The nation has now recovered roughly one-third of the 22 million jobs it lost to the pandemic recession. And with confirmed coronavirus cases spiking across the
The re-closings are keeping layoffs elevated: The number of Americans who sought unemployment benefits barely fell last week to 1.47 million. Though that weekly figure has declined steadily since peaking in late March, it's still more than double the pre-pandemic peak set in 1982. And the total number of people receiving jobless aid remains at a sizable 19 million.
Credit and debit card data tracked by
Nationwide, card spending fell nearly 13% last week compared with a year ago. That’s worse than the previous week, when year-over-year card spending had fallen just under 10%.
And Kronos, which produces time management software, has found that in the past two weeks, growth in the number of shifts worked has slowed in the Southeast and is now rising at just half the rate of the Northeast.
“The pace of recovery is starting to slow,” said
Thursday’s jobs report is based on data gathered in the second week of June, which helps explain why the figures reflect an improving trend. Last week’s plateau in work shifts will instead affect the July jobs figures, to be released in early August.
McDonald’s has paused its reopening efforts nationwide, and Apple says it will re-close 30 more of its
Economists have long warned that the economic benefits of allowing businesses to reopen would prove short-lived if the virus wasn’t brought under control. Until most Americans feel confident enough to dine out, travel, shop or congregate in groups without fear of infection, restaurants, hotels and retailers will lack enough customer demand to justify rehiring all their previous workers.
Still, some bright spots in the economy have emerged in recent weeks. Manufacturers expanded in June after three months of shrinking, the
And record-low mortgage rates are encouraging more home buyers. Purchases of new homes rose sharply in May. And a measure of signed contracts to buy existing homes soared by a record amount, a sign that sales should rebound after falling for three straight months.
THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE. AP’s earlier story is below:
Economists have forecast that businesses, governments and nonprofits added 3 million jobs — a record high — and that the unemployment rate fell a full percentage point to 12.3%, according to data provider FactSet. The predicted hiring gain would be up from 2.5 million jobs in May. Even so, the combined job growth for May and June would recover only a fraction of the 22 million jobs that were lost in March and April, when the virus forced business shutdowns and layoffs across the country.
And even a jobless rate above 10% wouldn’t fully capture the scope of the pandemic’s damage to the job market and the economy. Millions more people are working part time but would prefer full-time work. And an unusually high proportion of workers have been subject to pay cuts, research has found.
With confirmed coronavirus cases spiking across the
On Wednesday,
Credit and debit card data tracked by
Nationwide, card spending fell nearly 13% last week compared with a year ago. That was worse than the previous week, when year-over-year card spending had declined just under 10%.
Real-time data from Homebase, a provider of time-tracking software for small businesses, shows that the number of hours worked at its client companies has levelled off after having risen sharply in May and early June. Business re-openings have also flattened. The economic bounce produced by the initial lifting of shutdown orders may have run its course.
Still, Thursday’s jobs report will be based on data gathered in the second week of June, so it will still likely reflect an improving hiring trend. Last week’s plateau in hours worked will instead affect the July jobs figures, to be released in early August.
“Whatever picture the jobs report gives us, things have become worse since then," said
In addition to the renewed shutdowns across the
McDonald's has paused its reopening efforts nationwide. And Apple said it will re-close 30 more of its
Economists have long warned that the economic benefits of allowing businesses to reopen would prove short-lived if the virus wasn't brought under control. Until most Americans feel confident enough to dine out, travel, shop or congregate in groups without fear of infection, restaurants, hotels and retailers won't have enough demand to justify rehiring all their previous workers.
“The path forward for the economy is extraordinarily uncertain and will depend in large part on our success in containing the virus,” Federal Reserve Chair
Still, some bright spots in the economy may emerge in Thursday's jobs report. Manufacturers expanded in June after three months of shrinking, the
And record-low mortgage rates are encouraging more home buyers. Purchases of new homes rose sharply in May. And a measure of signed contracts to buy existing homes soared by a record amount in May, a sign that sales should rebound after falling for three straight months.
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