Consensus Q4 '19
Analyst forecasts for the period ending 31 Dec 2019
Please note that this analyst consensus is subject to the disclaimer below:
The analyst consensus is based on forecasts provided by various leading equity analysts covering the KPN share, when compiling consensus KPN did not request analysts to take any impact of divestments into consideration.
The analyst consensus for the Q4 2019 period and full fiscal years 2019-2021 is based on the non-weighted average of 16 analyst forecasts (vs. 20 in Q3 2019). The analyst forecasts were submitted to KPN in the period of 09 Dec 2019 to 19 Dec 2019. The consensus was published at 20 Dec 2019 at 17:45 CET.
The analyst consensus does not in any way represent KPN's financial expectations nor can this be considered to be a forward looking statement by KPN. The analyst consensus is provided for information purposes only, for the convenience of our investors.
KPN is not responsible and cannot be held liable in any way for the accuracy, completeness or validity of the analyst consensus, nor for the figures, calculations or assumptions that have led thereto.
Consolidated figures | Q4 '19 | FY '19 | FY '20 | FY '21 | |||||||||||||||||||
Average | Median | High | Low | Average | Median | High | Low | Average | Median | High | Low | Average | Median | High | Low | ||||||||
Adjusted revenues | |||||||||||||||||||||||
Consumer | |||||||||||||||||||||||
738 | 738 | 742 | 733 | 2,919 | 2,919 | 2,923 | 2,914 | 2,896 | 2,899 | 2,918 | 2,833 | 2,901 | 2,903 | 2,943 | 2,778 | ||||||||
Business | 521 | 522 | 532 | 511 | 2,036 | 2,037 | 2,047 | 2,026 | 1,973 | 1,980 | 2,001 | 1,935 | 1,945 | 1,958 | 1,992 | 1,852 | |||||||
Wholesale | 160 | 161 | 171 | 140 | 643 | 643 | 653 | 623 | 639 | 644 | 670 | 545 | 639 | 645 | 676 | 561 | |||||||
Network, Operations & IT | 3 | 3 | 10 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 14 | 5 | 9 | 8 | 25 | 4 | 9 | 8 | 25 | 4 | |||||||
Other (incl. eliminations) | -29 | -30 | -18 | -40 | -118 | -118 | -107 | -131 | -119 | -118 | -103 | -150 | -119 | -118 | -104 | -150 | |||||||
Total adjusted revenues | 1,394 | 1,395 | 1,424 | 1,362 | 5,487 | 5,488 | 5,517 | 5,455 | 5,397 | 5,407 | 5,472 | 5,310 | 5,375 | 5,404 | 5,457 | 5,178 | |||||||
Revenues incidentals | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 190 | 190 | 191 | 190 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
Total reported revenues | 1,394 | 1,395 | 1,424 | 1,362 | 5,678 | 5,679 | 5,707 | 5,646 | 5,397 | 5,407 | 5,472 | 5,310 | 5,375 | 5,404 | 5,457 | 5,178 | |||||||
Operating expenses excl. D&A | |||||||||||||||||||||||
Cost of goods & services | 338 | 342 | 349 | 313 | 1,277 | 1,281 | 1,288 | 1,252 | 1,245 | 1,257 | 1,298 | 1,128 | 1,240 | 1,257 | 1,292 | 1,103 | |||||||
Personnel expenses | 253 | 250 | 282 | 240 | 1,025 | 1,022 | 1,054 | 1,012 | 975 | 972 | 1,074 | 921 | 934 | 927 | 1,085 | 861 | |||||||
IT/TI | 97 | 93 | 112 | 86 | 366 | 362 | 381 | 355 | 344 | 333 | 432 | 298 | 316 | 308 | 432 | 252 | |||||||
Other operating expenses | 120 | 122 | 146 | 82 | 443 | 445 | 470 | 405 | 387 | 394 | 434 | 340 | 343 | 367 | 422 | 160 | |||||||
Total operating expenses excl. D&A | 807 | 808 | 839 | 768 | 3,111 | 3,112 | 3,143 | 3,072 | 2,970 | 2,974 | 3,172 | 2,850 | 2,859 | 2,846 | 3,049 | 2,737 | |||||||
Opex incidentals | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
Opex restructuring | -32 | -30 | -15 | -57 | -125 | -123 | -108 | -150 | -104 | -100 | -70 | -120 | -92 | -95 | -68 | -110 | |||||||
Total adjusted operating expenses | 775 | 778 | 797 | 753 | 2,986 | 2,988 | 3,009 | 2,964 | 2,866 | 2,857 | 3,072 | 2,745 | 2,767 | 2,746 | 2,959 | 2,630 | |||||||
Adjusted EBITDA | |||||||||||||||||||||||
EBITDA | 587 | 585 | 608 | 572 | 2,567 | 2,564 | 2,589 | 2,552 | 2,432 | 2,441 | 2,489 | 2,321 | 2,519 | 2,514 | 2,633 | 2,301 | |||||||
Incidentals | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -190 | -190 | -190 | -191 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
Restructuring | 32 | 30 | 57 | 15 | 125 | 123 | 150 | 108 | 105 | 103 | 120 | 70 | 93 | 98 | 110 | 68 | |||||||
Lease-related expenses | |||||||||||||||||||||||
Depreciation right-of-use asset | -36 | -35 | -34 | -41 | -140 | -139 | -138 | -145 | -141 | -141 | -132 | -150 | -141 | -141 | -132 | -150 | |||||||
Interest lease liabilities | -8 | -8 | -7 | -8 | -30 | -30 | -29 | -33 | -30 | -30 | -23 | -33 | -30 | -30 | -18 | -33 | |||||||
Adjusted EBITDA after leases | 575 | 571 | 610 | 562 | 2,331 | 2,325 | 2,368 | 2,318 | 2,366 | 2,368 | 2,424 | 2,269 | 2,440 | 2,440 | 2,559 | 2,229 | |||||||
P&L items cont'd | |||||||||||||||||||||||
Depreciation | |||||||||||||||||||||||
239 | 241 | 260 | 220 | 968 | 970 | 989 | 949 | 957 | 953 | 1,000 | 900 | 940 | 941 | 1,020 | 840 | ||||||||
Amortization | 139 | 138 | 148 | 132 | 551 | 550 | 560 | 544 | 532 | 543 | 572 | 400 | 526 | 540 | 572 | 390 | |||||||
Total D&A | 379 | 380 | 392 | 366 | 1,520 | 1,521 | 1,533 | 1,507 | 1,497 | 1,503 | 1,552 | 1,399 | 1,473 | 1,469 | 1,559 | 1,380 | |||||||
Operating profit | |||||||||||||||||||||||
208 | 209 | 229 | 192 | 1,023 | 1,043 | 1,069 | 855 | 935 | 932 | 1,061 | 797 | 1,046 | 1,022 | 1,182 | 777 | ||||||||
Profit for the period | |||||||||||||||||||||||
75 | 86 | 133 | 6 | 568 | 612 | 658 | 197 | 512 | 522 | 588 | 399 | 618 | 622 | 738 | 405 | ||||||||
Earnings per share (non-diluted) from continuing operations (in €) | |||||||||||||||||||||||
0.02 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.15 | 0.16 | 0.05 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0.16 | 0.09 | 0.15 | 0.15 | 0.19 | 0.10 | ||||||||
Dividend per share (in € cents) - Regular | 7.8 | 8.3 | 9.2 | 0.0 | 12.0 | 12.5 | 13.4 | 4.2 | 12.8 | 13.2 | 14.4 | 4.4 | 13.7 | 13.9 | 16.2 | 4.6 | |||||||
Dividend per share (in € cents) - Additional | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||
Dividend per share (in € cents) - Total | 7.8 | 8.3 | 9.2 | 0.0 | 12.1 | 12.5 | 13.4 | 4.2 | 12.8 | 13.2 | 14.4 | 4.4 | 13.7 | 13.9 | 16.2 | 4.6 | |||||||
Free cash flow | |||||||||||||||||||||||
EBITDA | 587 | 585 | 608 | 572 | 2,567 | 2,564 | 2,589 | 2,552 | 2,432 | 2,441 | 2,489 | 2,321 | 2,519 | 2,514 | 2,633 | 2,301 | |||||||
Interest received/(paid) | -64 | -63 | -47 | -78 | -330 | -329 | -313 | -344 | -286 | -283 | -259 | -310 | -270 | -270 | -235 | -301 | |||||||
Taxes received/(paid) | -10 | -7 | 0 | -27 | -18 | -15 | -8 | -35 | -23 | -25 | 0 | -33 | -29 | -27 | 0 | -100 | |||||||
Change in provisions | 8 | 0 | 33 | -10 | -25 | -33 | 0 | -43 | -11 | 0 | 8 | -50 | -9 | 0 | 7 | -30 | |||||||
Change in working capital | 95 | 96 | 130 | 35 | -62 | -61 | -27 | -122 | -46 | -41 | 0 | -85 | -24 | -26 | 20 | -52 | |||||||
Other movements (incl. TEFD dividend) | -2 | 0 | 50 | -37 | -149 | -146 | -96 | -187 | -3 | 0 | 20 | -50 | -1 | 0 | 20 | -25 | |||||||
Net cash flow from operating activities | 614 | 613 | 643 | 578 | 1,986 | 1,983 | 2,013 | 1,950 | 2,065 | 2,058 | 2,176 | 1,960 | 2,186 | 2,194 | 2,373 | 1,984 | |||||||
Capex | |||||||||||||||||||||||
-308 | -308 | -300 | -321 | -1,101 | -1,100 | -1,092 | -1,113 | -1,100 | -1,100 | -1,084 | -1,120 | -1,103 | -1,100 | -1,079 | -1,170 | ||||||||
Proceeds from real estate | 1 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 0 | |||||||
Repayment of lease liabilities | -35 | -36 | -27 | -40 | -148 | -149 | -140 | -153 | -149 | -150 | -132 | -160 | -149 | -150 | -136 | -160 | |||||||
FCF | 272 | 272 | 293 | 243 | 737 | 737 | 757 | 710 | 817 | 799 | 928 | 728 | 935 | 949 | 1,120 | 748 | |||||||
Telefónica Deutschland dividend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 24 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
FCF (excl. TEFD dividend) | 272 | 272 | 293 | 243 | 714 | 714 | 733 | 700 | 817 | 799 | 928 | 728 | 935 | 949 | 1,120 | 748 | |||||||
Analyst consensus Q4 2019.xlsx | Page 2 of 2 |
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Koninklijke KPN NV published this content on 29 January 2020 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 28 January 2020 02:54:08 UTC