Advise/Plan
Develop roadmap, sequence, priority of future initiatives
0-4 mos.
Design
Plan execution of roadmap elements, develop business case, design pilot
4-18 mos.
Implement Pilots |
Develop vendor |
selection, |
customer |
outreach |
18-36 mos. |
Scale and Implement Programs
Develop and implement utility programs based on pilots including programs, procurements and pricing mechanisms
18-48 mos.
Current ICF contracts
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Helping customers control energy usage through innovative technologies
Testing smart thermostats, residential solar, battery storage and dynamic rates
Evaluating how adoption and use of these technologies impacts the grid
Global energy storage market | |
expected to grow to $620B by | |
* | |
2040 | |
*Source: EDF | • 58 |
BGE and PHI
Incentivizing the EV market
BGE and PHI's EVsmart Pilots
- Residential EV charger rebates
- Multifamily EV charger rebates
- Public charging stations network
ICF support includes:
- Program implementation
- Marketing and advertising
- Web and IT solutions
- Events and dealership outreach
- Customer care and rebate processing
- EV subject matter expert consultation
"EEI's member companies have invested over $1 billion on customer programs and projects to deploy charging infrastructure and to accelerate electric transportation, and we fully expect that number to rise."
CASE STUDY | 59 |
Resilience to Climate/Weather Risks
More extreme | Since 2003, the |
weather events in last | average annual # of |
decade than prior 2 | weather-related power |
decades combined | outages has doubled |
$21B
Resilience spending by electric and gas utilities in 2030*
80 cities have | Regulatory activity is |
named Chief | driving spending |
Resilience Officers | (e.g., CA, NY) |
$100M
Addressable market for ICF advisory + implementation resilience services* to energy asset owners in 2030
*Source: EIA, EEI, Brattle, ICF analysis
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ICF-led landmark
climate vulnerability study
Regulator-driven study provides risk analysis & recommendations for assets and operations
Regulators requiring implementation
- $5.6B (~$90M/yr) required to address rising temperatures alone
CASE STUDY | 61 |
Financial Strength
Presented by:
James Morgan, Chief Financial Officer
Investor Day 2019
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Revenue and profit growth
Revenue ($ Millions) | Non-GAAP EPS |
$1,475B - $1.500B | $5.00 | ||||||||||||||
$1,600 | $4.50 | $4.10 - $4.25 | |||||||||||||
$4.00 | $3.73 | ||||||||||||||
$1,400 | $1,338 | ||||||||||||||
$1,185 | $1,229 | $3.50 | $3.02 | ||||||||||||
$1,200 | $1,132 | $2.87 | |||||||||||||
$3.00 | $2.64 | ||||||||||||||
$1,000 | |||||||||||||||
$2.50 | |||||||||||||||
$800 | |||||||||||||||
CAGR | $2.00 | -GAAP | |||||||||||||
Non | |||||||||||||||
. | - | ||||||||||||||
yr | |||||||||||||||
$600 | 5 | ||||||||||||||
.2% | $2.50 | yr.CAGR | |||||||||||||
6 | |||||||||||||||
5 | |||||||||||||||
.4% | |||||||||||||||
$400 | $1.00 | 10 | |||||||||||||
$200 | $0.50 | ||||||||||||||
$0 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | $0.00 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017** | 2018 | 2019 | ||||
Guidance* | Guidance* |
*Based on 2019 management guidance as of November 6, 2019
**2017 Non-GAAP EPS excludes the one-time benefit of a Deferred Tax Liability (DTL) revaluation for 2017, as a result of the 2017 Tax Reform Act
64
Solid margin expansion
Adjusted EBITDA to Service Revenue (SR)
14.00%
13.50%
13.00%
12.50%
12.00%
13.0%
12.7%
13.2%
13.6%
13.3% 13.4%
201420152016
- Growth over last 5 years largely organic
- Catalysts in our markets will drive continued growth
201720182019*
*Mid-point of Q319 Guidance with estimate of SR
Catalysts for continued profitability improvement
- Improved revenue mix (more higher margin work)
- Real estate / facilities consolidation
- Process improvement
• | Larger contracts; driving efficiencies | 65 |
• | Economies of scale lowers ratio of overhead costs |
Balance sheet / cash flow metrics
- Strong balance sheet
- History of strong cash flow
Balance sheet ratios (as of 9/30/19)
Current ratio | 1.51x |
Debt to total capital | 0.26x |
Leverage ratio (Debt to EBITDA) | 1.86x |
Bank leverage ratio* (Debt to Bank EBITDA) | 1.72x |
- Bank EBITDA: EBITDA plus non-cash compensation
Cash flow metrics
FCF as % of net income (1/1/15 - 9/30/19) | 98% |
DSO (9/30/19) | 93.9 |
DSO excl. Puerto Rico (9/30/19) | 76.0 |
2019 operating cash flow guidance | $80M 66 |
Capital allocation priorities (2019)*
Forecasted 2019 Capital Allocation of Expected Op Cash Flow (estimate as of 9/30/19)
Cash use priorities
CAPEX $27.4M
Dividends $10.5M
Support continued growth of ICF's business through M&A and capital
1 | expenditures |
2 | Rebuild firepower (debt paydown) |
Debt | |
Share | repayment |
repurchase | $18.7M |
$23.4M |
3 | Maintain dividend |
4 | Maintain stable share count |
*Expected allocation for 2019 based on achieving operating cash flow guidance
67
M&A focus areas
Government
Next gen IT / digital transformation
Health & Human
Services (HHS)
Citizen engagement
Commercial
Energy
Advisory services
Grid, asset + customer analytics
Distributed energy resource management
Digital transformation
68
Demonstrated track record
Bank Leverage Ratio
3.00x
2.50x
2.00x
1.50x
1.00x
0.50x
0.00x
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Debt to Bank EBITDA
Total Shareholder Return - TSR
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
-
ICF I | S&P 500 | NASDAQ |
2006-2019
CAGR
ICFI 15.8%
NASDAQ 10.7%
S&P 500 6.7%
69
Summary
ICF has a history | Our investor-friendly |
of solid financial | financial policy supports |
performance | ongoing value creation |
Strong balance | Significant attention on |
sheet, reliable cash | identifying appropriate |
flow, and attractive | acquisition targets to |
financing enables | support our focus areas |
future growth | of growth |
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Investor Day 2019
71
Key takeaways
Significant runway for organic growth across client set
Financial resources to support organic and acquisitive growth
Continue complementary and accretive acquisitions
Unique culture that drives excellent innovation, execution and collaboration
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Disclaimer
ICF International Inc. published this content on 03 December 2019 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 03 December 2019 19:47:06 UTC