SENSEX BSE30 : Endogenous obstacles
Indian equities had already started a decline process at the beginning of July. Slower GDP growth to a 5-year low of 6.8%, plus high tensions in the Kashmir region, motivated investors to take positions on the Sensex.
As a result, the Bombay index fell by 7% over the sliding month, bringing the majority of components in its wake.
Only two values show positive monthly paths: Asian Paints at +15% and Sun Pharmaceutical at +13%.
To stimulate the economy, the central bank (RBI) has once again lowered its refinancing rate by 35 basis points to its lowest level in nine years to 5.4%.
Graphically, in daily data, prices reacted strongly to contact with historical highs around 40,250 points. Since then, the decline has been constant, stretching the consolidation phase below the support point of 37,120 points.
The downward orientation of moving averages further weakens the configuration. This would allow the prices to reach the lower target of 35,400 points. A sudden reversal beyond 38,600 points would be required to eliminate downside risks.
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