Caltex has indicated that jet fuel may be down -80-90% in the months that travel restrictions are in place.
A six-month reduction in travel might imply a -40-50% reduction in jet fuel for 2020 and on Morgan Stanley's calculations this would approximate a -$40-50m reduction in earnings (EBIT).
All up, the broker envisage risk to the Couche-Tard offer, given the current earnings trajectory.
Target is $34. Industry view is In-Line. Equal-weight.
Target price is $34.00.Current Price is $19.00. Difference: $15.00 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If CTX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
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