Implats - UBS investor call
December 2019
Forward-looking and cautionary statement
Certain statements contained in this presentation, other than the statements of historical fact, contain forward-looking statements regarding Implats' operations, economic performance or financial condition, including, without limitation, those concerning the economic outlook for the platinum industry, expectations regarding metal prices, production, cash costs and other operating results, growth prospects and the outlook of Implats' operations, including the completion and commencement of commercial operations of certain of Implats' exploration and production projects, its liquidity and capital resources and expenditure and the outcome and consequences of any pending litigation, regulatory approvals and/or legislative frameworks currently in the process of amendment, or any enforcement proceedings. Although Implats believes that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are reasonable, no assurance can be given that such expectations will prove to be correct. Accordingly, results may differ materially from those set out in the forward-looking statements as a result of, among other factors, changes in economic and market conditions, success of business and operating initiatives, changes in the regulatory environment and other government actions, fluctuations in metal prices, levels of global demand and exchange rates and business and operational risk management. For a discussion on such factors, refer to the risk management section of the company's Integrated Annual Report. Implats is not obliged to update publicly or release any revisions to these forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances after the dates of the Annual Report or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events.
Disclaimer: This entire presentation and all subsequent written or oral forward-looking statements attributable to Implats or any person acting on its behalf are qualified by caution. Recipients hereof are advised the presentation is prepared for general information purposes and not intended to constitute a recommendation to buy- or offer to sell shares or securities in Implats or any other entity. Sections of this presentation are not defined and assured under IFRS, but included to assist in demonstrating Implats' underlying financial performance. Implats recommend you address any doubts in this regard with an authorised independent financial advisor, stockbroker, tax advisor, accountant or suitably qualified professional.
Implats - UBS investor call | 2 |
Who we are
Our strategy
Implats strategy prioritises value over volume in a zero harm environment with a specific focus on positioning the Group to be sustainably profitable through the cycle
Our vision
To be the worlds' best PGM producer,
sustainably delivering superior value to all our stakeholders
Implats - UBS investor call
Our values
We respect, care and deliver
Our mission
To mine, process, refine and market high-quality PGM products, safely, efficiently and at the best possible cost from a competitive asset portfolio through team work and innovation
3
Our value-focused strategy
The Group's value-focused strategy aims to reduce exposure to high-cost,deep-level conventional mining over time,
repositioning the business as a high-value, sustainable, profitable and competitive PGM producer
Strategic objectives
Reposition Impala to | Enhance the | Optimise balance | Protect and |
the lower half of the | competiveness | sheet and capital | strengthen our |
cost curve | of our portfolio | allocation | licence to operate |
Implats - UBS investor call | 4 |
A globally competitive portfolio
Canada | ||
Production | Koz 6E | 261.9 |
Cash costs | ZAR/oz 6E | 8 550 |
Total Cost | ZARoz 6E | 11 316 |
EBITDA | Rm | 2 361 |
Reserves | Moz 6E PGM | 4 |
Sep-19 Basket price received | ZAR/oz 6E | 21 667 |
Mechanised PGM production | Attributable production | ||||
60% | 2 500 | ||||
50% | 2 000 | ||||
40% | (koz) | 1 500 | |||
30% | 1 000 | ||||
57% | |||||
51% | |||||
20% | 500 | ||||
10% | 0 | ||||
Implats | Implats & NAP | ||||
0% | Platinum | Palladium | Rhodium | ||
Implats | Implats & NAP | ||||
Implats - UBS investor call
Zimbabwe | ||
Production | Koz 6E | 634 |
Cash costs | ZAR/oz 6E | 9 009 |
Total Cost | ZARoz 6E | 11 687 |
EBITDA | Rm | 4 012 |
Reserves | Moz 6E PGM | 26 |
Sep-19 Basket price received | ZAR/oz 6E | 19 229 |
SA | IRS refined | ||
Production | Koz 6E | 1 607 | 1 683 |
Cash costs | ZAR/oz 6E | 12 419 | |
Total Cost | ZARoz 6E | 13 902 | |
EBITDA | Rm | 5 443 | 3249 |
Reserves | Moz 6E PGM | 18.5 | |
Sep-19 Basket price received | ZAR/oz 6E | 18 595 | |
5 |
PGM pricing has underpinned a financial turnaround
Impala Rustenburg: Basket price per platinum ounce | FY2019 cost of production and achieved revenue (R/oz 6E) | ||||||||||||||||
43 000 | 3 100 | (R/oz 6E PGM ) | |||||||||||||||
20 000 | |||||||||||||||||
R19 844 | |||||||||||||||||
38 000 | |||||||||||||||||
2 600 | R16 184 | ||||||||||||||||
16 000 | R14 881 | R15 221 | R14 872 | R15 254 | |||||||||||||
33 000 | |||||||||||||||||
R12 607 | R13 032 | ||||||||||||||||
28 000 | 2 100 | 12 000 | |||||||||||||||
23 000 | 1 600 | 8 000 | |||||||||||||||
18 000 | |||||||||||||||||
1 100 | 4 000 | ||||||||||||||||
13 000 | |||||||||||||||||
- | |||||||||||||||||
8 000 | 600 | Two Rivers | Zimplats | Marula | Mimosa | Impala | Implats | NAP | Implats + | ||||||||
NAP | |||||||||||||||||
Jan/10 | Jan/11 | Jan/12 | Jan/13 | Jan/14 Jan/15 | Jan/16 Jan/17 | Jan/18 Jan/19 | |||||||||||
R/oz Pt | $/oz Pt | Cash cost | Stay-in-business capital | Replacement capital | Expansion capital | Revenue | |||||||||||
Implats - UBS investor call | 6 |
PGM markets - a snapshot
Falling diesel market share | Auto growth off thrifted base | ||||||
Material revisions in loading | |||||||
Two Phases of HD legislation in China | |||||||
expectations for NOx abatement - | |||||||
and India in medium-term | PGM markets | ||||||
| Value in use vs palladium expectations | ||||||
Industrial underpinned by 'Developing' | |||||||
range from between 3:1 to as high as | |||||||
growth and nascent fuel cell demand | 8:1 | ||||||
| Jewellery market uncertainty | Industrial demand linked to fabrication | |||||
In need of a demand pull | Demand revisions underpin a material | ||||||
change in UG2 pricing outlook | |||||||
On 'auto pilot' due to loadings change in developing | Processing and funding impediments to Northern Limb | ||||||
markets and gasoline market share | expansion | ||||||
Deficits increase with China 6 legislation implementation | We expect price-inducedlife extension of UG2 supply | ||||||
Industrial demand is primarily linked to consumer goods = | Funded growth from Russia delivers medium-term | ||||||
price elastic | growth | ||||||
Long-term auto growth will be balanced by expected | Market uncertainty and SA investment climate | ||||||
recycling growth and ultimately BEV penetration | Secondary supply is heavily 2025-2030 weighted | ||||||
Platinum | Palladium | Rhodium | |||||||
1 000 | - | 40 | |||||||
800 | |||||||||
600 | -500 | 20 | |||||||
400 | - | ||||||||
200 | -1 000 | ||||||||
- | -1 500 | -20 | |||||||
-200 | -40 | ||||||||
-400 | -2 000 | -60 | |||||||
2018 | 2019F | 2020F | |||||||
2018 | 2019F | 2020F | |||||||
2018 | 2019F | 2020F | |||||||
Implats - UBS investor call | 7 | ||||||||
PGM Demand
- Automotive markets
- 2019: Weak YtD October performance -5.3%o Contraction driven by:
- -9.5%YtD decline in China, weak GDP growth and trade uncertainty exacerbated by inventory management ahead of China 6
- Slowing US growth after strong recovery post GFC
- Decline in Western Europe on trade and Brexit woes
- Japan eking out growth ahead of October tax
- Pace of decline in diesel share beginning to moderate; but structurally has spurred better-than-expected gasoline volumes
- 2020 expected to show modest recovery, but at risk from global slow- down and trade tensions
- Platinum jewellery markets
- Pleasing growth in India and the US together with a stable outlook for Japan
- A sobering outlook for the Chinese market which faces increasingly nuanced consumer market and a declining promotional wallet
- Investment
- 1Q19 Platinum ETF flurry moderated in 2Q19 and 3Q19, while paper positioning has been bolstered by gold
- Bar and coin likely to be small positive driver in 2019
- Palladium disinvestment from ETFs continues, while paper positioning remains modest
WORLD LIGHT-DUTY VEHICLE SALES BY REGION - 2019 YTD
2018 | 2019 | 2018 | |
growth | |||
(millions) | (millions) | ||
(%) | |||
USA | 14.2 | 14.0 | -1.2 |
Western Europe | 13.8 | 13.7 | -0.7 |
China | 22.6 | 20.4 | -9.5 |
Japan | 4.4 | 4.4 | 0.5 |
Rest of the World | 23.5 | 21.9 | -6.8 |
Total | 78.5 | 74.4 | -5.3 |
Source: LMC Automotive November 2019
Implats - UBS investor call | 8 |
Investor positioning - Paper & ETFs
COMEX Palladium | |||||||
4 | |||||||
3 | 2 000 | ||||||
2 | |||||||
1 | 1 500 | ||||||
0 | 1 000 | ||||||
-1 | 500 | ||||||
-2 | |||||||
-3 | 0 | ||||||
Jan-96 | Jan-99 | Jan-02 | Jan-05 | Jan-08 | Jan-11 | Jan-14 | Jan-17 |
Long, koz (LHS) | Short, koz (Inverse) (LHS) | ||||||
Net Position, koz (LHS) | Palladium price (USD/oz) (RHS) | ||||||
5 | COMEX Platinum | ||||||
4 | 2 000 | ||||||
3 | |||||||
2 | 1 500 | ||||||
1 | |||||||
0 | 1 000 | ||||||
-1 | 500 | ||||||
-2 | |||||||
-3 | 0 | ||||||
Jan-96 | Jan-99 | Jan-02 | Jan-05 | Jan-08 | Jan-11 | Jan-14 | Jan-17 |
Long, koz (LHS) | Short, koz (Inverse) (LHS) | |
Net Position, koz (LHS) | Platinum price (USD/oz) (RHS) | |
Implats - UBS investor call
Palladium ETF Holdings
3.5 | 2 000 | |||||
3.0 | ||||||
2.5 | 1 500 | |||||
2.0 | 1 000 | |||||
1.5 | ||||||
1.0 | 500 | |||||
0.5 | ||||||
0.0 | 0 | |||||
Apr/07 | Apr/09 | Apr/11 | Apr/13 | Apr/15 | Apr/17 | Apr/19 |
ETC | US ETC | ZKB | ||||
JB | NGPLD | ETFPLD | ||||
Platinum ETF Holdings | ||||||
4.0 | 2 350 | |||||
3.5 | 2 150 | |||||
3.0 | 1 950 | |||||
2.5 | 1 750 | |||||
2.0 | 1 550 | |||||
1.5 | 1 350 | |||||
1.0 | 1 150 | |||||
0.5 | 950 | |||||
0.0 | 750 | |||||
Apr/07 | Apr/09 | Apr/11 | Apr/13 | Apr/15 | Apr/17 | Apr/19 |
ETC | US ETC | ZKB | ||||
JB | NGPLT | ETFPLT | ||||
Others | Price, USD/oz (RHS) | |||||
9 |
PGM market outlook
- The outlook for global growth remains murky with no short-term resolution to uncertainties caused by trade-wars, Brexit and rising geo- political tensions.
- The structural underpin from technological developments and evolution, together with tightening legislation is vital to maintain the trend of tightening demand and supply in the medium-term:
- Market development activity has seen discussion on platinum for palladium substitution move from meeting rooms to the R&D labs of major fabricators with indicative volumes and timing now visible in the medium-term outlook
- Together with HDD, this has the potential to drive fundamental demand growth/pull
- Rest of the metals all enjoying strong supply/demand fundamentals, driven by:
- Palladium: Automotive
- Rhodium: Automotive and Industrial
- Limited potential near-term supply response
Implats - UBS investor call | 10 |
Our performance against strategic KPI's in FY2019
Reposition Implats to the lower
half of the cost curve
SAFETY PERFORMANCE
Fatalities reduced from 7 to 5
LTIFR reduced by 12%
OPERATIONAL PERFORMANCE
Sustained mine-to-market production
Increased refined production
PGM +5%
Platinum +4%
Palladium +7%
COST PERFORMANCE
Group stock adjusted unit cost ↑4% Group unit cost per refined ounce ↓8%
IMPALA returned to profitability
MARULA turnaround sustained
Generating cash for the Group
Implats - UBS investor call
Enhance the competitiveness
of the portfolio
Completed IMPALA phase 1 restructuring
without disruptions
Industry leading cost performance from
IMPALA with stock adjusted unit cost growing
by only 4% per annum from 2016
Industry leading processing facilities
IRS cash cost R850/PGM ounce
Announced NAP TRANSACTION and
completed WATERBERG DFS
Sustained MARKET DEVELOPMENT and supported targeted industry initiatives to grow PGM demand
R1.5bn invested over 5 years
Optimise balance sheet and
capital allocation
Improved balance sheet LIQUIDITY and
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
R6.8bn gross profit
R7.7bn free cash flow
R8.2bn gross cash
R12.2bn liquidity
R1.1bn net cash
Optimised CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Invested R3.8bn in Capex
Repaid debt of R2.2bn
Converted US$ bonds
Reduced excess processing INVENTORY
57koz Pt drawdown
Sustained DIVIDEND PAYMENTS from Zimplats, Mimosa and Two Rivers
Protect and strengthen license
to operate
Improved SAFETY performance despite poor
fourth quarter
No level 4/5 ENVIRONMENTAL incidents
reported during the year
Reviewed all TAILING STORAGE FACILITIES
design and operational management Published information
Sustained OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH
surveillance and wellness programmes
TB well below national average
Sustained good relations with all key STAKEHOLDERS in RSA and Zimbabwe 7 day disruption at Marula
11
Delivering a profitable Impala Rustenburg
Status
FY2017
Unprofitable
operation
12
operational
shafts
ramping up to
750koz Pt
Opex + capex*
R29 006/oz
Capital
R2 472m
(nominal)
Labour
42 253
Implats - UBS investor call
Status
FY2019
Free cash flow
generative
10
operational
shafts,
producing
683koz Pt
Opex + capex*
R26 179/oz
Capital
R2 006m
(nominal)
Labour
39 523
OPERATIONAL
Description | FY2019 | FY2018 | % change | |
LTIFR | pmmhw | 5.42 | 6.54 | 17 |
Pt Production | koz in conc | 688 | 669 | 3 |
Unit cost | R/Pt oz | 24 945 | 24 005 | (4) |
Face length | km | 21.0 | 20.2 | 4 |
Efficiency | t/man/a | 289 | 269 | 7 |
Recoveries | % | 89.15 | 87.84 | 1 |
*in FY2018 terms
Future status
FY2022
Free cash flow
generative
6
operational
shafts
producing
~520koz Pt
Opex + capex*
<R24 500
Capital
R1 400m
(real FY2018)
Labour
~27 000
12
Strengthening the balance sheet
- Cash net of debt of R1.1 billion at 30 June 2019 (excluding finance leases) - a notable improvement on closing net debt position in prior year of R5.3 billion
- RCF fully repaid during first half of the year. First tranche of Zimplats facility repaid and remainder due Dec 2019
- Group headroom available of R12.2 billion comprising:
- R8.24 billion cash, including Zimplats (R945 million only R4 million of this in local currency)
- Committed RCF of R4 billion in place until June 2021, undrawn at year end
- R2 billion available on metal prepayment facility
R million | June 2019 | June 2018 | Variance (%) |
Gross cash | 8 242 | 3 705 | 122 |
Convertible bonds | (5 831) | (5 489) | (6) |
Derivative financial instrument | 151 | 21 | |
Marula BEE debt | (888) | (887) | |
Zimplats debt | (599) | (1 167) | 49 |
Revolving credit facilities | - | (1 510) | |
Debt excluding leases | (7 167) | (9 032) | 21 |
Net cash/(debt) excluding leases | 1 075 | (5 327) | 120 |
Gearing ratio | n/a | 13.4% |
Implats - UBS investor call | 13 |
Conversion of US$ convertible bonds
CONVERTIBLE BONDS 2022
- Long dated debt
| Stock overhang | INCENTIVISED OFFER |
Early conversion of USD bonds
FINANCIAL IMPACTS
- No incentive for bondholders to convert (although in the money)
- Elected to convert US$ bonds only
- Higher relative cost given CCIRS i.e. 9.8% pa on R3.25 billion
- NPV of future coupon payments estimated at over R800 million
- Holders largely non-resident specialist bond funds with elevated short positions
- Incentivised Conversion offer launched on 17 July and closed on 22 July
- Final take-upof 99.9% - only one outstanding bond of US$200k
-
Total cash consideration of
US$37.6m (R524.3m), including accrued interest - CCIRS cancelled and R77 million proceeds received
- Remaining bondholder elected to convert and was settled in shares (no incentive premium payable)
- Incentive premium of R510 million expensed
- Earnings to improve
- Lower interest charges - R319 million pa
- No longer impacted by fair value movements on the CCIRS, the conversion option or the foreign exchange translation gains/losses on the bond
- Earnings per share impacted by issue of 64.3 million additional shares
- Net debt reduced by R3 billion
-
Fair value of USD conversion option liability of
R1.8 billion transferred to equity on the conversion date
Implats - UBS investor call
14
Acquisition of North American Palladium
Co-operative and positive relationship since 2017 centred on exploration joint venture on Sunday Lake Project
Withdrawal from sales process in 2018 to focus on the operational and financial challenges of implementing the Impala Rustenburg restructuring
Recent significant strengthening of balance sheet on the back of higher PGM pricing and good operational performance
Due diligence revisited in 2019 given the more
supportive environment for a transaction
An established PGM producer in an attractive
mining jurisdiction
NAP is listed on the TSX in Toronto
Strategy focuses on increasing underground
mined volumes and increasing mill throughput to
drive production gains
Reliable operational performance since 2017 resulting in increased total ore recovery and production rates, lowered operating costs, and improved geotechnical ground conditions
NAP is set to become one of Canada's largest and
lowest cost underground metal mines
Significant development and exploration upside
NAP Ore volumes (incl. surface stock) vs mined grade
2.5 | 3.5 | ||||||||||||
minedTonnes(Mt) | 2.0 | 3.0 | gradeMined(g/t Pd) | ||||||||||
2.5 | |||||||||||||
1.5 | 2.0 | ||||||||||||
1.0 | 1.5 | ||||||||||||
0.5 | 1.0 | ||||||||||||
0.5 | |||||||||||||
0.0 | - | ||||||||||||
Jun/16 Dec/16 | Jun/17 | Dec/17 Jun/18 | Dec/18 Jun/19 | ||||||||||
UG | OP | Surface | Mined Grade | ||||||||||
NAP Palladium production vs AISC and Revenue | |||||||||
productionPalladium(000 oz Pd) | 150 | 1 600 | |||||||
120 | Revenue&AISCperounce($/oz) | ||||||||
1 200 | |||||||||
90 | 800 | ||||||||
60 | |||||||||
30 | 400 | ||||||||
- | - | ||||||||
Jun/16 Dec/16 Jun/17 Dec/17 Jun/18 | Dec/18 Jun/19 | ||||||||
Palladium oz | Revenue | AISC | |||||||
2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2017 |
Study on Lac des Iles | Sunday Lake Project initiated | Test treatment of NAP | Option agreement between |
Implats and NAP on the | |||
concentrates by IRS | |||
Sunday Lake Project | |||
2018
Implats participates in NAP's sales process, but withdraws due to internal operational and financial challenges
2019
Confirmatory due
diligence and
transaction negotiations
Implats - UBS investor call | Source: NAP Limited Quarterly Reporting and MD&A | 15 |
Acquisition of NAP accelerates delivery of strategic objectives
Reposition Implats to the lower
half of the cost curve
SAFETY PERFORMANCE Operated for over 12 months with zero
lost-time injury
OPERATIONAL PERFORMANCE
700 employees
Mined volumes: 4mt
6E PGM: 262koz
Palladium: 232koz
COST PERFORMANCE
AISC per palladium ounce of US$781/oz
Cash cost of ZAR8,550/oz 6E
NET SALES REVENUE
Achieved revenue:
US$1,216/oz palladium
R18,272/oz 6E
Enhance the competitiveness
of the portfolio
Increases exposure to MECHANISED
ASSETS
PALLADIUM-RICH orebody improves
COMMODITY MIX to more closely match current and forecast 3E PGM demand
Increase exposure to the global
PALLADIUM SUPPLY AND PRICING
without supply expansion
Expand RESOURCE INVENTORY with potential to add to life-of-mineand improve grade
Potential for IRS to optimise capacity utilisation by treating NAP's high-grade PGM concentrates without limiting IRS optionality
Optimise balance sheet and
capital allocation
Detailed DUE DILIGENCE to confirm
management plans
FREE CASHFLOW AND NET ASSET VALUE
accretive
Low cost with ability to generate
free cash flow in excess of both capital
expenditure requirements and
debt servicing
Funded in prudent manner to enhance
SHAREHOLDER RETURNS
Protect and strengthen license
to operate
World class SAFETY
Geographic diversification and footprint for potential growth in North America
A stable and attractive mining
jurisdiction
Impeccable ENVIRONMENTAL track
record and reporting
Well established MANAGEMENT TEAM
Focus on relationships with
COMMUNITIES
Implats - UBS investor call
Source: NAP Limited Quarterly Reporting and MD&A; Financial data: 12m June 2019; R/C$ 10.76 | 16 |
Enhanced palladium exposure without increasing supply
Repositions attributable mined metal mix
- Increased palladium production to match both gross and auto demand
- Rhodium volumes remain in line with auto requirements
Diversifies geographic sources
- North American presence added to South Africa and Zimbabwe
Increases palladium exposure without adding to supply
- Attributable mined volumes for IMP & NAP:
- 18% of primary Platinum supply
- 13% of primary Palladium supply
- 19% of primary Rhodium supply
Processing optionality
- Nature of NAP concentrates allow for potential future inclusion in IRS processing streams
- Inclusion of NAP concentrates in IRS does not preclude ability to treat other 3rd party concentrates
3E PGM demand mix vs Group production
5% | 7% | 7% | 7% | |||||||||||
54% | 35% | 42% | ||||||||||||
69% | ||||||||||||||
57% | 51% | |||||||||||||
41% | ||||||||||||||
24% | ||||||||||||||
2018 Gross Demand | 2018 Auto Demand | IMP | IMP&NAP | |||||||||||
Platinum | Palladium | Rhodium | ||||||||||||
PGM peer group mined prill split | ||||||||||||||
2% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 9% | 6% | |||||||||
39% | 29% | 27% | ||||||||||||
42% | 40% | |||||||||||||
79% | ||||||||||||||
53% | 54% | 62% | 67% | |||||||||||
51% | ||||||||||||||
19% | ||||||||||||||
Peer 1 | IMP&NAP | Peer 2 | Peer 3 | Peer 4 | Peer 5 | |||||||||
Platinum | Palladium | Rhodium | ||||||||||||
Implats - UBS investor call | Source: Company Data 12m to June 2019, JM May 2019 PGM Review, Data is on attributable mined volumes | 17 |
Key focus areas for FY2020
Advance Impala | FOCUS |
Rustenburg restructuring | AREAS |
Entrench operational turnaround |
- Conclude 1 and 9 Shaft closure/outsourcing
- Extract value from 12 and 14 Shafts
- Ramp-up16 and 20 Shafts
Enhance the competitiveness of the portfolio
Continuous improvement in safety and productivity
- Grow exposure to low-cost mechanised assets
- Zimbabwe
- North American Palladium
- Waterberg
- Other value-accretive opportunities
Strengthen our licence to operate
- Implement wage settlement
- Maintain operational continuity at Marula
- Manage growing community expectations
- Sustain role/position in Zimbabwe
Capital allocation
- Further enhance balance sheet flexibility
- Operational excellence
- Dividends from associates
- Inventory release
- Sustainable shareholder returns through dividend payments and/or share buybacks
Implats - UBS investor call | 18 |
Implats - UBS investor call
December 2019
Attachments
- Original document
- Permalink
Disclaimer
Impala Platinum Holdings Limited published this content on 06 December 2019 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 06 December 2019 09:05:04 UTC