Saracen Mineral : Macquarie - Stepping up to the plate OUTPERFORM PT 4.40

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19 November 2019	Australia

EQUITIES

SAR AU				Outperform
Price (at 15:34, 18 Nov 2019 GMT)		A$3.39
Valuation			A$	2.60
- DCF (WACC 2.5%, beta 0.1, ERP 5.0%, RFR 2.2%)
12-month target			A$	4.40
12-month TSR			%	+31.4
Volatility Index					High
GICS sector				Materials
Market cap			A$m	2,824
30-day avg turnover			A$m	22.7
Number shares on issue		m	833.1
Investment fundamentals
Year end 30 Jun			2019A	2020E	2021E	2022E
Revenue		m	555.6	988.1	1,298.6	1,377.0
EBIT		m	130.9	309.9	446.8	479.7
Reported profit		m	92.5	211.1	301.3	330.2
Adjusted profit		m	93.4	211.1	301.3	330.2
Gross cashflow		m	181.7	380.9	486.4	517.8
CFPS		¢	21.9	34.0	43.4	46.2
CFPS growth		%	10.9	55.6	27.7	6.5
EPS adj		¢	11.2	18.8	26.9	29.5
EPS adj growth		%	39.9	67.7	42.7	9.6
PER adj		x	30.2	18.0	12.6	11.5
PER rel		x	1.53	1.04	0.84	0.86
Total DPS		¢	0.0	2.0	8.0	8.0
Total div yield		%	0.0	0.6	2.4	2.4
Franking		%	nmf	100	100	100
ROA		%	21.7	21.7	19.4	18.7
ROE		%	21.4	21.4	18.9	18.0
EV/EBITDA		x	12.1	7.5	5.7	5.4
Net debt/equity		%	-23.9	8.1	-6.1	-21.1

SAR AU rel Small Ordinaries performance, & rec history

Note: Recommendation timeline - if not a continuous line, then there was no Macquarie coverage at the time or there was an embargo period.

Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, November 2019 (all figures in AUD unless noted)

Analysts

Macquarie Securities (Australia) Limited

Ben Crowley [phone] [e-mail]

Hayden Bairstow [phone]

[e-mail]

Andrew Bowler [phone]

[e-mail]

Jon Scholtz [phone] [e-mail]

Brad Seward [phone] [e-mail]

Saracen Mineral Holdings (SAR AU)

Stepping up to the plate

Key points

• SAR has entered a binding agreement to acquire ABX's half of the Super Pit in Western Australia for US$750m.
• In our view the extension of SAR's production growth trajectory out to FY25 will be a key catalyst to SAR's continued share price appreciation.
• With inclusion into the ASX 100 now likely we believe SAR could also see a positive re-rate of its NAV premium in line with other ASX 100 producers.

Event

• SAR has announced that it has entered into a binding agreement with Barrick Gold (ABX CN, Not Rated) to acquire a 50% interest in the Super Pit near Kalgoorlie, WA for US$750m. Newmont Goldcorp (NEM US, Not rated) will be SAR 50:50 JV partner and operator of the asset.

Impact

• Debt and equity funding for big scale asset: SAR will fund the acquisition with an A$398m equity raise (13% discount to last close) and A$400m of debt from a new A$500m facility. The Super Pit has reserves of 190Mt of ore (100% basis) at 1.2g/t for 7.3Moz and a ~13Mtpa processing capacity with a nominal reserve life of ~15 years. Over the previous 5 years the operation has averaged production of 662kozpa (100% basis) at an AISC of A$1,098/oz.
• Maintaining the growth trajectory: We see production growth as a key driver of SAR's share price. On our base case the Super Pit's return to full production in 2023 extends SAR's growth trajectory 2 years to nearly 800koz in FY25.
  Similarly, with inclusion into the ASX 100 now likely we believe SAR could see a positive re-rate of its NAV premium in line with other ASX 100 producers.

Earnings and target price revision

• The Super Pit acquisition funding adds ~32% additional equity dilution. Softer near-term group costs due to the impact of the wall slip at the Super Pit reduces EPS by 18%, 7% and 7% in FY20-22 with meaningful upgrades (13- 59%) in FY23-26. The NAV accretion of the acquisition slightly outweighs short-term CFPS reductions to lift our TP 2% to A$4.40/sh.

Price catalyst

• 12-monthprice target: A$4.40 based on a Blend of 50% 1.6x NAV and 50% 10x CFPS methodology.
• Catalyst: The updated outlook for the Super Pit, expected in December 2019, will be important to add clarity to the assets medium-term outlook.

Action and recommendation

• Maintain Outperform. A transformative transaction for SAR with the company's base case now exceeding +600kozpa from three Western Australian operations. With 7Moz in reserves and a nominal 15-year mine life the Super Pit adds production longevity to the SAR group as well as a growth trajectory that extends to FY25. Similarly, we value the asset as accretive on our 1.6x NAV assumption while we believe an inclusion into the ASX 100 could also drive a positive re-rate of the stock.

Please refer to page 10 for important disclosures and analyst certification, or on our website www.macquarie.com/research/disclosures.

Macquarie Research

Saracen Mineral Holdings (SAR AU)

Stepping up to the plate

• SAR has announced that it has entered into a binding agreement with Barrick Gold (ABX CN, Not Rated) to acquire a 50% interest in the Kalgoorlie Consolidated Gold Mines Joint Venture (KCGM JV) for US$750m. The KCGM JV owns and operates the Super Pit gold mine in Kalgoorlie Western Australia with Newmont Goldcorp (NEM US, Not rated) to be SAR 50:50 JV partner and operator of the asset. SAR expects the acquisition (pending WA Ministerial approval) to be complete in late November/early December.
• We note that while NEM is the current operator of the asset, 50:50 JV management may be reinstated after a 6-month notice period which can occur after 1 May 2020.

Debt and equity funding blend

• SAR will fund the acquisition with a blend of equity and debt. Equity will be sourced from a A$369m underwritten institutional placement and a A$427m accelerated non-renounceable entitlement offer representing ~32.4% of SAR existing share capital. The raising price of A$2.95/sh is a 13% discount to SAR last trade price of A$3.39/sh.

Fig 1 SAR will issue ~32% more scrip at a 13% discount to the latest close

Fig 2 SAR's proposed funding breakdown. *US$/A$=0.68

(m)

1,200

Existing shares (m)

New shares (m) Issue price (A$/sh)

Existing options and rights (m)

(A$/sh)

Previous close (A$/sh)1400 4.00

Equity placement		Equity entitlement offer		Debt draw

1,000

3.50

1200

800

600

400

200

0

3.00 1000

2.50800

2.00600

1.50

400

1.00

200

0.50

0

0.00

Funding (A$m)

Aqusition price (A$m)*

Source: SAR, Macquarie Research, November 2019		Source: SAR, Macquarie Research, November 2019

• The balance will be funded from A$400m of debt derived from an A$500m senior secured facility. The A$500m facility consists of an A$450m term facility (maturity of 31 Dec 2022), a 3-year A$45m revolving corporate facility and A$5m contingent instrument facility. SAR expects pro forma net debt to be ~A$204m following the transaction while we model net debt of ~A$177m at 2QFY20 end following Carosue Dam's and Thunderbox's cash flows as well as ~1 month of contribution from the Super Pit.

Super pit brings super scale

• The Super Pit has reserves of 190Mt of ore (100% basis) at 1.2g/t for 7.3Moz with resources of 270Mt at 1.3g/t for 11.7Moz. The processing facility has a ~13Mtpa processing capacity leading to a nominal reserve life of ~15 years. Over the previous 5 years the operation has averaged production of 662kozpa (100% basis) at an AISC of A$1,098/oz.

Modest mid-term outlook due to 2018 pit wall failure

• The super pit produced 490koz (100% basis) at an AISC of A$1,470 in FY19 following the impact from the east wall pit failure that occurred in May 2018. The pit failure cut access to the Y-ramp affecting pit access as well as creating an exclusion zone that encompasses high-grade material.

19 November 2019

2

Macquarie Research

Saracen Mineral Holdings (SAR AU)

Fig 3 The east wall pit failure showing remediation areas and current exclusion zone

Source: SAR, November 2019

• The pit failure has subsequently resulted in reduced mining volumes, bench widths and grades which has driven stockpile feed to the mill to grow from 0% to 44%. SAR expects FY20 production and costs to be similar to FY19 which we believe is likely a result of the ongoing corporate approvals for the failure's remediation work which will likely affect the outlook.

More precise outlook expected shortly

• SAR noted on the conference call that it expected the east wall failure remediation work to take ~3.5 years to complete. SAR's view is that production and costs over this remediation period are likely to be similar to the constrained outcomes of FY19 of with ~490koz (100% basis) at an AISC of A$1,470.
• Saracen also commented that it expects the operation to return to a run-rate broadly similar to the 4 years preceding the slip which averaged 705kozpa at A$1,034/oz. NEM is expected to provide a longer- term outlook for the Super pit in December 2019.

Short-term mundane for long-term gain

• Our outlook for the Super Pit is based on SAR's comments on the conference call (see previous section) which outlined broadly flat YoY production and costs over the next 3 years followed by a return to the ~700kozpa (100% basis) at ~A$1,050/oz seen in the years preceding the slip. Post the depletion of the in-situ stocks in FY26 we then model a reduced production rate with higher AISC which reflects lower-grade stockpile processing and adjustments for general inflation.
• With SAR noting that it expects the transaction to complete in late November/early December 2019 we model a full 2HFY20 contribution from the Super Pit as well as December 2019 in 2QFY19.

19 November 2019

3

Macquarie Research

Saracen Mineral Holdings (SAR AU)

Fig 4 Our outlook is based on SAR's commentary and the existing reserves including stockpiles

(koz)	Super pit production (SAR share) (koz)	AISC (A$/oz)	(A$/oz)
400			2,500
350
300					2,000
250					1,500
200
150					1,000
100					500
50
0					0
	2020e 2021e 2022e 2023e 2024e 2025e 2026e 2027e 2028e 2029e 2030e 2031e 2032e 2033e 2034e

Source: Macquarie Research, November 2019

• We assume a mining inventory for the Super Pit (SAR share) that is broadly in line with the latest NI 43- 101 reserve (96.3Mt at 1.18g/t for 3.7Moz) from December 2018 while adjusting for modest depletions over CY19. We note that of this reserve ~70% of the tonnes and 45% of the ounces are from stockpiles of 67.3Mt at 0.77g/t for 1.7Moz of gold.

Fig 5 Attributable (50%) Reserves vs Macq inventory on a tonne basis

80		(Mt)		(Mt)		(g/t)							(g/t)	3.00
70																									2.50
60
																								2.00
50
40																									1.50
30																									1.00
20
10																									0.50
0																									0.00
	In Situ (OP &	Stockpiles	In Situ open		Stockpiles	Mt Charlotte
			UG)						pit					UG
					Reserves						Macq inventory

Fig 6 Attributable (50%) Reserves vs Macq inventory on a ounce basis

2.5		(Moz)		(koz)		(g/t)				(g/t)	3.00
2																										2.50
1.5																										2.00
																										1.50
1
																										1.00
0.5																										0.50
0																										0.00
	In Situ (OP &	Stockpiles	In Situ open	Stockpiles		Mt Charlotte
		UG)							pit						UG
				Reserves						Macq inventory

Source: SAR, Macquarie Research, November 2019		Source: SAR, Macquarie Research, November 2019

• While our mining inventory assumes the same tonnes and ounces as the Dec-2018 reserve estimate we have split out a notional inventory for the Mt Charlotte underground mine of 2Mt (50% basis) at 2.8g/t, for an underground mine life of ~2.5 years.

19 November 2019

4

Macquarie Research

Saracen Mineral Holdings (SAR AU)

Fig 7 Super Pit processing feed by tonnes (SAR share)	Fig 8 Super Pit processing feed by ounces (SAR share)
(Mt)	Open pit (Mt)	Underground (Mt)	(g/t)	(koz)	Open pit (koz)	Underground (koz)	(g/t)
7.0	Stockpiles (Mt)	Feed grade (g/t)	2.50	450.0	Stockpiles (koz)	Feed grade (g/t)	2.50
6.0				400.0
			2.00	350.0			2.00
5.0
			1.50	300.0
4.0			250.0			1.50
3.0			1.00	200.0			1.00
2.0				150.0
1.0			0.50	100.0			0.50
				50.0
0.0			0.00	0.0			0.00

Source: SAR, Macquarie Research, November 2019		Source: SAR, Macquarie Research, November 2019

• Our processing feed outlook assumes flat open-pit mining rates and grades over the next 3 years with improved grade and volumes towards the end of the pit failure remediation schedule. Over this time, we assume ~41% of the processing feed to come from stockpiles and ~9% from the Mt Charlotte underground. We assume a flat recovery rate of 84% in line with historic performance.

Extending the growth trajectory

• We believe SAR's ability to maintain a positive production growth trajectory has been a key factor in
  SAR's strong share price performance over recent years. The Super Pit acquisition adds an additional 3 years of mine life to SAR's production outlook while also adding close to 300kozpa to production on average over the next 5 years.

Fig 9 The super pit extends SAR production growth trajectory out to FY25

				Carosue and Thunderbox production (koz)		Super Pit (koz)		AISC (A$/oz)
(koz)							(A$/oz)
900										2000
800										1800
700										1600
600										1400
500										1200
									1000
400
									800
300
									600
200
							400
100										200
0										0

Source: SAR, Macquarie Research, November 2019.

• More importantly, the Super Pit's return to full production in mid-2023 aligns with our expectation of maximum gold output from Carosue Dam and Thunderbox. On our base case this extends SAR's production growth trajectory out to FY25 peaking at nearly 800kozpa in that year. We expect this extended growth outlook to be a key enabler in SAR's continued share price performance while noting that the updated super pit outlook (expected shortly) will add more certainty to this growth trajectory.

19 November 2019

5

Macquarie Research

Saracen Mineral Holdings (SAR AU)

Fig 10 The super pit gives SAR production out to 2033

(koz)

900

800

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

			SAR share of production (koz) - New		SAR share of production (koz) - Old	(A$/oz)
			SAR AISC (koz) - New		SAR AISC (koz) - Old			3,000
			Macq gold price (A$/oz)					2,500
								2,000
								1,500
								1,000
								500
									0

2020e 2021e 2022e 2023e 2024e 2025e 2026e 2027e 2028e 2029e 2030e 2031e 2032e 2033e

Source: SAR, Macquarie Research, November 2019

A fair price looks cheap on a NAV multiple basis

• Our DCF valuation values the Super Pit at A$1,033m, in line with the A$1,100m SAR paid at a US$/A$ 0.68 exchange rate. SAR noted on the call that it plans to secure FX hedging over the coming days to secure the A$ value of the transaction.
• However, using our valuation methodology of a 1.6x NAV (50% of our target price) for the ASX 200 producers under our coverage (SAR, Regis Resources (RRL AU, A$4.45, Outperform, TP: A$5.20) and St Barbara (SBM AU, A$2.54, Outperform, TP: A$3.30)) implies a A$1,652m valuation for the super pit as a part of SAR's portfolio. We note that SAR was trading at a P/NAV of ~1.23x pre-transaction.

Probable ASX 100 inclusion could drive NAV multiple upgrade

• Post the transaction we expect SAR to have a market capitalisation of +A$3.5bn making it likely that SAR will be promoted to the ASX 100 to join other gold miners Newcrest Mining (NCM AU, A$30.94, Underperform, TP: A$31.00), Evolution Mining (EVN AU, A$3.90, Outperform, TP: A$5.40) and Northern Star Resources (NST AU, A$9.04, Outperform, TP: A$15.00). Given ASX 100 producers typically receive a NAV premium we believe that ASX 100 inclusion could provide a strong base for SAR to receive a NAV multiple upgrade.

Earnings and price target revision

• We incorporate the Super Pit acquisition into our forecasts which brings ~32% additional equity dilution. Softer near-term group costs due to the impact of the wall slip at the Super Pit reduces EPS by 18%, 7% and 7% in FY20-22 with meaningful upgrades (13-59%) in FY23-26 as remediation work completes. The NAV accretion of the acquisition slightly outweighs short-term CFPS reductions (we use average of 3 forward looking years for our target price calculation) to lift our target price to 2% to A$4.40/sh. We maintain our Outperform recommendation.

Fig 11 The acquisition leads to short-term EPS downgrades with meaningful long-term EPS growth.

Y/E June	FY20e	FY21e	FY22e	FY23e	FY24e	FY25e	FY26e	FY27e	FY28e	FY29e	FY30ePrice target A$/sh)
EPS (Ac/sh) old	23.1	28.8	31.8	28.4	25.6	31.2	33.8	16.3	4.8	2.9	4.0	4.30
EPS (Ac/sh) - new	18.9	26.9	29.5	32.2	40.6	48.9	39.2	14.3	5.1	3.7	4.5	4.40
Change	(18%)	(7%)	(7%)	13%	59%	57%	16%	(12%)	6%	28%	14%	2%

Source: Macquarie Research, November 2019

19 November 2019

6

Macquarie Research

Saracen Mineral Holdings (SAR AU)

Fig 12 Carosue Dam annual gold production

Carosue Dam production (koz)		AISC (A $/oz)

300	(Koz)	(A$/oz)	1,600
250			1,400
			1,200
200			1,000
150			800
100			600
			400
50			200
0			0

Fig 13 Thunderbox annual gold production

	Thunderboxproduction (koz)	AISC (A $/oz)
180	(Koz)	(A$/oz)	1,800
160			1,600
140			1,400
120			1,200
100			1,000
80			800
60			600
40			400
20			200
0			0

Source: SAR, Macquarie Research, November 2019Source: SAR, Macquarie Research, November 2019

Fig 14 Super Pit annual outlook (SAR share)					Fig 15 SAR cash flow outlook
				Super pit production (SAR share) (koz)		AISC (A $/oz)
400			(koz)	(A$/oz)		2,500
350
300								2,000
250								1,500
200
150								1,000
100								500
50
0								0
Source: SAR, Macquarie Research, November 2019					Source: SAR, Macquarie Research, November 2019

Fig 16 SAR net cash vs market capitalisation

Net cash (A$M)		Market cap (A$m)

4000
3000
2000
1000
0
-100 0
-200 0
Jun 16	Jun 17	Jun 18	Jun 19	Jun 20	Jun 21	Jun 22	Jun 23	Jun 24	Jun 25

Source: SAR, Macquarie Research, November 2019

Fig 17 SAR NPV by project

Suoer Pit

37%Carosue Dam

35%

Thunderbox

28%

Source: SAR, Macquarie Research, November 2019

19 November 2019

7

Macquarie Research

Saracen Mineral Holdings (SAR AU)

Fig 18 SAR summary model

						Saracen Mineral Holdings
ASX: SAR		Price: (A$ps)	3.39								Year end:	Jun	Rating: Outperform	Up/dn		TSR
		Mkt cap: (A$m)	3,739								Diluted shares (m)	1102.9	Target:	4.40		30%	30%
ASSUMPTIONS		FY19	FY20e	FY21e	FY22e	FY23e	FY24e		ATTRIBUTABLE MINE OUTPUT		FY19	FY20e	FY21e	FY22e		FY23e
Exchange Rate	A$/US$	0.72	0.70	0.73	0.73	0.73	0.74		Gold production (equity)
Spot Gold	(US$/oz)	1,263	1,487	1,538	1,575	1,494	1,488		Carosue Dam		(koz)	199.7	204.5	245.1	257.9	257.9
Spot Gold	(A$/oz)	1,765	2,135	2,121	2,158	2,046	2,015		Thunderbox		(koz)	155.3	164.4	153.2	154.9	163.9
RATIO ANALYSIS		FY19	FY20e	FY21e	FY22e	FY23e	FY24e		Super Pit		(koz)	0.0	143.9	243.4	243.6	269.3
Diluted share capital	m	831.4	1,120.0	1,120.0	1,120.0	1,120.0	1,120.0		Total		(koz)	355.1	512.9	641.7	656.4	691.1
EPS (diluted and pre sig. items)	A¢	11.2	19.9	26.9	29.5	32.2	40.6		Cash costs
P/E	x	30.2x	17.0x	12.6x	11.5x	10.5x	8.4x		Carosue Dam		(A$/oz)	813	950	788	812	829
CFPS (Operating)	A¢	23.1	24.8	41.4	48.8	48.3	55.3		Thunderbox		(A$/oz)	864	725	933	1,015	1,123
P/CF	x	14.7x	13.7x	8.2x	6.9x	7.0x	6.1x		Super Pit		(A$/oz)		823	1,127	1,169	957
DPS	A¢	0.0	2.0	8.0	8.0	10.0	12.0		Cash costs		(A$/oz)	835	842	951	993	948
Dividend yield	%	0.0%	0.6%	2.4%	2.4%	2.9%	3.5%		AISC Cash Costs
Franking Level	%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%		Carosue Dam		(A$/oz)	1,119	1,243	1,027	1,056	1,051
Book value per share	x	0.59	1.32	1.53	1.75	1.98	2.28		Thunderbox		(A$/oz)	1,005	917	1,056	1,099	1,142
P/Book value	x	5.7x	2.6x	2.2x	1.9x	1.7x	1.5x		Super Pit		(A$/oz)		1,516	1,586	1,630	1,380
R.O.E. (pre sig items)	%	19%	14%	18%	17%	16%	18%		AISC Cash Costs	(A$/oz)	1,069	1,215	1,246	1,279	1,201
R.O.A. (pre sig items)	%	19%	14%	18%	18%	20%	22%		Operational EBITDA Contribution (pre hedging)
Interest Cover	x	-91.1x	37.0x	27.2x	60.3x	-115.5x	-24.8x		Carosue Dam		A$m	165	231	307	325	293
EBITDA per share	A$ps	0.26	0.41	0.56	0.59	0.62	0.72		Thunderbox		A$m	119	220	174	169	143
EW/EBITDA	x	16.6x	8.5x	5.8x	5.0x	4.4x	3.3x		Super Pit		A$m	0	370	457	455	559
FCF Yield	%	1%	-27%	8%	11%	10%	12%
EARNINGS		FY19	FY20e	FY21e	FY22e	FY23e	FY24e
Sales Revenue	A$m	556	988	1,299	1,377	1,411	1,554
Other Revenue	A$m	0	0	0	0	0	0
Total Revenue	A$m	556	988	1299	1377	1411	1554
Operating Costs	A$m	(316)	(493)	(652)	(695)	(699)	(727)		OPERATIONAL OUTLOOK
Operational EBITDA	A$m	240	495	646	682	713	827	900	(koz)						(A$/oz)		2,500
Exploration Expense/Write-offs	A$m	(0)	(25)	(3)	(3)	(3)	(3)
				Carosue Dam (koz)		Thunderbox (koz)
Corporate & Other Costs	A$m	(21)	(15)	(14)	(15)	(15)	(15)	800			Super Pit (koz)		AISC (A$/oz)
		Gold (A$/oz)
EBITDA	A$m	219	455	629	664	695	809
											2,000
D&A	A$m	(88)	(145)	(182)	(184)	(184)	(184)	700
EBIT	A$m	131	310	447	480	510	624	600
Net Interest	A$m	1	(8)	(16)	(8)	4	25
											1,500
Profit Before Tax	A$m	132	302	430	472	515	650	500
Tax Expense	A$m	(39)	(90)	(129)	(142)	(154)	(195)	400
Minorities	A$m	0	0	0	0	0	0										1,000
Adjusted NPAT	A$m	93	211	301	330	360	455	300
Significant Items (post tax)	A$m	(1)	0	0	0	0	0	200
Reported NPAT	A$m	92	211	301	330	360	455										500
								100
CASHFLOW		FY19	FY20e	FY21e	FY22e	FY23e	FY24e	0		FY17a	FY18a FY19 FY20e FY21e FY22e FY23e	FY24e	FY25e		0
Net Profit	A$m	92	211	301	330	360	455
Interest/Tax/D&A	A$m	80	119	179	181	181	181		RESERVES AND RESOURCES (ATTRIBUTABLE)
Working Capital/other	A$m	20	(53)	(16)	36	(1)	(16)		Reserves
Net Operating Cashflow	A$m	192	277	464	547	541	620		Project					Mt	g/t		koz
Capex	A$m	(161)	(193)	(173)	(151)	(154)	(158)		Carosue Dam					23.6	2.4	1,796
Investments	A$m	(11)	(1,097)	0	0	0	0		Thunderbox					27.8	1.8	1,537
Sale of PPE and Other	A$m	(1)	0	0	0	0	0		Super Pit (SAR share)				96.3	1.2	3,650
Free cash flow	A$m	19	(1,013)	291	396	387	461		Total				147.7	1.5	6,983
Dividends Paid	A$m	0	0	(66)	(88)	(99)	(121)		Resources				EV/Reserve (A$/oz)	553
Debt	A$m	(0)	400	(0)	(0)	(401)	0		Project					Mt	g/t		koz
Equity Issuance	A$m	0	776	0	0	0	0		Carosue Dam					82.0	2.0	5275.2
Other	A$m	0	0	0	0	0	0		Thunderbox					81.9	1.7	4,469
Net Financing Cashflow	A$m	(0)	1,176	(66)	(88)	(500)	(121)		Super Pit (SAR share)			136.5	1.3	5830.0
Net change in cash	A$m	19	163	225	307	(114)	340		Total				300.4	1.6	######
															EV/Resource (A$/oz)	248
									EQUITY DCF VALUATION		Macquarie forecasts	Spot prices
BALANCE SHEET		FY19	FY20e	FY21e	FY22e	FY23e	FY24e		Projects				A$m	A$ps	A$m		A$ps
Cash	A$m	119	282	506	814	700	1,040		Carosue Dam				1,033	0.92	1,180	1.05
PP&E & Mine DEWelopment	A$m	370	1,545	1,536	1,503	1,472	1,446		Thunderbox				808	0.72	914	0.82
Exploration	A$m	103	128	131	134	137	140		Super Pit				1,080	0.96	1,304	1.16
Total Assets	A$m	681	2,176	2,427	2,708	2,571	2,888		Undeveloped Resources			462	0.41	750	0.67
Debt	A$m	1	402	401	401	0	0		Unpaid capital/Other			0	0.00	0	0.00
Total Liabilities	A$m	187	696	711	751	353	337		Forwards				(170)	(0.15)	(205)	(0.18)
Total Net Assets / Equity	A$m	493	1,480	1,715	1,957	2,219	2,552		Corporate				(121)	(0.11)	(121)	(0.11)
Net Debt / (Cash)	A$m	(118)	120	(105)	(413)	(700)	(1,040)		Net cash (debt)			(177)	(0.16)	(48)	(0.04)
Gearing (net debt/(nd + equity))	%	(31%)	7%	(7%)	(27%)	(46%)	(69%)		Net Equity Value (@ 2.5% WACC Real)		2,914	2.60	3,774	3.37
Gearing (net debt/equity)	%	(24%)	8%	(6%)	(21%)	(32%)	(41%)		Price Target (50% 1.6 x NAV, 50% 10x CFPS)		4.40
									P/NAV					1.30x

Source: SAR, Macquarie Research, November 2019

19 November 2019

8

Macquarie Research

Saracen Mineral Holdings (SAR AU)

Macquarie Quant Alpha Model Views

The Quant View page below has been derived from models that are developed and maintained by Sales and Trading personnel at Macquarie. The models are not a product of the Macquarie Research Department.

The quant model currently holds a marginally positive view on Saracen Mineral Holdings. The strongest style exposure is Profitability, indicating this stock is efficiently converting investments to earnings; proxied by ratios like ROE or ROA. The weakest style exposure is Valuations, indicating this stock is over-priced in the market relative to its peers.

542/1592

Global rank in

Materials

% of BUY recommendations	50% (5/10)
Number of Price Target downgrades	1
Number of Price Target upgrades	4

				Attractive
Fundamentals
		Quant
	Local market rank	Global sector rank

Displays where the company's ranked based on the fundamental consensus Price Target and Macquarie's Quantitative Alpha model.

Two rankings: Local market (Australia & NZ) and Global sector (Materials)

Macquarie Alpha Model ranking

Factors driving the Alpha Model

A list of comparable companies and their Macquarie Alpha model score (higher is better).

For the comparable firms this chart shows the key underlying styles and their contribution to the current overall Alpha score.

Evolution Mining														Evolution Mining
				0.5
Saracen Mineral Holdings				0.3								Saracen Mineral Holdings
Regis Resources				0.3										Regis Resources
Northern Star Resources				0.2								Northern Star Resources
St Barbara														St Barbara
			-1.1
													-100%-80%	-60%-40%	-20% 0%	20% 40%	60% 80% 100%
-3.0	-2.0	-1.0	0.0	1.0	2.0	3.0
															Valuations			Growth		Profitability		Earnings			Price		Quality
																									Momentum			Momentum

Macquarie Earnings Sentiment Indicator

Drivers of Stock Return

The Macquarie Sentiment Indicator is an enhanced earnings revisions signal that favours analysts who have more timely and higher conviction revisions. Current score shown below.

Breakdown of 1 year total return (local currency) into returns from dividends, changes in forward earnings estimates and the resulting change in earnings multiple.

Evolution Mining					-0.1								Evolution Mining
									Saracen Mineral Holdings
Saracen Mineral Holdings
		0.3
Regis Resources													Regis Resources
					0.9
Northern Star Resources											Northern Star Resources
				-0.3
St Barbara					-0.4								St Barbara
												-70%	-50%	-30%	-10%		10%		30%	50%		70%
-3.0	-2.0	-1.0	0.0	1.0	2.0	3.0
														Dividend Return			Multiple Return			Earnings Outlook			1Yr Total Return

What drove this Company in the last 5 years

Which factor score has had the greatest correlation with the company's returns over the last 5 years.

				⇐ Negatives Positives	⇒
Price to Cash FY0
					26%
EV/EBITDA FY0
					24%
Price to Sales LTM
					20%
Operating Leverage NTM
				18%
CPS Growth FY1
		-26%
Sales Growth FY1
		-27%
Net Income Margin NTM
		-27%
3m Recom. Revisions
		-28%
-30%	-20%	-10%	0%	10%	20%	30%

How it looks on the Alpha model

A more granular view of the underlying style scores that drive the alpha (higher is better) and the percentile rank relative to the sector and market.

	Normalized		Percentile relative						Percentile relative
	Score		to sector(/1592)						to market(/352)
Alpha Model Score	0.32
Valuation	-0.37
Growth	0.59
Profitability	0.68
Earnings Momentum	0.35
Price Momentum	-0.37
Quality	0.37
Capital & Funding	-0.01
Liquidity	-0.75
Risk	-0.33
Technicals & Trading	0.11
	0	01			50		100	0	50				100
0															1

Source (all charts): FactSet, Thomson Reuters, and Macquarie Quant. For more details on the Macquarie Alpha model or for more customised analysis and screens, please contact the Macquarie Global Quantitative/Custom Products Group ([e-mail])

19 November 2019

9

Macquarie Research

Saracen Mineral Holdings (SAR AU)

Important disclosures:

Recommendation definitions

Macquarie - Asia, USA, Europe and Mazi Macquarie (SA):

Outperform - expected return >10%

Neutral - expected return from -10% to +10% Underperform - expected return <-10%

Macquarie - Australia/New Zealand

Outperform - expected return >10%

Neutral - expected return from 0% to 10%

Underperform - expected return <0%

Note: expected return is reflective of a Medium Volatility stock and should be assumed to adjust proportionately with volatility risk

Volatility index definition*

This is calculated from the volatility of historical price movements.

Very high-highestrisk - Stock should be expected to move up or down 60-100% in a year

• investors should be aware this stock is highly speculative.

High - stock should be expected to move up or down at least 40-60% in a year - investors should be aware this stock could be speculative.

Medium - stock should be expected to move up or down at least 30-40% in a year.

Low-medium - stock should be expected to move up or down at least 25-30% in a year.

Low - stock should be expected to move up or down at least 15-25% in a year.

* Applicable to select stocks in Asia/Australia/NZ

Recommendations - 12 months

Note: Quant recommendations may differ from Fundamental Analyst recommendations

Financial definitions

All "Adjusted" data items have had the following adjustments made:

Added back: goodwill amortisation, provision for catastrophe reserves, IFRS derivatives & hedging, IFRS impairments & IFRS interest expense Excluded: non recurring items, asset revals, property revals, appraisal value uplift, preference dividends & minority interests

EPS = adjusted net profit / efpowa*

ROA = adjusted ebit / average total assets

ROA Banks/Insurance = adjusted net profit /average total assets

ROE = adjusted net profit / average shareholders funds Gross cashflow = adjusted net profit + depreciation *equivalent fully paid ordinary weighted average number of shares

All Reported numbers for Australian/NZ listed stocks are modelled under IFRS (International Financial Reporting Standards).

Recommendation proportions - For quarter ending 30 September 2019

	AU/NZ	Asia	RSA	USA	EUR
Outperform	43.12%	58.72%	48.53%	52.06%	54.02%	(for global coverage by Macquarie, 3.09% of stocks followed are investment banking clients)
Neutral	39.49%	28.86%	41.18%	44.19%	37.50%	(for global coverage by Macquarie, 3.35% of stocks followed are investment banking clients)
Underperform	17.39%	12.42%	10.29%	3.75%	8.48%	(for global coverage by Macquarie, 3.08% of stocks followed are investment banking clients)

Company-specific disclosures:

Important disclosure information regarding the subject companies covered in this report is available publicly at www.macquarie.com/research/disclosures. Clients receiving this report can additionally access previous recommendations (from the year prior to publication of this report) issued by this report's author at https://www.macquarieinsights.com.

Date	Stock Code (BBG code)	Recommendation	Target Price
12-Sep-2019	SAR AU	Outperform	A$4.30
05-Aug-2019	SAR AU	Underperform	A$3.30
22-Jul-2019	SAR AU	Underperform	A$3.50
09-Jul-2019	SAR AU	Neutral	A$3.80
18-Jan-2019	SAR AU	Outperform	A$3.30
04-Jan-2019	SAR AU	Neutral	A$3.10
27-Nov-2018	SAR AU	Neutral	A$2.60
16-Oct-2018	SAR AU	Outperform	A$2.50
25-Sep-2018	SAR AU	Outperform	A$2.10
31-Jul-2018	SAR AU	Outperform	A$2.20
17-Jul-2018	SAR AU	Neutral	A$2.20
26-Jun-2018	SAR AU	Neutral	A$2.10
17-Apr-2018	SAR AU	Outperform	A$2.00
15-Feb-2018	SAR AU	Outperform	A$1.90
06-Jan-2018	SAR AU	Neutral	A$1.90
01-Dec-2017	SAR AU	Outperform	A$1.80
23-Oct-2017	SAR AU	Outperform	A$1.60
10-Oct-2017	SAR AU	Outperform	A$1.50
08-Sep-2017	SAR AU	Neutral	A$1.50
02-Aug-2017	SAR AU	Outperform	A$1.50
18-Jul-2017	SAR AU	Outperform	A$1.40
11-May-2017	SAR AU	Outperform	A$1.30
19-Apr-2017	SAR AU	Neutral	A$1.00
11-Jan-2017	SAR AU	Neutral	A$1.10
20-Dec-2016	SAR AU	Outperform	A$1.00

Sensitivity analysis:

Clients receiving this report can request access to a model which allows for further in-depth analysis of the assumptions used, and recommendations made, by the author relating to the subject companies covered. To request access please contact [e-mail].

Analyst certification:

We hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect our personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. The Analysts responsible for preparing this report receive compensation from Macquarie that is based upon various factors including Macquarie Group Ltd total revenues, a portion of which are generated by Macquarie Group's Investment Banking activities.

General disclaimers:

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19 November 2019

10

Macquarie Research

Saracen Mineral Holdings (SAR AU)

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