National Bank of Greece S A : Global Economy & Markets, Weekly Roundup 28/01/20

Global Markets Roundup

National Bank of Greece | Economic Research Division | January 28, 2020

N A T I O N A L B A N Κ

O F G R E E C E

Risk appetite weakens due to concerns regarding the economic impact of the coronavirus

• In a context of extreme equity positioning following sizeable gains since mid-December, as well as elevated valuations with the MSCI Developed Markets Index P/E at 17.3x (22% above its 15- year average), risk appetite faded sharply in the past 3 trading days. Investor sentiment was hurt due to increasing uncertainty about the impact of the coronavirus and the rising risk that the progressive candidate Bernie Sanders may win in the Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus (February 3rd).
• Indeed, global equities fell by 1% in the past week and euro area indices were down by more than 2% on Monday. At the same time, US 10-Year Treasury yields cumulatively declined by 21 bp to 1.61% on Monday (the lowest since October). Moreover, Speculative Grade corporate bond spreads widened on both sides of the Atlantic by 15-30 bps on a weekly basis, albeit from very low levels.
• Regarding monetary policy, the ECB kept interest rates unchanged (MRO: 0%, DFR:-0.5%), as expected. The bias to ease interest rates was maintained until robust convergence to the inflation objective is achieved. The QE will continue at a monthly pace of €20bn per month of asset purchases for as long as necessary.
• There were some minor positive changes to the introductory statement regarding the assessment of
  (still tilted to the downside) risks to the economic growth outlook, moving from "somewhat less pronounced" three months ago to "less pronounced as some of the uncertainty surrounding international trade is receding". Note that January's PMI revealed a stabilization in activity, albeit at very subdued levels, with the composite PMI at 50.9. Regarding the ECB's view on underlying inflation, it shifted from "a mild increase in line with expectations" to a "moderate increase", probably reflecting the current positive outcomes of core inflation (1.3% yoy as of December, the highest rate since April). Note that January's flash estimate for CPI (January 31st) will be monitored for a better assessment of whether the recent acceleration in core prices is sustained.
• The ECB meeting also began its monetary policy strategy review, which is expected to be concluded by end-year. The review will include: i) a detailed analysis of inflation and its subdued performance in recent years, as well as the quantitative formulation of price stability (a symmetrical numerical target of 2% instead of "below, but close to 2%" or a tolerance bank of inflation around 2%); ii) the monetary policy toolkit (interest rates including the potential side effects of low/negative rates, forward guidance, asset purchases, and yield-curve control); iii) It will examine how the economic and monetary analyses through which the ECB assesses the risks to inflation should be updated; and iv) it will review its communication practices probably including votes (by name) on every rate-setting decision.
• The Federal Reserve is likely to remain unchanged on January 29th, with interest rates at 1.5%-1.75%. It is expected to be a broadly uneventful meeting as there are no economic and interest rates forecasts scheduled to be released, while Fed officials have reiterated their intention to keep interest rates at their current levels for the time being as policy is in a "good place". Investor attention remains on the Fed's liquidity provision to the financial system through T-bill purchases ($200bn since September), which is expected to continue until May 2020 in order to alleviate funding pressures in the repo markets.

Ilias TsirigotakisAC

Head of Global

Markets Research

210-3341517 [e-mail]

Panagiotis Bakalis

210-3341545 [e-mail]

Vasiliki Karagianni

[e-mail]

Table of Contents

Overview_p1

Economics & Markets_p2,3

Outlook_p4

Forecasts_p5

Event Calendar_p6

Markets Monitor_p7

ChartRoom_p8,9

Market Valuation_p10,11

Safe-haven Assets Performance

Gold

Yen

CHF

US Government Bond (7-10Y)

week

106

106

104

104

theof

102

102

Charts

100

100

98

98

96

96

94

8-Aug

23-Jan

94

1-Aug

15-Aug

22-Aug29-Aug5-Sep12-Sep19-Sep26-Sep3-Oct10-Oct17-Oct

24-Oct

31-Oct

7-Nov

14-Nov

21-Nov

28-Nov

5-Dec

12-Dec

19-Dec

26-Dec

2-Jan

9-Jan

16-Jan

30-Jan

Source: NBG Research, Bloomberg, January 2020 = 100

See page 12 for disclosures and analyst certification

Euro Area PMIs

				Manufacturing						Services
62																62
60																60
58																58
56																56
54																54
52																52
50																50
48																48
46																46
44																44
42																42
Nov-11	May-12	Nov-12	May-13	Nov-13	May-14	Nov-14	May-15	Nov-15	May-16	Nov-16	May-17	Nov-17	May-18	Nov-18	May-19	Nov-19

Source: NBG Research, Bloomberg

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NBG Global Markets Roundup | Economics & Markets Section

N A T I O N A L B A N Κ

O F G R E E C E

Euro area PMIs overall remained subdued in January

• Euro area PMIs recorded mixed changes in January, with the downturn in the manufacturing sector easing, while the services PMI deteriorated. Overall, the composite index was unchanged at 50.9 (consensus for a moderate improvement to 51.2), slightly above the expansion/contraction threshold of 50. Manufacturing PMI came out at 47.8, in contractionary territory for a 12th consecutive month, albeit improving compared with November (46.3) and reaching a 9-monthhigh. Moreover, the more forward-lookingindicator of new orders increased by 2.4 pts to 49. Combined with a decline of 1.2 pts for the stock of finished goods component to 47.0, the ratio of new orders to inventory (a leading indicator of the headline index) rose substantially, well above 1, leaving room for optimism that the recent improvement in the headline index could be sustained in the next months. In the services sector, the PMI decreased by 0.6 pts in January, albeit remaining well above the expansion/contraction threshold, at 52.6.

Notably, in both sectors, private corporations' optimism improved,

with respondents' expectations for one year ahead output increasing by 1.9 pts to a 16-month high at the composite level, providing encouragement that a bottoming-out of business confidence could lie ahead. Consumer confidence was stable at -8.1 in January, remaining at a satisfactory level (long- term average of -11.5).

• Regarding performance by country, PMIs in Germany posted a broad-based improvement in January, while the composite PMI modestly deteriorated in France, albeit remaining at a satisfactory level. These readings suggest that PMIs declined moderately in the rest of the euro area on a country- weighted basis (analytical data are due in early-February).In its Eurozone PMI press release, Markit noted that in the rest of the euro area, overall business output stood at a 6½-yearlow, at near-

stagnation levels. In France, the composite PMI was down by 0.5 pts to 51.5 (consensus for an unchanged outcome), due to a decrease in services (-0.7 pts to 51.7). The latter though (as also implied by survey respondents' comments) could, in part, be negatively distorted by strikes during the month, especially in the national railway and thus could prove short-lived. The aforementioned deterioration in services more than offset an improvement in the manufacturing PMI (+0.6 pts to 51). On a similar note, INSEE's (France's official statistics office) composite business climate indicator was down by 0.5 pts, to a still resilient

• 1. in January, versus an average of 100 since 1990.
• German PMIs improved substantially, although the IFO business survey revealed a more cautious tone in January. Specifically, manufacturing PMI, despite remaining deep in contractionary territory, improved significantly, by 1.5 pts to 45.2, overshooting consensus estimates for 44.5. The services PMI was also up, by 1.3 pts to 54.2 (consensus: 53.0). Overall, the composite PMI increased by 0.9 pts to 51.1, above consensus estimates for 50.5. Notably, according to Markit, the new orders component rose above the expansion/contraction threshold of 50 for the first time in seven months (at its highest since October 2018), reflecting mainly an easing drag from external demand. On the other hand, the IFO business survey deteriorated by 0.4 pts to
• 1. (consensus: 97.0), with a decrease in the expectations component (expectations for business conditions in the next six months) by 1.0 pt to 92.9, more than offsetting a modest increase in the assessment of current conditions (by 0.3 pts to 99.1).

Euro area bank credit conditions remain loose, while loan demand from corporations eased

• The ECB's Bank Lending Survey for Q4:19 suggests that the credit environment in the euro area remains supportive of economic activity, although signs emerged that the subdued economic impetus weighs on firms' appetite for investment. Specifically, following a substantial net easing since Q2:14, euro area banks reported largely stable credit standards (i.e. banks' internal guidelines or loan approval criteria) on loans to corporations (+1%) in Q4:19. The tightening effect from a less favorable risk perception related to the economic outlook more than offset the easing effect from increased pressure from competition. Recall that a positive reading indicates that the fraction of banks tightening standards is greater than those easing. Regarding households, standards were little changed for mortgage loans (+1%) and tightened moderately for consumer credit (+3%) in Q4:19. For Q1:20, euro area banks expect credit standards to remain broadly unchanged for loans to corporations, to modestly tighten for mortgage loans (+3%) and to loosen for consumer credit (-6%). Demand was mixed across loan categories. Regarding corporates, the share of banks reporting an increase in loan demand, minus the share of banks reporting a decline, was -8%in Q4:19, the first negative reading since Q4:13. Importantly, subdued capital spending was a key driver of the reduced firms' appetite for financing. Regarding households, the respective figure for consumer credit (credit cards, overdrafts, auto loans, student loans, etc.) was +10%, mainly on the back of low interest rates and resilient consumer confidence. Finally, mortgage loan demand rose substantially, with the net share of banks reporting an increase to +25%, due to low interest rates and a further improvement in the perception of housing market prospects. Recall that house prices in the euro area rose by 3.8% yoy in Q3:19.
  UK business confidence improved sharply in January, on the back of reduced political uncertainty
• UK PMIs recorded a broad based sharp increase entering Q1:20. Recall that an improvement was anticipated. Note also that the legislative process regarding the European Union (Withdrawal Agreement) Act is completed, with Brexit to take place on January 31st, removing a source of political uncertainty, at least in the short term. Nevertheless, PMIs exceeded expectations, with the manufacturing PMI up by 2.3 pts to 49.8 (consensus: 48.9) and the more forward-lookingindicator of new orders overperforming (+4.5 pts to 50.9). At the same time, PMI in the services sector rose by 2.9 pts to 52.9 (consensus: 51.1). Overall, the composite PMI increased by 3.1 pts to 52.4 in January, the highest since
  September 2018. Respondents' comments focused on reduced political uncertainty and more particularly on hopes for an end to domestic political indecision. Note also that in both sectors, private corporations' optimism improved sharply, with respondents' expectations for one year ahead output reaching its highest since June 2015 according to Markit. Looking forward, business confidence is set to remain sensitive to policy-related developments, particularly regarding the challenging and potentially convoluted negotiations for the future relationship with the EU.

National Bank of Greece | Economic Research Division | Global Markets Analysis

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NBG Global Markets Roundup | Economics & Markets Section

Equities

• Global equity markets lost ground in the past week, due to the health-scare regarding the coronavirus. Overall, the MSCI ACWI ended the week down by -1%(+1.4% ytd), with developed markets (-0.8%wow) overperforming their emerging market peers (-2.4%wow). In the US, the S&P500 ended the week down by -1.0%,with the Energy sector leading the decline (-4.2%wow) on the back of lower oil prices. Regarding the earnings season, out of the 86 companies that have reported results so far, 69% have exceeded analyst estimates. Consensus EPS expectations for Q4:19 stand at -1.9%yoy from -2.4%yoy in the past week and -2.2%yoy in the previous quarter. Positive earnings surprises recorded by companies in the Technology sector were mainly responsible for the decrease in the overall earnings decline during the week. Specifically, the positive EPS surprise reported by Intel ($1.52 vs. $1.25) was the largest contributor to the decrease in the earnings decline and, as a result, the expected earnings growth rate for the sector improved to 0.0% from -1.8%over this period. On the other side of the Atlantic, the EuroStoxx ended the week down by 0.5% wow, with Banks recording strong losses (-2.7%wow), due to lower yields. The DAX 30 rose by 0.4% wow, with the bulk of the increase occurring on Friday (+1.4%), following better-than-expectedPMI data. However, on Monday, European equities recorded strong losses (EuroStoxx: -2.4%,FTSE100: -2.3%),as worries grew about the economic impact of coronavirus. In China, the CSI 300 fell by 3.6% wow (one month low). Note that Chinese markets will remain closed until February 2nd after the extension of the Lunar New Year holiday.

Fixed Income

• Government bond yields declined sharply in the past week due to increased safe-haven demand. Specifically, US 10-yearyields declined by 14 bps wow to 1.69% and 2-yearyields fell by 6 bps to 1.50%. Similarly, in the UK, the 10-yearGilt fell by 7 bps to 0.56% and in Germany, the 10-yearBund yield fell by 12 bps to -0.34%.In Italy, the 10-yearyield declined by 14 bps wow to 1.23% and by a further 20 bps on Monday to 1.04%, to its lowest level since November, as Italian regional elections in Emilia Romagna reduced the likelihood of an early general election. Specifically, the Democratic Party (PD) candidate gained 51.4% of the vote, Salvini's coalition (Lega) gained 43.7% and the Five Star Movement candidate took 3.4%. Corporate bonds spreads in the High Yield spectrum widened in the past week, as investors were in risk-off mode. Specifically, the USD HY spread rose by 29 bps to 368 bps, while its euro area counterpart rose by 15 bps to 316 bps. In the Investment Grade spectrum, spreads were broadly stable both in the US (101 bps) and in the euro area (92 bps).

FX and Commodities

∙ In foreign exchange markets, the British Pound rose in the past week on the back of stronger-than-expected economic data (PMIs) and reduced market expectations of a central bank rate cut on January 30th compared with one week ago (but considerably up compared with one month ago). Overall, the British Pound rose by 0.3% against the US dollar to $1.308 and by 1.2% wow against the euro to €/0.842. The euro declined by 0.6% against the US Dollar to $1.103, with the bulk of the decline occurring on Friday (-0.3%),following subdued PMI data. The Japanese Yen rose in the past week (+1.4% against the euro to ¥120.49 and +0.8% against the US Dollar to ¥109.28) on the back of increased safe haven demand.

∙ In commodities, oil prices declined sharply in the past week, as worries over the coronavirus raised concerns over China's economic growth in H1:2020 and the resulting impact on oil demand. Overall, Brent ended the week down by -7.9%to $60/barrel (-9.7%ytd) and WTI by -7.6%to $54.1/barrel (-11.4%ytd), both at their lowest level since October. Gold prices rose in the past week (+0.9% to $1572/ounce), benefitting from safe haven demand.

												N A T I O N A L B A N Κ
													O F G R E E C E
S&P500 vs EuroStoxx
index				S&P500 (left)				EuroStoxx (right)	index
3350													420
3250													410
3150													400
3050													390
2950													380
													370
2850													360
2750													350
2650													340
2550													330
2450			Apr-19	May-19	Jun-19	Jul-19							320
Jan-19	Feb-19	Mar-19	Aug-19	Sep-19	Oct-19	Nov-19	Dec-19		Jan-20
Source: NBG Research, Bloomberg
													Graph 1.

Graph 2.

Probability of a 25 bps Rate Cut by the Bank of England at the January 30th Meeting

%									Probability							%
100																	100
90																	90
80																	80
70																	70
60																	60
50																	50
40																	40
30																	30
20																	20
10																	10
0																		0
17-Oct	24-Oct	31-Oct	7-Nov	14-Nov	21-Nov	28-Nov	5-Dec	12-Dec	19-Dec	26-Dec	2-Jan	9-Jan	16-Jan	23-Jan	30-Jan

Source: NBG Research, Bloomberg

Graph 3.

Quote of the week: "I'm concerned about low rate, because low rate is predicated on low growth, and I would much rather have much higher growth, higher rates... but this is not the situation we have at the moment. We are going to look at the potential side effects of the current circumstances", ECB President, Christine Lagarde, January

23rd, 2020.

National Bank of Greece | Economic Research Division | Global Markets Analysis

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NBG Global Markets Roundup | NBG 12-Month View & Key Factors for Global Markets

N A T I O N A L B A N Κ

O F G R E E C E

US		Euro Area		Japan		UK

Equity Markets

Government Bonds

• Fiscal loosening will support the economy & companies' earnings
• 2019 EPS growth expectations have stabilized
• Cash-richcorporates will lead to share buybacks and higher dividends (de-

equitization)

• Peaking profit margins
• Protectionism and trade wars
• Neutral/Positive

• Valuations appear rich with term-premium below 0%
• Underlying inflation pressures if Fed seek

makeup strategies

▬ Global search for yield by
	non-US investors continues
▬	Safe haven demand
▬	Fed is expected to cut rates
	in H2:2019

• Still high equity risk premium relative to other regions
• Credit conditions gradual turn more favorable
• Small fiscal loosening in

2019

• 2020 EPS estimates may turn pessimistic due to plateuning economic growth
• Political uncertainty (Italy, Brexit) could intensify
• Neutral
• Valuations appear excessive compared

with long-term fundamentals

▬	Political Risks
▬	Fragile growth outlook
▬ Medium-term inflation
	expectations remain
	low
▬ ECB QE net purchases
▬ ECB QE "stock" effect

• Still aggressive QE and "yield- curve" targeting by the BoJ
• Upward revisions in corporate earnings

• Signs of policy fatigue regarding structural reforms and fiscal discipline
• Strong appetite for foreign assets
• JPY appreciation in a risk-off scenario could hurt exporters

• Neutral
• Sizeable fiscal deficits
• Restructuring efforts to

be financed by fiscal policy measures

• Safe haven demand
• Extremely dovish central bank
• Yield-targetingof 10- Year JGB at around 0%

• 65% of FTSE100 revenues from abroad
• Undemanding valuations in relative terms
• High UK exposure to the commodities sector assuming the oil rally re- emerges

• Elevated Policy uncertainty to remain due to the outcome of the Brexit negotiating process
• Neutral/Negative

• Elevated Policy uncertainty to remain due to the outcome of the Brexit negotiating process
• Inflation overshooting due to GBP weakness feeds through inflation expectations
• The BoE is expected to increase short-term policy rates assuming WA deal

• Slowing economic growth post-Brexit

Foreign Exchange

 Slightly higher yields

expected

• Safe-havendemand

• Fed is expected to cut rates in H2:2019
• Mid-2018rally probably out of steam

• Broadly Flat USD against the EUR with upside risks towards $1.15

 Higher yields expected
	Reduced short-term tail
	risks
	Higher core bond yields
	Current account surplus
▬	Sluggish growth
▬	Deflation concerns
▬	The ECB's monetary
	policy to remain extra
	loose (Targeted-LTROs,
	ABSs, Quantitative
	Easing)
	Broadly Flat EUR
	against the USD with
	upside risks towards
	$1.15

• Stable yields expected
• Safe haven demand
• More balanced economic growth recovery (long- term)
• Inflation is bottoming out ▬ Additional Quantitative

Easing by the Bank of Japan if inflation does not approach 2%

• Slightly higher JPY

• Higher yields expected but with Brexit risk premia working on both directions
• Transitions phase negotiations
• The BoE is expected to

increase short-term policy rates assuming WA deal

• Sizeable Current account deficit
• Elevated Policy uncertainty to remain due to the outcome of the Referendum and the negotiating process
• Higher GBP expected but with Brexit risk premia working on both directions

National Bank of Greece | Economic Research Division | Global Markets Analysis

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NBG Global Markets Roundup | Economic & Markets Forecasts

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O F G R E E C E

Interest Rates & Foreign Exchange Forecasts

10-Yr Gov. Bond Yield (%)	January 24th	3-month	6-month	12-month	Official Rate (%)	January 24th	3-month	6-month12-month
Germany	-0,34	-0,20	-0,15	0,00	Euro area	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00
US	1,69	1,80	1,90	2,00	US	1,75	1,75	1,75	1,50
UK	0,56	0,83	0,80	0,74	UK	0,75	0,65	0,65	0,60
Japan	-0,02	-0,08	-0,04	0,00	Japan	-0,10	-0,10	-0,10	-0,10
Currency	January 24th	3-month	6-month	12-month		January 24th	3-month	6-month12-month
EUR/USD	1,10	1,13	1,13	1,15	USD/JPY	109	109	107	104
EUR/GBP	0,84	0,84	0,85	0,85	GBP/USD	1,31	1,34	1,33	1,35
EUR/JPY	120	123	121	120
Forecasts at end of period

Economic Forecasts

United States	2018a	Q1:19a	Q2:19a	Q3:19a	Q4:19f	2019f	Q1:20f	Q2:20f	Q3:20f	Q4:20f	2020f
Real GDP Growth (YoY) (1)	2,9	2,7	2,3	2,1	2,2	2,4	1,9	1,9	1,8	1,8	1,9
Real GDP Growth (QoQ saar) (2)	-	3,1	2,0	2,1	1,8	-	1,9	1,8	1,9	1,9	-
Private Consumption	3,0	1,1	4,6	3,1	1,5	2,6	2,2	1,9	2,1	2,0	2,3
Government Consumption	1,7	2,9	4,8	1,7	2,1	2,3	1,5	1,3	1,3	1,3	1,7
Investment	4,6	3,2	-1,4	-0,8	0,7	1,4	2,1	2,9	2,9	3,0	1,5
Residential	-1,5	-1,1	-2,9	4,6	5,6	-1,6	3,3	2,1	1,5	1,4	2,9
Non-residential	6,4	4,4	-1,0	-2,3	-1,2	2,2	1,8	3,1	3,2	3,3	1,0
Inventories Contribution	0,1	0,5	-1,0	0,0	-0,4	0,1	-0,1	0,0	0,0	0,0	-0,2
Net Exports Contribution	-0,4	0,8	-0,8	-0,2	0,8	-0,2	-0,2	-0,3	-0,3	-0,3	-0,1
Exports	3,0	4,2	-5,7	0,9	0,8	-0,1	1,2	1,8	1,9	1,9	0,9
Imports	4,4	-1,5	0,0	1,8	-3,8	1,3	1,7	3,0	3,0	3,0	1,0
Inflation (3)	2,4	1,6	1,8	1,7	2,1	1,8	2,2	1,9	2,1	2,1	2,1
Euro Area
2018a	Q1:19a	Q2:19a	Q3:19a	Q4:19f	2019f	Q1:20f	Q2:20f	Q3:20f	Q4:20f	2020f
Real GDP Growth (YoY)	1,9	1,4	1,2	1,2	1,1	1,2	0,9	1,1	1,1	1,2	1,1
Real GDP Growth (QoQ saar)	-	1,8	0,7	0,9	0,9	-	1,1	1,2	1,3	1,3	-
Private Consumption	1,4	1,5	0,9	2,0	1,3	1,3	1,3	1,3	1,3	1,3	1,4
Government Consumption	1,1	1,7	2,0	1,6	1,3	1,6	1,4	1,4	1,4	1,4	1,4
Investment	2,4	1,5	24,9	1,1	0,8	6,9	1,2	1,4	1,7	1,8	2,6
Inventories Contribution	0,0	-0,9	-0,1	-0,4	-0,3	-0,4	-0,1	0,0	0,0	0,0	-0,1
Net Exports Contribution	0,4	1,2	-4,7	-0,3	0,1	-0,8	0,0	-0,1	-0,1	-0,1	-0,4
Exports	3,3	3,5	0,6	1,7	1,7	2,4	2,0	2,2	2,5	2,6	2,0
Imports	2,7	1,1	11,8	2,6	1,7	4,5	2,2	2,5	2,8	2,9	2,9
Inflation	1,8	1,4	1,4	0,9	1,0	1,2	1,4	1,2	1,3	1,3	1,3

a: Actual, f: Forecasts, 1. Seasonally adjusted YoY growth rate, 2. Seasonally adjusted annualized QoQ growth rate, 3. Year-to-year average % change

National Bank of Greece | Economic Research Division | Global Markets Analysis

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NBG Global Markets Roundup | Economic News & Events Calendar

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O F G R E E C E

Economic Calendar

In the US, attention turns to Q4 GDP (30/1). Recent downward revisions for retail sales in October and November have led to more modest expectations for the growth of private consumption in the quarter (to c. 1.5% qoq saar vs 3.1% in Q3) and consequently of GDP, to 1.8% qoq saar according to the Atlanta Fed Nowcast model (1.2% according to New York Fed's Nowcast), versus consensus for 2.1% a couple of weeks ago. Meanwhile, the Fed is expected to remain on the sidelines in the January 29th meeting, with attention mostly in the press conference for any possible signs regarding officials' future policy intentions

In the euro area, January's flash estimate for CPI (31/1) will also be monitored for a better assessment of whether the recent acceleration in core growth (1.3% yoy in both December and November vs 1.0% on average in the past 3 years), is sustained.

Economic News Calendar for the period: January 21 - February 3, 2020

Fed Funds Rate

%							Fed Funds Rate					%
6,50											Forecasts	6,50
6,00														6,00
5,50														5,50
5,00														5,00
4,50														4,50
4,00														4,00
3,50														3,50
3,00														3,00
2,50														2,50
2,00														2,00
1,50														1,50
1,00														1,00
0,50														0,50
0,00														0,00
Jan-99	Jan-01	Jan-03	Jan-05	Jan-07	Jan-09	Jan-11	Jan-13	Jan-15	Jan-17	Jan-19

Source: NBG Research, Bloomberg

Tuesday 21						Wednesday 22						Thursday 23
UK		S		A	P	US		S		A	P	US		S		A	P
ILO Unemployment Rate 3Mths	November	3.8%		3.8%	3.8%	Existing Home Sales (mn)	December	5.43	+	5.54	5.35	Initial Jobless Claims (k)	January 18	214	+	211	205
GERMANY		-13.5	+	-9.5	-19.9							Continuing Claims (k)	January 11	1756	+ 1731	1768
ZEW survey current situation	January							JAPAN
ZEW survey expectations	January	15.0	+	26.7	10.7							Exports YoY	December	-4.3%	-	-6.3%	-7.9%
JAPAN												Imports YoY	December	-3.2%	-	-4.9%	-15.7%
Bank of Japan announces its	January 21	-0.10%		-0.10%-0.10%							EURO AREA
intervention rate								ECB announces its intervention		0.00%		0.00%	0.00%
											January 23
												rate
												ECB announces its deposit	January 23	-0.50%		-0.50%-0.50%
												facility rate
												Consumer Confidence Indicator	January	-7.8	-	-8.1	-8.1
Friday 24												Monday 27
US		S		A	P	EURO AREA						US		S		A	P
Markit US Manufacturing PMI	January	52.5	-	51.7	52.4	Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI	January	46.8	+	47.8	46.3	New Home Sales (k)	December	730	-	694	697
JAPAN												GERMANY
Core CPI (YoY) - ex. Fresh Food	December	0.7%		0.7%	0.5%	Markit Eurozone Services PMI	January	52.8	-	52.2	52.8	IFO- Business Climate Indicator	January	97.0	-	95.9	96.3
Core CPI (YoY) - ex. Fresh Food	December	0.9%		0.9%	0.8%	Markit Eurozone Composite PMI	January	51.2	-	50.9	50.9	IFO-Expectations	January	94.8	-	92.9	93.9
and Energy		0.7%	+ 0.8%	0.5%							IFO- Current Assesment	January	99.1		99.1	98.8
CPI (YoY)	December
PMI manufacturing	January	..		49.3	48.4
UK
Markit UK PMI Manufacturing	January	48.8	+	49.8	47.5
SA
Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI	January	51.1	+	52.9	50.0
Tuesday 28						Wednesday 29						Thursday 30
US		S		A	P	US		S		A	P	US		S		A	P
Durable goods orders (MoM)	December	0.4%		..	-2.1%	Pending home sales (MoM)	December	0.7%		..	1.2%	GDP (QoQ, annualized)	Q4:19	2.1%		..	2.1%
Durable goods orders ex	December	0.3%		..	-0.1%	Pending home sales NSA (YoY)	December	..		..	5.6%	Personal Consumption	Q4:19	2.0%		..	3.2%
transportation (MoM)	January	128.0		..	126.5	Fed announces its intervention rate	January 29	1.75%		..	1.75%	Initial Jobless Claims (k)	January 25	215		..	211
Consumer Confidence Index								Continuing Claims (k)	January 18	1730		..	1731
S&P Case/Shiller house price	November	2.40%		..	2.23%	EURO AREA	December	5.5%		..	5.6%	UK
index 20 (YoY)						M3 money supply (YoY)		BoE announces its intervention	January 30	0.75%		..	0.75%
												rate
												BoE Asset Purchase Target (£bn)	January	435		..	435
												EURO AREA
												Economic confidence indicator	January	101.8		..	101.5
												Business Climate Indicator	January	-0.20		..	-0.25
												Unemployment Rate	December	7.5%		..	7.5%
Friday 31												Monday 3
US		S		A	P	EURO AREA		S		A	P	US		S		A	P
Employment Cost Index (QoQ)	Q4:19	0.7%		..	0.7%	GDP (QoQ)	Q4:19	0.2%		..	0.2%	Construction spending (MoM)	December	0.4%		..	0.6%
Personal income (MoM)	December	0.3%		..	0.5%	GDP (YoY)	Q4:19	1.1%		..	1.2%	ISM Manufacturing	January	48.0		..	47.2
Personal spending (MoM)	December	0.3%		..	0.4%	CPI (YoY)	January	1.4%		..	1.3%	UK
PCE Deflator (YoY)	December	1.6%		..	1.5%	Core CPI (YoY)	January	1.2%		..	1.3%	Nationwide House Px NSA YoY	January	1.5%		..	1.4%
PCE Core Deflator (YoY)	December	1.6%		..	1.6%	CHINA		50.0		..	50.2	CHINA		51.0		..	51.5
JAPAN		1.0%		..	4.5%	Manufacturing PMI	January		Caixin PMI Manufacturing	January
Retail sales (MoM)	December		GERMANY
Retail sales (YoY)	December	-1.8%		..	-2.1%	Retail sales (MoM)	December	-0.5%		..	1.5%
Industrial Production (MoM)	December	0.7%		..	-1.0%	Retail sales (YoY)	December	4.5%		..	2.7%
Industrial Production (YoY)	December	-3.6%		..	-8.2%
Construction Orders YoY	December	..		..	-1.2%
Unemployment rate	December	2.3%		..	2.2%
Source: NBG Research, Bloomberg

S: Bloomberg Consensus Analysts Survey, A: Actual Outcome, P: Previous Outcome

National Bank of Greece | Economic Research Division | Global Markets Analysis

6

NBG Global Markets Roundup | Financial Markets Monitor

Equity Markets (in local currency)

N A T I O N A L B A N Κ

O F G R E E C E

Developed Markets	Current	1-week	Year-to-Date	1-Year	2-year	Emerging Markets	Current	1-week	Year-to-Date	1-Year	2-year
Level	change (%)	change (%)	change (%)	change (%)	Level	change (%)	change (%) change (%) change (%)
US	S&P 500	3295	-1,0	2,0	24,7	16,1	MSCI Emerging Markets	62053	-2,1	1,0	10,6	-4,9
Japan	NIKKEI 225	23827	-0,9	0,7	15,8	-0,5	MSCI Asia	921	-2,4	0,8	12,4	-7,1
UK	FTSE 100	7586	-1,2	0,6	11,2	-0,8	China	85	-4,8	-0,2	12,9	-14,9
Canada	S&P/TSX	17565	0,0	2,9	15,0	7,9	Korea	716	-0,4	3,6	11,8	-6,4
Hong Kong	Hang Seng	27950	-3,8	-0,9	3,1	-15,2	MSCI Latin America	102145	-0,9	2,0	8,8	10,8
Euro area	EuroStoxx	410	-0,5	1,5	18,6	2,1	Brazil	373351	-0,1	2,0	16,4	32,0
Germany	DAX 30	13577	0,4	2,5	22,0	1,2	Mexico	41691	-1,5	3,9	3,0	-13,0
France	CAC 40	6024	-1,3	0,8	23,7	9,6	MSCI Europe	6504	-1,4	2,0	15,3	11,6
Italy	FTSE/MIB	23969	-0,7	2,0	22,5	1,5	Russia	1397	-2,1	2,6	24,4	32,3
Spain	IBEX-35	9562	-1,2	0,1	4,5	-9,5	Turkey	1586638	-0,4	5,6	12,6	-3,5

World Market Sectors (MSCI Indices)

in US Dollar terms	Current	1-week	Year-to-Date	1-Year	2-year	in local currency	Current	1-week	Year-to-Date	1-Year	2-year
Level	change (%)	change (%)	change (%)	change (%)	Level	change (%)	change (%)	change (%)	change (%)
Energy	189,0	-3,3	-4,0	-3,5	-20,6	Energy	194,9	-3,2	-3,3	-3,2	-17,3
Materials	265,9	-1,6	-2,3	12,9	-10,4	Materials	257,1	-1,4	-1,4	13,8	-4,9
Industrials	281,9	-0,5	2,0	20,4	1,4	Industrials	280,4	-0,4	2,6	21,0	4,8
Consumer Discretionary	279,3	-1,6	0,4	17,8	7,3	Consumer Discretionary	270,7	-1,6	0,8	18,2	9,7
Consumer Staples	253,8	-0,4	1,1	19,3	4,0	Consumer Staples	255,8	-0,3	1,7	19,7	8,0
Healthcare	282,0	-1,5	1,0	18,9	16,3	Healthcare	279,6	-1,4	1,4	19,0	18,9
Financials	124,4	-1,6	-1,1	12,4	-8,9	Financials	125,5	-1,4	-0,4	12,9	-5,0
IT	329,6	0,4	6,0	46,9	38,8	IT	320,0	0,4	6,2	47,2	40,0
Telecoms	79,7	-1,1	2,9	22,8	10,3	Telecoms	83,4	-1,1	3,1	23,0	14,7
Utilities	158,0	2,0	5,2	21,2	26,2	Utilities	163,1	2,1	5,8	22,0	30,9

Bond Markets (%)

10-Year Government	Current	Last week	Year Start	One Year	10-year	Government Bond Yield	Current	Last week	Year Start	One Year	10-year
Bond Yields	Back	average	Spreads (in bps)	Back	average
US	1,69	1,82	1,92	2,72	2,38	US Treasuries 10Y/2Y	19	26	35	15	142
Germany	-0,34	-0,22	-0,19	0,18	1,09	US Treasuries 10Y/5Y	18	20	23	17	75
Japan	-0,02	0,00	-0,01	0,01	0,47	Bunds 10Y/2Y	28	37	42	76	118
UK	0,56	0,63	0,82	1,27	1,96	Bunds 10Y/5Y	25	30	29	49	74
Greece	1,31	1,42	1,47	4,15	9,96
Ireland	-0,07	0,06	0,12	0,92	3,43	Corporate Bond Spreads	Current	Last week	Year Start	One Year	10-year
Italy	1,23	1,37	1,41	2,66	3,16	(in bps)	Back	average
Spain	0,35	0,46	0,47	1,24	2,94	EM Inv. Grade (IG)	150	144	150	192	212
Portugal	0,38	0,50	0,44	1,65	4,71	EM High yield	466	454	494	513	644
						US IG	101	99	101	143	150
US Mortgage Market	Current	Last week	Year Start	One Year	10-year	US High yield	368	339	360	445	498
(1. Fixed-rate Mortgage)	Back	average
30-Year FRM1 (%)	3,9	3,9	4,0	4,8	4,2	Euro area IG	92	93	94	151	140
vs 30Yr Treasury (bps)	174	159	156	172	117	Euro area High Yield	316	301	308	466	484

Foreign Exchange & Commodities

Foreign Exchange	Current	1-week	1-month	1-Year	Year-to-Date	Commodities	Current	1-week	1-month	1-YearYear-to-Date
		change (%)	change (%)	change (%)	change (%)			change (%)	change (%)	change (%)	change (%)
Euro-based cross rates
EUR/USD	1,10	-0,6	-0,6	-2,5	-1,7	Agricultural	347	-1,1	1,1	-3,2	-0,3
EUR/CHF	1,07	-0,2	-1,5	-4,9	-1,3	Energy	445	-6,9	-10,8	2,1	-10,6
EUR/GBP	0,84	-1,2	-1,6	-2,7	-0,4	West Texas Oil ($)	54	-7,6	-11,4	2,2	-11,4
EUR/JPY	120,49	-1,4	-0,7	-2,8	-1,0	Crude brent Oil ($)	60	-7,9	-10,4	-1,5	-9,7
EUR/NOK	9,98	1,0	0,8	2,8	1,3	Industrial Metals	1186	-3,8	-3,3	-2,4	-2,6
EUR/SEK	10,55	-0,4	1,1	2,7	0,4	Precious Metals	1844	0,7	4,3	21,4	3,1
EUR/AUD	1,61	0,1	-0,4	1,2	1,0	Gold ($)	1572	0,9	4,8	22,7	3,6
EUR/CAD	1,45	0,0	-0,7	-4,0	-0,5	Silver ($)	18	0,5	2,0	18,3	1,5
USD-based cross rates						Baltic Dry Index	557	-26,1	-48,9	-40,7	-48,9
USD/CAD	1,31	0,6	-0,1	-1,5	1,2	Baltic Dirty Tanker Index	1190	-4,1	-25,5	36,0	-25,5
USD/AUD	1,47	0,7	1,4	3,9	2,8
USD/JPY	109,28	-0,8	-0,1	-0,3	0,6

Source: Bloomberg, as of January 24th, S&P/Goldman Sachs Indices for Agricultural, Energy, Industrial	National Bank of Greece | Economic Research Division | Global Markets Analysis
& Precious Metals, BofA/ML Indices for Corporate Bond Spreads

7

NBG Global Markets Roundup | Chartroom

N A T I O N A L B A N Κ

O F G R E E C E

Global Cross Asset ETFs: Flows as % of AUM

				DM Equities				Bonds
%				EM Equities				Commodities		%
70														70
65														65
60														60
55														55
50														50
45														45
40														40
35														35
30														30
25														25
20														20
15														15
10														10
5														5
0														0
-5														-5
-10														-10
-15			Apr-15			Jul-16		May-17	Oct-17	Mar-18				-15
Jan-14	Jun-14	Nov-14	Sep-15	Feb-16	Dec-16	Aug-18	Jan-19	Jun-19	Nov-19

Source: Bloomberg, NBG estimates, Cumulative flows since January 2014, AUM stands for Assets Under Management, Data as of January 24th

Equity Market Performance - G4

		S&P500		EuroStoxx			FTSE 100		Nikkei 225
116													116
114													114
112													112
110													110
108													108
106													106
104													104
102													102
100													100
98													98
96													96
94													94
92	8-Aug			19-Sep				14-Nov	28-Nov			9-Jan	92
25-Jul	22-Aug	5-Sep	3-Oct	17-Oct	31-Oct	12-Dec	26-Dec	23-Jan
				Source: Bloomberg - Data as of January 24th	- Rebased @ 100

Russell 2000 Value & Growth Index

Value/Growth Relative Performance during the previous 6 months (right) Russell 2000 Value (left)

Russell 2000 Growth (left)

2000													6
1900													5
1800
1700													4
1600													3
1500													2
1400
1300													1
1200													0
1100													-1
1000
900													-2
800	8-Aug							14-Nov	28-Nov			9-Jan	-3
25-Jul	22-Aug	5-Sep	19-Sep	3-Oct	17-Oct	31-Oct	12-Dec	26-Dec	23-Jan

Source: Bloomberg, Data as of January 24th

Equity ETFs: Flows as % of AUM

%			US		Emerging Markets		Europe exUK	%
35															35
30															30
25															25
20															20
15															15
10															10
5															5
0															0
-5															-5
-10															-10
-15			Apr-15						Oct-17	Mar-18					-15
Jan-14	Jun-14	Nov-14	Sep-15	Feb-16	Jul-16	Dec-16	May-17	Aug-18	Jan-19	Jun-19	Nov-19

Source: Bloomberg, NBG estimates, Cumulative flows since January 2014, AUM stands for Assets Under Management, Data as of January 24th

Equity Market Performance - BRICs

		Brazil			China			Russia			India
120													120
118													118
116													116
114													114
112													112
110													110
108													108
106													106
104													104
102													102
100													100
98													98
96													96
94													94
92													92
90	8-Aug			19-Sep				14-Nov	28-Nov	12-Dec		9-Jan	90
25-Jul	22-Aug	5-Sep	3-Oct	17-Oct	31-Oct	26-Dec	23-Jan

Source: Bloomberg - Data as of January 24th - Rebased @ 100

Russell 2000 & Russell 1000 Index

Small Cap/Large Cap Relative Performance during the previous 6 months (right) Russell 2000-Small cap (left)

Russell 1000-Large Cap (left)

1880													3
1840
1800													2
1760
1720													1
1680
1640													0
1600
1560													-1
1520
1480													-2
1440
1400	8-Aug			19-Sep				14-Nov	28-Nov			9-Jan	-3
25-Jul	22-Aug	5-Sep	3-Oct	17-Oct	31-Oct	12-Dec	26-Dec	23-Jan

Source: Bloomberg, Data as of January 24th

National Bank of Greece | Economic Research Division | Global Markets Analysis

8

NBG Global Markets Roundup | Chartroom

N A T I O N A L B A N Κ

O F G R E E C E

EUR/USD

€/$						EUR-USD						€/$
1,13														1,13
1,12														1,12
1,11														1,11
1,10														1,10
1,09		Stronger USD										1,09
1,08	8-Aug	22-Aug	5-Sep	19-Sep	3-Oct			14-Nov	28-Nov	12-Dec	26-Dec	9-Jan	23-Jan	1,08
25-Jul	17-Oct	31-Oct
							Source: Bloomberg, Data as of January 24th
10- Year Government Bond Yields
%		US (LA)		UK (LA)	Japan (RA)		Germany (RA) %
2,6														0,1
2,4														0,0
2,2
2,0														-0,1
1,8														-0,2
1,6
1,4														-0,3
1,2														-0,4
1,0														-0,5
0,8
0,6														-0,6
0,4														-0,7
0,2
0,0	8-Aug	22-Aug	5-Sep	19-Sep	3-Oct			14-Nov	28-Nov	12-Dec	26-Dec	9-Jan	23-Jan	-0,8
25-Jul	17-Oct	31-Oct
							Source: Bloomberg - Data as of January 24th
										LA:Left Axis RA:Right Axis
West Texas Intermediate ($/brl)
$/brl							WTI						$/brl
64														64
62														62
60														60
58														58
56														56
54														54
52														52
50	8-Aug			19-Sep				14-Nov	28-Nov				9-Jan	50
25-Jul	22-Aug	5-Sep	3-Oct	17-Oct	31-Oct	12-Dec		26-Dec	23-Jan

Source: Bloomberg, Data as of January 24th

JPY/USD

$/¥							USD-JPY					$/¥
111													111
110													110
109													109
108													108
107													107
106									Stronger JPY		106
105	8-Aug			19-Sep				14-Nov	28-Nov			9-Jan	105
25-Jul	22-Aug	5-Sep	3-Oct	17-Oct	31-Oct	12-Dec	26-Dec	23-Jan
								Source: Bloomberg, Data as of January 24th
10- Year Government Bond Spreads
bps			Italy			Portugal			Spain	bps
240													240
220													220
200													200
180													180
160													160
140													140
120													120
100													100
80													80
60													60
40													40
20	8-Aug	22-Aug		19-Sep	3-Oct			14-Nov	28-Nov		26-Dec	9-Jan	20
25-Jul	5-Sep	17-Oct	31-Oct	12-Dec	23-Jan
							Source: Bloomberg - Data as of January 24th
Gold ($/ounch)
$/ounch							Gold					$/ounch
1.590													1.590
1.570													1.570
1.550													1.550
1.530													1.530
1.510													1.510
1.490													1.490
1.470													1.470
1.450													1.450
1.430													1.430
1.410													1.410
1.390	8-Aug			19-Sep				14-Nov	28-Nov		26-Dec	9-Jan	1.390
25-Jul	22-Aug	5-Sep	3-Oct	17-Oct	31-Oct	12-Dec	23-Jan

Source: Bloomberg, Data as of January 24th

National Bank of Greece | Economic Research Division | Global Markets Analysis

9

NBG Global Markets Roundup | Equity Market Valuation Metrics

US Sectors Valuation

N A T I O N A L B A N Κ

O F G R E E C E

		Price ($)	EPS Growth (%)	Dividend Yield (%)		P/E Ratio			P/BV Ratio
	24/1/2020 % Weekly Change	2019	2020	2019	2020	2019	2020	12m fwd 10Yr Avg	2019	2020	12m fwd 10Yr Avg
S&P500	3295	-1,0	1,2	9,6	1,8	1,9	20,2	18,6	18,5	15,0	3,6	3,4	3,4	2,5
Energy	430	-4,2	-28,9	23,2	3,8	4,3	21,7	16,7	16,6	19,7	1,6	1,5	1,5	1,8
Materials	375	-2,3	-15,6	12,1	2,1	2,2	20,2	18,0	17,9	14,7	2,4	2,3	2,3	2,5
Financials
Diversified Financials	758	-1,5	1,7	6,2	1,4	1,6	16,2	15,4	15,3	13,8	1,9	1,8	1,8	1,5
Banks	359	-3,2	9,0	3,6	2,6	3,0	12,3	11,4	11,4	11,1	1,4	1,3	1,3	1,0
Insurance	444	-1,4	15,7	7,9	2,2	2,3	13,4	12,5	12,4	10,8	1,5	1,4	1,4	1,1
Real Estate	248	1,0	1,9	5,7	3,1	3,1	21,0	20,5	20,4	18,3	3,7	3,9	3,9	3,0
Industrials
Capital Goods	741	-1,2	-6,5	15,3	1,9	2,0	21,1	18,3	18,2	15,5	5,5	4,7	4,7	3,4
Transportation	802	-1,2	6,6	4,8	1,9	2,0	14,7	14,3	14,2	13,6	4,3	3,9	3,9	3,4
Commercial Services	369	1,1	12,9	8,7	1,3	1,3	28,5	27,2	27,0	19,8	6,0	5,8	5,8	3,4
Consumer Discretionary
Retailing	2458	-0,9	3,8	12,0	0,8	0,8	32,9	29,1	28,8	21,1	12,7	10,8	10,7	6,1
Media	685	-1,8	3,6	17,0	0,4	0,4	27,5	23,7	23,5	20,0	4,2	3,7	3,7	3,2
Consumer Services	1328	-3,0	5,0	11,0	2,1	2,3	23,9	21,5	21,4	19,2	14,8	13,7	13,7	6,3
Consumer Durables	375	-1,6	0,4	9,9	1,4	1,5	19,2	17,7	17,6	16,8	4,0	3,7	3,6	3,2
Automobiles and parts	113	-2,4	-16,4	18,5	4,2	4,2	8,5	7,1	7,1	8,4	1,4	1,2	1,2	1,7
IT
Technology	1698	-0,2	2,7	9,1	1,3	1,4	21,6	20,3	20,2	12,6	9,7	10,0	10,0	3,6
Software & Services	2438	-0,2	11,2	12,5	1,0	1,0	29,2	26,7	26,5	17,2	7,9	7,6	7,5	5,1
Semiconductors	1316	2,9	-12,3	7,5	1,8	1,8	18,9	18,5	18,4	13,9	5,5	5,4	5,3	3,1
Communication Services	188	-1,4	2,9	12,0	1,2	1,2	21,8	19,6	19,5	17,3	3,5	3,1	3,1	2,8
Consumer Staples
Food & Staples Retailing	489	0,0	2,9	4,8	1,7	1,8	21,5	20,5	20,5	16,0	4,6	4,3	4,3	3,1
Food Beverage & Tobacco	729	-0,1	-1,7	6,2	3,3	3,3	19,7	19,0	18,9	17,4	5,3	5,1	5,1	4,9
Household Goods	750	-1,5	6,6	7,9	2,3	2,4	25,8	24,1	24,0	19,1	8,9	8,7	8,7	5,0
Health Care
Pharmaceuticals	979	-2,8	9,3	8,2	2,1	2,3	16,0	14,6	14,5	14,4	5,5	4,5	4,4	3,4
Healthcare Equipment	1402	-1,1	10,3	9,7	1,0	1,1	20,4	18,7	18,6	15,1	3,7	3,3	3,3	2,6
Utilities	347	2,4	4,9	4,7	3,1	3,1	20,7	21,0	21,0	15,6	2,2	2,3	2,3	1,6

Source Factset, Blue box indicates a value more than +2standard devation from average, light blue a value more than +1standard devation from average. Orange box indicates a value less than -2standard devation from average, light orange a value less than -1standard devation from average

1-month revisions to 2020 & 12-month Forward EPS

12-month revisions to 2020 & 12-month Forward EPS

Earnings Revisions indicate 1-month change in 2020 & 12-month Forward EPS		Earnings Revisions indicate 12-month change in 2020 & 12-month Forward EPS
%
				2020							%						2020
2,0
				12-month forward					15
1,5														12-month forward
1,0												10
0,5												5
0,0												0
-0,5												-5
-1,0												-10
-1,5
-2,0												-15
-2,5												-20
-3,0							Health Care	S&P500				-25
IT	Consumer Staples	Financials	Real Estate	Energy	Utilities	Comm Services	Cons Discretionary	Materials	Industrials	Health Care	Utilities	Comm Services	Real Estate	Consumer Staples	IT	S&P500	Financials	Cons Discretionary	Industrials	Materials	Energy

Source: Factset, Data as of January 24th	Source: Factset, Data as of January 24th
12-month forward EPS are 93% of 2020 EPS and 7% of 2021 EPS	12-month forward EPS are 93% of 2020 EPS and 7% of 2021 EPS
	National Bank of Greece | Economic Research Division | Global Markets Analysis

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NBG Global Markets Roundup | Equity Market Valuation Metrics

Euro Area Sectors Valuation

N A T I O N A L B A N Κ

O F G R E E C E

		Price (€)	EPS Growth (%)	Dividend Yield (%)		P/E Ratio			P/BV Ratio
	24/1/2020 % Weekly Change	2019	2020	2019	2020	2019	2020	12m fwd 10Yr Avg	2019	2020	12m fwd 10Yr Avg
EuroStoxx	410	-0,5	2,6	8,4	3,1	3,2	16,7	15,5	15,4	13,2	1,7	1,7	1,7	1,4
Energy	318	-2,8	-10,1	16,7	4,9	5,4	13,8	11,3	11,2	11,4	1,3	1,2	1,1	1,2
Materials	492	0,1	13,9	8,1	3,1	3,3	15,4	14,4	14,4	14,1	1,9	1,8	1,8	1,4
Basic Resources	192	-1,4	-61,6	49,1	3,3	3,4	19,3	12,5	12,4	13,6	0,8	0,7	0,7	0,9
Chemicals	1160	-0,1	-12,7	8,6	2,6	2,8	21,8	20,1	20,0	15,0	2,1	2,0	2,0	2,2
Financials
Fin/al Services	533	1,9	25,4	-6,0	2,4	2,5	15,8	17,4	17,3	14,1	1,7	1,6	1,6	1,3
Banks	93	-2,7	-1,6	3,6	5,7	6,0	9,3	8,6	8,6	10,0	0,6	0,6	0,6	0,7
Insurance	304	0,3	13,0	5,1	4,8	5,1	11,0	10,4	10,4	9,2	1,0	1,0	1,0	0,9
Real Estate	254	1,5	0,1	4,4	4,2	4,2	19,1	18,9	18,8	16,7	1,0	1,0	1,0	1,0
Industrial	977	0,7	11,4	12,1	2,3	2,5	20,3	18,6	18,4	15,1	3,2	3,0	3,0	2,3
Consumer Discretionary
Media	226	0,0	9,5	9,4	3,3	3,5	17,2	15,7	15,6	15,7	2,3	2,2	2,2	2,0
Retail	599	-2,4	3,4	10,7	2,5	2,8	25,0	22,4	22,3	18,6	3,9	3,6	3,6	2,8
Automobiles and parts	460	-3,9	-12,1	8,8	3,7	4,1	8,8	7,5	7,5	8,7	0,9	0,8	0,8	1,0
Travel and Leisure	204	-3,3	-4,8	24,4	2,0	2,2	15,7	12,0	11,9	14,7	1,9	1,7	1,7	1,8
Technology	642	0,6	6,3	11,4	1,2	1,0	26,5	24,4	24,2	18,1	4,2	4,0	3,9	3,0
Communication Services	293	0,6	-14,2	18,4	4,2	4,4	17,5	14,9	14,8	14,0	1,9	1,8	1,8	1,8
Consumer Staples
Food&Beverage	606	-1,6	16,8	5,8	2,1	2,2	20,5	19,5	19,4	18,4	2,7	2,5	2,5	2,6
Household Goods	1101	-1,5	6,9	11,3	1,6	1,8	29,6	26,9	26,7	20,6	6,1	5,6	5,5	3,7
Health care	894	-0,8	7,3	8,8	2,1	2,2	20,1	18,4	18,2	15,0	2,4	2,3	2,3	2,1
Utilities	378	2,9	56,2	8,7	4,5	4,5	16,1	15,9	15,9	12,6	1,6	1,6	1,6	1,1

Source Factset, Blue box indicates a value more than +2standard devation from average, light blue a value more than +1standard devation from average. Orange box indicates a value less than -2standard devation from average, light orange a value less than -1standard devation from average

1-month revisions to 2020 & 12-month Forward EPS	12-month revisions to 2020 & 12-month Forward EPS
Earnings Revisions indicate 1-month change in 2020 & 12-month Forward EPS	Earnings Revisions indicate 12-month change in 2020 & 12-month Forward EPS

%	2020	%
3	20
12-month Forward
15
2		10
	5
1		0
	-5
0		-10
	-15
-1		-20
	-25
		-30
-2		-35
		-40
-3		-45

2020

12-month Forward

Media Travel and Leisure Technology Utilities Fin/al Services Household Goods Health care Food&Beverage Basic Resources Banks Industrial Autos and parts EuroStoxx Retail Materials Insurance Real Estate Energy Comm Services Chemicals		Utilities Materials Insurance Media Household Goods Health care Industrial Food&Beverage Fin/al Services Retail Technology EuroStoxx Real Estate Energy Travel and Leisure Chemicals Banks Comm Services Autos and parts Basic Resources
Source: Factset, Data as of January 24th		Source: Factset, Data as of January 24th
12-month forward EPS are 93% of 2020 EPS and 7% of 2021 EPS		12-month forward EPS are 93% of 2020 EPS and 7% of 2021 EPS
		National Bank of Greece | Economic Research Division | Global Markets Analysis

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NBG Global Markets Roundup | Disclosures & Analyst Certification

N A T I O N A L B A N Κ

O F G R E E C E

DISCLOSURES:

This report has been produced by the Economic Research Division of the National Bank of Greece, which is regulated by the Bank of Greece, and is provided solely as a sheer reference for the information of experienced and sophisticated investors who are expected and considered to be fully able to make their own investment decisions without reliance on its contents, i.e. only after effecting their own independent enquiry from sources of the investors' sole choice. The information contained in this report does not constitute the provision of investment advice and under no circumstances is it to be used or considered as an offer or an invitation to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer or invitation to buy or sell or enter into any agreement with respect to any security, product, service or investment. No information or opinion contained in this report shall constitute any representation or warranty as to future performance of any financial instrument, credit, currency rate or other market or economic measure. Past performance is not necessarily a reliable guide to future performance. National Bank of Greece and/or its affiliates shall not be liable in any matter whatsoever for any consequences (including but not limited to any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits and damages) of any reliance on or usage of this report and accepts no legal responsibility to any investor who directly or indirectly receives this report. The final investment decision must be made by the investor and the responsibility for the investment must be taken by the investor.

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ANALYST CERTIFICATION:

The research analyst denoted by an "AC" on page 1 holds the certificate (type Δ) of the Hellenic Capital Market Commission/Bank of Greece which allows her/him to conduct market analysis and reporting and hereby certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views solely, about any and all of the subject issues. Further, each of these individuals also certifies that no part of any of the report analyst's compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. Also, all opinions and estimates are subject to change without notice and there is no obligation for update.

National Bank of Greece | Economic Research Division | Global Markets Analysis

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