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MarketScreener Homepage  >  Equities  >  Euronext Amsterdam  >  Royal Dutch Shell plc    RDSA   GB00B03MLX29


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Royal Dutch Shell plc Shell Second Quarter 2020 Update Note

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06/30/2020 | 02:16am EDT
   The Hague, June 30, 2020 - This is an update to the second quarter 2020 
outlook provided in the first quarter results announcement on April 30, 
2020. The impacts presented here may vary from the actual results and 
are subject to finalisation of the second quarter 2020 results. 
   Unless otherwise indicated, presented post-tax earnings impacts relate 
to earnings on a current cost of supplies basis, attributable to 
shareholders, excluding identified items. 
   In addition, given the impact of COVID-19 and the ongoing challenging 
commodity price environment, Shell continues to adapt to ensure the 
business remains resilient. In light of this, Shell is announcing today 
a revised long-term commodity prices and margin outlook, which is 
expected to result in non-cash impairments in the second quarter 
results. Details of the outlook and impairments are provided in the 
later part of this document. 
   Integrated Gas 
   -- Production is expected to be between 880 and 910 thousand barrels of oil 
      equivalent per day 
   -- LNG liquefaction volumes are expected to be between 8.1 and 8.5 million 
   -- Additional well write-offs in the range of $250 to $350 million are 
      expected compared with the second quarter 2019. No cash impact is 
      expected in the second quarter 
   -- Deferred tax charges are expected to have a negative impact on earnings 
      in the range of $100 to $200 million. No cash impact is expected in the 
      second quarter 
   -- Trading and optimisation results are expected to be below average 
   -- As previously communicated, more than 90% of our term contracts for LNG 
      sales in 2019 were oil price linked with a price-lag of typically 3-6 
      months. Consequently, the impact of lower oil prices on LNG margins 
      became more prominent from June onwards 
   -- CFFO in Integrated Gas can be impacted by margining resulting from 
      movements in the forward commodity curves. Margining inflows are not 
      expected to be significantly different from those received in the first 
      quarter 2020 
   -- Production is expected to be between 2,300 and 2,400 thousand barrels of 
      oil equivalent per day. Although this production range is higher compared 
      with the outlook previously provided, it has had a limited impact on 
      earnings in the current macro environment 
   -- Updates related to receivables and inventory provisions are expected to 
      have a negative earnings impact in the range of $200 to $400 million 
      compared with the second quarter 2019. No cash impact is expected in the 
      second quarter 
   -- As previously communicated, CFFO is expected to be negatively impacted by 
      the Lula unitisation settlement in Brazil of around $500 million, for 
      which the earnings impact was recognised in the third quarter 2018 
   -- While earnings are expected to show a loss, CFFO is not expected to 
      reflect equivalent cash tax receipts due to the build-up of deferred tax 
      positions in a number of countries. Additionally, due to phasing impacts, 
      tax payments are expected in the second quarter 
   Oil Products 
   -- Refinery utilisation is expected to be between 67% and 71% 
   -- Realised gross refining margins are expected to be significantly lower 
      compared with the first quarter 2020 and are expected to be offset by 
      higher trading and optimisation results 
   -- Oil Products sales volumes are expected to be between 3,500 and 4,500 
      thousand barrels per day, driven by a significant drop in demand related 
      to the impact of COVID-19 
   -- Updates related to receivables provisions are expected to have a negative 
      earnings impact in the range of $200 to $300 million. No cash impact is 
      expected in the second quarter 
   -- Working capital in Oil Products are typically impacted by movements 
      between the quarter opening and closing price of crude along with changes 
      in inventory volumes. Inventory volumes are expected to be higher 
      compared with the end of the first quarter 2020, impacting working 
      capital negatively 
   -- Chemicals manufacturing plant utilisation is expected to be between 75% 
      and 79% 
   -- Chemicals sales volumes are expected to be between 3,400 and 3,700 
      thousand tonnes 
   -- Corporate segment earnings excluding identified items are expected to be 
      a net expense at the lower end of the $800 to $875 million range for the 
      second quarter. This excludes the impact of currency exchange rate 
   -- CFFO is expected to be impacted by a working capital outflow in respect 
      of margining and settlement of operational foreign exchange instruments 
   Revised commodity price and margin outlook and impairments 
   In the second quarter 2020, Shell has revised its mid and long-term 
price and refining margin outlook reflecting the expected effects of the 
COVID-19 pandemic and related macroeconomic as well as energy market 
demand and supply fundamentals. This has resulted in the review of a 
significant portion of Shell's Upstream, Integrated Gas and Refining 
tangible and intangible assets. 
   The Refining asset valuation updates reflect Shell's strategy to reshape 
and focus its refining portfolio to support the decarbonization of its 
energy product mix, leveraging assets and value chains in key markets. 
The Upstream and Integrated Gas asset valuation updates, including of 
related exploration and evaluation assets, are largely driven by the 
change in long-term prices with some impacts due to a changed view on 
the development attractiveness. A revision in the decommissioning and 
restoration provision discount rate assumption from 3% to 1.75%, 
reflecting a lower interest rate environment, has impacted the asset 
values tested for impairment. 
   -- The following price and margin outlook have been assumed for impairment 
          -- Brent: $35/bbl (2020), $40/bbl (2021), $50/bbl (2022), $60/bbl 
             (2023) and long-term $60 (real terms 2020) 
          -- Henry Hub: $1.75/MMBtu (2020), $2.5/MMBtu (2021 and 2022), 
             2.75/MMBtu (2023) and long-term $3.0/MMBtu (real terms 2020) 
          -- Average long-term refining margins revised downwards by around 30% 
             from previous midcycle downstream assumption 
   -- Based on these reviews, aggregate post-tax impairment charges in the 
      range of $15 to $22 billion are expected in the second quarter. 
      Impairment charges are reported as identified items and no cash impact is 
      expected in the second quarter. Indicative breakdown per segment is as 
          -- Integrated Gas $8 -- $9 billion, primarily in Australia including 
             partial impairment of QGC and Prelude 
          -- Upstream $4 -- $6 billion, largely in Brazil and North America 
          -- Oil Products $3 -- $7 billion across the refining portfolio 
   -- These impairments are expected to have a pre-tax impact in the range of 
      $20 to $27 billion. No impairment charge on Goodwill is expected to be 
      recorded in the second quarter 
   -- Impairment calculations are being progressed: the range and timing of the 
      recognition of impairments in the second quarter are uncertain and 
      assessments are currently ongoing 
   -- The revised outlook for commodity prices and refining margins could 
      impact overall deferred tax positions, which will be reviewed after the 
      finalisation of the operating plan later in 2020 
   -- Gearing is expected to increase by up to 3% due to the impairments. 
      Additional impacts to reported gearing levels are expected due to 
      pensions revaluations associated with the current interest rate 
      environment along with other usual quarterly movements 
   -- As per previous disclosures, CFFO price sensitivity at Shell Group level 
      is still estimated to be $6 billion per annum for each $10 per barrel 
      Brent price movement 
          -- Note that this price sensitivity is indicative, is most applicable 
             to smaller price changes than those in the current environment and 
             in relation to the full-year results. This excludes short-term 
             impacts from working capital movements and cost-of-sales 
   -- In order to enhance our disclosures and market communications, a 
      quarterly press release will be published as of the second quarter 2020, 
      in addition to the quarterly unaudited results. The quarterly press 
      release will provide a summary of key messages and key performance 
      drivers and should not be considered in isolation from, or a substitute 
      for, financial information presented in compliance with Generally 
      Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP). To further simplify market 
      communications, with effect from the second quarter, "CCS earnings 
      attributable to shareholders excluding identified items" will be renamed 
      to "Adjusted earnings" while the definition remains unchanged 
   The consensus collection for quarterly earnings and CFFO excluding 
working capital movements, managed by VARA research, is scheduled to be 
opened for submission on July 8, 2020, closed on July 22, 2020, and made 
public on July 23, 2020. 
   Royal Dutch Shell plc 
   International +44 (0) 207 934 5550 
   Americas +1 832 337 4355 
   Cautionary Note 
   The companies in which Royal Dutch Shell plc directly and indirectly 
owns investments are separate legal entities. In this announcement 
"Shell", "Shell Group" and "Royal Dutch Shell" are sometimes used for 
convenience where references are made to Royal Dutch Shell plc and its 
subsidiaries in general. Likewise, the words "we", "us" and "our" are 

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Financials (USD)
Sales 2020 230 B - -
Net income 2020 2 866 M - -
Net Debt 2020 74 264 M - -
P/E ratio 2020 64,6x
Yield 2020 4,53%
Capitalization 123 B 124 B -
EV / Sales 2019
EV / Sales 2020 0,86x
Nbr of Employees 83 000
Free-Float 99,6%
Duration : Period :
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Mean consensus OUTPERFORM
Number of Analysts 14
Average target price 20,20 $
Last Close Price 16,35 $
Spread / Highest target 108%
Spread / Average Target 23,6%
Spread / Lowest Target -42,0%
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Bernardus Cornelis Adriana Margriet van Beurden Chief Executive Officer & Executive Director
Charles Otis Holliday Chairman
Jessica Rodgers Uhl Chief Financial Officer & Director
Harry Brekelmans Director-Technology & Projects
Gerard Johannes Kleisterlee Deputy Chairman
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TOTAL S.A.-31.48%99 086
GAZPROM-23.36%65 826