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BOND REPORT : Treasury Yields Climb As Global Stocks Bounce Higher On China Tariff-deadline Delay

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02/25/2019 | 04:11pm EDT

By Mark DeCambre, MarketWatch

Treasury prices fell Monday, pushing yields higher, as assets perceived as risky bounced on easing tensions in the U.S.-China tariff war.

What are yields doing?

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note added 1.8 basis points to 2.673%, and the two-year Treasury note yield climbed 2.1 basis points to 2.512%. The 30-year Treasury bond yield , meanwhile, picked up 1.1 basis points to 3.033%. Yields and debt prices move in opposite directions.

What's driving the market?

Appetite for the safety of government bonds edged back after President Donald Trump on Sunday said he would delay a planned increase in tariffs to 25% from 10% on $200 billion of Chinese goods, set to begin at 12:01 a.m. Eastern time March 2. Trump cited "substantial progress" (https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1099800961089003522) on the latest Sino-American trade negotiations, which have gone on for nearly a week and continued over the weekend. Upbeat developments between the world's two largest economies have helped to power a risk-on posture in markets, leading to healthy gains across the globe.

China's Shanghai Composite Index closed up 5.6% on Monday, its best daily gain in three years.

Fixed-income investors also digested some combined $81 billion of two- and five-year notes, with a health issuance tending to drive yields higher as investors absorb new paper.

What data are in focus?

Market participants will be closely watching consumer confidence and output figures this week, after many divergent numbers created a mixed picture on the strength of the world's largest economy. However, the main attraction likely will be Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's semiannual two-day testimony on Capitol Hill, starting Tuesday. The Fed boss is expecting to provide more clarity about the Federal Reserve's monetary plans and recent discussions about the central bank using an average inflation reading rather than relying on a finite 2% target, which could allow inflation to run above target at certain points. Fed Vice Chairman Richard Clarida on Friday discussed that possibility.

Under current policy, the Fed targets an inflation rate of 2% each year, regardless of what had occurred in the past.

What are strategist saying?

"Clarida spoke on Friday about changes to the framework for monetary policy that the Fed is considering, including average inflation targeting," said Thomas Simons, senior market economist at Jefferies.

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