MOL GROUP
INVESTOR PRESENTATION
August 2020
MOL GROUP IN BRIEF
INTEGRATED CENTRAL EUROPEAN MID-CAP OIL & GAS COMPANY
CORE ACTIVITIES
UPSTREAM | DOWNSTREAM | CONSUMER | GAS |
SERVICES | |||
Exploration | Petrochemicals | MIDSTREAM | |
Retail | |||
Production | Refining | Mobility | |
CLEAN CCS EBITDA BY SEGMENTS IN 2019 (USD MN)
UPSTREAM | DOWNSTREAM | CONSUMER | GAS |
1,052 | 866 | 471 | 187 |
KEY FIGURES
CAPITAL MARKETS | BUSINESS / ASSETS | ||||||
Market | Free float | Countries | 25,000 | 111 | Reserves | ||
cap. | DJSI | (Mmboe) | |||||
33 | Production | ||||||
USD 4.9bn | Constituent | Employees | 270 | ||||
(mboepd) | |||||||
INVESTMENT | 379 | Steam | ~1,900 | Retail | |||
USD7.7 | cracker1 | transactions | |||||
GRADE | mn | Refinery | capacity | Service | per day | ||
capacity | |||||||
Liquidity | 890 | (ktpa) | stations | 1,000,000 | |||
(mbpd) | |||||||
(last 6M avg.) | |||||||
2
(1) Ethylene
MOL GROUP GEOGRAPHY
CEE-BASED INTEGRATED OPERATIONS AND INTERNATIONAL UPSTREAM
SLOVAKIA
CZECHREP.
HUNGARY
SLOVENIA
CROATIA
BOSNIA
MONTENEGRO
UK
RUSSIA
NORWAY
KAZAKHSTAN
AZERBAIJAN
HQ
IRAQ
PAKISTAN | |
OMAN | |
ROMANIA | EGYPT |
SYRIA | |
(IN FORCEMAJEURE) | |
SERBIA |
ANGOLA
UPSTREAM | DOWNSTREAM | CONSUMER SERVICES |
3
AGENDA
THE MOL GROUP EQUITY STORY
SUPPORTING SLIDES
Q2 2020 RECAP
DOWNSTREAM
CONSUMER SERVICES
EXPLORATION AND PRODUCTION
FINANCIALS, GOVERNANCE AND OTHERS
4
THE MOL GROUP EQUITY STORY
DELIVERING TODAY, READY TO DELIVER TOMORROW
Efficiency & Safety: systematic focus on efficiency and safety in each business
Integration: deeply integrated business model provides remarkable cash flow stability
Resilience: high-quality,low-cost asset base, breaking even at the bottom of the cycle
MOL2030: transforming MOL for "beyond the fuel age"
Downstream: cash engine to drive "fuel to chemicals" transformation
Consumer Services: becoming a true consumer goods retailer and leading the revolution of transportation in CEE
E&P: highly value accretive barrels fund inorganic reserve replacement
Gas Midstream: stable, non-cyclical cash flows
Financials: robust financial framework supports strategic transformation
Sustainable: transforming to low carbon world
6
DOWNSTREAM: CASH ENGINE TO DRIVE "FUEL TO CHEMICALS" TRANSFORMATION AND GROWTH
DELIVERING TODAY
High-quality,low-cost asset base
Market leading position in Central Europe with long-standing customer relations
Strong captive markets and a deeply integrated refining-chemicals-distribution value chain
Proven efficiency track record: almost USD 1bn EBITDA uplift since 2011
Outstanding margin capture, capable of delivering double-digit unit EBITDA (USD/bbl)
READY TO DELIVER TOMORROW
Enhancing flexibility in refining and substantially reducing motor fuel yield by 2030 mostly through increasing feedstock transfer to chemicals
Investing USD 4.5bn by 2030 to grow in chemicals by moving deeper along the value chain
Sustainability: aiming to become a recycling leader in CEE, investing in decarbonization and energy efficiency
DS2022: delivering net efficiency gains and a visible EBITDA contribution from the transformational projects
7
CONSUMER SERVICES: BECOMING A TRUE CONSUMER GOODS RETAILER AND LEADING THE REVOLUTION OF TRANSPORTATION IN CEE
DELIVERING TODAY
Leading CEE fuel retailer with ~1,900 sites, market leader in 4 countries
Exploiting the fuel market potential in CEE
Increasing Fresh Corner penetration (45%+), rising non-fuel contribution (at ~30%), searching for the "next coffee"
READY TO DELIVER TOMORROW
USD 600mn+ EBITDA in 2023 from a more diverse portfolio
Boosting Consumer Goods EBITDA with proficient FMCG capabilities
Scaling up mobility services with car sharing, fleet management and public transport
Digitalizing customer interactions and operations
8
E&P: HIGHLY VALUE ACCRETIVE BARRELS TO FUND INORGANIC RESERVE REPLACEMENT
DELIVERING TODAY
Production to average at 115-120 mboepd in 2020, including the contribution from ACG from 16 April
Strong cost discipline with an E&P cost base fit for the bottom of the cycle
New measures adjusted capex and opex to bring down portfolio-levelcash breakeven to around USD 25/boe
Proven capabilities to operate mature, onshore assets in a cost-efficient way
READY TO DELIVER TOMORROW
MOL 2030: transforming to a sustainable international Upstream portfolio
9
GAS MIDSTREAM: STABLE, NON-CYCLICAL CASH FLOW
DELIVERING TODAY
Regulated domestic transmission business
Profitable international transit business spanning 6 regional countries
Recent years saw significant pipeline and trade infrastructure developments as well as efficiency improvements
READY TO DELIVER TOMORROW
European gas market trends (increasing liquidity and interconnectedness) to bring opportunities and upside
10
ROBUST FINANCIAL FRAMEWORK SUPPORTS STRATEGIC TRANSFORMATION
DELIVERING TODAY
H1 2020: lower EBITDA, but positive simplified FCF despite the pandemic and economic crisis
New 2020 EBITDA guidance of USD 1.7-1.9bn with unchanged capex guidance of "up to USD 1.5bn"
Strong commitment remains to continue with the 2030 strategic projects, including the USD 3bn+ investments earmarked for downstream transformational projects in 2019-23
Robust balance sheet a priority; credit metrics to be commensurate with investment grade credit rating
Steadily growing cash base dividend per share, complemented by special dividends from macro upside
READY TO DELIVER TOMORROW
MOL 2030 financial framework: existing assets shall generate sufficient free cash flow to fund strategic Downstream capex, Upstream reserve replacement and rising dividends
MOL 2030 works with or without INA; good asset fit, but with declining importance
11
SUSTAINABLE: TRANSFORMING TO LOW CARBON WORLD
DELIVERING TODAY
Sustainable Development Committee integral part of the Board of Directors
Minimize environmental footprint in line with climate change policy
Only Emerging European corporation member of the Dow Jones Sustainability Index
Strong sustainability scores across leading ESG research/rating providers
TRANSFORMING FOR TOMORROW
MOL 2030: transforming MOL to adapt to circular economy and a low carbon world
MOL total carbon footprint to decline driven by fuel to chemicals transformation
New integrated sustainability and climate strategy to address decarbonization
MEMBER OF: | RATED BY: |
12
MOL GROUP 2030:
DELIVERING TODAY, READY TO DELIVER TOMORROW
TODAY
FROM FUELS
FROM FUEL RETAILING
FROM CEE
FROM BACK
OFFICE
Significantly reducing motor fuel yield Becoming the leading CEE chemicals company
Becoming a true consumer goods retailer Leading the revolution of transport in CEE
100% reserves replacement
Mostly through inorganic steps
Digital transformation
Making functional areas real strategy enablers
TOMORROW
TO CHEMICALS
TO CONSUMER
GOODS/MOBILITY
TO
INTERNATIONAL
UPSTREAM
TO DIGITAL
ORGANIZATION
13
MOL 2030: TRACKING PROGRESS IN 2017-19 - WE ARE DELIVERING
DOWNSTREAM
CONSUMERS
E&P
FINANCIALS
INTERIM TARGETS
EFFICIENCY
ENTER NEW CHEMICAL
PRODUCT LINE(S)
EBITDA 2023: USD 600MN+
RISING NON-FUEL
CONTRIBUTION
STABLE PRODUCTION,
STRONG FCF IN 2017-19
START INORGANIC RESERVE
REPLACEMENT
USD 2.0-2.2BN EBITDA; USD 1.0-1.1BN
SIMPLIFIED FCF (AVG.P.A.)
RISING DIVIDEND PER SHARE
2017-2019 STATUS
DS2022 EFFICIENCY DELIVERED USD 110MN IN 2018,
ADDED USD 40MN IN 2019
POLYOL PROJECT ON SCHEDULE, ON BUDGET, REACHED 50% COMPLETION,
CONSTRUCTION STARTED & MARKETING TEAM SET UP
EBITDA: USD 471MN IN 2019
2023 TARGET UPGRADED TO USD 600MN
29.8% SHARE IN Q4 2019 (OF TOTAL MARGIN);
30% TARGET REACHED MUCH EARLIER THAN EXPECTED
2017-2019 PRODUCTION: 107-112 MBOEPD,
2017-2019 SIMPLIFIED FCF: USD 14-25/BOE
ACG/BTC ACQUISITION
2017-2019: EBITDA USD 2.4-2.7BN,
SIMPLIFIED FCF: USD 1.4BN IN 2017-18; USD 0.36 IN 2019
10% CAGR IN BASE DPS IN 2017-19
50% TOP-UP AS SPECIAL DIVIDEND IN BOTH 2018 AND 2019
SUSTAINABILITY | TOP 15% O&G INDUSTRY | DJSI INCLUSION IN EACH YEAR (TOP 10% IN 2019) | ||
14
DOWNSTREAM
INTEGRATED DOWNSTREAM MODEL IN CEE
11COUNTRIES
5
SALES OF 19mtpa
REFINED PRODUCTS
AND 1.11 mtpa
PETROCHEMICALS
EMPLOYEES
9,400
16
HIGH QUALITY CORE REFINING ASSETS
COMPLEX REFINERIES WITH VERY HIGH WHITE PRODUCT YIELD
NCI
REFINERY NELSON COMPLEXITY OF PEERS1
16 | 6.1 Mtpa | |||||
14 | ||||||
8.1 Mtpa | ||||||
11.5 | 4.5 Mtpa | |||||
12 | 10.6 | 9.1 | ||||
10 | ||||||
8
6
4
2
0
#1 #2 #3 Bratislava #4 #5 #6 Danube #7 #8 #9 #10 #11 Rijeka #12 #13 #14 #15 #16 #17 #18 #19 #20 #21 #22
GROUP REFINERY YIELD, 2019 (%)
8.9% | 2.4% | LPG |
9.4% | ||
10.0% | 8.1% | Naphta |
2.3% | 18.4% | Motor gasoline |
3.5% | Middle distillates | |
4.2% | 19.0% | Fuel oil |
Bitumen | ||
Other products | ||
45.2% | Own use & loss | |
45.9% |
CLEAN CCS-BASED DS UNIT EBITDA2 (USD/t) | DOWNSTREAM VOLUMES (2019, MN BBL) |
100 | Medium / heavy sour | 63 | ||||||||||
crude intake | ||||||||||||
80 | ||||||||||||
USD/t | 60 | Middle distillate | 61 | |||||||||
produced | ||||||||||||
40 | ||||||||||||
HFO | 4 | |||||||||||
20 | produced | |||||||||||
0 | High complexity provides high motor fuel yields, substantial | |||||||||||
H1 | H2 | H1 | H2 | H1 | H2 | H1 | H2 | H1 | ||||
2015 | 2015 | 2016 | 2016 | 2017 | 2017 | 2018 | 2018 | 2019 | middle distillate (diesel) output, material petchem feedstock | |||
Range | MOL Group | Median | and limited fuel oil output (Rijeka) | |||||||||
- Peer group consists of OMV, PKN, Lotos, Neste, Tupras, Galp, Motor Oil, Hellenic Petroleum, NIS
- Unit EBITDA range is based on volume sold and includes ELPE, Lotos, OMV, PKN, Tupras
~85% of total crude intake is Urals or other heavy crude
17
DEEP DOWNSTREAM INTEGRATION
MARKET LEADING POSITION WITH STRONG CUSTOMER RELATIONS IN CEE
MARKET SHARE (%)1 | DOWNSTREAM INTEGRATION (FUELS)2 |
~24%
CRUDE INTAKE:
• Russian:
66%
• Seaborne:
26% | ~85% | ~39% |
• Own
Refining
production:
8%
~80% | ||||||
~37% | captive | |||||
Retail | ~45% | market | ||||
<10% | 10-20% | 20-40% | 40+% | |||
own | ||||||
market 3 |
Deeply integrated portfolio of downstream assets | |
Complex and flexible core refineries | ~15% |
Very strong land-locked market presence | |
Retail network fully within refinery supply radius | |
Enhanced access to alternative crude supply |
18
- Estimate for 2019 FY; (2) Including motor fuels, heating oil & naphtha of landlocked refineries; (3) Own market is calculated as sales to own petchem and own retail over own production
PETROCHEMICALS IN MOL'S INTEGRATED DOWNSTREAM VALUE CHAIN
MOL PETROCHEMICAL VALUE CHAIN
OLEFINS | ||||
(ETHYLENE, | ||||
PROPYLENE, | ||||
C4 STREAM) | ||||
Refining | Ethylene | |||
Petchem | ||||
890 kt | ||||
Internal feedstock1:
~2.1 Mt in 2019
AROMATICS2
LDPE4: 220 ktpa unit replaced three old ones in Bratislava in 2016
Butadiene: 130 ktpa unit commissioned in 2016
SSBR: 60 ktpa unit (49% MOL stake)
- Considering steam cracker feedstock (naphtha & LPG) from Danube & Bratislava refineries only
- Considering 2018 production
Capacity | |
HDPE | 420 kt |
LDPE | 285 kt |
- 535 kt
Butadiene | 130 kt | SSBR | 60 kt |
350 kt
19
IMPROVING MARGIN CAPTURE BY 2023
DS 2022 PROGRAM TARGETS OFFSETTING POTENTIAL MACRO NORMALIZATION
DS EBITDA PROFITABILITY EVOLUTION (2017-23, USD/BBL)1
MOL group ref.: USD 4-5/bbl
Petchem: EUR 300-400/t | ||||||||
11.4 | 0.8 | |||||||
~3.5 | ||||||||
4.0-4.5 | Higher CO2 price | |||||||
Wage pressure in | ||||||||
6.9 | CEE | |||||||
~1.5 | ||||||||
R&M | ||||||||
12+ | ||||||||
7.0-7.5 | ||||||||
Petchem | 4.5 | 4-5 | ||||||
2017 CCS EBITDA | Macro | Normalized | Polyol | Other DS | Offsetting items | Post-2023 DS | Maintenance | |
normalization | CCS EBITDA | 2022 actions | 2 | CCS EBITDA | CAPEX |
(1) | Based on processed volumes w/o INA R&M (excl. raw water and reprocessed gasoil) | 20 |
(2) | DS 2022 program and additional benefits of 2023, excl. Rijeka DC |
PROVEN EFFICIENCY TRACK RECORD
GRADUALLY INCREASING FOCUS ON GROWTH AND TRANSFORMATION
PROGRAM SCOPEFINANCIALS
3 | 200+ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 500 | 150 |
years | Actions | Enabler1 | Operational2 | Large | USD mn | USD mn |
actions | actions | projects3 | EBITDA4 | |||
program | CAPEX | |||||
3 | 300+ | 0 | 0 | 8 | 500 | 1,200 |
years | Actions | Enabler1 | Operational2 | Large | USD mn | USD mn |
program | actions | actions | projects3 | EBITDA4 | CAPEX | |
6 | ~450 | 190 | 140 | 10+ | 600 | 3,200 |
years | Actions | Enabler1 | Operational2 | Large | USD mn | USD mn |
program | actions | actions | projects3 | EBITDA | CAPEX |
(1) Soft actions or very early stage ideas with progress tracking | |
(2) Actions with measured hard operational KPIs , but non-quantified financial impact | 21 |
- USD ›10 mn CAPEX
- Including Retail
DOWNSTREAM TO CONTINUE TO DELIVER NET EFFICIENCY GAIN
AND VISIBLE CONTRIBUTION FROM THE FIRST ROUND OF STRATEGIC, TRANSFORMATIONAL PROJECTS BY 2023
CLEAN CCS EBITDA EVOLUTION (USD MN) | ||||||||||
Consumer Services | Ref. margin: -2.0 USD/bbl | |||||||||
Petchem margin: -150 EUR/t | ||||||||||
~320 | 1,530 | 1,600+ | ||||||||
940 | 358 | ~400 | ||||||||
1,200+ | ||||||||||
~560 | 1,172 | |||||||||
350 | ||||||||||
2011 | Macro | Internal efficiency | Offsetting items | 2017 | Polyol and | Efficiency | Potential off- | EBITDA @ 2017 | Macro | Post-2023 |
delivered | strategic 1 | and other 1 | setting items 2 | macro in 2023 | normalization | EBITDA @ mid- | ||||
cycle macro |
N DSP
(1) DS 2022 program and additional benefits of 2023
(2) Offsetting items: wage pressure, CO2, etc.
22
DOWNSTREAM STRATEGY IS BUILT ON FOUR PILLARS
FUEL TO PETCHEM
Fuel conversion options
Steam cracker capacity expansions
FUEL TO | |
Drivers | PETCHEM |
VALUE CHAIN | |
Decreasing fuel | EXTENSION |
demand | |
Increasing | |
competitiveness | EFFICIENCY |
Increasing demand | |
for sustainable | SUSTAINABILITY |
plastics solutions in | |
a circular economy | EFFICIENCY |
Energy and | |
residue program |
INA DCU
DS 2022
VALUE CHAIN EXTENSION
Polyol
Diversification opportunities
Compounding
Results
Resilient investment portfolio compiled into DS 2030 Roadmap
SUSTAINABILITY
Advanced Biofuel
Recycling
Rubber Bitumen
23
FUEL TO PETCHEM: SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN YIELDS BY 2030 AND BEYOND
PETCHEM FEEDSTOCK, OTHER HIGH-VALUE PRODUCTS TO INCREASE BY 1-2 MN TONS
GROUP REFINERIES' YIELD (Mt) | NON-FUEL YIELD INCREASE ROADMAP | |
2015 | 2030 | Short-to-mid term opportunities, shifting 500-700kt: |
Fuels
High-valuenon-fuels
Black product
8.5
Refinery output: ~2mT to be converted as non-motor fuel output1
Utilizing existing flexibility to produce more naphtha, feeding the steam crackers
MPC and SN steam crackers' lifetime extension, efficiency improvement or intensification
FCC projects allow to increase propylene production at the expense of the gasoline pool
Lubricants yield to increase due to the new base oil and wax strategy
Mid-to-long term opportunities to shift up to 1.5mn tons:
Multiple technologies assessed how to rebalance refineries towards petchem production
~5 | |||||
3.0 | |||||
1.2 | ~1 | ||||
Refinery | Short to | 1st wave | 2nd wave of | Refinery | |
output | medium | of mid- | long term | output | |
(1) Considering MOL and Slovnaft refining | term | long term |
Investigated opportunities concern both gasoline and diesel pools
Changes to be implemented in a series of waves due to their size
24
VALUE CHAIN EXTENSION IN CHEMICALS: POLYOL
EARLY R&D, MARKETING EFFORTS TO SUPPORT GRADUAL PRODUCTION RAMP-UP
PRODUCTION RAMP-UP OF THE POLYOL PLANT
Propylene-glycol | 100% |
capacity | |
Polyol |
2021 2022 2023 Mid-cycle
USD 1.4bn investment for a 200kt p.a. polyol plant
Location: Tiszaújváros, Hungary
MARKET OPPORUNITIES OF POLYETHER POLYOL
• CASE (1)
• Rigid foamADDED VALUE
• Flexible foam
Internal sales and R&D teams are already set up to formulate marketing strategy
Original planned completion of H2 2021 may suffer small delays due to COVID-19
Mid-cycle EBITDA generation potential: USD 170mn
Progress: 65% overall project completion as of end of Q2 2020, construction works ongoing
During the ramp-up period production to be gradually shifting towards polyol
Ratio of high value-added products to increase with the development of R&D cooperation and commercial channels
25
(1) Coatings, Adhesives, Sealants, Elastomers
HOW TO PICK THE RIGHT PRODUCT/MARKET?
REPLICATING THE DOWNSTREAM SUCCESS STORY WITH STRONG CEE FOCUS
INVESTMENT LOGIC
Crude oil (naphtha) based chemistry and feedstock integration
Attractive end-user markets (Demand)
Limited regional competition (Supply)
Advanced technology, high entry barrier
Leverage on well-established customer relationship in CEE (capture inland premium)
Polyethylenes (LDPE, HDPE)
26
NAPHTHA-BASED PROPYLENE CHEMISTRY
ENTERING THE POLYURETHANES VALUE CHAIN
Petchem feedstock | Basic chemicals | Intermediates / pre-polymers | |
benzene | nitro- | MDI/PMDI | |
benzene | |||
naphtha | propylene | propylene | polyols |
-oxide | |||
toluene | nitro- | TDI | |
toluene | |||
OLEFIN
REFININGCHEMICAL COMPANIES
PRODUCERS
Polymers
Polyurethanes
(PUR)
PUR FORMULATORS
"SYSTEM HOUSES"
(R&D, technical service, END-USERS some production)
MOL GROUP
DIVERSIFICATION
current coverage
organic development
SPECIALISATION
27
ATTRACTIVE END-USER MARKETS
WIDESPREAD APPLICATION OF POLYOL AS PUR COMPONENT DRIVES DEMAND
GLOBAL POLYURETHANE DEMAND BY INDUSTRY (% OF
GLOBAL DEMAND
GROWTH DRIVERS
~30%
FURNITURE &
INTERIOR
~25%
CONSTRUCTION
~15%
AUTOMOTIVE
Improving access to "essentials of life", increasing comfort needs
Improving life expectancy and population growth
Improving energy efficiency in construction
Polyurethanes (PUR) have outstanding insulation characteristics, 50-70% less material required to reach same insulation value
Lighter weight vehicles to reduce fuel consumption
PP/PUR represent 50%+ of total plastic used in car manufacturing
Average plastic content of a midrange car grew fivefold since the 1970s (to up to 200kg), including ca. 20-25kg polyol today
28
LIMITED REGIONAL COMPETITION
MOL TO BECOME THE SOLE INTEGRATED REGIONAL POLYOL PRODUCER
Netherlands
Multiple units 984 ktpa LyondellBasell 80 ktpa Multiple units 1013 ktpa
Marl
Sasol 18 ktpa
Schwarzheide
Legend: LOCATION
POLYOL UNIT
PG UNIT
PO UNIT (TECHNOLOGY)
(PO/SM, PO/TBA)
Antwerp
BASF 170 ktpa
Bayer 250+60 ktpa BASF/Dow 300 ktpa (HPPO)
Dormagen/Cologne
Bayer 260 ktpa INEOS 120 ktpa INEOS 200 ktpa(Chlorohydrin)
Stade
DOW 290 ktpa DOW 630 ktpa (Chlorohydrin)
BASF 150 ktpa
Brzeg Dolny
PCC Rokita 100 ktpa PCC Rokita 48 ktpa (Chlorohydrin)
Bubble size shows the size of the plant
CE POLYOL MARKET
Supply Demand
~3% CAGR
Tertre
Dow 94 ktpa
LudwigshafenBASF 80 ktpa BASF 124 ktpa (Chlorohydrin)
~180
Current ~2025
Fos-sur-mer | ||
Tarragona | Bayer 140 ktpa | |
Puertollano | LyondellBasell 80 ktpa | |
Dow 60 ktpa | ||
LyondellBasell 220 ktpa | ||
Repsol 70 ktpa | Repsol 130 ktpa | |
(PO/TBA) | ||
Repsol 63 ktpa | ||
Barreiro | Repsol 200 ktpa | |
(SM/PO) | ||
PC Barreiro 10 ktpa | ||
Ramnicu Valcea Oltchim113ktpa Oltchim15 ktpa Oltchim 100 ktpa
(Chlorohydrin)
Source: company data
~250 kt CE consumption represent ~15% of total European demand
No ongoing capacity addition project in Europe
29
A HIGH MARGIN SEMI-COMMODITY PRODUCT
WITH AN EXPECTED USD 170MN+ MID-CYCLE EBITDA CONTRIBUTION
PROPYLENE VS. POLYOL SPREADS1 (EUR/T)
Relative deviation: PO - propylene: 18%
PP - propylene: 36%
1.200
1.000
800
600
400
200
0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Polyol - Propylene Spread | Polypropylene - Propylene spread | |
Moving from commodity (polypropylene) to semi- commodity (polyol): a 400-500 EUR/t step-up in average margin capture
CE producers enjoy 50+ EUR/t transportation cost advantage vs coastal NW-European producers
POLYOL PLANT EBITDA & SENSITIVITY (USD MN)
170+
~100
EBITDA generation @ mid-cycle | EBITDA generation @ |
bottom of the cycle |
Nominal payback : <10 years assuming mid-cycle margin environment
Propylene glycol production provides optionality in lower than mid-cycle margin environment
30
(1) Monthly nominal quotations
SUSTAINABILITY: FIRST STEPS TOWARDS DECARBONIZATION
SOLVENT RECLYING
COMPOUNDING
RUBBER BITUMEN
SOLAR POWER PLANT
BIOREFINERY
DECARBONIZATION
Strategic partnership for solvent-based recycling
Cooperation started in 2018
Acquisition of German recycled plastic compounder in 2019
Proprietary technology to recycle used tires since 2013
Expansion project ongoing with ~20kt capacity to be completed in 2020
Utilization of unused own industrial sites for solar power plant installation
Currently ~20+ MW installed
Investment in second generation biofuels
Focus of energy consumption reduction
Investigate other opportunities in recycling both as product design and technology
31
DIVERSIFIED PROJECT PIPELINE SUPPORTS TRANSFORMATION BY 2030
<20% | PROBABILITY | 100% | ||
CAPEX UNDER CONSIDERATION (USD BN) | ||||
THINK | ASSESS | SELECT | DEFINE | IMPLEMENT |
5.5 | |||||||
FCC Revamp | |||||||
Base Oil and Wax | |||||||
Fuels to | production strategy | MOL Blending | |||||
alternative crudes | |||||||
Petchem | |||||||
Aromatic Unit | PP3 Revamp | PP Splitter | |||||
Revamp | MPC SC LTE&Efficiency | ||||||
Metathesis | |||||||
HPP3 | HDPE-1 | Polyol | 2.1 | ||||
Advanced Biofuel | Value chain | Maleic Anhydride | |||||
MPC SC2 | |||||||
extension | Rubber Bitumen | ||||||
Intensification | 1.0 | ||||||
Mechanical recycling | Residue upgrade | 0.7 | |||||
Co-processing | |||||||
Value chain | Biorefinery | ||||||
extension 2nd | |||||||
wave | Efficiency | Fuel to | Sustainability | Value chain | |||
MOL-APK JV | petchem | extension | |||||
Compounding | |||||||
USD < 100mn | USD 100-500mn | USD 500+ mn | 32 | ||||
TRANSFORMATION PROGRAM OF INA R&M
DELAYED COKER RECEIVED FID IN Q4 2019
COMPLEX UPGRADE OF THE RIJEKA
REFINERY
USD | |||||
TRANSFORM SISAK INTO AN INDUSTRIAL | 100+ | ||||
Average yearly | SITE | mn | |||
EBITDA in the | |||||
last 10 years | |||||
STRONG REGIONAL MARKET POSITION | Average yearly | ||||
USD | |||||
EBITDA after 2023 | |||||
-90 | |||||
mn | FIRST CHOICE OF CUSTOMERS & | ||||
EMPLOYEES | |||||
RIJEKA | Final investment decision on | Propane-propylene | ||
REFINERY | Residue Upgrade project | splitter on-stream | ||
Q4 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | ||
SISAK | Discontinuation of | 2021 Start-up of | 2021 Start-up of Bitumen | |
REFINERY | Crude processing | Logistics Hub | production unit | |
RIJEKA REFINERY
Continuing the upgrade of the refinery via the installation of a Delayed Coker (DC) unit enabling full conversion and utilization
SISAK REFINERY
Discontinuation of crude processing and development of standalone alternative industrial activities
Residue Upgrade
unit on-stream
20222023
2021 Start-up of | 2023+ |
Lubricants production | Potential Bio |
refinery |
33
CRUDE DIVERSIFICATION CONTINUES
TARGETING 33% SEABORNE SUPPLY BY 2022
ADRIATIC PIPELINE ACCESS ESTABLISHED | ||
Increased | ||
pipeline | ||
capacity: | ||
6Mtpa = SN | ||
97% | ||
Increased | 3% | |
pipeline capacity: | ||
14Mtpa = MOL+SN | ||
2011 | ||
ENHANCING FEEDSTOCK FLEXIBILITY
CRUDE DIVERSIFICATION1
Ural
(Friendship
pipeline)
Seaborne | |
16% | 33% |
20192022
Majority of the crude intake to remain Ural, crude basket includes over 50 different types
Crude blending system (in Hungary) and new crude oil tanks (in Slovakia) are under construction to further enhance supply capability
Following the successful rehabilitation and expansion of the Friendship 1 pipeline, seaborne crude oil delivery to Slovnaft was launched in 2016
34
(1) MOL+Slovnaft
CONSUMER SERVICES
A LEADING REGIONAL NETWORK
MARKET LEADING
IN 60% OF THE NETWORK
TOP 3
IN 90% OF THE NETWORK
9 COUNTRIES
6 WELL ESTABLISHED BRANDS
1,900+
MOSTLY COCO / COCA SERVICE STATIONS
CZECH R.
MARKET POSITION: 2
MARKET SHARE: 20%
SLOVENIA
MARKET POSITION: 3
MARKET SHARE: 10%
CROATIA
MARKET POSITION: 1
MARKET SHARE: >50%
BiH
MARKET POSITION: 1
MARKET SHARE: 13%
SLOVAKIA
MARKET POSITION: 1
MARKET SHARE: 48%
HUNGARY
MARKET POSITION: 1
MARKET SHARE: 44%
ROMANIA
MARKET POSITION: 3
MARKET SHARE: 20%
SERBIA
MARKET POSITION: 5
MARKET SHARE: 5%
MONTENEGRO
MARKET POSITION: 3
MARKET SHARE: 15%
CORE 5 COUNTRIES
REFINERY
36
Market share sources: Hu, Ro, Sk, Cz - local oil associations, Slo, Cro, Srb, BiH, Me - own estimate
THREE STRATEGIC GOALS WITH UPGRADED TARGETS
STRATEGIC GOALS | |
1. RETAIL | Becoming a true consumer |
goods retailer |
Digitalizing customer
2. DIGITALinteractions and operations
Increasing our share in the
3. MOBILITYconsumers' spending for mobility services
STATUS
EBITDA: USD 471mn
Non-fuel margin: 29% of total margin in 2019
Advanced analytics pilots in Hungary
Car sharing in Budapest with 450 cars (increased EV fleet)
~4,000 cars in managed fleet (50%+ external)
STRATEGIC TARGETS
USD 600mn+ EBITDA target by 2023
Non-fuel margin contribution to reach 35% by 2023
Build proficient retailer capabilities
Digitalizing for more convenient and personalized offers
Data-driven reward management
Gradual build-up of mobility services: building up EV chargers and fleet operations
Continuing with car sharing, public transport
700
600
CONSUMER SERVICES EBITDA (USD MN)
FX effect | 600+ |
2016-2019 CAGR
Fuel
+4.5%
volume
COMMENTS
Volume growth slightly ahead of market implying market share growth
400
margin
+4.6%
Extending supply chain operations, focusing on coffee sales, optimizing number of SKUs
300
371
324 -10
-17
Non-fuel
200
100
0
307 361
427 471
margin
+19.3%
2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | … | 2023 |
MARKET-DRIVEN TAILWIND LIKELY TO SLOW DOWN
INCREASING MARKET SHARE MAY DRIVE FURTHER GROWTH IN FUEL MARGIN
4.5% | |||||||||||
TOTAL MOL GROUP FUEL VOLUME (BN LITERS) | |||||||||||
8 | 5.55 | +14% | 5.71 | 5.98 | |||||||
6 | |||||||||||
5.24 | |||||||||||
1.65 | 1.84 | 1.93 | 2.05 | ||||||||
4 | |||||||||||
2 | 3.59 | 3.71 | 3.78 | 3.93 | |||||||
0 | |||||||||||
2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | ||||||||
2.91 | 3.02 | 3.13 | 3.25 | ||||||||
Throughput / SeS (mn liters/site) | B2B | B2C | |||||||||
POSITIVE MID-TERM OUTLOOK
Volume
CEE markets may grow further albeit at a lower pace than in the previous years
CEE: Positive GDP/capita trend, increasing real wages and disposable income; low unemployment
Low EV penetration (2-3% in new car sales)
Non-cyclical business; possible recession will affect this segment with a few years lag
FUEL UNIT MARGIN (USD CENTS / LITERS)
14 | +15% | |||
12 | ||||
10 | ||||
8 | ||||
6 | 10.5 | 11.0 | 11.5 | 12.0 |
4 | ||||
2 | ||||
0 | ||||
2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 |
Unit margin
Share of premium fuels increased from 5% to 8.5% in the last 4 years
Stronger marketing activities to boost premium fuels to 10%+ in the coming years
38
Note: numbers are in USD mn (with 2018 constant FX base)
SIGNIFICANT UPSIDE REMAINS IN NON-FUEL MARGIN
NON-FUEL MARGIN CONTRIBUTION TO RISE CLOSE TO 35% BY 2023
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
NON-FUEL SALES (MN USD)
+39%
990 | 1,098 | 1,238 | |
890 | |||
2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 |
NON-FUEL MARGIN (MN USD)
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
FRESH CORNER ROLLOUT (SITES)
1,250
687 | 877 | |||||||
447 | ||||||||
248 | ||||||||
23 | ||||||||
2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | … | 2021 |
NON-FUEL MARGIN CONTRIBUTION
300
200
100
0
+82%
249
160194
290
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
~35%
22% 24% 25% 27% 29%
2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 |
2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | … | 2023 |
39
Note: numbers are in USD mn (with 2018 constant FX base)
STRENGTHENING CONTROL OVER THE SUPPLY CHAIN
BUILDING UP OWN LOGISTICS AND FOCUSING ON ACTIVE SUPPLIER MANAGEMENT
RESULTS OF LOGISTICS OPERATIONS
3.5 | 94.6% | 97.7% | |||
3.0 | 74.5% | ||||
2.5 | 1.94 | ||||
2.0 | 1.36 | 1.40 | |||
1.5 | |||||
1.0 | 23.1% | 13.4% | 12.8% | ||
0.5 | |||||
0.0 | |||||
2018 Mar. | 2018 Dec. | 2019 | |||
Logistics costs in % of COGS - right axis
Service level - right axis1
Shipped item in mn pcs - left axis
SUPPLIER CONTRIBUTION OF NON-FUEL MARGIN (%)
100 | 20 | Ambition: to close gap until | |||
20% (FMCG retailer | |||||
80 | 15 | benchmark) in next years | |||
60 | |||||
40 | 10 | 20% | |||
20 | |||||
0 | 5 | 11% | |||
0 | |||||
2019 | … | 2023 Target | |||
Backward logistics integration: targeted 95+% service level achieved in 1.5 years and logistics costs declined (from 23% of COGS to 13%)
Similar results targeted on other operating markets as well
Pilot logistics facility established in Hungary, where MOL is the owner of shop goods
Managing suppliers with more active negotiations to reach retailer benchmark
Asking for higher price for valuable display, fridge and other promotion offers for suppliers
Grow sales and supplier engagement by utilizing new marketing tools such as digital signage
40
1. Service level: difference between ordered and received goods in shop
COFFEE IS THE BIGGEST CONTRIBUTOR TO NON-FUEL MARGIN GROWTH
COFFEE HELPS TO BUILD THE FRESH CORNER BRAND AND EXPERIENCE IN DEVELOPING GASTRO OFFERS
SHARE OF COFFEE OF TOTAL CONSUMER GOODS
MARGIN (%)
20 | ||||
15 | ||||
10 | 17.2 | 18.7 | ||
14.6 | ||||
5 | ||||
0 | ||||
2017 | 2018 | 2019 |
Significant upside remains
Promoting own coffee brand under the Fresh Corner umbrella
COFFEES SOLD/SITE IN TOP5 MARKETS
'000 cups/site/year
+18% | |||||
51 | |||||
CZ | 37 | 44 | |||
2017 | 2018 | 2019 | |||
+14% | |||||
SK | 28 | 32 | 37 | ||
+16% | |||||
RO | 27 | 32 | 37 | ||
Reducing the gap between top-seller and laggard countries
Increasing coffee consumption in CEE
Continued roll-out of Fresh Corner network
+4%
HU | 25 | 26 | ||||||
23 | ||||||||
+16% | ||||||||
HR1 | ||||||||
10 | 11 | 13 | ||||||
41
1. INA and Tifon brands
WHAT WILL BE THE NEXT COFFEE?
COFFEE WITH ~30% SALES CAGR; FURTHER POTENTIAL IN GROCERY AND NON-COFFEE GASTRO
2019 NON-FUEL SALES AND MARGIN BREAKDOWN (%)
2017-2019 SALES CAGR OF GROCERY AND GASTRO (USD MN)
100% | 100% | ||||||||||
16% | |||||||||||
31% | |||||||||||
6% | |||||||||||
5% | |||||||||||
19% | |||||||||||
36% | |||||||||||
10% | |||||||||||
6% | 18% | ||||||||||
1% | |||||||||||
9% | |||||||||||
29% | |||||||||||
6% | |||||||||||
6% | |||||||||||
2% | |||||||||||
0% | |||||||||||
Non-fuel sales | Non-fuel margin |
Grocery Gastro coffee
Gastro non-coffee Nonfood
Forecourt
Car wash
Services
Other
Grocery
+12%
161 | 181 | 202 |
2017 | 2018 | 2019 |
Gastro Coffee
+31%
58 | 74 | |
43 | ||
2017 | 2018 | 2019 |
Gastro non-Coffee | ||
+24% | ||
51 | 63 | |
41 | ||
2017 | 2018 | 2019 |
42
GRADUAL BUILD-UP OF MOBILITY SERVICES GOES ACCORDING TO PLAN
Alternative fuels
(EV charging)
Strategic aims are to develop only high performing infrastructure and be the leading provider by 2030
Status
Close to 200 chargers in operation in the group
Fleet management | Car sharing | |
Build capabilities | Connect MOL | |
to manage the | brand and | |
future connected | shared cars in | |
car ecosystem | customers' | |
(purchasing, | minds (building | |
financing and | on MOL brand | |
operating | reputation) | |
vehicles, etc.) | ||
Status | Status | |
Managed fleet of | Operation in | |
close to 4,000 | Budapest with | |
cars (50%+ are | ~450 cars and | |
external) | increased EV | |
fleet | ||
Public transport
Develop capabilities and test new business models in public transport and vehicle manufacturing
Status
Operation of bus fleets in several cities and scaled- up manufacturing
Future plans
Exploring additional opportunities in CEE mobility
Aiming profitability of existing businesses
Continue investments in new capabilities
43
EARLY BENEFIT FROM ADVANCED ANALYTICS IN HUNGARY
IMPLEMENTATION ON OTHER MARKETS IS IN PROGRESS
Workforce
Efficiency
Optimizing human
resource need at service
stations: 300 kUSD1
Staff utilization is assessed on service station-level by machine- learning algorithm
As a result, staff level can be increased to drive up sales or decreased to drive down cost
Grocery Pricing
Optimization
Improving grocery
margin through location- based pricing : 400 kUSD1
Margin maximizing price adjustments for grocery products on service station level based on price elasticity
Price changes both up and down depending on service station and product
Digital Signage
Measurement
Margin increase through product display on Digital Signage: 100 kUSD1
Early tests show that displaying products on Digital Signage increases sales by ~25% on average
Additional benefits result from using screen time for suppliers' advertisements
SeS ID
44
1. Annual benefit in Hungary
EXPLORATION AND PRODUCTION
PRODUCTION IN 9 COUNTRIES
CEE TOTAL
Croatia, Hungary
Reserves: 159.6 MMboe
Production: 64.6 mboepd
o/w CEE offshore
Reserves: 8.2 MMboe
Production: 5.1 mboepd
UK, NORTH SEA
Reserves: 24.6 MMboe
Production: 19.2 mboepd
NO
RUSSIA
UK
KAZAKHSTAN
AZERBAIJAN
IRAQ
HU | PAKISTAN |
EGYPT
HRRO
OMAN
EXPLORATION
PRODUCTION ANGOLA
AZERBAIJAN
Production: 8.2 mboepd
RUSSIA
Reserves: 26.2 MMboe
Production: 4.5 mboepd
KAZAKHSTAN
Reserves: 23.5 MMboe
PAKISTAN
Reserves: 14.5 MMboe
Production: 7.0 mboepd
OTHER INTERNATIONAL
Egypt, Angola, Kurdistan Region of Iraq
Reserves: 21.6 MMboe
Production: 10.5 mboepd
PRODUCTION BY COUNTRIES AND PRODUCTS | RESERVES BREAKDOWN BY COUNTRIES AND |
(MBOEPD; H1 2020) | PRODUCTS (MMBOE; YE 2019) |
15% | |
32% | |
17% | 114 |
11% | |
25% |
7% | ||
41% | 114 | 51% |
22% | 21% |
9% | 270 |
10% | 38% |
8% | ||
40% | 270 | 52% |
Hungary | WEU (North Sea) | Oil | Hungary | WEU (North Sea) |
Croatia | MEA & Africa | Gas | Croatia | MEA & Africa |
CIS | Condensate | CIS |
Notes: Group production figures include consolidated assets, JVs (Baitex in Russia, 4.5 mboepd) and associates (Pearl in the KRI, 4.3 mboepd). Azerbaijan H1 production figure represents contribution from 16 April 2020. 2019YE reserves figures exclude Azerbaijan.
Oil Gas Condensate
46
PRODUCTION GUIDANCE AT 115-120 MBOEPD FOR 2020
PRODUCTION (MBOEPD)
107 | 111 | 111 | 114 | 115-120 |
2017A | 2018A | 2019A | 2020H1 | 2020F |
UNIT DIRECT PRODUCTION COST (USD/BOE) | ||||
6.2 | 6.3 | 6.4 | 6.0 |
E&P International CEE
COMMENT
2020 H1: Lower production in Pakistan due to limited refinery offtake and also in the UK (Catcher outage), offset by ACG contribution from April
ACG adds to production around 20 mboepd or more as entitlement production share is to increase in low oil price environment (PSA regime)
COMMENT
2020 H1: unit production cost decreased to a very competitive USD 6.0/boe level, aided by the favourable effect of low unit cost ACG barrels
2017 | 2018 | 2019 | H1 2020 |
CAPEX (USD MN)
389
343340
156
2017 | 2018 | 2019 | H1 2020 |
COMMENT
Strong capex scrutiny across the portfolio
Planned CAPEX spending in 2020 reduced by USD ~100 mn (without ACG)
47
KEY PROJECTS IN 2020-23: CAPEX ADJUSTED TO THE "NEW NORMAL"
CEE
HUNGARY
Shallow gas exploration
Production optimization
CROATIA
Offshore development campaign
Onshore exploration
Production optimization
NORTH SEA EXPLORATION
INTERNATIONAL
PAKISTAN: Maintain and extend production plateau, exploration drillings
UK: Catcher near-field development, Scott in-fill wells
KURDISTAN: Shaikan field development project suspended by the Operator until circumstances turn more favourable
KAZAKHSTAN: Rozhkovsky Trial Production Project
ACG
NORWAY
Oil and gas discovery announced on PL820 operated license, appraisal plans under discussion with partners
One more committed operated drilling, further operated and non-operated options in the pipeline
AZERBAIJAN
Significant 2P reserve addition in 2020 and ~20 mboepd (net) increase in Group production
Next stage of ACG development commenced in 2019; new offshore platform and facilities designed to process up to additional 100 mboepd (gross)
48
SUCCESSFUL CLOSURE OF THE ACG TRANSACTION
DEAL SUMMARY
USD 1.5bn transaction value includes Chevron's 9.57% interest in ACG, 8.9% in the BTC pipeline and related midstream assets
A major step towards the 2030 strategic target of transforming MOL E&P into an international platform; it adds exposure to the key Russia/CIS region
The deal is immediately EBITDA and EPS accretive
ASSET HIGHLIGHTS
Portfolio consists of a stake in the ACG oil field, a super-giant offshore field in Azerbaijan, with 535 mboepd gross production in 2019
ACG is operated by BP (30.37% stake) and state-owned SOCAR has a 25% stake; MOL is the third largest partner
Export to international markets is secured through ownership in the Sangachal processing plant and in pipeline assets to the Mediterranean and Black Seas (BTC and WREP pipelines)
Pro-forma group production would increase by around 20 mboepd (net)
MOL's total 2P reserves are estimated to increase to ~360-380 mmboe by
the end of 2020
First oil | 1997 |
PSA contract expiry | 2049 |
Gross production1 (2019) | 535 mboepd |
Chevron net entitlement | 18 mboepd |
production1 (2019) | |
Gross recoverable resources1 | ~3,000 MMBoe |
(2018) | |
49
Notes: (1) Based on public sources (the websites of the project partners)
PSA REGIME/PROFILE
Investing
companies
OPEX
Recovery
CAPEX
Recovery
ACG PSA SCHEME
Government
Signature
Bonus
Gross Production
Limit of 100% of revenues per quarter
Limit of 50% of revenues net of OPEX recovery per quarter, rolled over to next quarter if not recovered
Profit Oil
HIGHLIGHTS
Original PSA signed in 1994
Latest amendment in 2017 with the expiry date of 2049
ACG shareholders have access to own entitlement production
Cost Oil | Contractor | Government |
(25%) | Share (75%) | |
25% Income Tax, unlimited tax loss carry forward 1
Entitlement production
50
Notes: (1) Income tax is charged on P&L-basedpre-tax profit Based on public sources (website of the project operator)
POSITIVE UNIT CASH FLOW DESPITE DEPRESSED OIL AND GAS PRICES
PRICE REALIZATION, EBITDA, SIMPLIFIED FCF1 (USD/BOE)
71
64
52 | 54 |
44 | ||||||
40 | Brent price | |||||
Realized HC price | ||||||
24 | Unit EBITDA | |||||
18 | ||||||
15 | 8 | Unit Simplified FCF | ||||
1 | 7 | |||||
2015A | 2016A | 2017A | 2018A | 2019A | 2020H1 | |
87 | 260 | 548 | 992 | 715 | 163 | SFCF (USD mn) |
Notes: Simplified free cash flow = EBITDA less Organic CAPEX; Norway tax refund effect excluded; Entitlement production basis ; figures include | 51 |
equity assets and ACG/BTC contribution from 16th April 2020. |
2020 E&P PORTFOLIO BREAKEVEN REDUCED TO USD 25/BBL
2020 E&P PORTFOLIO CASH BREAKEVEN OIL PRICE (USD/BBL)
-5
~30 | ||||
~25 | ||||
Original Portfolio | CAPEX | Project OPEX | OPEX | New Portfolio |
breakeven | breakeven |
Effect of cost reduction measures
KEY MESSAGES
Comprehensive set of measures put in place to adjust our operating and capital expenditure
Portfolio break-even reduced by USD ~5/bbl to USD ~25/bbl oil price in 2020
52
FINANCIALS, GOVERNANCE AND OTHERS
GENERATING POSITIVE SIMPLIFIED FCF AMIDST THE CRISIS
NEW EBITDA TARGET FOR 2020 IMPLIES SUSTAINED SIMPLIFIED FCF GENERATION
RESILIENT
INTEGRATED
BUSINESS
MODEL
FINANCIAL DISCIPLINE
SYSTEMATIC
SAFETY & EFFICIENCY
HIGH-QUALITY
LOW-COST
ASSET BASE
MOL 2030: BUILD ON EXISTING STRENGTHS
GROUP CLEAN
CCS EBITDA
GROUP CAPEX
(ORGANIC)
SIMPLIFIED FCF*
OIL & GAS
PRODUCTION**
NET DEBT/EBITDA
HSE - TRIR***
2019
USD 2.44 BN
USD 2.08 BN
USD 0.36 BN
111 MBOEPD
0.81X
1.43
H1 2020
USD 975 MN
USD 619 MN
USD 356 MN
114 MBOEPD
1.63X
1.02
2020
TARGETS
USD 1.7-1.9 BN
UP TO USD 1.5 BN
USD 0.2-0.4BN
115-120 MBOEPD
<2.0X
<1.4
- Clean CCS EBITDA less Organic capex
** | Including JVs and associates | 54 |
*** | Total Recordable Injury Rate |
ROBUST EBITDA GENERATION
COVID-19, ECONOMIC CRISIS TO AFFECT 2020 EBITDA
CLEAN CCS EBITDA (USD BN) | |||||||
2.7 | |||||||
2.5 | 2.4 | ||||||
2.2 | |||||||
0.7 | 0.9 | 1.3 | |||||
0.7 | |||||||
1.4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.0 | ||||
0.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | ||||
0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | ||||
-0.1 | |||||||
-0.2 | -0.2 | -0.2 | |||||
2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | ||||
US | DS | CS | GM | C&O (incl. intersegment) | |||
2.4
1.1
1.7-1.9
0.9 | |
Q2 | 0.4 |
0.5 | 0.6 |
Q1 | |
0.2 | |
-0.1 | |
2019 | H1 2020 |
55
"SUSTAIN" CAPEX AT AROUND USD 1.0-1.3BN
COVID/ECONOMIC CRISIS WILL SEE MORE CAPEX SCRUTINY AND DELAY; ACG WILL ADD TO SUSTAIN CAPEX
SUSTAIN CAPEX (USD BN) | ||||||
1.3 | 1.3 | |||||
1.1 | 0.4 | |||||
1.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | ||||
0.7 | ||||||
0.3 | ||||||
0.4 | ||||||
0.4 | 0.6 | |||||
0.4 | 0.4 | |||||
0.4 | ||||||
0.4 | ||||||
0.2 | Q2 | |||||
0.2 | 0.2 | |||||
0.1 | 0.1 | |||||
0.1 | Q1 | 0.2 | ||||
2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | H1 2020 |
Organic US Organic DS Organic CS Organic GM Organic C&O (incl. intersegment)
56
USD 3BN+ DOWNSTREAM STRATEGIC CAPEX PLANNED FOR 2019-23
COVID-19 MAY AFFECT TIMING OF THE STRATEGIC PROJECTS
STRATEGIC/TRANSFORMATIONAL CAPEX (USD BN) | |||||
0.78 | 0.75 (?) | ||||
0.09 | Other strategic (DS2022) | ||||
0.60 (?) | Polyol (DS2022) | ||||
0.50 (?) | 0.50 (?) | ||||
0.69 | |||||
0.17 | 0.50 | 0.50 | |||
0.14 | Q2 | ||||
0.07 | |||||
0.10 | 0.13 | Q1 | |||
2018 | 2019 | 2020E | 2021E | 2022E | 2023E |
Key strategic projects (e.g. polyol, delayed coker, propylene splitter, alternative crude processing etc) are ongoing and are not affected by the 2020 capex revision
COVID-19-related logistics and supply chain issues may, however, result in unintended delays to strategic projects as well
57
ROBUST SIMPLIFIED FREE CASH FLOW IN 2015-2019
TRANSFORMATIONAL CAPEX REDUCES FCF FROM 2019
SIMPLIFIED FCF (USD BN) | |||||||
1.4 | 1.4 | ||||||
1.2 | 1.2 | ||||||
0.2 | 0.5 | ||||||
1.0 | 0.4 | ||||||
1.0 | 0.8 | 0.7 | |||||
0.5 | 0.7 | ||||||
0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | |||||
0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | Q2 | 0.04 |
0.3 | |||||||
0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | Q1 | |
-0.5 |
2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | H1 2020 |
Upstream Downstream Consumer Services Gas Midstream C&O (incl. intersegment)
58
(1) Simplified Free Cash Flow = Clean CCS EBITDA - Organic CAPEX
2020 DIVIDEND PAYMENT TO BE REVISITED LATER
STEADILY RISING BASE DPS IN 2014-19, COMPLEMENTED BY SPECIAL DIVIDEND IN 2018 AND 2019
DIVIDEND PER SHARE1 (HUF) | ||||||||
2.5% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.9% | |
+1% | +2% | +1.5% | +1.5% | |||||
Special dividend | 48 | |||||||
Regular dividend | BASE DPS: +10% | 43 | ||||||
CAGR IN 2014-19 | ||||||||
16 | ||||||||
85 | 95 | |||||||
71 | 78 | |||||||
57 | 58 | 58 | 61 | |||||
0 | ||||||||
2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 |
Cash dividend is the primary distribution channel to shareholders
Target is to increase base dividend per share in next 4-5 years under normalized conditions
AGM decided not to pay 2020 dividend due to the pandemic; Board to revisit decision once the situation normalizes
Special dividend is a tool to share excess free cash flow with shareholders when balance sheet, CAPEX plans allow it
Annual review of the status and the potential use of treasury shares to continue
(1) | Restated to reflect post share split values; | 59 |
(2) | Calculated with publication date (AGM) share prices | |
Disclaimer: dividend decisions are made by the AGMs, based on the proposal of the Board of Directors, or the shareholders, reflecting the prevailing business conditions
SOURCES AND APPLICATIONS OF CASH
SOURCES AND APPLICATIONS OF CASH, 2012-19 (USD MN)1 | ||||||||||
180 | ||||||||||
-613 | 348 | 78 | ||||||||
716 | ||||||||||
546 | 115 | |||||||||
557 | ||||||||||
162 | ||||||||||
354 | ||||||||||
738 | ||||||||||
579 | ||||||||||
402 | ||||||||||
205 | ||||||||||
270 | 196 | 383 | ||||||||
164 | 202 | |||||||||
575 | 473 | 350 | 261 | |||||||
302 | ||||||||||
427 | 2 687 | |||||||||
2 524 | 2 477 | 37 | ||||||||
2 447 | 2 435 | |||||||||
322 | ||||||||||
164 | 2 308 | |||||||||
2 183 | 2 153 | 111 | ||||||||
2 079 | ||||||||||
1 689 | ||||||||||
1 034 | 1 211 | 1 258 | 1 011 | 1 037 | 1 290 | |||||
2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 |
Clean CCS EBITDA | Organic CAPEX | Inorganic CAPEX | Interests & Taxes | Dividend | (De)leveraging & Other |
EBITDA/CAPEX gap should cover taxes, cost of funding, dividends and small-size M&A...
...and would also contribute to funding the upcoming transformational projects
60
(1) Dividends refer to the year when they were earned, rather than when they were paid out
BALANCE SHEET REMAINS ROBUST POST-ACG COMPLETION
NET DEBT TO EBITDA (X) | MOL 2030 | |||||||||
2.5 | ACG transaction lifted leverage upon completion to | |||||||||
around 1.6x, still well within our comfort zone | ||||||||||
2.0 | 1.6 | ACG is immediately EBITDA accretive, hence will | ||||||||
contribute to bringing down leverage from day 1 | ||||||||||
1.5 | ||||||||||
Credit metrics shall remain commensurate with | ||||||||||
1.0 | investment grade credit rating | |||||||||
1.0 | 0.8 | 0.9 | ||||||||
ACG was funded from available liquidity and the | ||||||||||
0.6 | ||||||||||
0.5 | 0.4 | transaction required no material adjustment in our | ||||||||
funding strategy | ||||||||||
2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | Q1 2020 | H1 2020 |
61
AMPLE FINANCIAL HEADROOM
FROM DIVERSIFIED FUNDING SOURCES
AVERAGE MATURITY OF 3.5 YEARS
Reported cash & cash equivalents | Medium term loan | Undrawn facilities | |
Senior Unsecured Bonds | Long term loan (multilaterals) | ||
USD mn
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
586 | 735 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
32 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
1,161 | 88 | 1,548 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
9 | 840 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
561 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
89 | 22 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
26 | 9 | 43 | 18 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
Reported cash&cash | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026+ | |||||||||||||||||||
equivalents | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
MID- AND LONG-TERM COMMITTED FUNDING | DRAWN VERSUS UNDRAWN FACILITIES | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
PORTFOLIO | (30.06.2020) |
Syndicated / club loans undrawn
Syndicated / club loans drawn | 29% |
43% | |
Schuldschein | Senior unsecured bonds |
20% | |
3% | |
Multilateral loans | |
Other bilateral loans | |
1% | |
4% |
FULL INVESTMENT GRADE RATING PRESERVED
EVEN UNDER CURRENT UNPRECEDENTED AND CHALLENGING MARKET CONDITIONS
HISTORICAL FOREIGN LONG TERM RATINGS | FFO ADJUSTED NET LEVERAGE (4Y AVG. 2016-2019) | |||||||
PKN Orlen, BBB- | 0.41 | |||||||
MOL, BBB- | 0.86 | |||||||
Bashneft, BBB | 1.09 | |||||||
OMV, A- | 1.35 | |||||||
Total, AA- | 1.60 | |||||||
Tupras, BB-* | 2.14 | |||||||
Repsol, BBB | 2.14 | |||||||
ENI, A-* | 2.42 | |||||||
0.0 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 3.0 | ||
Source:www.fitchratings.com | ||||||||
*FY2019 figures not included in average |
Standard & Poor's confirmed BBB- investment grade rating, with revised outlook (from positive to stable) in March 2020
BBB- (stable outlook) affirmed by Fitch Ratings in June 2020
MOL's strong financials are visible even among better-rated peers and kept stable even under harsh downturn following the oil price collapse and coronavirus outbreak in the first months of 2020
63
Note: S&P has been rating MOL since 2005, Fitch since 2010
MOL 2030 WORKS WITH OR WITHOUT INA
FOCUS ON SECURING RETURN ON INVESTMENT
REALITIES AND PRIORITIES | STRONG REGIONAL ASSET BASE |
MOL 2030 strategy can be and will be executed with or without INA
Good geographical fit and untapped efficiency upside in downstream
Low-cost E&P in Croatia* (both onshore and off-shore)
Coastal refinery (Rijeka)
Construction of Rijeka Delayed Coker | Extensive retail network |
Conversion of Sisak site to various industrial activities | SLOVENIA: 6 |
SERVICE STATIONS | |
CROATIA: 386 | |
Yet, the relative importance of INA has declined within | SERVICE STATIONS |
MOL Group | RIJEKA |
SISAK |
Priority: to maximise the value of MOL's investment in INA:
Keeping/operating INA on market-based terms and with a MOL-controlling position or
Selling/monetizing the investment
Legal proceedings continue; first arbitration in favour of MOL (all Croatian claims rejected)
BOSNIA: 107
SERVICE STATIONS
MONTENEGRO
11 SERVICE
STATION
REFINERY PIPELINE
OIL/GAS FIELD
More information on the history of MOL & INA
64
*E&P activities primarily within Croatia, with international activities in Angola/Egypt (activities in Syria are currently suspended due to force
majeure proclaimed in Feb 2012)
THE HISTORY OF INA & MOL, 2003-2019
SHAREHOLDER | AGREEMENTS |
STORYLINE | |||
1ST SHAREHOLDER RIGHTS AGREEMENT (SHA): | MOL AND THE GOVT OF CROATIA SIGN THE GAS | ||
MOL ALLOWED TO NOMINATE TWO MEMBERS | 1ST AMENDMENT | MASTER AGREEMENT (GMA) AND AN | |
TO THE SUPERVISORY BOARD, THE CFO AND A | AMENDMENT TO THE FIRST SHAREHOLDERS | ||
VP TO THE MANAGEMENT BOARD | AGREEMENT (FASHA) BY WHICH MOL GAINS | ||
FULL MANAGEMENT CONTROL ON INA. | |||
UNDER THE FASHA, MOL DELEGATES FIVE OUT OF NINE MEMBERS TO THE SUPERVISORY BOARD AND THREE OUT OF SIX MEMBERS TO THE MANAGEMENT BOARD, INCLUDING THE PRESIDENT (WITH THE TIE-BREAKING VOTE).
OWNERSHIP
LEGAL PROCEEDINGS
RULLINGS
MOL ACQUIRES A 25% STAKE | MOL GROUP INCREASES | MOL GROUP ACQUIRES AN | MOL GROUP HOLDS 49.1% | ||||||||||||||
IN INA PLUS 1 SHARE | STAKE IN INA TO 47.1% | ADDITIONAL 2% STAKE IN INA | |||||||||||||||
IN INA AS DECEMBER 2018 | |||||||||||||||||
(USD 505 MN) | (USD 1.18 BN) | (USD 131 MN) | |||||||||||||||
(USD 1.8 BN) | |||||||||||||||||
2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 |
CROATIA BEGINS INVESTIGATION OF EX-PM IVO SANADER FOR ALLEGEDLY BEING OFFERED A €10MN BRIBE BY MOL FOR SECURING | CROATIA ISSUES EUROPEAN | AFTER THE CROATIAN CONSTITUTIONAL COURT | THE ZAGREB COUNTY COURT FOUND | ||||||||||||||
MANAGEMENT RIGHTS IN INA. THE INVESTIGATION ALSO TARGETS MOL CHARIMAN/CEO. | ARREST WARRANT (EAW) FOR | QUASHED THE 1ST AND 2ND INSTANCE | MOL CHAIRMAN ZSOLT HERNADI | ||||||||||||||
MOL CHAIRMAN/CEO. | CONVICTION OF EX-PM SANADER IN 2015, ON- | GUILTY OF BRIBING FORMER | |||||||||||||||
CROATIA REQUESTS | GOING RETRIAL AGAINST MR. SANADER AND | CROATIAN PRIME MINISTER | |||||||||||||||
INTERPOL TO PLACE A RED | HERNÁDI (FOR ALLEGED BRIBE FOR SECURING | IVO SANADER TO ALLOW | |||||||||||||||
HUNGARIAN PROSECUTION LAUNCHES INVESTIGATION ON SUSPICION OF BRIBERY IN CONNECTION WITH FASHA | NOTICE FOR THE ARREST OF | MOL'S MANAGEMENT RIGHTS IN INA) FOLLOWING | MOL TO TAKE CONTROL OF INA. | ||||||||||||||
MOL CHAIR/CEO. INTERPOL | SEVERAL SUSPENSIONS OVER THE PAST FEW | ||||||||||||||||
ACCEPTS. | YEARS DUE TO PROCEDURAL REASONS. | ||||||||||||||||
MOL FILES A REQUEST FOR ARBITRATION WITH THE INTERNATIONAL CENTRE FOR SETTLEMENT OF INVESTMENT DISPUTES TO START ARBITRATION | ZAGREB COURT OVERTURNS THE | ||||||||||||||||
PROCEEDINGS VS THE GOVT OF CROATIA FOR BREACHING CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS UNDER THE FASHA/GMA. NO RULING AS OF 30.04.2018 | CROATIA GOVT LAUNCHES ARBITRATION UNDER UNCITRAL RULES | ||||||||||||||||
DETENTION ORDER AGAINST ZSOLT | |||||||||||||||||
SEEKING NULLIFICATION OF THE 2009 FASHA/GMA, CLAIMING | |||||||||||||||||
HERNADI WHICH COULD RESULT IN | |||||||||||||||||
THAT MOL UNLAWFULLY OBTAINED MANAGEMENT RIGHTS | |||||||||||||||||
THE CANCELLATION OF THE | |||||||||||||||||
EUROPEAN ARREST WARRANT AND | |||||||||||||||||
THE REMOVAL OF HIS NAME FROM | |||||||||||||||||
CROATIAN REGULAR (1st and 2nd inst.) COURTS FIND THE EX. PM GUILTY OF ACCEPTING THE ALLEDGED BRIBE | THE INTERPOL WANTED LIST. | ||||||||||||||||
A BUDAPEST COURT REJECTS CROATIA'S REQUEST FOR EXTRADITION OF MOL CHAIRMAN/CEO | INTERPOL CANCELS RED NOTICE | ||||||||||||||||
BUT EAW STILL STANDS | |||||||||||||||||
UNCITRAL REJECTS ALL OF CROATIA'S CLAIMS | |||||||||||||||||
AIMING AT NULLIFYING THE 2009 FASHA/GMA. | |||||||||||||||||
THE CONSTITUTIONAL COURT OF CROATIA REVOKES TWO PREVIOUS LOWER INSTANCE RULLINGS AND ORDERED FOR RETRIAL | ALLEGATIONS OF BRIBERY, BREACHING THE 2003 | ||||||||||||||||
AUSTRIA AND GERMANY | SHA AND NOT ACTING WITHIN CROATIAN | ||||||||||||||||
COMPANY LAW ARE ALL DISMISSED. SWISS | |||||||||||||||||
HUNGARIAN PROSECUTION DECLARES THAT THE CRIMINAL ACCUSTATION RAISED | SUSPEND EAW ON MOL | ||||||||||||||||
SUPREME COURT CONFIRMS RULING. | |||||||||||||||||
CHAIRMAN/CEO | |||||||||||||||||
BY CROATIA ON SUSPICION OF BRIBERY IS UNFOUNDED. INVESTIGATION ENDS. | MOL IS CLEARED. | ||||||||||||||||
2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | |
CROATIAN BRIBERY INVESTIGATION INTO EX CROATIA PM AND MOL CHAIRMAN/CEO | HUNGARIAN BRIBERY INVESTIGATION INTO MOL CHAIRMAN/CEO | ARREST WARRANT FOR MOL CHAIRMAN/CEO | ICSID ARBITRATION | UNCITRAL ARBITRATION | 65 |
MOL-CROATIA ARBITRATION STATUS
UNCITRAL ARBITRATION | ICSID ARBITRATION | |
(CROATIA VS. MOL) | (MOL VS. CROATIA) | |
INITIATED | GOVERNMENT OF CROATIA | MOL |
BY | ||
WHEN | 17 JANUARY 2014 | 26 NOVEMBER 2013 |
PCA (PERMANENT COURT OF ARBITRATION), GENEVA | ICSID (INTERNATIONAL SETTLEMENT OF INVESTMENT | |
FORUM | UNDER UNCITRAL (UNITED NATIONS COMMISSION ON | |
DISPUTES), WASHINGTON | ||
INTERNATIONAL TRADE LAW) RULES | ||
THE | THE MAIN ALLEGATION OF THE GoC2 WAS THAT | |
CLAIM | CHAIRMAN OF MOL HAD BRIBED CRO'S FORMER PM DR. | REMEDY FOR SUBSTIANTIAL LOSSES INA SUFFERED IN |
IVO SANADER TO GAIN MANAGEMENT CONTROL OVER | THE GAS BUSINESS AS A CONSEQUENCE OF THE BREACH | |
OF THE 2009 AGREEMENTS1 BY THE GoC2. THE | ||
INA THROUGH AMENDING THE 2003 SHAREHOLDERS | ||
AGREEMENT AND SIGNING AN OTHER AGREEMENT | PROCEEDING IS ALSO ABOUT ABUSE OF REGULATORY | |
RELATING TO INA'S GAS BUSINESS IN 2009. THEREFORE | POWER AT THE EXPENSE OF A SINGLE ACTOR, INA, AND | |
IT REQUESTED NULIFICATION OF THESE AGREEMENTS | INDIRECTLY, MOL. | |
ON VARIOUS BASIS. | ||
STATUS | FINAL AWARD (IN MOL'S FAVOUR) | ONGOING |
ON 23 DECEMBER 2016, THE UNCITRAL TRIBUNAL | ||
REJECTED ALL OF CROATIA'S CLAIMS BASED ON | ||
BRIBERY, CORPORATE GOVERNANCE AND MOL'S | ||
ALLEGED BREACHES OF THE 2003 SHAREHOLDERS | ||
AGREEMENT. |
(1) | 2009 Agreements refers to FASHA (First Amendment to the Shareholders Agreement), GMA (Gas Master Agreement) and FAGMA (First | 66 |
Amendment to the Gas Master Agreement) | ||
(2) | The Government of Croatia |
SHAREHOLDER STRUCTURE1
Commerzbank AG Treasury shares
UniCredit Bank AG | 6.4% | |
ING Bank N.V. | 3.4% | 1.3% |
4.8% | Foreign investors (mainly institutional) | |
29.7% | ||
OTP Bank Plc. | 4.9% | |
OmanOil (Budapest) Limited 7.1% | ||
Tihany Foundation | 10.0% | 9.3% |
Domestic institutional | ||
10.0% | 6.6% |
Maecenas Corvini Foundation25.2% 1.3%Domestic private investors
Hungarian State (MNV Zrt.) OTP Fund Management
Free-float
46.3%
67
- Shareholders structure as of 30 June, 2020
- Voting rights controlled by the Hungarian State
TWO KEY COMMODITY DRIVERS NOSEDIVED IN Q2, ONE HELD UP
RESILIENT INTEGRATED BUSINESS MODEL FAILS TO WORK FULLY UNDER EXTREME MARKET STRESS
EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT* VS MOL CLEAN CCS EBITDA (USD MN)
100% | 800 | ||
85% | |||
600 | |||
70% | |||
55% | 400 | ||
40% | |||
200 | |||
25% | |||
10% | 0 | ||
Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 13 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 Q4 19 Q1 20 Q2 20 | |||
Clean CCS EBITDA (r.s.) | MOL Group Refining Margin | Integrated Petchem Margin | Brent crude |
- The quarterly % values of the Refinery Margin, Petchem Margin and Brent price are measured against their respective maximum values (100%) in the period of Q1 2012 - Q2 2020
100% equals to the following values:
MOL Group Refining Margin: 7.3 USD/bbl; MOL Group Petrochemicals margin: 654 EUR/t; Brent crude: 119 USD/bbl | 68 |
KEY ITEMS OF TAXATION
CORPORATE INCOME TAX (CIT) RATES CUT IN CORE OPERATING COUNTRIES
HUNGARY
CIT tax remains at 9%
Profit based 'Robin Hood' with an implied tax rate of 21%
Only energy related part of the profit affected (~66%), nameplate tax rate is 31%
Only the Hungarian operation of certain companies are affected (i.e: MOL Plc., while gas transmission (FGSZ) or petrochemicals (MOL Petrochemicals) are not subject to the tax)
Gross margin-based Local Trade Tax (2%) and Innovation Fee (0.3%)
CROATIA & SLOVAKIA
CIT rate at 18% in Croatia and 21% in Slovakia
HUF bn | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 |
Local Trade Tax and Innovation Fee | 15 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 16 |
Corporate Income Tax (incl. RH tax) | 23 | 37 | 29 | 24 | 17 |
Total cash taxes | 38 | 51 | 44 | 40 | 33 |
69
GHG: DOWNSTREAM AND FUEL SALES BIGGEST GHG CONTRIBUTORS
SCOPE 2 IS MINIMAL
TOTAL GHG EMISSIONS SCOPE 1
Downstream accounts for 90% of MOL's own GHG emissions
Around 90% of all Scope 1 falls under ETS
Scope 2 emissions are typically around 1 million tonnes pa.
1%
12%
1% | ||
14% | 6.8mn | |
tonnes | 52% |
20%
Refining | Power and heat generation | Upstream |
Petrochemicals | Other DS | Others |
DOWNSTREAM |
TOTAL GHG EMISSIONS SCOPE 3
Use of sold products, incl. refinery products (diesel, gasoline) and natural gas accounts for 95% of all Scope 3 emissions
Purchased goods include purchased crude oil and bio-fuel
7.8% 3.4%
0.7%
0.3%
59.3mn tonnes
87.8% | |
Purchased goods and services | End-of-life treatment of sold products |
Use of sold products - Refinery excl. Naphta | Upstream JVs |
Use of sold products - Natural gas | 70 |
MOL SCENARIO ANALYSIS: GHG TO DECREASE
2030 STRATEGY PUTS MOL GHG ON THE RIGHT TRACK
IN COOPERATION WITH:
MOL 2030 SCOPE 1,2,3 GHG EMISSIONS (tonnes)
CPS
NPS
SDS
BASIS FOR CALCULATION: decrease of oil related tons of CO2 emissions in transport for the years 2017-30 in each scenario. Reduction factors calculated based on transport related emissions for EU28.
MOL 2030 SCOPE 1,2,3 GHG EMISSIONS (tonnes)
2030 strategy sets MOL's total footprint on right path
Own emissions (Scope 1) to rise with new petrochemical
investments
Reduction in GHG Scope-3 driven by DS transformation "from fuel to chemicals"
Scope 3 emissions to peak due to decline in fuel sales, shift into petrochemicals product portfolio
Strategy addresses low-carbon economy transition risk
Further improvement through sustainability strategy,
energy efficiency, renewable energy, e-mobility
Further steps required, but introducing new actions,
footprint curve gradually to reach/surpass scenarios
71
- Assumptions: Fuel sales peak in 2023. Two polyol size projects with two year gradual ramp-ups, incl. supporting projects. 110 Mbbl Upstream production till 2030; Gradual fall to zero flaring by 2030. Plastic recycling of 75% in line with EU targets. No change in INA status. Zero energy efficiency gains, zero renewable energy generation factored in. No carbon capture/storage. FGSZ (Gas Midstream) excluded. No M&A included. Last Update Q1 2019
ESG: STRONG RATINGS, LEADING IN TRANSPARENCY
TOP POSITIONS ACROSS LEADING ESG1 RESEARCH, RATING AND INDEX HOUSES
ESG INDEXES AND RATINGS
Monitoring of and response to all ESG rating/index houses
Engagement with ESG analysts to ensure understanding of MOL
Consistently strong(er) E&S scores across all players, while somewhat weaker, but improving corporate governance scores
RELATIVE RATING2 VS INDUSTRY PEERS | TOP 10% | TOP 20% |
MOL SCORE | 70 | AA |
ENVIRONMENTAL | 75 | 7.6 |
SOCIAL | 68 | 8.3 |
GOVERNANCE | 694 | 4.7 |
6th lowest risk among 284 global O&G peers (top 2%); and
2nd lowest risk among 45 global integr. O&G peers (top 3%)
ESG REPORTING AND DISCLOSURE
MOL reports using both SASB and GRI Standards
Integrated Reporting combined with Data Library
Data Library contains over 650 ESG data points
Pre-empt, address rising ESG disclosure expectations
Target: leader in industry disclosure practices
MOL # 1 in the Bloomberg ESG Disclosure Score for its sub-industry with a total of 69 points (out of 100)
72
(1) ESG = Environmental, Social and Governance (2) Latest Available Score (3) As of May 7th 2020. (4) DJSI has a separate G (Governance) score but it is called "Economic"
MOL GROUP REFINERY AND PETCHEM MARGINS
MOL GROUP REFINERY MARGIN1 (USD/bbl)
10.0
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0 -1.0-2.0
Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | ||
2014-2019 range | 2019 | 2020 |
IMPLIED YIELDS
8.9% | 5.2% | 8.6% | 5.1% | ||
11.7% | 18.5% | 10.6% | 17.6% | ||
MOL | Complex | ||||
Group | refinery | ||||
refinery | 9.5% | margin | 11.3% | ||
margin | (MOL+SN) | ||||
46.2% | 46.8% | ||||
Gas and chemicals | Naphtha | Black product+VGO | |||
Motor gasoline | Middle distillate | Own consumption and loss |
PETROCHEMICALS MARGIN (EUR/t)2
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200 | |||||||||||||||
Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | ||||
2014-2019 range | 2019 | 2020 |
IMPLIED YIELDS AND FEEDSTOCK
129.5%
100.0% | Naphtha | |||||||||||
Polypropylene | ||||||||||||
Propylene | ||||||||||||
HDPE | 37.3% | |||||||||||
LDPE | 117.5% | |||||||||||
Ethylene | 25.5% | |||||||||||
Benzene | ||||||||||||
Butadiene | 16.0% | |||||||||||
8.3% | ||||||||||||
7.6% | ||||||||||||
5.3% | 12.0% | |||||||||||
Input | ||||||||||||
Output | ||||||||||||
73 |
- Based on weighted Solomon refinery yields, contains cost of purchased energy
- From January 2016 we use MOL Group Petrochemical Margin figures instead of Integrated Petrochemical Margin
RESILIENT, INTEGRATED BUSINESS MODEL STRENGHTENED
NO CHANGE IN MOL'S MID-TERM BASE MACRO FRAMEWORK AND ASSUMPTIONS
KEY MACRO ASSUMPTIONS | EBITDA SENSITIVITY TO KEY EXTERNAL DRIVERS |
2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 YTD | 8Y AVG | |
Brent crude | 44 | 54 | 71 | 64 | 40 | 76 |
(USD/bbl) | ||||||
MOL Group | ||||||
refinery | 5.7 | 6.5 | 5.4 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 4.9 |
margin | ||||||
(USD/bbl) | ||||||
MOL Group | ||||||
petchem | 543 | 504 | 399 | 372 | 394 | 423 |
margin | ||||||
(EUR/t) | ||||||
Sensitivity | Est. Clean CCS EBITDA | |||||
impact (USD mn) | ||||||
+/- 50 USD/Mcm | ~30 | |||||
Gas Price (NCG) | ||||||
+/- 10 USD/bbl | ||||||
~110 | ~40 | |||||
Brent price | ||||||
+/- 50 EUR/t | ||||||
MOL Group | ~80 | |||||
petchem margin | ||||||
+/- 1 USD/bbl | ||||||
MOL Group | ~110 | |||||
refinery margin | ||||||
- of Group EBITDA 2019
1%
4.5%/6%
3%
4.5%
Notes:
The impact of acquisitions
-Sensitivity calculated for 2020; ceteric paribus for current assets assuming full re-pricing of the portfolio; all other premises and volumes remain unchanged
-Gas price sensitivity is the net impact of E&P sensitivity (around USD 50m) and an offsetting Downstream sensitivity; NCG: Largest German trading point for natural gas (operated by NetConnect Germany)
-Crude price sensitivity is the net impact of Upstream sensitivity (including all liquids sensitivity and also the oil price-linked gas production sensitivity) and an offsetting | 74 |
Downstream sensitivity |
TOP MANAGEMENT INCENTIVE SCHEMES
FOR EXECUTIVE MEMBERS**, AROUND 2/3 OF TOTAL REMUNERATION IS VARIABLE AND PERFORMANCE DRIVEN
SHORT-TERM INCENTIVES
Bonus opportunity between 0.85x and 1x of annual base salary, depending on the level
Payout linked to yearly performance based on financial, operational and individual measures, including but not limited to:
Group Level target: Clean CCS EBITDA*, CAPEX utilization, TRIR
Divisional targets: Clean CCS EBITDA, CAPEX utilization, OPEX, TRIR, non-financial targets etc.
LONG-TERM INCENTIVES
Long-term incentive (LTI) scheme consists of two elements: Absolute share value based (previous stock option plan) and Relative market index based (previously Performance Share Plan) plans
LTI payout is linked to long-term share price performance, both nominal and relative
Absolute share value plan: a plan with 2-yearlock-up period in which shares are granted on a past strike price. Any payout being the difference between strike price and actual spot price
Relative index-based plan: measures MOL share price vs regional (CETOP) and industry specific indices (DJ Emerging Market Titans Oil&Gas 30 and MSCI Energy Industry Group Index) over 3 years
Benchmark choice: MOL competes regionally (CEE) for investor flows, as well as with the global emerging market O&G sector
Purpose: Incentivize and reward executives for providing competitive returns to shareholders relative to the regional and global O&G markets
From 2017, target amounts and actual payout for both LTI pillars are based on physical MOL shares in order to further strengthen the alignment between the interest of our shareholders and MOL management.
REMUNERATION MIX
26% | 28% | ||
48% | Chairman | 44% | Group |
CEO | CEO | ||
26% | 28% | ||
35% | Other | 32% |
35% | ||
37% | ExecutiveOther | |
Executives**Board | ||
Members | ||
30% |
Base Salary | Short Term Incentives | Long Term Incentives | 75 | ||
*2019 target for the CEO was set at USD 2.69bn. FY19 Clean CCS EBITDA for the Group reached USD 2,435mn. For 2019, the BoD set the corporate factor at 0.91 for the CEO reflecting external effects and internal impacts.
** We refer to the members of the Management Committee as Executive Members. These newly formed governing bodies together with the Chief Executive Committee took over the role of the formal Executive Board from 1st February 2019.
GAS MIDSTREAM: NON-CYCLICAL CASH FLOW
GAS MIDSTREAM EBITDA (HUF BN, USD MN) | FACTS & FIGURES |
70 | 256 | 250 | 252 | ||||||
60 | |||||||||
213 | 223 | ||||||||
194 | |||||||||
50 | 189 | 187 | |||||||
40 | |||||||||
30 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 116 | ||||
56 | 55 | 50 | 54 | ||||||
20 | |||||||||
36 | |||||||||
10 | |||||||||
0 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | H1 2020 |
HUF bn | USD mn (rhs) |
Domestic natural gas transmission system
300 operator
- Regulated business (asset base and return)
- with continuous regulatory scrutiny
150 Nearly 6,000km pipeline system in Hungary
100 Transit to Serbia, Bosnia-Herzegovina
50 Interconnectors to Croatia, Romania,
0 Slovakia, Ukraine
76
DISCLAIMER
"This presentation and the associated slides and discussion contain forward-looking statements. These statements are naturally subject to uncertainty and changes in circumstances. Those forward-looking statements may include, but are not limited to, those regarding capital employed, capital expenditure, cash flows, costs, savings, debt, demand, depreciation, disposals, dividends, earnings, efficiency, gearing, growth, improvements, investments, margins, performance, prices, production, productivity, profits, reserves, returns, sales, share buy backs, special and exceptional items, strategy, synergies, tax rates, trends, value, volumes, and the effects of MOL merger and acquisition activities. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks, uncertainties and other factors, which could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by these forward- looking statements. These risks, uncertainties and other factors include, but are not limited to developments in government regulations, foreign exchange rates, crude oil and gas prices, crack spreads, political stability, economic growth and the completion of ongoing transactions. Many of these factors are beyond the Company's ability to control or predict. Given these and other uncertainties, you are cautioned not to place undue reliance on any of the forward-looking statements contained herein or otherwise. The Company does not undertake any obligation to release publicly any revisions to these forward-looking statements (which speak only as of the date hereof) to reflect events or circumstances after the date hereof or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events, except as maybe required under applicable securities laws.
Statements and data contained in this presentation and the associated slides and discussions, which relate to the performance of MOL in this and future years, represent plans, targets or projections."
MORE INFO ATwww.molgroup.info | |
CONTACT: | |
Phone: +36 1 464 1395 | |
E-mail: investorrelations@mol.hu | 77 |
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MOL - Magyar Olaj- és Gázipari Rt. published this content on 06 August 2020 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 07 August 2020 08:33:23 UTC