Royal KPN : KPN Q4 2019 Results (Consensus)

Consensus Q4 '19

Analyst forecasts for the period ending 31 Dec 2019

Please note that this analyst consensus is subject to the disclaimer below:

The analyst consensus is based on forecasts provided by various leading equity analysts covering the KPN share, when compiling consensus KPN did not request analysts to take any impact of divestments into consideration.

The analyst consensus for the Q4 2019 period and full fiscal years 2019-2021 is based on the non-weighted average of 16 analyst forecasts (vs. 20 in Q3 2019). The analyst forecasts were submitted to KPN in the period of 09 Dec 2019 to 19 Dec 2019. The consensus was published at 20 Dec 2019 at 17:45 CET.

The analyst consensus does not in any way represent KPN's financial expectations nor can this be considered to be a forward looking statement by KPN. The analyst consensus is provided for information purposes only, for the convenience of our investors.

KPN is not responsible and cannot be held liable in any way for the accuracy, completeness or validity of the analyst consensus, nor for the figures, calculations or assumptions that have led thereto.

			Consolidated figures			Q4 '19				FY '19				FY '20				FY '21
					Average	Median	High	Low	Average	Median	High	Low	Average	Median	High	Low	Average	Median	High	Low
			Adjusted revenues
			Consumer
				738	738	742	733	2,919	2,919	2,923	2,914	2,896	2,899	2,918	2,833	2,901	2,903	2,943	2,778
			Business		521	522	532	511	2,036	2,037	2,047	2,026	1,973	1,980	2,001	1,935	1,945	1,958	1,992	1,852
			Wholesale		160	161	171	140	643	643	653	623	639	644	670	545	639	645	676	561
			Network, Operations & IT		3	3	10	1	8	7	14	5	9	8	25	4	9	8	25	4
			Other (incl. eliminations)		-29	-30	-18	-40	-118	-118	-107	-131	-119	-118	-103	-150	-119	-118	-104	-150
			Total adjusted revenues		1,394	1,395	1,424	1,362	5,487	5,488	5,517	5,455	5,397	5,407	5,472	5,310	5,375	5,404	5,457	5,178
			Revenues incidentals		0	0	0	0	190	190	191	190	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
			Total reported revenues		1,394	1,395	1,424	1,362	5,678	5,679	5,707	5,646	5,397	5,407	5,472	5,310	5,375	5,404	5,457	5,178
			Operating expenses excl. D&A
			Cost of goods & services		338	342	349	313	1,277	1,281	1,288	1,252	1,245	1,257	1,298	1,128	1,240	1,257	1,292	1,103
			Personnel expenses		253	250	282	240	1,025	1,022	1,054	1,012	975	972	1,074	921	934	927	1,085	861
			IT/TI		97	93	112	86	366	362	381	355	344	333	432	298	316	308	432	252
			Other operating expenses		120	122	146	82	443	445	470	405	387	394	434	340	343	367	422	160
			Total operating expenses excl. D&A		807	808	839	768	3,111	3,112	3,143	3,072	2,970	2,974	3,172	2,850	2,859	2,846	3,049	2,737
			Opex incidentals		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
			Opex restructuring		-32	-30	-15	-57	-125	-123	-108	-150	-104	-100	-70	-120	-92	-95	-68	-110
			Total adjusted operating expenses		775	778	797	753	2,986	2,988	3,009	2,964	2,866	2,857	3,072	2,745	2,767	2,746	2,959	2,630
			Adjusted EBITDA
			EBITDA		587	585	608	572	2,567	2,564	2,589	2,552	2,432	2,441	2,489	2,321	2,519	2,514	2,633	2,301
			Incidentals		0	0	0	0	-190	-190	-190	-191	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
			Restructuring		32	30	57	15	125	123	150	108	105	103	120	70	93	98	110	68
			Lease-related expenses
			Depreciation right-of-use asset		-36	-35	-34	-41	-140	-139	-138	-145	-141	-141	-132	-150	-141	-141	-132	-150
			Interest lease liabilities		-8	-8	-7	-8	-30	-30	-29	-33	-30	-30	-23	-33	-30	-30	-18	-33
			Adjusted EBITDA after leases		575	571	610	562	2,331	2,325	2,368	2,318	2,366	2,368	2,424	2,269	2,440	2,440	2,559	2,229
			P&L items cont'd
			Depreciation
				239	241	260	220	968	970	989	949	957	953	1,000	900	940	941	1,020	840
			Amortization		139	138	148	132	551	550	560	544	532	543	572	400	526	540	572	390
			Total D&A		379	380	392	366	1,520	1,521	1,533	1,507	1,497	1,503	1,552	1,399	1,473	1,469	1,559	1,380
			Operating profit
				208	209	229	192	1,023	1,043	1,069	855	935	932	1,061	797	1,046	1,022	1,182	777
			Profit for the period
				75	86	133	6	568	612	658	197	512	522	588	399	618	622	738	405
			Earnings per share (non-diluted) from continuing operations (in €)
				0.02	0.02	0.03	0.00	0.14	0.15	0.16	0.05	0.12	0.12	0.16	0.09	0.15	0.15	0.19	0.10
			Dividend per share (in € cents) - Regular		7.8	8.3	9.2	0.0	12.0	12.5	13.4	4.2	12.8	13.2	14.4	4.4	13.7	13.9	16.2	4.6
			Dividend per share (in € cents) - Additional		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
			Dividend per share (in € cents) - Total		7.8	8.3	9.2	0.0	12.1	12.5	13.4	4.2	12.8	13.2	14.4	4.4	13.7	13.9	16.2	4.6
			Free cash flow
			EBITDA		587	585	608	572	2,567	2,564	2,589	2,552	2,432	2,441	2,489	2,321	2,519	2,514	2,633	2,301
			Interest received/(paid)		-64	-63	-47	-78	-330	-329	-313	-344	-286	-283	-259	-310	-270	-270	-235	-301
			Taxes received/(paid)		-10	-7	0	-27	-18	-15	-8	-35	-23	-25	0	-33	-29	-27	0	-100
			Change in provisions		8	0	33	-10	-25	-33	0	-43	-11	0	8	-50	-9	0	7	-30
			Change in working capital		95	96	130	35	-62	-61	-27	-122	-46	-41	0	-85	-24	-26	20	-52
			Other movements (incl. TEFD dividend)		-2	0	50	-37	-149	-146	-96	-187	-3	0	20	-50	-1	0	20	-25
			Net cash flow from operating activities		614	613	643	578	1,986	1,983	2,013	1,950	2,065	2,058	2,176	1,960	2,186	2,194	2,373	1,984
			Capex
				-308	-308	-300	-321	-1,101	-1,100	-1,092	-1,113	-1,100	-1,100	-1,084	-1,120	-1,103	-1,100	-1,079	-1,170
			Proceeds from real estate		1	0	10	0	1	0	10	0	1	0	10	0	1	0	10	0
			Repayment of lease liabilities		-35	-36	-27	-40	-148	-149	-140	-153	-149	-150	-132	-160	-149	-150	-136	-160
			FCF		272	272	293	243	737	737	757	710	817	799	928	728	935	949	1,120	748
			Telefónica Deutschland dividend		0	0	0	0	23	24	24	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
			FCF (excl. TEFD dividend)		272	272	293	243	714	714	733	700	817	799	928	728	935	949	1,120	748

Analyst consensus Q4 2019.xlsx

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