FIRST QUARTER 2020 EARNINGS
May 1, 2020
CAUTIONARY STATEMENT AND
INFORMATION RELATED TO FINANCIAL MEASURES
CAUTIONARY STATEMENT
The statements in this presentation relating to matters that are not historical facts are forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are based upon assumptions of management which are believed to be reasonable at the time made and are subject to significant risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ materially based on factors including, but not limited to, the business cyclicality of the chemical, polymers and refining industries; the availability, cost and price volatility of raw materials and utilities, particularly the cost of crude oil, natural gas, and associated natural gas liquids; competitive product and pricing pressures; labor conditions; our ability to attract and retain key personnel; operating interruptions (including leaks, explosions, fires, weather-related incidents, mechanical failure, unscheduled downtime, supplier disruptions, labor shortages, strikes, work stoppages or other labor difficulties, transportation interruptions, spills and releases and other environmental risks); the supply/demand balances for our and our joint ventures' products, and the related effects of industry production capacities and operating rates; our ability to achieve expected cost savings and other synergies; our ability to successfully execute projects and growth strategies; any proposed business combination, the expected timetable for completing any proposed transactions and the receipt of any required governmental approvals, future financial and operating results, benefits and synergies of any proposed transactions, future opportunities for the combined company; legal and environmental proceedings; tax rulings, consequences or proceedings; technological developments, and our ability to develop new products and process technologies; potential governmental regulatory actions; political unrest and terrorist acts; risks and uncertainties posed by international operations, including foreign currency fluctuations; and our ability to comply with debt covenants and service our debt. Additional factors that could cause results to differ materially from those described in the forward-looking statements can be found in the "Risk Factors" section of our Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2019, which can be found at www.LyondellBasell.com on the Investor Relations page and on the Securities and Exchange Commission's website at www.sec.gov.
The illustrative results or returns of growth projects are not in any way intended to be, nor should they be taken as, indicators or guarantees of performance. The assumptions on which they are based are not projections and do not necessarily represent the Company's expectations and future performance. You should not rely on illustrated results or returns or these assumptions as being indicative of our future results or returns.
This presentation contains time sensitive information that is accurate only as of the date hereof. Information contained in this presentation is unaudited and is subject to change. We undertake no obligation to update the information presented herein except as required by law.
INFORMATION RELATED TO FINANCIAL MEASURES
This presentation makes reference to certain "non-GAAP" financial measures as defined in Regulation G of the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended.
EBITDA, as presented herein, may not be comparable to a similarly titled measure reported by other companies due to differences in the way the measure is calculated. We calculate EBITDA as income from continuing operations plus interest expense (net), provision for (benefit from) income taxes, and depreciation & amortization. EBITDA should not be considered an alternative to profit or operating profit for any period as an indicator of our performance, or as an alternative to operating cash flows as a measure of our liquidity. We also present EBITDA exclusive of adjustments for "lower of cost or market" ("LCM"), which is an accounting rule consistent with GAAP related to the valuation of inventory. Our inventories are stated at the lower of cost or market. Cost is determined using the last-in,first-out ("LIFO") inventory valuation methodology, which means that the most recently incurred costs are charged to cost of sales and inventories are valued at the earliest acquisition costs. Market is determined based on an assessment of the current estimated replacement cost and selling price of the inventory. In periods where the market price of our inventory declines substantially, cost values of inventory may be higher than the market value, which reduces the value of inventory to market value. This adjustment is related to the recent decline in pricing for many of our raw material and finished goods inventories. Fluctuation in the prices of crude oil, natural gas and correlated products from period to period may result in the recognition of charges to adjust the value of inventory to the lower of cost or market in periods of falling prices and the reversal of those charges in subsequent interim periods as market prices recover.
Cash from operations yield from EBITDA excluding LCM is a measure that provides an indicator of a company's operational efficiency and management. Cash from operations yield from EBITDA excluding LCM, as presented herein, may not be comparable to similarly titled measures reported by other companies due to differences in the way the measures are calculated. For purposes of this presentation, cash from operating activities yield from EBITDA means cash from operating activities divided by EBITDA excluding LCM.
The ratio of total debt to EBITDA excluding LCM and free operating cash flow are measures of profitability commonly used by investors to evaluate performance, the ratio of total debt to EBITDA excluding LCM and free operating cash flow, as presented herein, may not be comparable to similarly titled measures reported by other companies due to differences in the way the measures are calculated. For purposes of this presentation, the ratio of total debt to EBITDA is the sum of long term debt and short term debt divided by EBITDA excluding LCM. Free operating cash flow means net cash provided by operating activities minus sustaining (maintenance and HSE) capital expenditures. Additionally, total liquidity is a measure that provides an indicator of value to investors. For purposes of this presentation, total liquidity includes cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash and restricted cash equivalents, short term investments, and availability under our Senior Revolving Credit Facility and our Receivables Facility.
Reconciliations for our non-GAAP measures can be found on our website at www.LyondellBasell.com/investorrelations.
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FIRST QUARTER 2020 HIGHLIGHTS
RESILIENT PORTFOLIO THAT IS WELL POSITIONED FOR CHALLENGING MARKETS
$0.1 B | $0.6 B | $0.42 | $0.4 B | |||
NET INCOME | EBITDA | DILUTED EPS | DIVIDENDS | |||
$0.5 B | $1.1 B | $1.47 | ||||
NET INCOME ex. LCM | EBITDA ex. LCM | DILUTED EPS ex. LCM | ||||
3
IMPACT OF COVID-19 AND OIL PRICE VOLATILITY
LYONDELLBASELL IS TAKING ACTION TO MITIGATE MARKET EFFECTS
STATE OF
CURRENT OPERATIONS
All major sites operating
Several small APS sites idled or
running at reduced rates
Reducing operating rates to meet
decreased demand
ACTIONS
WE ARE TAKING
Implemented recommended
safe work practices
Reducing 2020 CAPEX by $500 MM
Reducing inventories
Increased liquidity by $2 B
Affirming commitment to a strong
investment grade rating
1Q20 MARKET
IMPACTS
Declining fuel, automotive and durables
market demand
Strong packaging and
medical grade polymer demand
Resilient integrated polyethylene margins
4
PLASTIC PACKAGING MARKET INDICATORS
CONSUMER HABITS EXPECTED TO CHANGE
Sales
USD % Change
250%
200%
150%
100%
50%
0%
Jan-Feb | 8-Mar | 15-Mar | 22-Mar | 29-Mar | 5-Apr | |||||
2020 | ||||||||||
Paper products | Healthcare Goods | Packaged Food | Dairy | Frozen | ||||||
PANTRY STOCK | MEDIUM TERM |
DEMAND |
5
~40%
WILL WORK FROM HOME
MORE OFTEN
~65%
WILL EAT AT HOME
MORE OFTEN
Source: IRI; April survey of US Primary Grocery Shoppers that complied with stay at home orders.
CONSISTENT SAFETY FOCUS
INCORPORATING BEST PRACTICES FOR VIRUS RESPONSE
Injuries per 200,000 hours worked 0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
2016 2017 2018 2019 1Q20
LyondellBasell | ACC Top Quartile | |
6 | Source: American Chemistry Council (ACC) and LyondellBasell. Note: Number of hours |
worked includes employees and contractors. Data includes safety performance from the |
acquisition of A. Schulman from August 21, 2018 forward.
INDUSTRIAL HYGIENE
SOCIAL DISTANCING
HEALTH MONITORING
OUR PRODUCTS SUPPORT THE FIGHT AGAINST COVID-19
CHEMICALS AND PLASTICS SUPPORT ESSENTIAL NEEDS FOR SOCIETY
MELT-BLOWN POLYPROPYLENE | ALCOHOLS | POLYOLEFINS |
Face Masks | Hand Sanitizer | Test Kits & Medical Devices |
STRONG CASH CONVERSION
DELIVERING TYPICAL PATTERN OF CASH FROM OPERATING ACTIVITIES
Cash from Operating Activities USD, billions
$7
6
5
4
3
2
1
2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 1Q20 LTM |
Free Operating Cash Flow | Sustaining Capex | ||||
90%
CASH FROM OPERATING ACTIVITIES / EBITDA ex. LCM
1Q20 LTM
$4.8 B
CASH FROM OPERATING ACTIVITIES
1Q20 LTM
$3.8 B
FREE OPERATING CASH FLOW
1Q20 LTM
8 | Note: Free Operating Cash Flow = cash from operating activities - sustaining (maintenance and HSE) capital expenditures. |
CASH GENERATION AND DEPLOYMENT
CASH FLOW SUPPORTING ACCRETIVE INVESTMENTS AND SHAREHOLDER RETURNS
DELIVERING RESULTS
Cash from operating activities $0.5 B
GROWINGTHROUGH INVESTMENT
Building PO/TBA plant
RETURNINGVALUE TO SHAREHOLDERS
USD, billions $4
3
2
$1.8
1$1.1
Dividends $351 MM | 1Q20 | Cash from | Change in | CAPEX | Dividends & | Other | 1Q20 |
Beginning | Operating | Debt | Share | Ending | |||
Balance | Activities | Repurchases | Balance |
9 | Note: Beginning and ending cash balances include cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, and liquid investments. CAPEX includes growth and sustaining |
(maintenance and HSE) capital. |
MAXIMIZING LIQUIDITY
LYONDELLBASELL IS PREPARED FOR A RANGE OF SCENARIOS
ACTIONS SUPPORTING | ACTIONS REDUCING | |
CASH INFLOW | CASH OUTFLOW | |
Accelerating cost efficiency initiatives | Reducing 2020 CAPEX by $500 MM |
Increased liquidity by $2 B to more than $5 B | Deferring planned maintenance |
Aggressively managing inventories | Prioritizing liquidity over |
to reduce working capital | share repurchases and M&A |
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STRONG BALANCE SHEET
DEMONSTRATING PRUDENT FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT
ROBUST LIQUIDITY
Total liquidity >$5 B
April 24, 2020
MODERATE LEVERAGE RATIO
Total debt / EBITDA ex. LCM 2.5x 1Q20 LTM
STRONG INVESTMENT GRADE
Credit rating BBB/Baa1
Long-Term Debt USD, billions
$ 3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 … 2030 2031 … 2043 2044 … 2049 2050 … 2055
USD | EUR | |
Note: Long-term debt as of April 20, 2020. Includes the 2.875% Senior Notes due 2025, 3.375% Senior Notes due 2030 and 4.20% Senior Notes due 2050 issued on
11April 20, 2020. Excludes debt discount, debt issuance cost and leases classified as long-term. 2022 long term debt includes $500 MM borrowed under our RCF and $1.95 B borrowed under our 2022 Term Loan, which can be repaid without penalty. EUR notes outstanding are shown in USD equivalent using a FX rate of 1.085 USD to 1 EUR. Long term weighted average interest rate reduced from 3.78% to 3.76% as a result of the April 20, 2020 issuance.
UPDATED 2020 MODELING INFORMATION
CAPITAL
EXPENDITURES
MAJOR
PLANNED
MAINTENANCE EBITDA IMPACT
Sustaining CAPEX | |
Total CAPEX | ~$0.8 B |
~$1.9 B | Profit Generating CAPEX |
~$1.1 B |
1Q | 2Q | 3Q | 4Q | |
O&P - Americas | ||||
~$25 MM | ~$30 MM | |||
O&P - EAI | -- | -- | ||
I&D | ~$10 MM | ~$10 MM | -- | -- |
FINANCIAL
METRICS
Interest Expense
~$410 MM
Depreciation & Amortization
~$1.5 B
Pension Contribution
~$80 MM
Pension Expense
~$100 MM
Effective Tax Rate
Mid-teens %
12 | Note: Interest expense includes ~$45 MM capitalized interest. |
RESILIENT PORTFOLIO
DIVERSE GLOBAL BUSINESS PORTFOLIO PROVIDES STABILITY
EBITDA ex. LCM USD, billions
$2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
1Q19 | 2Q19 | 3Q19 | 4Q19 | 1Q20 | ||
EBITDA | EBITDA ex. LCM | |||||
13
CONSUMER DRIVEN
Majority of portfolio supports non-durables
CHALLENGING
Market conditions
ADVANTAGED
Reliable assets with feedstock flexibility
SUPERIOR FEEDSTOCK FLEXIBILITY
ROBUST FEEDSTOCK OPTIMIZATION ENHANCES PROFITABILITY
GLOBAL CRACKER NETWORK
Full-range assets that utilize ethane, propane, butane, y-grade, naphtha and other advantaged feeds
NORTH AMERICA
Advantaged feeds in both the U.S. Gulf Coast and Midwest markets
EUROPE
Capability to run ~50 % non-naphtha feedstocks such as propane, butane, condensates and refinery streams
Ethylene Production
100%
75%
50%
25%
LyondellBasell | Industry | LyondellBasell | Industry |
North America | North America | Europe | Europe |
Full-range | Ethane/Propane | Ethane | Naphtha | |||
14 | Note: Full-range for North America represents the production that may switch between ethane, propane, butane and other liquids such as naphtha. Full range |
for Europe represents the production that may switch between naphtha, propane, butane and other advantaged feeds such as condensate and hydrowax. |
FEEDSTOCK FLEXIBILITY PROVIDES MARGIN BENEFITS
DIVERSE GLOBAL BUSINESS PORTFOLIO PROVIDES RESILIENCE
NORTH AMERICA
Maximizing value by optimizing feedstocks in our flexible crackers
EUROPE
Maximizing value across naphtha, LPGs and other advantaged feedstocks
North America Integrated PE Margin
USD / ton
$1,000 | ||||||||||||||
800 | ||||||||||||||
600 | ||||||||||||||
400 | ||||||||||||||
200 | ||||||||||||||
2017 | 2018 | 2019 | Jan 20 | Feb20 | Mar 20 | Apr20 | ||||||||
-200 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | Jan 20 | Feb 20 | Mar 20 | Apr 20 | |||||||
Ethane Margin | Naphtha Margin | HDPE Margin | ||||||||||||
Europe Integrated PE Margin
USD / ton
$1,000 800 600 400 200
-200 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | Jan 20 Feb 20 Mar 20 Apr 20 | |||
Naphtha Margin | HDPE Margin | ||||||
15 | Source: IHS Markit. |
OLEFINS & POLYOLEFINS - AMERICAS
STRONG DEMAND SUPPORTED SEASONAL POLYETHYLENE PRICE INCREASE
EBITDA ex. LCM
USD, millions
$635 | $653 | OLEFINS |
$516 | $523 | Margin declined due lower ethylene prices partially offset |
$477 | by decreased feedstock prices |
Volume declined due to planned maintenance
POLYOLEFINS
Launched production at 500 kta HyperzonePE plant
Polyethylene spread increased
1Q19 | 2Q19 | 3Q19 | 4Q19 | Volume Margin | Other | 1Q20 | ||
EBITDA | EBITDA ex. LCM | |||||||
16
OLEFINS & POLYOLEFINS - EUROPE, ASIA & INTERNATIONAL
LOWER FEEDSTOCK COSTS, INCREASED RELIABILITY AND HIGHER VOLUMES DROVE SEQUENTIAL IMPROVEMENT
EBITDA ex. LCM
USD, millions
$331
$296$291
$225
$144
1Q19 | 2Q19 | 3Q19 | 4Q19 | Volume Margin | Other | 1Q20 | ||
EBITDA | EBITDA ex. LCM | |||||||
OLEFINS
Margin improved due to lower feedstock prices
Volume increased due to improved reliability
POLYOLEFINS
Volume increased and spreads declined in both polyethylene and polypropylene
EQUITY INCOME
Margins and volumes declined
17
INTERMEDIATES & DERIVATIVES
OXYFUELS MARGINS DECLINED DUE TO LOWER GASOLINE DEMAND IN MARCH
EBITDA ex. LCM
USD, millions
$448
$390$390
$329
PO & DERIVATIVES
Volume and margin increased due to U.S. demand and industry outages
INTERMEDIATE CHEMICALS
$281
Margins increased, mostly in acetyls
Volume declined due to planned maintenance
OXYFUELS & RELATED PRODUCTS
1Q19 | 2Q19 | 3Q19 | 4Q19 | Volume Margin | Other | 1Q20 | Margins decreased driven by lower product prices | ||
EBITDA | EBITDA ex. LCM | ||||||||
18
ADVANCED POLYMER SOLUTIONS
SEASONAL IMPROVEMENTS MUTED BY LOW DEMAND AND SHUTDOWNS IN AUTOMOTIVE END MARKETS
EBITDA ex. LCM
USD, millions
$148
$120 | $115 |
$102 |
$62
1Q19 | 2Q19 | 3Q19 | 4Q19 | Volume Margin | Other | 1Q20 | ||
EBITDA | EBITDA ex. LCM | |||||||
COMPOUNDING & SOLUTIONS
Continued low automotive demand and COVID-19 impact
Margins and volumes increased
ADVANCED POLYMERS
Catalloyvolume and margin increased due to seasonal construction demand
INTEGRATION COSTS
$14 MM in 1Q20
19 | NOTE: 1Q19 through 1Q20 EBITDA includes integration costs of $130 MM. |
REFINING
DIMINISHED MARGINS, LOWER VOLUME AND FCC OUTAGE STRESSED PROFITABILITY
EBITDA ex. LCM
USD, millions
$22 | CRUDE THROUGHPUT | ||||
226 MBPD - impacted by unplanned maintenance | |||||
$(15) | $(6) | ||||
$(66) $(80)
1Q19 | 2Q19 | 3Q19 | 4Q19 | Volume Margin | Other | 1Q20 | ||
EBITDA | EBITDA ex. LCM | |||||||
20
MARGIN DECLINE
Maya 2-1-1 decreased by $2.23 to $17.21 Inability to upgrade fuels during FCC outage
TECHNOLOGY
LICENSING IMPACTED BY REVENUE TIMING WITH CONTINUED STRONG CATALYST SALES
EBITDA
USD, millions
$138
$107
$83$83
$56
LICENSING
Reduced number of revenue milestones in 1Q20 versus
significant milestones reached in 4Q19
CATALYST
Continued strong catalyst volumes
1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20
21
FIRST QUARTER 2020 SUMMARY & OUTLOOK
RESILIENT PORTFOLIO THAT IS WELL POSITIONED FOR CHALLENGING MARKETS
LEADING | DISCIPLINED | CHALLENGING | PROACTIVE |
ADVANTAGED | FINANCIAL | OUTLOOK | BUSINESS |
POSITIONS | POLICIES | RESPONSES |
Reliable, cost efficient operator | Efficient cash generation | Declining fuel, automotive and | Increased liquidity |
Feedstock flexibility | Secure dividend | durables market demand | Accelerating cost efficiencies |
Resilient portfolio | Committed to strong | Strong polymer demand from | Reducing inventories and |
investment grade rating | packaging and medical markets | 2020 CAPEX |
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LyondellBasell Industries NV published this content on 01 May 2020 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 01 May 2020 22:38:10 UTC