UNITED FIRE GROUP, INC. The following Management's Discussion and Analysis should be read in conjunction with Part II, Item 6, "Selected Financial Data" and Part II, Item 8, "Financial Statements and Supplementary Data." Amounts (except per share amounts) are presented in thousands, unless otherwise noted.
FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS
It is important to note that our actual results could differ materially from those projected in any forward-looking statements in this Form 10-K. Please refer to "Forward-Looking Information" and Part I, Item 1A, "Risk Factors" of this report for information concerning factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements contained in this Form 10-K. BUSINESS OVERVIEW Originally founded in 1946 asUnited Fire & Casualty Company ,United Fire Group, Inc. and its consolidated insurance company subsidiaries provide insurance protection for individuals and businesses through several regional companies. Our property and casualty insurance company subsidiaries are licensed in 46 states plus theDistrict of Columbia and are represented by approximately 1,000 independent agencies. Discontinued Operations OnSeptember 18, 2017 , the Company signed a definitive agreement to sell its subsidiary, United Life, to Kuvare and onMarch 30, 2018 , the sale closed. As a result, our life insurance business, previously a separate segment, was considered held for sale and reported as discontinued operations in the Consolidated Financial Statements. All periods presented have been revised to show results from continuing and discontinued operations, unless otherwise noted. For more information, refer to Part II, Item 8, Note 17 "Discontinued Operations." Reportable Segments Prior to the announcement of the sale of our life insurance business, we have historically reported our operations in two business segments, each with a wide range of products:
• property and casualty insurance, which includes commercial lines insurance,
personal lines insurance and assumed reinsurance; and
• life insurance, which includes deferred and immediate annuities, universal
life products and traditional life (primarily single premium whole life)
insurance products.
We managed these businesses separately, as they generally do not share the same customer base, and each has different products, pricing, and expense structures.
Subsequent to the announcement of the sale of our life insurance business onSeptember 19, 2017 , we operate and report one business segment, which contains our continuing operations. Our life insurance business was considered held for sale and reported as discontinued operations throughout this Form 10-K, unless otherwise noted. For more information, refer to Part II, Item 8, Note 10 "Segment Information" and Note 17 "Discontinued Operations." Pooling Arrangement All of our property and casualty insurance subsidiaries are members of an intercompany reinsurance pooling arrangement. The Company's pooling arrangement permits the participating companies to rely on the capacity of the entire pool's capital and surplus, rather than being limited to policy exposures of a size commensurate with each participant's own surplus level. 28
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Geographic Concentration Continuing Operations - Property and Casualty Insurance Business For 2019, approximately 49.0 percent of our property and casualty statutory direct premiums written were written inTexas ,California ,Iowa ,Missouri andColorado . In 2019, 2018 and 2017 the direct statutory premiums written by our property and casualty insurance operations were distributed as follows: Years Ended December 31, % of Total (In Thousands) 2019 2018 2017 2019 2018 2017 Texas$ 205,420 $ 193,953 $ 178,314 18.0 % 17.4 % 16.7 % California 129,850 124,473 123,285 11.4 11.2 11.6 Iowa 96,052 98,128 100,826 8.4 8.8 9.5 Missouri 73,735 70,646 64,746 6.4 6.4 6.1 Colorado 54,907 56,152 53,981 4.8 5.1 5.1 New Jersey 51,539 52,037 49,305 4.5 4.7 4.6 Minnesota 47,890 49,491 50,432 4.2 4.4 4.7 Louisiana 46,827 44,007 39,849 4.1 4.0 3.7 Illinois 40,443 40,431 41,042 3.5 3.6 3.9 All Other States 396,709 382,385 363,427 34.7 34.4 34.1 Direct Statutory Premiums Written$ 1,143,372 $ 1,111,703 $ 1,065,207 100.0 % 100.0 % 100.0 % Discontinued Operations - Life Insurance Business Our life insurance subsidiary marketed its products primarily in the Midwest,East Coast and West. In 2019, 2018 and 2017 the direct statutory premiums written by our life insurance operations were distributed as follows: Years Ended December 31, % of Total (In Thousands) 2019 2018 2017 2019 2018 2017 Iowa $ -$ 9,951 $ 40,773 - % 31.3 % 32.5 % Wisconsin - 3,578 14,897 - 11.3 11.9 Illinois - 3,227 10,872 - 10.2 8.7 Nebraska - 2,572 10,197 - 8.1 8.1 Minnesota - 2,003 12,201 - 6.3 9.7 All Other States - 10,432 36,581 -
32.8 29.1
Direct Statutory Premiums Written $ -
Sources of Revenue and Expense
We evaluate profit or loss based upon operating and investment results. Profit
or loss described in the following sections of this Management's Discussion and
Analysis is reported on a pre-tax basis. Our primary sources of revenue are
premiums and investment income. Major categories of expenses include losses and
loss settlement expenses, underwriting and other operating expenses.
Profit Factors
Our profitability is influenced by many factors, including price, competition,
economic conditions, investment returns, interest rates, catastrophic events and
other natural disasters, man-made disasters, state regulations, court decisions,
and changes in the law. To manage these risks and uncertainties, we seek to
achieve consistent profitability through strong agency relationships,
exceptional customer service, fair and prompt claims handling,
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disciplined underwriting, superior loss control services, prudent management of our investments, appropriate matching of assets and liabilities, effective use of ceded reinsurance and effective and efficient use of technology. MEASUREMENT OF RESULTS Our consolidated financial statements are prepared on the basis of GAAP. We also prepare financial statements for each of our insurance company subsidiaries based on statutory accounting principles and file them with insurance regulatory authorities in the states where they do business. Management evaluates our operations by monitoring key measures of growth and profitability. We believe that disclosure of certain non-GAAP financial measures enhances investor understanding of our financial performance. The following provides further explanation of the key measures management uses to evaluate our results: Catastrophe losses is a commonly used non-GAAP financial measure which utilizes the designations of theInsurance Services Office ("ISO") and are reported with losses and loss settlement expense amounts net of reinsurance recoverables, unless specified otherwise. According to the ISO, a catastrophe loss is defined as a single unpredictable incident or series of closely related incidents that result in$25.0 million or more inU.S. industry-wide direct insured losses to property and that affect a significant number of insureds and insurers ("ISO catastrophe"). In addition to ISO catastrophes, we also include as catastrophes those events ("non-ISO catastrophes"), which may includeU.S. or international losses, that we believe are, or will be, material to our operations, either in amount or in number of claims made. Management, at times, may determine for comparison purposes of our financial results that it is more meaningful to exclude extraordinary catastrophe losses and resulting litigation. The frequency and severity of catastrophic losses we experience in any year affect our results of operations and financial position. In analyzing the underwriting performance of our property and casualty insurance business, we evaluate performance both including and excluding catastrophe losses. Portions of our catastrophe losses may be recoverable under our catastrophe reinsurance agreements. We include a discussion of the impact of catastrophes because we believe it is meaningful for investors to understand the variability in our periodic earnings. Years Ended December 31, (In Thousands) 2019 2018 2017
ISO catastrophes
(1) Includes international assumed losses.
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RESULTS OF OPERATIONS FOR THE YEARS ENDED
FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS
Years Ended December 31, % Change
2019 2018
(In Thousands) 2019 2018 2017 vs. 2018 vs. 2017
Revenues
Net premiums earned $ 1,086,972 $ 1,037,451 $ 997,492 4.8 % 4.0 %
Investment income, net of
investment expenses 60,414 52,894 51,190 14.2 3.3
Net realized investment gains
(losses)
Change in the value of equity
securities 51,231 (21,994 ) 332 NM NM
All other net realized gains 2,548 1,815 3,723 40.4 (51.2 )
Net realized investment gains
(losses) 53,779 (20,179 ) 4,055 NM NM
Total revenues $ 1,201,165 $ 1,070,166 $ 1,052,737 12.2 % 1.7 %
Benefits, losses and expenses
Losses and loss settlement
expenses $ 830,172 $ 731,611 $ 725,713 13.5 % 0.8 %
Amortization of deferred policy
acquisition costs 216,699 206,232 207,746 5.1 (0.7 )
Other underwriting expenses 137,415 141,473 103,628 (2.9 ) 36.5
Total benefits, losses and
expenses $ 1,184,286 $ 1,079,316 $ 1,037,087 9.7 % 4.1 %
Income (loss) from continuing operations before income taxes$ 16,879 $ (9,150 ) $ 15,650 NM (158.5 )% Federal income tax expense (benefit) 2,059 (11,405 ) (29,220 ) (118.1 )% (61.0 )% Net income from continuing operations$ 14,820 $ 2,255 $ 44,870 NM (95.0 )% Income (loss) from discontinued operations, net of tax - (1,912 ) 6,153 (100.0 )% (131.1 )% Gain on sale of discontinued operations, net of tax - 27,307 - (100.0 )% NM Net income$ 14,820 $ 27,650 $
51,023 (46.4 )% (45.8 )%
GAAP Ratios:
Net loss ratio (without
catastrophes) 70.5 % 66.0 % 65.4 % 6.8 % 0.9 %
Catastrophes - effect on net loss
ratio 5.9 % 4.5 % 7.4 % 31.1 % (39.2 )%
Net loss ratio(1) 76.4 % 70.5 % 72.8 % 8.4 % (3.2 )%
Expense ratio(2) 32.6 % 33.5 % 31.2 % (2.7 )% 7.4 %
Combined ratio(3) 109.0 % 104.0 % 104.0 % 4.8 % - %
NM = not meaningful
(1) The net loss ratio is calculated by dividing the sum of losses and loss
settlement expenses by net premiums earned. We use the net loss ratio as a
measure of the overall underwriting profitability of the insurance business we
write and to assess the adequacy of our pricing. Our net loss ratio is
meaningful in evaluating our financial results as reported in our Consolidated
Financial Statements.
(2) The expense ratio is calculated by dividing non-deferred underwriting
expenses and amortization of deferred policy acquisition costs by net premiums
earned. The expense ratio measures a company's operational efficiency in
producing, underwriting and administering its insurance business.
(3) The combined ratio is a commonly used financial measure of property and
casualty underwriting performance. A combined ratio below 100.0 percent
generally indicates a profitable book of business. The combined ratio is the sum
of the net loss ratio and the underwriting expense ratio.
In 2019, the increase in net income from continuing operations compared to 2018
was primarily due to an increase in the value of our investments in equity
securities from strong increases in equity markets and an increase in net
premiums earned, from rate increases, offset by an increase in losses and loss
settlement expenses from an increase
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in severity of commercial auto and auto liability losses, reserve strengthening
in our
In 2018, the decrease in net income from continuing operations compared to 2017
was due to the decrease in the fair value of equity securities and an increase
in other underwriting expenses partially offset by an increase in net premiums
earned. The decrease in the fair value of equity securities was the result of
volatile equity markets in the fourth quarter 2018. The increase in other
underwriting expenses was primarily due to our continued investment in our
multi-year Oasis project to upgrade our technology platform to enhance core
underwriting decisions, selection of risks and productivity. The increase in net
premiums earned was due to organic growth from a combination of new business,
geographical expansion and rate increases. In 2017, our net income benefited
from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act ("Tax Act"), which resulted in a tax benefit of
$21.9 million for the year.
Premiums from continuing operations
The following table shows our premiums written and earned from continuing
operations for 2019, 2018 and 2017:
% Change
(In Thousands) 2019 2018
Years ended December 31, 2019 2018 2017 vs. 2018 vs. 2017
Direct premiums written $ 1,143,372 $ 1,111,703 $ 1,065,207 2.8 % 4.4 %
Assumed premiums written 27,869 16,761 15,179 66.3 10.4
Ceded premiums written (74,511 ) (66,800 ) (61,273 )
11.5 9.0
Net premiums written(1)
3.3 % 4.2 % Less: change in unearned premiums (12,244 ) (27,527 ) (21,588 ) 55.5 (27.5 ) Less: change in prepaid reinsurance premiums 2,486 3,314 (33 ) (25.0 ) NM Net premiums earned$ 1,086,972 $ 1,037,451 $ 997,492 4.8 % 4.0 % NM = not meaningful (1) Net premiums written: Net premiums written is a non-GAAP measure. While not a substitute for any GAAP measure of performance, net premiums written is frequently used by industry analysts and other recognized reporting sources to facilitate comparisons of the performance of insurance companies. Net premiums written are the amount charged for insurance policy contracts issued and recognized on an annualized basis at the effective date of the policy. Management believes net premiums written are a meaningful measure for evaluating insurance company sales performance and geographical expansion efforts. Net premiums written for an insurance company consists of direct premiums written and reinsurance assumed, less reinsurance ceded. Net premiums earned is calculated on a pro rata basis over the terms of the respective policies. Unearned premium reserves are established for the portion of premiums written applicable to the unexpired term of insurance policy in force. The difference between net premiums earned and net premiums written is the change in unearned premiums and change in prepaid reinsurance premiums. Net Premiums Written Net premiums written comprise direct and assumed premiums written, less ceded premiums written. Direct premiums written are the total policy premiums, net of cancellations, associated with policies issued and underwritten by our property and casualty insurance business. Assumed premiums written are the total premiums associated with the insurance risk transferred to us by other insurance and reinsurance companies pursuant to reinsurance contracts. Ceded premiums written is the portion of direct premiums written that we cede to our reinsurers under our reinsurance contracts. Net premiums earned are recognized ratably over the life of a policy and differ from net premiums written, which are recognized on the effective date of the policy. Direct Premiums Written Direct premiums written from continuing operations increased$31.7 million in 2019 as compared to 2018 primarily due to rate increases, premium audits and endorsements. Direct premiums written from continuing operations increased$46.5 million in 2018 as compared to 2017 due to organic growth from a combination of new business and geographical expansion. 32
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Assumed Premiums Written Assumed premiums written increased$11.1 million in 2019 as compared to 2018 due to an increase in cedant premium growth and additional program placements. Assumed premiums written decreased$1.6 million in 2018 as compared to 2017 due to an increase in cedant premium growth. In 2018, we renewed our participation in all of our assumed programs. Ceded Premiums Written Direct and assumed premiums written are reduced by the ceded premiums that we pay to reinsurers. For 2019, we ceded 11.5 percent more premiums to reinsurers as a result of continued growth in direct premiums written, facultative reinsurance and addition of new managing general agency contracts. For 2018, we ceded 9.0 percent more premiums to reinsurers as a result of continued growth in direct premiums written. Losses and Loss Settlement Expenses from continuing operations Catastrophe Exposures Catastrophe losses are inherent risks of the property and casualty insurance business. Catastrophic events include, without limitation, hurricanes, tornadoes, earthquakes, hailstorms, wildfires, high winds, winter storms and other natural disasters, along with man-made exposures to losses resulting from, without limitation, acts of war, acts of terrorism and political instability. Such events result in insured losses that can be, and may continue to be, a material factor in our results of operations and financial position, as the extent of losses from a catastrophe is a function of both the total amount of insured exposure in an area affected by the event and the severity of the event. Because the level of insured losses that may occur in any one year cannot be accurately predicted, these losses contribute to fluctuations in our year-to-year results of operations and financial position. Some types of catastrophes are more likely to occur at certain times within the year than others, which adds an element of seasonality to our property and casualty insurance claims. Our property and casualty insurance business experiences some seasonality with regard to premiums written, which are generally highest in January and July and lowest during the fourth quarter. Losses and loss settlement expenses incurred tend to remain consistent throughout the year, with the exception of catastrophe losses, which generally are highest in the second and third quarters. The frequency and severity of catastrophic events are difficult to accurately predict in any year. However, some geographic locations are more susceptible to these events than others. We control our direct insurance exposures in regions that are prone to naturally occurring catastrophic events through a combination of geographic diversification, restrictions on the amount and location of new business production in such regions, and reinsurance. We regularly assess our concentration of risk exposures in natural catastrophe exposed areas. We have strategies and underwriting standards to manage these exposures through individual risk selection, subject to regulatory constraints, and through the purchase of catastrophe reinsurance coverage. We use catastrophe modeling and a risk concentration management tool to monitor and control our accumulations of potential losses in natural catastrophe exposed areas ofthe United States , such as the Gulf and East Coasts, as well as in areas of exposure in other countries where we are exposed to a portion of an insurer's underwriting risk under our assumed reinsurance contracts. Overall, the models indicate increased risk estimates for our exposure to hurricanes in theU.S. , but the impact of the models on our book of business varies significantly among the regions that we model for hurricanes. Based on our analysis, we have implemented more targeted underwriting and rate initiatives in some regions. We will continue to take underwriting actions and/or purchase additional reinsurance as necessary to reduce our exposure. Catastrophe modeling generally relies on multiple inputs based on experience, science, engineering and history, and the selection of those inputs requires a significant amount of judgment. The modeling results may also fail to account for risks that are outside the range of normal probability or are otherwise unforeseen. Because of this, actual results may differ materially from those derived from our modeling assumptions. 33
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Despite our efforts to manage our catastrophe exposure, the occurrence of one or more severe natural catastrophic events in heavily populated areas could have a material effect on our results of operations, financial condition or liquidity. The process of estimating and establishing reserves for losses incurred from catastrophic events is inherently uncertain and the actual ultimate cost of a claim, net of reinsurance recoveries, may vary materially from the estimated amount reserved. Although we reinsure a portion of our exposure, reinsurance may prove to be inadequate if a major catastrophic event exceeds our reinsurance limits or if we experience a number of small catastrophic events that individually fall below our reinsurance retention level. Catastrophe Losses In 2019, our pre-tax catastrophe losses were$64.4 million , an increase as compared to$46.7 million in 2018 and a decrease as compared to$74.0 million in 2017. In 2019, our catastrophe losses included 54 catastrophes with no one event more than$5.0 million . Catastrophe losses in 2019 added 5.9 percentage points to the combined ratio, which is below our historical 10-year average of 6.4 percentage points. In 2018, catastrophe losses included 46 catastrophes with our largest pre-tax catastrophe losses coming from theCalifornia wildfires, which totaled$9.2 million . Catastrophe losses in 2018 added 4.5 percentage points to the combined ratio, which is below our historical 10-year average of 6.4 percentage points. In 2017, catastrophe losses were primarily due to hurricanes (Harvey, Irma, Maria) in the third quarter and destructiveCalifornia wildfires in the second half of the year. In 2017, catastrophe losses included 50 catastrophes and our largest single pre-tax catastrophe loss totaled$9.0 million . Catastrophe losses in 2017 added 7.4 percentage points to the combined ratio. Catastrophe Reinsurance In 2019, 2018 and 2017, we did not exceed our catastrophe reinsurance retention level of$20.0 million per event. We use many reinsurers, both domestic and foreign, which helps us to avoid concentrations of credit risk associated with our reinsurance. All reinsurers we do business with must meet the following minimum criteria: capital and surplus of at least$300.0 million and anA.M. Best rating or an S&P rating of at least "A-." If a reinsurer is rated by both rating agencies, then both ratings must be at least an "A-." 34
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The following table represents the primary reinsurers we utilize and their
financial strength ratings as of
A.M. Best S&P Rating
Aspen Insurance UK Limited A A
A A+
Munich Re(2) A+ A-
Odyssey Re(2) A A-
Partner Re(1)(2) A+ A+
QBE Reinsurance Corporation (1) A A+
SCOR Reinsurance Company(1)(2) A+ AA-
Toa Re(1) A A+
Transatlantic Re(1) A+ A+
(1) Primary reinsurers participating in the property and casualty excess of loss
programs.
(2) Primary reinsurers participating in the surety excess of loss program.
Refer to Part II, Item 8, Note 4 "Reinsurance" for further discussion of our reinsurance programs. Terrorism Coverage InJanuary 2015 , TRIPRA, which extended the Terrorism Risk Insurance Program untilDecember 31, 2020 , gradually increased the coverage trigger for shared terrorism losses between the federal government and the insurance industry to$200 billion per year, and gradually increased the industry-wide retention to$37.5 billion per year. TRIPRA coverage includes most direct commercial lines of business, including coverage for losses from nuclear, biological and chemical exposures if coverage was afforded by an insurer, with exclusions for commercial automobile insurance, burglary and theft insurance, surety, professional liability insurance and farm owners multiple peril insurance. Under TRIPRA, each insurer has a deductible amount, which is 20.0 percent of the prior year's direct commercial lines earned premiums for the applicable lines of business, and retention of 15.0 percent above the deductible. No insurer that has met its deductible shall be liable for the payment of any portion of that amount that exceeds the annual aggregate loss cap specified in TRIPRA. TRIPRA provides marketplace stability. As a result, coverage for terrorist events in both the insurance and reinsurance markets is often available. The amount of aggregate losses necessary for an act of terrorism to be certified by theU.S. Secretary ofTreasury , the Secretary of State and the Attorney General was$100.0 million for 2019 and remains the same for 2020. Our TRIPRA deductible was$137.3 million for 2019 and our TRIPRA deductible is expected to be$140.4 million for 2020. Our catastrophe and non-catastrophe reinsurance programs provide limited coverage for terrorism exposure excluding nuclear, biological and chemical-related claims. 2019 Results In 2019, our losses and loss settlement expenses were 13.5 percent higher than 2018 and our net loss ratio increased 5.9 points. The increase is primarily driven by an increase in the severity of losses in commercial auto line of business, an increase in catastrophe losses and prior year reserve strengthening in ourGulf Coast region. With the escalation of commercial auto losses industry wide we plan to reduce the size of our commercial auto book in 2020. By reducing commercial auto unit counts in poor-performing segments and writing new classes of business that are not auto heavy, we intend to achieve a better balance across all lines of business in our portfolio. Catastrophe losses increased to$64.4 million in both our direct business and assumed reinsurance business as compared to$46.7 million in 2018. 2018 Results
In 2018, our losses and loss settlement expenses were 0.8 percent higher than 2017 and our net loss ratio decreased
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2.3 points. The decrease in our net loss ratio was due to a decrease in catastrophe losses slightly offset by a deterioration in our core loss ratio. Catastrophe losses decreased to$46.7 million in both our direct business and assumed reinsurance business as compared to$74.0 million in 2017. The deterioration in our core loss ratio was 0.6 percent, which was primarily driven by an increase in severity of losses in our other liability line of business from auto related bodily injury claims.
For many liability claims, significant periods of time, ranging up to several years, and for certain construction defect claims, more than a decade, may elapse between the occurrence of the loss, the reporting of the loss to us and the settlement or other disposition of the claim. As a result, loss experience in the more recent accident years for the long-tail liability coverages has limited statistical credibility in our reserving process because a relatively small proportion of losses in these accident years are reported claims and an even smaller proportion are paid losses. In addition, long-tail liability claims are more susceptible to litigation and can be significantly affected by changing contract interpretations and the legal environment. Consequently, the estimation of loss reserves for long-tail coverages is more complex and subject to a higher degree of variability. Reserves for these long-tail coverages represent a significant portion of our overall carried reserves. When establishing reserves and monitoring reserve adequacy, we analyze historical data and consider the potential impact of various loss development factors and trends including historical loss experience, legislative enactments, judicial decisions, legal developments in imposition of damages, experience with alternative dispute resolution, results of our medical bill review process and changes and trends in general economic conditions, including the effects of inflation. All of these factors influence our estimates of required reserves and for long-tail lines these factors can change over the course of the settlement of the claim. However, there is no precise method for evaluating the specific dollar impact of any individual factor on the development of reserves. Our reserving philosophy is to reserve claims to their ultimate expected loss amount as soon as practicable after information about a claim becomes available. This approach tends to produce, on average, prudently conservative case reserves, which we expect to result in some level of favorable development over the course of settlement. 2019 Development The property and casualty insurance business experienced$5.3 million of favorable development in our net reserves for prior accident years for the year endedDecember 31, 2019 . Four lines contributed favorable development with the largest contribution coming from workers' compensation, which had$37.3 million favorable development. The three other lines that experienced favorable development were fidelity and surety with$3.1 million favorable development, commercial fire and allied lines with$2.3 million favorable development, and personal automobile with$1.2 million favorable development. The favorable development for workers' compensation was primarily from reductions in reserves for reported claims which were more than sufficient to offset paid loss; loss adjustment expense ("LAE") also contributed favorable development with reductions in reserves more than sufficient to offset payments. Fidelity and surety loss developed favorably because reductions in claim reserves and salvage recoveries were more than sufficient to offset loss payments. Commercial fire and allied lines developed favorably due to paid LAE where reductions in reserves for unpaid LAE were more than sufficient to offset payments. Personal automobile developed favorably primarily due to paid LAE where reductions in reserves for unpaid LAE were more than sufficient to offset payments. Much of the favorable development was offset by unfavorable development from two lines with the largest contribution coming from commercial liability which experienced$35.0 million unfavorable development. The other line which experienced unfavorable development was commercial automobile with$3.4 million unfavorable development. Commercial liability experienced unfavorable development primarily due to paid loss which was greater than reductions in reserves for unpaid loss. Paid LAE also contributed to the unfavorable result in commercial liability. Commercial automobile experienced unfavorable development because paid loss was greater than reductions in reserves for unpaid loss, but a portion of the unfavorable loss development was offset by favorable development from LAE. On an all lines combined basis, favorable development is attributable to LAE which continues to benefit from additional litigation management efforts. The lines of business 36
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not mentioned individually above, contributed an additional total of
2018 Development
The property and casualty insurance business experienced$54.2 million of favorable development in our net reserves for prior accident years for the year endedDecember 31, 2018 . The majority of favorable development came from four lines, workers' compensation with$27.0 million favorable development, reinsurance assumed with$15.6 million favorable development, commercial automobile with$9.5 million favorable development, and fidelity and surety with$2.8 million favorable development. The only individual line with unfavorable development was commercial liability with$3.7 million of unfavorable development. Workers' compensation favorable development was primarily from reserve reductions for both reported claims and loss IBNR which were more than sufficient to offset paid loss with additional favorable development coming from LAE where the LAE IBNR reduction was more than sufficient to offset paid LAE which continues to benefit from additional litigation management efforts when compared to prior years. Reinsurance assumed favorable development is attributable reductions in reserves for both reported claims and loss IBNR as we reviewed our book of business and released excess reserves during 2018. Commercial automobile favorable development was driven by LAE where LAE IBNR reductions were more than sufficient to offset paid LAE. Fidelity and surety favorable development is attributable to reductions in reserves for both reported claims and loss IBNR which were more than sufficient to offset paid loss. Commercial liability adverse development is attributable to reserve strengthening for both reported claims and loss IBNR primarily in response to an increase in umbrella auto related claims while LAE developed favorably with reductions of LAE IBNR more than sufficient to offset paid LAE.
2017 Development
The property and casualty insurance business experienced$54.3 million of favorable development in our net reserves for prior accident years for the year endedDecember 31, 2017 . The majority of favorable development came from two lines, commercial liability with$35.1 million favorable development and workers' compensation with$19.2 million favorable development, partially offset by$6.3 million of unfavorable development for assumed reinsurance. All other lines combined$6.3 million favorable development with no single line experiencing more than$3.7 million of development, either favorable or unfavorable. Much of the favorable long-tail liability development continues to come from LAE and is attributed to our continued litigation management efforts. There was also a reduction in reserves for incurred but not reported claims because our long tail liability has experienced fewer late reported claims than what was initially anticipated. The favorable workers' compensation development is due to the combination of reductions in reserves for reported claims and reductions in reserves for incurred but not reported claims for both loss and LAE. Reserve development amounts can vary significantly from year-to-year depending on a number of factors, including the number of claims settled and the settlement terms, and are subject to reallocation between accident years and lines of business. 37
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Net Loss Ratios by Line
The following table depicts our net loss ratios for 2019, 2018 and 2017:
Years ended
December 31, 2019 2018 2017
Net Losses and Net Losses and Loss Net Losses and
Net Premiums Loss Settlement Net Premiums Settlement Expenses Net Premiums Loss Settlement
(In Thousands) Earned Expenses Incurred Net Loss Ratio Earned Incurred Net Loss Ratio Earned Expenses Incurred Net Loss Ratio
Commercial lines
Other liability $ 318,412 $ 205,695 64.6 % $ 311,931 $ 183,692 58.9 % $ 306,480 $ 121,054 39.5 %
Fire and allied
lines 244,010 185,033 75.8 234,612 165,097 70.4 227,711 178,768 78.5
Automobile 314,755 332,740 105.7 284,274 271,248 95.4 250,465 266,272 106.3
Workers'
compensation 87,376 25,784 29.5 95,203 57,601 60.5 104,166 71,053 68.2
Fidelity and
surety 25,539 240 0.9 24,437 1,878 7.7 24,981 2,206 8.8
Other 1,710 105 6.1 1,728 449 26.0 1,829 312 17.1
Total commercial
lines $ 991,802 $ 749,597 75.6 % $ 952,185 $ 679,965 71.4 % $ 915,632 $ 639,665 69.9 %
Personal lines
Fire and allied
lines $ 41,195 $ 40,783 99.0 % $ 41,581 $ 32,959 79.3 % $ 43,005 $ 34,503 80.2 %
Automobile 30,882 26,920 87.2 29,247 25,016 85.5 27,046 28,997 107.2
Other 1,232 132 10.7 1,210 (213 ) (17.6 ) 1,159 268 23.1
Total personal
lines $ 73,309 $ 67,835 92.5 % $ 72,038 $ 57,762 80.2 % $ 71,210 $ 63,768 89.5 %
Reinsurance
assumed $ 21,861 $ 12,740 58.3 % $ 13,228 $ (6,116 ) (46.2 )% $ 10,650 $ 22,280 209.2 %
Total $ 1,086,972 $ 830,172 76.4 % $ 1,037,451 $ 731,611 70.5 % $ 997,492 $ 725,713 72.8 %
NM=Not meaningful
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Commercial Lines The net loss ratio in our commercial lines of business, excluding assumed reinsurance, was 75.6 percent in 2019 compared to 71.4 percent in 2018 and 69.9 percent in 2017. The net loss ratio in 2019 increased compared to 2018 with a deterioration in commercial auto and other liability lines of business from an increase in severity of commercial auto losses and auto related bodily injury claims. Also contributing to the deterioration in 2019 compared to 2018, was an increase in commercial fire and allied lines of business due to an increase in catastrophe losses. The net loss ratio in 2018 increased slightly compared to 2017 with deterioration in other liability line of business from an increase in auto related bodily injury claims due to an adverse litigious environment. Other Liability Other liability is business insurance covering bodily injury and property damage arising from general business operations, accidents on the insured's premises and products manufactured or sold. Because of the long-tail nature of liability claims, significant periods of time, ranging up to several years, may elapse between the occurrence of the loss, the reporting of the loss to us and the settlement of the claim. In recent years, we began to use our loss control department more extensively in an attempt to return this line of business to a higher level of profitability. For example, our loss control department has representatives who make multiple visits each year to businesses and job sites to ensure safety. We also do not renew accounts that no longer meet our underwriting or pricing guidelines. We avoid accounts that have become too underpriced for the risk. Construction Defect Losses Incurred losses from construction defect claims were$19.4 million in 2019 compared to$15.9 million and$15.7 million in 2018 and 2017, respectively. AtDecember 31, 2019 , we had$60.4 million in construction defect loss and loss settlement expense reserves (excluding IBNR reserves which are calculated at the overall other liability commercial line), which consisted of 3,439 claims. In comparison, atDecember 31, 2018 , we had reserves of$44.5 million , excluding IBNR reserves, consisting of 2,706 claims. The increase in the incurred losses is due to continued improvement in the economic environment which increases construction activity. OurWest Coast region continue to be the origin of the majority of the construction defect claim activity. Construction defect claims generally relate to allegedly defective work performed in the construction of structures such as apartments, condominiums, single family dwellings or other housing, as well as the sale of defective building materials. Such claims seek recovery due to damage caused by alleged deficient construction techniques or workmanship. The reporting of such claims can be quite delayed due to an extended statute of limitations, sometimes up to ten years. Court decisions have expanded insurers' exposure to construction defect claims as well. Defense costs are also a part of the insured expenses covered by liability policies and can be significant, sometimes greater than the cost of the actual paid claims. We have exposure to construction defect liabilities inColorado and surrounding states. We have historically insured small- to medium-sized contractors in this geographic area. In an effort to limit the number of future claims from multi-unit buildings, we implemented policy exclusions in 2009, later revised in 2010, that exclude liability coverage for contractors performing "residential structural" operations on any building project with more than 12 units or on single family homes in any subdivision where the contractor is working on more than 15 homes. The exclusions do not apply to remodeling or repair of an existing structure. We also changed our underwriting guidelines to add a professional liability exclusion when contractors prepare their own design work or blueprints and implemented the multi-family exclusion and tract home building limitation form for the state ofColorado and our other western states as a means to reduce our exposure in future years. When offering commercial umbrella coverage for structural residential contractors, limits of liability are typically limited to a maximum of$2.0 million per occurrence. Requests to provide additional insured status for "developers" are declined. As a result of our acquisition ofMercer Insurance Group, Inc. in 2011, we added construction defect exposure in the states ofCalifornia ,Nevada andArizona .Mercer Insurance Group, Inc. has been writing in these states for more than 20 years. In order to minimize our exposure to construction defect claims in this region, we continually review 39
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the coverage we offer and our pricing models. In an effort to limit our exposure from residential multi-unit buildings, we started including condominium and townhouse construction policy exclusions in 2012 for our contracting policies in this region. For the majority of our residential contractors we limit the size of any tracts the contractor is working on to 25 homes or less and do not include a continuous trigger with our designated work exclusion. In a majority of the policies in our small service, repair and remodel contractors program, we have a favorable new residential construction exclusion. We also apply strict guidelines when additional insured forms are required and changed our underwriting guidelines to limit our exposure to large, multi-party construction defect claims. Commercial Fire and Allied Lines Commercial fire and allied lines include fire, allied lines, commercial multiple peril and inland marine. The insurance covers losses to an insured's property, including its contents, from weather, fire, theft or other causes. We provide this coverage through a variety of business policies. The net loss ratio deteriorated 5.4 percentage points in 2019 compared to 2018. The deterioration is attributable to an increase in catastrophe losses. Commercial Automobile Our commercial automobile insurance covers physical damage to an insured's vehicle, as well as liabilities to third parties. Automobile physical damage insurance covers loss or damage to vehicles from collision, vandalism, fire, theft, flood or other causes. Automobile liability insurance covers bodily injury, damage to property resulting from automobile accidents caused by the insured, uninsured or underinsured motorists and the legal costs of defending the insured against lawsuits. The net loss ratio deteriorated 10.3 percentage points in 2019 compared to 2018. The deterioration is attributable to an increase in severity of commercial auto losses. Workers' Compensation We consider our workers' compensation business to be a companion product; we rarely write stand-alone workers' compensation policies. Our workers' compensation insurance covers primarily small- to mid-size accounts. The net loss ratio improved 31.0 percentage points in 2019 compared to 2018. This improvement is attributable to the combination of three factors, decrease in reserves for newly reported claims which is due to fewer large claims in 2019, favorable prior year reserve development and a decrease in LAE reserves due to lower legal expenses. Although we have seen steady improvement in the net loss ratio for the last two years in our worker's compensation line of business, competitive market conditions continue putting downward pressure on rates. The challenges faced by workers' compensation insurance providers to attain profitability include the regulatory climates in some states that make it difficult to obtain appropriate premium rate increases and inflationary medical costs. Consequently, we have increased the utilization of our loss control unit in the analysis of current risks, with the intention of increasing the quality of our workers' compensation book of business. We are currently using these modeling analytics to assist us in risk selection, and we will continue to evaluate the model results. Fidelity and Surety Our surety products guarantee performance and payment by our bonded principals. Our contract bonds protect owners from failure to perform on the part of our principals. In addition, our surety bonds protect material suppliers and subcontractors from nonpayment by our contractors. When surety losses occur, our loss is determined by estimating the cost to complete the remaining work and to pay the contractor's unpaid bills, offset by contract funds due to the contractor, reinsurance, and the value of any collateral to which we may have access.
The net loss ratio improved 6.8 percentage points in 2019 compared to 2018. This improvement is attributable to the combination of fewer large claims and a decrease in LAE in 2019 vs. 2018.
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Personal Lines
Our personal lines consist primarily of fire and allied lines (including
homeowners) and automobile lines. The net loss ratio deteriorated 12.3
percentage points in 2019 compared to 2018. The deterioration is attributable to
our personal fire and allied line of business due to the combination of
increased in severity of losses and increased loss IBNR in 2019 vs. 2018 which
had a modest decrease in loss IBNR in 2018. The improvement in 2018 vs. 2017 was
primarily due to a decrease in frequency and severity of losses and loss IBNR.
For our personal lines, we use the CATography™ Underwriter tool, which gives us
the ability to determine whether the premium we charge for an exposure is
adequate in areas where hurricanes and earthquakes occur. We have also
implemented predictive analytics and data prefill for our personal automobile
line. Data prefill is a data accessing methodology that allows for a more
complete profile of our customers at the agent's point of sale during the
quotation process.
Assumed Reinsurance
Our assumed reinsurance is the business we choose to write by participating in
programs insuring insurance companies. Our net loss ratio increased slightly in
2019 compared to 2018. Premiums increased due to additional program placements
and cedant premium growth. In 2019 we added two additional assumed programs and
did not accept to renew one program from 2018.
Other Underwriting Expenses
Our underwriting expense ratio, which is a percentage of other underwriting
expenses over net premiums earned, was 32.6 percent, 33.5 percent and 31.2
percent for 2019, 2018, and 2017, respectively. The decrease in the expense
ratio during in 2019 as compared to 2018 is primarily due to lower employee
benefit accruals and expenses caused by post-retirement benefit plan amendments
made at the end of 2018. The underwriting expense ratio increased in 2018 as
compared to 2017 primarily due to our investment in our multi-year Oasis project
to upgrade our technology platform to enhance core underwriting decisions,
selection of risks and productivity.
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Discontinued Operations Results
Years Ended December 31, % Change
2019 2018
(In Thousands) 2019 2018 2017 vs. 2018 vs. 2017
Revenues
Net premiums earned $ - $ 13,003 $ 61,368 (100.0 )% (78.8 )%
Investment income, net - 12,663 49,720 (100.0 )% (74.5 )%
Net realized investment gains
(losses) - (1,057 ) 4,008 (100.0 )% (126.4 )%
Other income - 146 617 (100.0 )% (76.3 )%
Total revenues $ - $ 24,755 $ 115,713 (100.0 )% (78.6 )%
Benefits, Losses and Expenses
Losses and loss settlement
expenses $ - $ 10,823 $ 40,451 (100.0 )% (73.2 )%
Increase in liability for future
policy benefits - 5,023 27,632 (100.0 )% (81.8 )%
Amortization of deferred policy
acquisition costs - 1,895 5,181 (100.0 )% (63.4 )%
Other underwriting expenses - 3,864 13,281 (100.0 )% (70.9 )%
Interest on policyholders'
accounts - 4,499 18,525 (100.0 )% (75.7 )%
Total benefits, losses and
expenses $ - $ 26,104 $ 105,070 (100.0 )% (75.2 )%
Income (loss) before income
taxes $ - $ (1,349 ) $ 10,643 (100.0 )% (112.7 )%
The sale of our discontinued operations closed on March 30, 2018 , and therefore
income was only earned in the first quarter of 2018. For the year ended December
31, 2018 , our discontinued operations had a loss before income taxes of $1.3
million , compared to income before income taxes of $10.6 million for the same
period of 2017, respectively.
Federal Income Taxes
We reported a federal income tax expense on a consolidated basis of $2.1 million
or 12.2 percent of pre-tax income in 2019. In 2018, federal income tax benefit
on a consolidated basis of $3.3 million or 13.5 percent of pre-tax income and
federal income tax benefit on a consolidated basis of $24.7 million or 94.1
percent of pre-tax income in 2017. In 2017 our effective tax rate was impacted
by the Tax Act, which was enacted on December 22, 2017 . The Tax Act
significantly revised the U.S. corporate income tax laws including lowering the
U.S. federal corporate tax rate from 35 percent to 21 percent effective January
1, 2018 . Our effective federal tax rate varied from the statutory federal income
tax expense rate in each year, due primarily to our portfolio of tax-exempt
securities.
In December 2017 , the SEC staff issued Staff Accounting Bulletin No. 118, which
addresses how a company recognizes provisional amounts when a company does not
have the necessary information available, prepared or analyzed in reasonable
detail to complete its accounting for the effect of the changes in the Tax Act.
The measurement period ends when a company has obtained, prepared and analyzed
the information necessary to finalize its accounting, but cannot extend beyond
one year. As of December 31, 2018 we had completed accounting for the tax
effects of enactment of the Tax Act, and no adjustment was made during the
measurement period.
Due to our determination that we may not be able to fully realize the benefits
of the net operating loss ("NOL") acquired in the purchase of American Indemnity
Financial Corporation in 1999, which are only available to offset the future
taxable income of our property and casualty insurance operations and are further
limited as to the amount that can be utilized in any given year, we have
recorded a valuation allowance against these NOLs. Based on a yearly review, we
determine whether the benefit of the NOLs can be realized, and, if so, the
decrease in the valuation allowance is recorded as a reduction to current
federal income tax expense. If NOLs expire during the year, the decrease in the
valuation allowance is offset with a corresponding decrease to the deferred
income tax asset. The valuation allowance was reduced by $0.7 million in 2018
due to the realization of $3.1 million in NOLs, therefore reducing the valuation
allowance to zero. During 2018, the remaining NOL from the purchase of American
Indemnity Financial Corporation was fully realized.
As of December 31, 2019 , we had no alternative minimum tax credit carryforwards.
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Table of Contents INVESTMENTS Investment Environment The investment landscape was plagued by headwinds and uncertainty throughout all of 2019 both domestic and abroad. Risks included trading negotiations betweenU.S. andChina , the exit ofUnited Kingdom from theEuropean Union , known as "Brexit", negative yielding foreign sovereign debt, an inverted yield curve, manufacturing woes, and more. Despite these risks, theU.S. economy remained strong, aided by threeFederal Reserve rate cuts, to expand for the 11th straight year. Final economic numbers for 2019 showed an unemployment rate of 3.5 percent, a fifty-year low, strong consumer confidence, and slow but steady growth. All major asset classes managed strong annual returns.U.S. investment grade bonds finished up 8.7 percent due to the aforementioned uncertainty and rate cuts. This resulted in lowered yields and tighter spreads as compared to the beginning of the year, making an already difficult fixed income environment even more challenging. The S&P 500 returned 28.8 percent, its highest return since 2013, as investors sought returns and companies participated in share-repurchase programs. Overall, the fixed income market remains challenging with low yields expected to continue given theFederal Reserve's view of current rates as "appropriate" due to the current low inflation environment. The overall economy is expected to continue to produce slow, steady growth in 2020 with global recession risks beginning to ease. While the economic outlook is positive, downside risks still exist entering 2020. We believe our investment program is conservative in nature, and designed to outperform during periods of market uncertainty. Investment Philosophy The Company's assets are invested to preserve capital and maximize after-tax returns while maintaining an appropriate balance of risk. The return on our portfolio is an important component of overall financial results, but quality and safety of principal is the highest priority of our investment program. Our general investment philosophy is to purchase financial instruments with the expectation that we will hold them to their maturity. However, active management of our portfolio is considered necessary to appropriately manage risk, achieve portfolio objectives and maximize investment income as market conditions change. Each of our insurance company subsidiaries develops an appropriate investment strategy that aligns with its business needs and supportsUnited Fire's strategic plan and risk appetite. The portfolio is structured so as to be in compliance with state insurance laws that prescribe the quality, concentration and type of investments that may be made by insurance companies. All but a very small portion of our investment portfolio is managed internally. Investment Portfolio Our invested assets from continuing operations atDecember 31, 2019 totaled$2.2 billion , compared to$2.1 billion atDecember 31, 2018 , an increase of$81.0 million . AtDecember 31, 2019 , fixed maturity securities and equity securities comprised 80.5 percent and 13.9 percent of our investment portfolio, respectively. Because the primary purpose of the investment portfolio is to fund future claims payments, we utilize a conservative investment philosophy, investing in a diversified portfolio of high-quality, intermediate-term taxable corporate bonds, taxableU.S. government and government agency bonds and tax-exemptU.S. municipal bonds. Our overall investment strategy is to stay fully invested (i.e., minimize cash balances). If additional cash is needed we have an ability to borrow funds available under our revolving credit facility. Composition We develop our investment strategies based on a number of factors, including estimated duration of reserve liabilities, short- and long-term liquidity needs, projected tax status, general economic conditions, expected rates of inflation and regulatory requirements. We administer our investment portfolio based on investment guidelines approved by management and the investment committee of our Board of Directors that comply with applicable statutory regulations. 43
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The composition of our investment portfolio at
Percent
(In Thousands) of Total
Fixed maturities:
Available-for-sale $ 1,719,607 79.8 %
Trading securities 15,256 0.7
Equity securities 299,203 13.9
Mortgage loans 42,448 2.0
Other long-term investments 78,410 3.6
Short-term investments 175 -
Total $ 2,155,099 100.0 %
At December 31, 2019 , we classified $1.7 billion , or 99.1 percent, of our fixed
maturities portfolio as available-for-sale, compared to $1.7 billion , or 99.2
percent, at December 31, 2018 . Available-for-sale fixed maturity securities are
carried at fair value, with changes in fair value recognized as a component of
accumulated other comprehensive income in stockholders' equity. We record fixed
maturity trading securities, primarily convertible redeemable preferred debt
securities, and equity securities at fair value, with any changes in fair value
recognized in earnings.
As of
Credit Quality
The following table shows the composition of fixed maturity securities held in our available-for-sale and trading security portfolios by credit rating for both continuing and discontinued operations atDecember 31, 2019 and 2018. Information contained in the table is generally based upon the issue credit ratings provided by Moody's, unless the rating is unavailable, in which case we obtain it fromStandard & Poor's . (In Thousands) December 31, 2019 December 31, 2018 Rating Carrying Value % of Total Carrying Value % of Total AAA$ 721,446 41.6 %$ 734,471 41.7 % AA 664,238 38.3 684,863 38.9 A 179,553 10.3 178,282 10.1 Baa/BBB 157,350 9.1 157,349 8.9 Other/Not Rated 12,276 0.7 7,763 0.4$ 1,734,863 100.0 %$ 1,762,728 100.0 % Duration Our investment portfolio is invested primarily in fixed maturity securities whose fair value is susceptible to market risk, specifically interest rate changes. Duration is a measurement used to quantify our inherent interest rate risk and analyze our ability to match our invested assets to our reserve liabilities. If our invested assets and reserve liabilities have similar durations, then any change in interest rates will have an equal effect on these accounts. The primary purpose for matching invested assets and reserve liabilities is liquidity. With appropriate matching, our investments will mature when cash is needed, preventing the need to liquidate other assets prematurely. Mismatches in the duration of assets and liabilities can cause significant fluctuations in our results of operations. The weighted average effective duration of our portfolio of fixed maturity securities was 4.2 years atDecember 31, 2019 compared to 5.1 years atDecember 31, 2018 . The amortized cost and fair value of available-for-sale and trading fixed maturity securities atDecember 31, 2019 , by contractual maturity, are shown in the following table. Actual maturities may differ from contractual maturities 44
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because borrowers may have the right to call or prepay obligations with or
without call or prepayment penalties. Asset-backed securities, mortgage-backed
securities and collateralized mortgage obligations may be subject to prepayment
risk and are therefore not categorized by contractual maturity.
(In Thousands) Available-For-Sale Trading
Amortized Fair Amortized Fair
December 31, 2019 Cost Value Cost Value
Due in one year or less $ 56,316 $ 56,635 $ 2,464 $ 3,132
Due after one year through five years 286,426 293,956 6,967 8,586
Due after five years through 10 years 481,310 504,300 - -
Due after 10 years 556,850 580,907 2,510 3,538
Asset-backed securities 314 750 - -
Mortgage-backed securities 6,250 6,356 - -Collateralized mortgage obligations 272,294 276,703
- -
$ 1,659,760 $ 1,719,607 $ 11,941 $ 15,256
Investment Results
We invest the premiums received from our policyholders in order to generate
investment income, which is an important component of our revenues and
profitability. The amount of investment income that we are able to generate is
affected by many factors, some of which are beyond our control. Some of these
factors are volatility in the financial markets, economic growth, inflation,
changes in interest rates, world political conditions, terrorist attacks or
threats of terrorism, adverse events affecting other companies in our industry
or the industries in which we invest and other unpredictable national or world
events. Net investment income increased 14.2 percent in 2019, compared with the
same period of 2018, primarily due to an increase in the fair value of our
investments in limited liability partnerships resulting from the increase in the
equity markets and an increase in invested assets in 2019 compared to 2018. The
valuation of our investments in limited liability partnerships varies from
period to period due to current equity market conditions. We expect to maintain
our investment philosophy of purchasing quality investments rated investment
grade or better.
We regularly monitor the difference between our cost basis and the estimated
fair value of our investments. Our accounting policy for impairment recognition
requires other-than-temporary impairment charges to be recorded when we
determine that it is more likely than not that we will be unable to collect all
amounts due according to the contractual terms of the fixed maturity security or
that the anticipated recovery in fair value of the equity security will not
occur in a reasonable amount of time. Impairment charges on investments are
recorded based on the fair value of the investments at the measurement date or
based on the value calculated using a discounted cash flow model. Factors
considered in evaluating whether a decline in value is other-than-temporary
include: the length of time and the extent to which fair value has been less
than cost; the financial condition and near-term prospects of the issuer; our
intention to hold the investment; and the likelihood that we will be required to
sell the investment.
Changes in unrealized gains and losses on available-for-sale fixed-maturity
securities do not affect net income and earnings per share but do impact
comprehensive income, stockholders' equity and book value per share. We believe
that any unrealized losses on our available-for-sale fixed-maturity securities
at December 31, 2019 are temporary based upon our current analysis of the
issuers of the securities that we hold and current market conditions. It is
possible that we could recognize impairment charges in future periods on
securities that we own at December 31, 2019 if future events and information
cause us to determine that a decline in value is other-than-temporary. However,
we endeavor to invest in high quality assets to provide protection from future
credit quality issues and corresponding other-than-temporary impairment
write-downs.
Net Investment Income
In 2019, our investment income for continuing operations, net of investment
expenses, increased $7.5 million to $60.4 million as compared to 2018, primarily
due to an increase in the value of our investments in limited liability
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partnerships resulting from the increase in the equity markets and an increase in invested assets in 2019 compared to 2018. In 2018, our investment income for continuing operations, net of investment expenses, increased$1.7 million to$52.9 million as compared to 2017, primarily due to the increase in our invested assets in our portfolio, partially offset by a decrease in the value of our investments in limited liability partnerships in the fourth quarter, specifically related to financial institutions. The following table summarizes the components of net investment income: (In Thousands) Years Ended December 31, 2019 2018
2017
Investment income from continuing operations: Interest on fixed maturities$ 50,274 $ 51,356 $ 44,784 Dividends on equity securities 7,842 7,731
7,108
Income on other long-term investments Interest 3,115 8,383 6,870 Change in value (1) 1,114 (10,116 ) (2,812 ) Interest on mortgage loans 1,595 412 - Interest on short-term investments 522 606
120
Interest on cash and cash equivalents 2,681 1,875
1,125
Other 252 307
300
Total investment income from continuing operations
6,981 7,660 6,305
Net investment income from continuing operations
49,720 Net investment income$ 60,414 $ 65,557 $ 100,910
(1) Represents the change in value of our interests in limited liability
partnerships that are recorded on the equity method of accounting.
In 2019, 74.6 percent of our gross investment income from continuing operations
originated from interest on fixed maturities, compared to 84.8 percent and 77.9
percent in 2018 and 2017, respectively.
The following table details our annualized yield on average invested assets from
continuing operations for 2019 and 2018, and both continuing and discontinued
operations for 2017, which is based on our invested assets (including money
market accounts) at the beginning and end of the year divided by net investment
income:
(In Thousands)
Average Investment Annualized Yield on
Years ended December 31, Invested Assets Income, Net Average Invested Assets
2019 $ 2,120,916 $ 60,414 2.8 %
2018 1,986,239 52,894 2.7 %
2017 3,333,809 100,910 3.0 %
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Net Realized Investment Gains and Losses The following table summarizes the components of our net realized investment gains or losses: (In Thousands) Years Ended December 31, 2019 2018 2017 Net realized investment gains (losses) from continuing operations: Fixed maturities: Available-for-sale$ 655 $ (254 ) $ 829 Trading securities Change in fair value 1,351 (296 ) 924 Sales 1,993 1,226 244 Equity securities Change in fair value 51,231 (21,994 ) 332 Sales 725 1,702 1,610 Mortgage loans (26 ) (46 ) - Real Estate (2,150 ) (517 )$ 116 Total net realized investment gains from continuing operations$ 53,779 $ (20,179 ) $ 4,055 Total net realized investment gains from discontinued operations - (1,057 )
4,008
Total net realized investment gains
Net Unrealized Investment Gains and Losses As ofDecember 31, 2019 , net unrealized investment gains, after tax, totaled$47.3 million compared to unrealized losses of$9.3 million and unrealized gains of$214.9 million as ofDecember 31, 2018 and 2017, respectively. The increase in net unrealized investment gains in 2019 is primarily the result of an increase in the value of the fixed maturity portfolio due to lower interest rates during 2019. The decrease in net unrealized investment gains in 2018 is primarily the result of the cumulative change in accounting principles on recognizing the change in the value of equity securities in the income statement. The change in accounting principles required unrealized gains on equity securities of$191.2 million , after-tax, as ofJanuary 1, 2018 , to be reclassified to retained earnings from accumulated other comprehensive income, both within shareholders equity. The remaining decrease is due to a decrease in the value of the fixed maturity portfolio due to rising interest rates. The increase in net unrealized investment gains in 2017 is primarily the result of a decrease in interest rates, which positively impacted the valuation of our fixed maturity security portfolio during 2017 and an increase in the fair value of our equity security portfolio. Our net unrealized investment gains also increased due to the decrease in the tax rate from the Tax Act enactment. The following table summarizes the change in our net unrealized investment gains (losses): (In Thousands) Years Ended December 31, 2019 2018 2017 Changes in net unrealized investment gains (losses): Available-for-sale fixed maturity securities$ 71,648 $ (57,475 ) $ 25,573 Equity securities - -
40,168
Deferred policy acquisition costs - 7,274
119
Income tax effect (15,046 ) 10,543 (21,545 ) Cumulative change in accounting principles - (191,244 )
-
Net unrealized investment depreciation of discontinued operations, sold - 6,714
-
Accumulated effect of change in enacted tax rate - -
36,658
Total change in net unrealized investment gains (losses), net of tax$ 56,602 $ (224,188 ) $ 80,973 47
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MARKET RISK Our Consolidated Balance Sheets include financial instruments whose fair values are subject to market risk. The active management of market risk is integral to our operations. Market risk is the potential for loss due to a decrease in the fair value of securities resulting from uncontrollable fluctuations, such as: interest rate risk, equity price risk, foreign exchange risk, credit risk, inflation, or geopolitical conditions. Our primary market risk exposures are: changes in interest rates, deterioration of credit quality in specific issuers, sectors or the economy as a whole, and an unforeseen decrease in the liquidity of securities we hold. We have no foreign exchange risk. Interest Rate Risk Interest rate risk is the price sensitivity of a fixed income maturity security or portfolio of securities to changes in level of interest rates. Generally, there is an inverse relationship between changes in interest rates and changes in the price of a fixed income/maturity security. Plainly stated, if interest rates go up (down), bond prices go down (up). A vast majority of our holdings are fixed income maturity and other interest rate sensitive securities that will decrease (increase) in value as interest rates increase (decrease). While it is generally our intent to hold our investments in fixed maturity securities to maturity, we have classified a majority of our fixed maturity portfolio as available-for-sale. Available-for-sale fixed income maturity securities are carried at fair value on the Consolidated Balance Sheets with unrealized gains or losses reported net of tax in Accumulated Other Comprehensive Income. A change in the prevailing interest rates generally translates into a change in the fair value of our fixed income/maturity securities, and by extension, our overall book value. Market Risk and Duration We analyze potential changes in the value of our investment portfolio due to the market risk factors noted above within the overall context of asset and liability management. A technique we use in the management of our investment portfolio is the calculation of duration. Our actuaries estimate the payout pattern of our reserve liabilities to determine their duration, which is the present value of the weighted average payments expressed in years. We then establish a target duration for our investment portfolio so that at any given time the estimated cash generated by the investment portfolio will closely match the estimated cash required for the payment of the related reserves. We structure the investment portfolio to meet the target duration to achieve the required cash flow, based on liquidity and market risk factors. Impact of Interest Rate Changes The amounts set forth in the following table detail the impact of hypothetical interest rate changes on the fair value of fixed maturity securities held atDecember 31, 2019 . The sensitivity analysis measures the change in fair values arising from immediate changes in selected interest rate scenarios. We employed hypothetical parallel shifts in the yield curve of plus or minus 100 and 200 basis points in the simulations. Additionally, based upon the yield curve shifts, we employ estimates of prepayment speeds for mortgage-related products and the likelihood of call or put options being exercised within the simulations. The selection of a 100-basis-point and 200-basis-point increase or decrease in interest rates should not be construed as a prediction by our management of future market events, but rather as an illustration of the potential impact of an event. 48
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Table of Contents December 31, 2019 -200 Basis -100 Basis +100 Basis + 200 Basis (In Thousands) Points Points Base Points Points AVAILABLE-FOR-SALE Fixed maturities Bonds U.S. Treasury$ 71,317 $ 70,391 $ 69,491 $ 68,614 $ 67,762 U.S. government agency 104,452 102,447 100,202 94,927 87,395 States, municipalities and political subdivisions General obligations: Midwest 94,410 91,442 88,594 85,383 80,840 Northeast 33,263 32,247 31,270 30,211 28,816 South 123,741 119,371 115,203 110,506 104,153 West 120,299 115,192 110,317 105,215 98,969 Special revenue: Midwest 152,342 145,943 139,892 133,358 124,248 Northeast 68,832 65,076 61,543 57,954 53,536 South 260,451 247,229 234,666 220,980 203,020 West 159,718 152,064 144,844 137,059 126,877 Foreign bonds 5,372 5,243 5,117 4,996 4,878 Public utilities 69,690 66,582 63,651 60,864 58,198 Corporate bonds Energy 32,903 31,474 30,124 28,845 27,621 Industrials 57,375 55,654 54,015 52,450 50,949 Consumer goods and services 53,668 51,512 49,466 47,520 45,658 Health care 10,345 9,899 9,480 9,085 8,714 Technology, media and telecommunications 30,999 29,270 27,670 26,183 24,793 Financial services 108,101 104,138 100,253 96,276 92,374 Mortgage backed securities 6,757 6,554 6,356 6,106 5,828 Collateralized mortgage obligations Government national mortgage association 87,871 84,825 80,356 74,868 69,303 Federal home loan mortgage corporation 127,408 125,929 124,502 120,588 114,324 Federal national mortgage association 74,189 73,410 71,845 67,893 63,173 Asset-backed securities 750 750 750 750 750 Total Available-For-Sale Fixed Maturities$ 1,854,253 $ 1,786,642 $ 1,719,607 $ 1,640,631 $ 1,542,179 TRADING Fixed maturities Bonds Corporate bonds Industrials Consumer goods and services 2,334 2,305 2,276 2,248 2,220 Health care 6,598 5,541 4,701 4,031 3,496 Technology, media and telecommunications 2,479 2,069 1,732 1,455 1,226 Financial services 2,573 2,516 2,460 2,407 2,355 Redeemable preferred stock 4,087 4,087 4,087 4,087 4,087
Total Trading Fixed Maturities
To the extent actual results differ from the assumptions utilized, our duration
and interest rate measures could be significantly affected. As a result, these
calculations may not fully capture the impact of nonparallel changes in the
relationship between short-term and long-term interest rates.
Equity Price Risk
Equity price risk is the potential loss arising from changes in the fair value
(i.e., market price) of equity securities held in our portfolio. Changes in the
price of an equity security may be due to a change in the future earnings
capacity or strategic outlook of the security issuer, and what investors are
willing to pay for those future earnings and related strategy. The carrying
values of our equity securities are based on quoted market prices, from an
independent source, as of the balance sheet date. Market prices of equity
securities, in general, are subject to
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fluctuations that could cause the amount to be realized upon the future sale of the securities to differ significantly from the current reported value. The fluctuations may result from perceived changes in the underlying economic characteristics of the security issuer, the relative price of alternative investments, general market conditions, and supply/demand factors related to a particular security. Impact of Price Change The following table details the effect on the fair value of our investments in equity securities for a positive and negative 10 percent price change atDecember 31, 2019 : (In Thousands) -10% Base
+10%
Estimated fair value of equity securities
Foreign Currency Exchange Rate Risk Foreign currency exchange rate risk arises from the possibility that changes in foreign exchange rates will impact our transactions with foreign reinsurers relating to the settlement of amounts due to or from foreign reinsurers in the normal course of business. We consider this risk to be immaterial to our operations. Credit Risk Credit risk is the willingness and ability of a borrower to repay on time and in full any principal and interest due to the lender. Losses related to credit risk are realized through the income statement and have a direct impact on the earnings of UFG. Given the vast majority of our holdings are fixed income maturity securities, we view credit risk as our primary investment risk. Our internalInvestment Department has developed and maintains a rigorous underwriting process to analyze and measure the expected frequency and severity of loss (i.e., credit quality) for government, agency, municipal, structured security, and corporate bond issuers. The objective is to maintain the appropriate balance of risk in our portfolio, consistent with our Investment Policy Statement and conservative investment style, and ensure the portfolio is compensated appropriately for the credit risk it holds. We do have within our municipal bond holdings a small number of securities whose ratings were enhanced by third-party insurance for the payment of principal and interest in the event of an issuer default. Of the insured municipal securities in our investment portfolio, 99.6 percent and 99.5 percent were rated "A" or above, and 95.6 percent and 94.7 percent were rated "AA" or above atDecember 31, 2019 and 2018, respectively, without the benefit of insurance. Due to the underlying financial strength of the issuers of the securities, we believe that the loss of insurance would not have a material impact on our operations, financial position, or liquidity. We have no direct exposure in any of the guarantors of our investments. Our largest indirect exposure with a single guarantor totaled$11.7 million or 24.2 percent of our insured municipal securities atDecember 31, 2019 , as compared to$20.0 million or 19.5 percent atDecember 31, 2018 . Our five largest indirect exposures to financial guarantors accounted for 81.2 percent and 73.7 percent of our insured municipal securities atDecember 31, 2019 and 2018, respectively. LIQUIDITY AND CAPITAL RESOURCES Liquidity measures our ability to generate sufficient cash flows to meet our short- and long-term cash obligations. Our cash inflows are primarily a result of the receipt of premiums, reinsurance recoveries, sales or maturities of investments, and investment income. Cash provided from these sources is used to fund the payment of losses and loss settlement expenses, the purchase of investments, operating expenses, dividends, pension plan contributions, and in recent years, common stock repurchases. We monitor our capital adequacy to support our business on a regular basis. The future capital requirements of our business will depend on many factors, including our ability to write new business successfully and to establish premium rates and reserves at levels sufficient to cover losses. Our ability to underwrite is largely dependent upon the quality of our claims paying and financial strength ratings as evaluated by independent rating agencies. In particular, we require (1) sufficient capital to maintain our financial strength ratings, as issued by various rating 50
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agencies, at a level considered necessary by management to enable our insurance company subsidiaries to compete and (2) sufficient capital to enable our insurance company subsidiaries to meet the capital adequacy tests performed by regulatory agencies inthe United States . Cash outflows may be variable because of the uncertainty regarding settlement dates for losses. In addition, the timing and amount of individual catastrophe losses are inherently unpredictable and could increase our liquidity requirements. The timing and amount of reinsurance recoveries may be affected by reinsurer solvency and reinsurance coverage disputes. Historically, we have generated substantial cash inflows from operations. It is our policy to invest the cash generated from operations in securities with maturities that, in the aggregate, correlate to the anticipated timing of payments for losses and loss settlement expenses. The majority of our assets are invested in available-for-sale fixed maturity securities. The following table displays a summary of cash sources and uses in 2019, 2018 and 2017 from continuing and discontinued operations: Cash Flow Summary Years Ended December 31, (In Thousands) 2019 2018 2017 Cash provided by (used in) Operating activities$ 93,752 $ 110,104 $ 170,094 Investing activities 4,501 (19,204 ) (61,985 ) Financing activities (41,985 ) (115,188 ) (107,549 ) Net increase (decrease) in cash and cash equivalents$ 56,268 $ (24,288 ) $ 560 In the Consolidated Statement of Cash Flows, cash flows from discontinued operations are shown in separate lines in each of the operating, investing and financing sections of the Cash Flow Statement. Our cash flows from continuing operations were sufficient to meet our current liquidity needs for the full-year periods endedDecember 31, 2019 , 2018 and 2017 and we anticipate they will be sufficient to meet our future liquidity needs. Operating Activities Net cash flows provided by operating activities totaled$93.8 million ,$110.1 million and$170.1 million in 2019, 2018 and 2017, respectively. Our cash flows from operations were sufficient to meet our liquidity needs for 2019, 2018 and 2017. Investing Activities Cash in excess of operating requirements is generally invested in fixed maturity securities and equity securities. Fixed maturity securities provide regular interest payments and allow us to match the duration of our liabilities. Equity securities provide dividend income, potential dividend income growth and potential appreciation. For further discussion of our investments, including our philosophy and portfolio, see the "Investment Portfolio" section contained in this Item. In addition to investment income, possible sales of investments and proceeds from calls or maturities of fixed maturity securities also can provide liquidity. During the next five years,$0.3 billion , or 19.4 percent of our fixed maturity portfolio will mature. We invest funds required for short-term cash needs primarily in money market accounts, which are classified as cash equivalents. AtDecember 31, 2019 , our cash and cash equivalents included$9.3 million related to these money market accounts, compared to$3.3 million atDecember 31, 2018 . Net cash flows provided by investing activities totaled$4.5 million in 2019 and used in investing activities totaled$19.2 million and$62.0 million in 2018 and 2017, respectively. In 2019, we had cash inflows from scheduled and unscheduled investment maturities, redemptions, prepayments, and sales of investments, from continuing 51
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operations, that totaled$311.7 million compared to$263.8 million and$205.1 million for the same period in 2018 and 2017, respectively. Our cash inflows from scheduled and unscheduled investment maturities, redemptions, prepayments, and sales of investments, from discontinued operations totaled$29.7 million and$148.6 million in 2018 and 2017, respectively. Our cash outflows for investment purchases from continuing operations totaled$274.7 million in 2019, compared to$540.4 million and$267.5 million for the same period in 2018 and 2017, respectively. Our cash outflows for investment purchases from discontinued operations totaled$15.4 million in 2018, compared to$131.0 million for the same period in 2017 respectively. Financing Activities Net cash flows used in financing activities totaled$42.0 million ,$115.2 million and$107.5 million in 2019, 2018 and 2017, respectively. Net cash flows used in financing activities from continuing operations totaled$42.0 million ,$103.6 million and$52.3 million in 2019, 2018 and 2017, respectively. The higher net cash flows used in financing activities in 2018 as compared to 2019 and 2017 is primarily due to the special cash dividend of$3.00 per share paid onAugust 20, 2018 . Net cash flows used in financing activities from discontinued operations totaled$11.5 million and$55.3 million in 2018 and 2017, respectively, primarily due to net annuity withdrawals. Dividends Dividends paid to shareholders totaled$32.7 million ,$105.4 million and$27.3 million in 2019, 2018 and 2017, respectively. The increase in dividends paid to shareholders in 2018 is primarily due to a special cash dividend of$3.00 per share paid to shareholders onAugust 20, 2018 . Our practice has been to pay quarterly cash dividends, which we have paid every quarter sinceMarch 1968 . Payments of any future dividends and the amounts of such dividends, however, will depend upon factors such as net income, financial condition, capital requirements, and general business conditions. We will only pay dividends if declared by our Board of Directors out of legally available funds. As a holding company with no independent operations of its own,United Fire Group, Inc. relies on dividends received from its insurance company subsidiaries in order to pay dividends to its common shareholders. Dividends payable by our insurance subsidiaries are governed by the laws in the states in which they are domiciled. In all cases, these state laws permit the payment of dividends only from earned surplus arising from business operations. For example, underIowa law, the maximum dividend or distribution that may be paid within a 12-month period without prior approval of the Iowa Insurance Commissioner is generally restricted to the greater of 10 percent of statutory surplus as of the precedingDecember 31 , or net income of the preceding calendar year on a statutory basis, not greater than earned statutory surplus. Other states in which our insurance company subsidiaries are domiciled may impose similar restrictions on dividends and distributions. Based on these restrictions, atDecember 31, 2019 , our insurance company subsidiary,United Fire & Casualty , is able to make a minimum of$154.2 million in dividend payments without prior regulatory approval. These restrictions are not expected to have a material impact in meeting our cash obligations. Share Repurchases Under our share repurchase program, first announced inAugust 2007 , we may purchase our common stock from time to time on the open market or through privately negotiated transactions. The amount and timing of any purchases will be at our discretion and will depend upon a number of factors, including the share price, economic and general market conditions, and corporate and regulatory requirements. Our share repurchase program may be modified or discontinued at any time. During 2019, 2018 and 2017, pursuant to authorization by our Board of Directors, we repurchased 258,756, 120,372, and 701,899 shares of our common stock, respectively, which used cash totaling$11.7 million in 2019,$5.4 million in 2018 and$29.8 million in 2017. AtDecember 31, 2019 , we were authorized to purchase an 52
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additional 1,857,444 shares of our common stock under our share repurchase program, which expires inAugust 2020 . Credit Facilities Information specific to our credit facilities is incorporated by reference from Note 14 "Credit Facility" contained in Part II, Item 8, "Financial Statements and Supplementary Data." Stockholders' Equity Stockholders' equity increased 2.5 percent to$910.5 million atDecember 31, 2019 , from$888.4 million atDecember 31, 2018 . The increase is primarily attributed to the increase in net unrealized investment gains net of tax of$56.6 million , net income of$14.8 million , and stock based compensation of$8.5 million , all offset by payment of stockholder dividends of$32.7 million , share repurchases of$11.7 million , and change in liability for employee benefit plans of$13.0 million . As ofDecember 31, 2019 , the book value per share of our common stock was$36.40 , compared to$35.40 atDecember 31, 2018 .Risk-Based Capital The NAIC adopted risk-based capital requirements, which requires us to calculate a minimum capital requirement for each of our insurance companies based on individual company insurance risk factors. These "risk-based capital" results are used by state insurance regulators to identify companies that require regulatory attention or the initiation of regulatory action. AtDecember 31, 2019 , all of our insurance companies had capital well in excess of required levels. Contractual Obligations and Commitments The following table shows our contractual obligations and commitments, including our estimated payments due by period atDecember 31, 2019 : (In Thousands) Payments Due By
Period
Less Than One to Three to More Than
Contractual Obligations Total One Year Three Years Five Years Five Years
Loss and loss settlement
expense reserves $ 1,421,754 $ 503,916 $ 490,744 $ 242,326 $ 184,768
Operating leases 16,861 7,517 7,728 1,577 39
Profit-sharing
commissions 19,600 19,600
Pension plan
contributions 10,000 10,000
Total $ 1,468,215 $ 541,033 $ 498,472 $ 243,903 $ 184,807
Loss and Loss Settlement Expense Reserves
The amounts presented are estimates of the dollar amounts and time periods in
which we expect to pay out our gross loss and loss settlement expense reserves.
Because the timing of future payments may vary from the stated contractual
obligation, these amounts are estimates based upon historical payment patterns
and may not represent actual future payments. Refer to "Critical Accounting
Policies - Loss and Loss Settlement Expenses" in this section for further
discussion.
Operating Leases
Our operating lease obligations are for the rental of office space, vehicles,
computer equipment and office equipment. For further discussion of our operating
leases, refer to Part II, Item 8, Note 13 "Lease Commitments."
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Profit-Sharing Commissions We offer our agents a profit-sharing plan as an incentive for them to place high-quality property and casualty insurance business with us. Based on business produced by the agencies in 2019, property and casualty agencies will receive profit-sharing payments of$19.6 million in 2020. Pension Plan Payments We estimate the pension contribution for 2020 in accordance with the Pension Protection Act of 2006 (the "Act"). Contributions for future years are dependent on a number of factors, including actual performance versus assumptions made at the time of the actuarial valuations and maintaining certain funding levels relative to regulatory requirements. Contributions in 2020, and in future years, are expected to be at least equal to theIRS minimum required contribution in accordance with the Act. OFF BALANCE SHEET ARRANGEMENTS Funding Commitments We hold investments in limited liability partnerships as part of our investment strategy. AtDecember 31, 2019 , pursuant to an agreement with our limited liability partnership investments, we are contractually committed to make consolidated capital contributions up to$14.1 million upon request of the partnerships throughJuly 31, 2028 . These partnerships are included in our other invested assets on the Consolidated Balance Sheets with a current fair value of$16.5 million , or 0.8% of our total invested assets, atDecember 31, 2019 . We recognized investment income of$0.1 million from these investments during 2019. CRITICAL ACCOUNTING POLICIES Critical accounting policies are defined as those that are representative of significant judgments and uncertainties and that may potentially result in materially different results under different assumptions and conditions. We base our discussion and analysis of our results of operations and financial condition on the amounts reported in our Consolidated Financial Statements, which we have prepared in accordance with GAAP. As we prepare these Consolidated Financial Statements, we must make estimates and assumptions that affect the reported amounts of assets and liabilities, the disclosure of contingent assets and liabilities at the date of the financial statements, and the reported amounts of revenues and expenses for the reporting period. We evaluate our estimates on an ongoing basis. We base our estimates on historical experience and on other assumptions we believe to be reasonable under the circumstances. Actual results could differ from those estimates. We believe our most critical accounting policies are as follows. Investment Valuation Upon acquisition, we classify investments in marketable securities as held-to-maturity, available-for-sale, or trading. We record investments in available-for-sale and trading fixed maturity securities and equity securities at fair value. Other long-term investments consist primarily of our interests in limited liability partnerships that are recorded on the equity method of accounting. We record mortgage loans at their amortized cost less any valuation allowance. In general, investment securities are exposed to various risks, such as interest rate risk, credit risk, and overall market volatility risk. Therefore, it is reasonably possible that changes in the fair value of our investment securities that are reported at fair value will occur in the near term and such changes could materially affect the amounts reported in the Consolidated Financial Statements. Also, it is reasonably possible that changes in the value of our investments in trading securities and limited liability partnerships could occur in the future and such changes could materially affect our results of operations as reported in our Consolidated Financial Statements. 54
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Fair Value Measurement
Information specific to the fair value measurement of our financial instruments
and disclosures is incorporated by reference from Note 3 "Fair Value of
Financial Instruments" contained in Part II, Item 8, "Financial Statements and
Supplementary Data."
Other-Than-Temporary Impairment ("OTTI") Charges
We continually monitor the difference between our cost basis and the estimated
fair value of our investments. Our accounting policy for impairment recognition
requires OTTI charges to be recorded when we determine that it is more likely
than not that we will be unable to collect all amounts due according to the
contractual terms of the fixed maturity security. Impairment charges on
investments are recorded based on the fair value of the investments at the
measurement date or based on the value calculated using a discounted cash flow
model. Factors considered in evaluating whether a decline in value is
other-than-temporary include: the length of time and the extent to which fair
value has been less than cost; the financial condition and near-term prospects
of the issuer; our intention to hold the investment; and the likelihood that we
will be required to sell the investment.
The determination of the amount of impairments varies by investment type and is
based upon our periodic evaluation and assessment of known and inherent risks
associated with the respective asset class. Such evaluations and assessments are
revised as conditions change and new information becomes available.
Additionally, our management considers a wide range of factors about the
instrument issuer and uses its best judgment in evaluating the cause of the
decline in the estimated fair value of the instrument and in assessing the
prospects for recovery. Inherent in management's evaluation of the security are
assumptions and estimates about the operations of the issuer and its future
earnings potential.
At December 31, 2019 and 2018, we had a number of securities with fair value
less than the cost basis. The total unrealized loss on these securities was $0.8
million at December 31, 2019 , compared with $23.6 million at December 31, 2018 .
Our rationale for not recording OTTI charges on these securities is discussed in
Part II, Item 8, Note 2 "Summary of Investments."
Deferred Policy Acquisition Costs ("DAC")
We record an asset for certain costs of underwriting new business, primarily
commissions, premium taxes and variable underwriting and policy issue expenses
that have been deferred. The amount of underwriting compensation expense
eligible for deferral is based on time studies and a ratio of success in policy
placement. At December 31, 2019 and 2018, our DAC asset was $94.3 million and
$92.8 million , respectively.
The DAC asset is amortized over the life of the policies written, generally one
year. We assess the recoverability of DAC on a quarterly basis by line of
business. This assessment is performed by comparing recorded unearned premium to
the sum of unamortized DAC and estimates of expected losses and loss settlement
expenses. If the sum of these costs exceeds the amount of recorded unearned
premium (i.e., the line of business is expected to generate an operating loss),
the excess is recognized in current period other underwriting expenses as an
offset against the established DAC asset. We refer to this offset as a premium
deficiency charge.
To calculate the premium deficiency charge by line of business, we estimate an
expected loss and loss settlement expense ratio which is based on our best
estimate of future losses for each line of business. This calculation is
performed on a quarterly basis and developed in conjunction with our quarterly
reserving process. The expected loss and loss settlement expense ratios are the
only assumptions we utilize in our premium deficiency calculation. Changes in
these assumptions can have a significant impact on the amount of premium
deficiency charge recognized for a line of business. The premium deficiency
calculation is aggregated by line of business in a manner consistent with how
the policies are currently being marketed and managed.
The following table illustrates the hypothetical impact on the premium
deficiency charge recorded for the quarter ended December 31, 2019 , of
reasonably likely changes in the assumed loss and loss settlement expense ratios
utilized for purposes of this calculation. The entire impact of these changes
would be recognized through income as
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other underwriting expenses. The following table illustrates the impact of potential changes in the expected loss and loss settlement expense ratios for all lines of business on the premium deficiency charge. The base amount indicated below is the actual premium deficiency charge recorded as an offset against the DAC asset established as of the quarter endedDecember 31, 2019 : Sensitivity Analysis - Impact of Changes in Projected Loss and Loss Settlement Expense Ratios (In Thousands) -10% -5% Base +5% +10% Premium deficiency charge estimated $ - $ -$ 4,557 $ 13,357 $ 24,386 Actual future results could differ materially from our assumptions used to calculate the recorded DAC asset. Changes in our assumed loss and loss settlement expense ratios in the future would impact the amount of deferred costs in the period such changes in assumptions are made. The premium deficiency charge calculated for the quarter endedDecember 31, 2019 was$4.6 million compared to the premium deficiency charge of$4.3 million calculated for the same period of 2018. Losses and Loss Settlement Expenses Reserves for losses and loss settlement expenses are reported using our best estimate of ultimate liability for claims that occurred prior to the end of any given reporting period, but have not yet been paid. Before credit for reinsurance recoverables, these reserves were$1,421.8 million and$1,312.5 million atDecember 31, 2019 and 2018, respectively. We purchase reinsurance to mitigate the impact of large losses and catastrophic events. Loss and loss settlement expense reserves ceded to reinsurers were$68.5 million for 2019 and$57.1 million for 2018. Our reserves, before credit for reinsurance recoverables, by line of business as ofDecember 31, 2019 , were as follows: Loss Settlement (In Thousands) Case Basis IBNR Expense Total Reserves Commercial lines Fire and allied lines$ 90,332 $ 17,170 $ 22,764 $ 130,266 Other liability 302,120 107,942 189,895 599,957 Automobile 282,213 79,552 83,228 444,993 Workers' compensation 153,691 5,000 23,761 182,452 Fidelity and surety 2,894 2,520 186 5,600 Miscellaneous 455 563 143 1,161 Total commercial lines$ 831,705 $ 212,747 $ 319,977 $ 1,364,429 Personal lines Automobile$ 12,808 $ 1,488 $ 2,263 $ 16,559 Fire and allied lines 9,040 3,727 2,540 15,307 Miscellaneous 70 258 106 434 Total personal lines$ 21,918 $ 5,473 $ 4,909 $ 32,300 Reinsurance assumed 12,134 12,720 171 25,025 Total$ 865,757 $ 230,940 $ 325,057 $ 1,421,754 Case-Basis Reserves For each of our lines of business, with respect to reported claims, we establish reserves on a case-by-case basis. Our experienced claims personnel estimate these case-basis reserves using adjusting guidelines established by management. Our goal is to set the case-basis reserves at the ultimate expected loss amount as soon as possible after information about the claim becomes available. Establishing the case reserve for an individual claim is subjective and complex, requiring us to estimate future payments and values that will be sufficient to settle an individual claim. Setting a reserve for an individual claim is 56
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an inherently uncertain process. When we establish and adjust individual claim
reserves, we do so based on our knowledge of the circumstances and facts of the
claim. Upon notice of a claim, we establish a preliminary (average claim cost)
reserve based on the limited claim information initially reported. Subsequently,
we conduct an investigation of each reported claim, which allows us to more
fully understand the factors contributing to the loss and our potential
exposure. This investigation may extend over a long period of time. As our claim
investigation progresses, and as our claims personnel identify trends in claims
activity, we may refine and adjust our estimates of case reserves. To evaluate
and refine our overall reserving process, we track and monitor all claims until
they are settled and paid in full, with all salvage and subrogation claims being
resolved.
Most of our insurance policies are written on an occurrence basis that provides
coverage if a loss occurs during the policy period, even if the insured reports
the loss many years later. For example, some liability claims for construction
defect coverage are reported 10 years or more after the policy period, and the
workers' compensation coverage provided by our policies pays unlimited medical
benefits for the duration of the claimant's injury up to the lifetime of the
claimant. In addition, final settlement of certain claims can be delayed for
years due to litigation or other reasons. Reserves for these claims require us
to estimate future costs, including the effect of judicial actions, litigation
trends and medical cost inflation, among others. Reserve development can occur
over time as conditions and circumstances change many years after the policy was
issued and/or the loss occurred.
Our loss reserves include amounts related to both short-tail and long-tail lines
of business. "Tail" refers to the time period between the occurrence of a loss
and the ultimate settlement of the claim. A short-tail insurance product is one
where ultimate losses are known and settled comparatively quickly. Ultimate
losses under a long-tail insurance product are sometimes not known and settled
for many years. The longer the time span between the incidence of a loss and the
settlement of the claim, the more the ultimate settlement amount can vary from
the reserves initially established. Accordingly, long-tail insurance products
can have significant implications on the reserving process.
Our short-tail lines of business include fire and allied lines, homeowners,
commercial property, auto physical damage and inland marine. The amounts of the
case-based reserves that we establish for claims in these lines depend upon
various factors, such as individual claim facts (including type of coverage and
severity of loss), our historical loss experience and trends in general economic
conditions (including changes in replacement costs, medical costs and
inflation).
For short-tail lines of business, the estimation of case-basis loss reserves is
less complex than for long-tail lines because the claims relate to tangible
property. Because of the relatively short time from claim occurrence to
settlement, actual losses typically do not vary significantly from reserve
estimates.
Our long-tail lines of business include workers' compensation and other
liability. In addition, certain product lines such as personal and commercial
auto, commercial multi-peril and surety include both long-tail coverages and
short-tail coverages. For many long-tail liability claims, significant periods
of time, ranging up to several years, may elapse between the occurrence of the
loss, the reporting of the loss to us and the settlement of the claim. As a
result, loss experience in the more recent accident years for the long-tail
liability coverages has limited statistical credibility in our reserving process
because a relatively small proportion of losses in these accident years are
reported claims and an even smaller proportion are paid losses. In addition,
long-tail liability claims are more susceptible to litigation and can be
significantly affected by changing contract interpretations and the legal
environment. Consequently, the estimation of loss reserves for long-tail
coverages is more complex and subject to a higher degree of variability than for
short-tail coverages.
The amounts of the case-basis loss reserves that we establish for claims in
long-tail lines of business depends upon various factors, including individual
claim facts (including type of coverage, severity of loss and underlying policy
limits), company historical loss experience, changes in underwriting practice,
legislative enactments, judicial decisions, legal developments in the awarding
of damages, changes in political attitudes and trends in general economic
conditions, including inflation. As with our short-tail lines of business, we
review and make changes to long-tail case-based reserves based on our review of
continually evolving facts as they become available to us during the claims
settlement process. Our adjustments to case-based reserves are reported in the
financial statements in the period that new information arises about the claim.
Examples of facts that become known that could cause us
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to change our case-based reserves include, but are not limited to: evidence that loss severity is different than previously assessed; new claimants who have presented claims; and the assessment that no coverage exists. Incurred But Not Reported Reserves
On a quarterly basis, the Company's internal actuary performs a detailed
analysis of IBNR reserves. This analysis uses various loss projection methods to
provide several estimates of ultimate loss (or loss adjustment expense ("LAE"))
for each individual year and line of business. The loss projection methods
include paid loss development; reported loss development; expected loss
emergence based on paid losses; and expected loss emergence based on reported
losses. The two methods utilized by our internal actuary to project loss
settlement expenses are paid expenses development and development of the ratio
of paid expense versus paid loss. Results of the projection methods are compared
and a point estimate of ultimate loss (or LAE) is established for each
individual year and line of business. The specific projection methods used to
establish point estimates vary depending on what is deemed most appropriate for
a particular line of business and year. Results of these methods are usually
averaged together to provide a final point estimate. Given that there are
several inputs depending on the line of business, the methods may be averaged
and modified based on changes known to management or trends in the market. IBNR
estimates are derived by subtracting reported loss from the final point estimate
loss.
Senior management meets with our internal actuary and controller quarterly to
review the adequacy of carried IBNR reserves based on results from this
actuarial analysis and makes adjustments for changes in business and other
factors not completely captured by the data within the actuarial analysis. There
are two fundamental types or sources of IBNR reserves. We record IBNR for
"normal" types of claims and also specific IBNR reserves related to unique
circumstances or events. A major hurricane is an example of an event that might
necessitate specific IBNR reserves because an analysis of existing historical
data would not provide an appropriate estimate. This method of establishing our
IBNR reserves has consistently resulted in aggregate reserve levels that
management believes are reasonable in comparison to the reserve estimates
indicated by the actuarial analysis.
For our short-tail lines of business, IBNR reserves constitute a small portion
of the overall reserves. These claims are generally reported and settled shortly
after the loss occurs. In our long-tail lines of business, IBNR reserves
constitute a relatively higher proportion of total reserves, because, for many
liability claims, significant periods of time may elapse between the initial
occurrence of the loss, the reporting of the loss to us, and the ultimate
settlement of the claim.
Loss Settlement Expense Reserves
Loss settlement expense reserves include amounts ultimately allocable to
individual claims, as well as amounts required for the general overhead of the
claims handling operation that are not specifically allocable to individual
claims. We do not establish loss settlement expense reserves on a claim-by-claim
basis. Instead, on a quarterly basis, our internal actuary performs a detailed
statistical analysis (using historical data) to estimate the required reserve
for unpaid loss settlement expenses. On a monthly basis, the required reserve
estimate is adjusted to reflect additional earned exposure and expense payments
that have occurred subsequent to completion of the quarterly analysis.
LAE is composed of two distinct kinds of expenses which are allocated LAE
("ALAE") and unallocated LAE ("ULAE"). These two expense types have different
purposes and characteristics which necessitates different estimation methods in
order to provide a valid quarterly estimate of the required reserve for unpaid
expense which is generally referred to as an LAE IBNR reserve.
Reserves for unpaid ALAE are estimated quarterly by line of business for each
individual accident year using three methods: (1) Paid development, (2) Expected
emergence of ALAE, and (3) Development of the ratio of paid ALAE to paid loss.
Each of the three methods produces an estimate of the ultimate ALAE cost for an
individual accident year and the final estimate is generally a weighted average
of the various methods. Inception to date paid ALAE is subtracted from the final
ultimate ALAE estimate to provide the estimated ALAE IBNR reserve for each
individual accident year.
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Reserves for unpaid ULAE are estimated quarterly by line of business for each individual accident year using a single method. This method consists of applying a percentage factor to unpaid loss reserves. The percentage factor used differs by line of business and is evaluated and established on an annual basis using year-end data. The percentage factor is evaluated and selected after reviewing the ratio of paid ULAE to paid loss using calendar year data for the most recent five years. Generally, the loss settlement expense reserves for long-tail lines of business are a greater portion of the overall reserves, as there are often substantial legal fees and other costs associated with the complex liability claims that are associated with long-tail coverages. Because short-tail lines of business settle much more quickly and the costs are easier to determine, loss settlement expense reserves for such claims constitute a smaller portion of the total reserves. Reinsurance Reserves The estimation of assumed and ceded reinsurance loss and loss settlement expense reserves is subject to the same factors as the estimation of loss and loss settlement expense reserves. In addition to those factors, which give rise to inherent uncertainties in establishing loss and loss settlement expense reserves, there exists a delay in our receipt of reported claims for assumed business due to the procedure of having claims first reported through one or more intermediary insurers or reinsurers. Reserves for assumed reinsurance are established using methods and techniques identical to those used for direct lines of business. The additional delay inherent in assumed reinsurance reporting is considered in our reserving process and payment is not problematic. Assumed reinsurance, like every independent line of business, has unique reporting and payment patterns that are reviewed as part of the reserve estimation process. There are three distinct types of reserves ceded to reinsurers: (1) reported claim reserves, (2) loss IBNR, and (3) LAE IBNR. Ceded reserves for reported claims are calculated by subtracting the primary retention from the claim value established by our claim adjuster. Ceded loss IBNR originates solely from our boiler and machinery business which is 100 percent reinsured. For this business ceded loss IBNR is equal to direct loss IBNR. Boiler and machinery business is included in our commercial fire and allied line of business. We will cede some LAE expenses when we cede loss. Our ceded LAE IBNR is estimated based on our ceded unpaid loss reserves and the general relation, by line of business, between LAE and loss. Our primary retention was$2.0 million for 2012 through 2015 and increased to$2.5 million for 2016 through 2019. Key Assumptions Our internal and external actuaries and management use a number of key assumptions in establishing an estimate of loss and loss settlement expense reserves, including the following assumptions: future loss settlement expenses can be estimated based on the Company's historical ratios of loss settlement expenses paid to losses; the Company's case-basis reserves reflect the most up-to-date information available about the unique circumstances of each individual claim; no new judicial decisions or regulatory actions will increase our case-basis obligations; historical aggregate claim reporting and payment patterns will continue into the future consistent with the observable past; significant unique and unusual claim events have been identified and appropriate adjustments have been made; and, to the best of our knowledge, there are no new latent trends that would impact our case-basis reserves. Our key assumptions are subject to change as actual claims occur and as we gain additional information about the variables that underlie our assumptions. Accordingly, management reviews and updates these assumptions periodically to ensure that the assumptions continue to be valid. If necessary, management makes changes not only in the estimates derived from the use of these assumptions, but also in the assumptions themselves. Due to the inherent uncertainty in the loss reserving process, management believes that there is a reasonable chance that modification to key assumptions could individually, or in aggregate, result in reserve levels that are either significantly above or below the actual amount for which the related claims will eventually settle. As an example, if our loss and loss settlement expense reserves of$1,421.8 million as ofDecember 31, 2019 , is 10.0 percent inadequate, we would experience a reduction in future pre-tax earnings of up to$142.2 million . This 59
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reduction could be recorded in one year or multiple years, depending on when we identify the deficiency. The deficiency would also affect our financial position in that our equity would be reduced by an amount equivalent to the reduction in net income. Any deficiency that would be recognized in our loss and loss settlement expense reserves usually does not have a material effect on our liquidity because the claims have not been paid. Conversely, if our estimates of ultimate unpaid loss and loss settlement expense reserves prove to be redundant, our future earnings and financial position would be improved. We believe our reserving philosophy, coupled with what we believe to be aggressive and successful claims management and loss settlement practices, has resulted in year-to-year redundancies in reserves. We believe our approach produces recorded reserves that are reasonable as to their relative position within a range of reasonable reserves from year-to-year. We are unable to reasonably quantify the impact of changes in our key assumptions utilized to establish individual case-basis reserves on our total reported reserves because the impact of these changes would be unique to each specific case-basis reserve established. However, based on historical experience, we believe that aggregate case-basis reserve volatility levels of 5.0 percent and 10.0 percent can be attributed to the ultimate development of our net case-basis reserves. The impact to pre-tax earnings would be a decrease if the reserves were to be adjusted upwards and an increase if the reserves were to be adjusted downwards. The table below details the impact of this development volatility on our reported net case-basis reserves atDecember 31, 2019 : (In Thousands) Change in level of net case-basis reserve development 5% 10% Impact on reported net case-basis reserves$ 40,109 $ 80,218 Due to the formula-based nature of our IBNR and loss settlement expense reserve calculations, changes in the key assumptions utilized to generate these reserves can impact our reported results. It is not possible to isolate and measure the potential impact of just one of these factors, and future loss trends could be partially impacted by all factors concurrently. Nevertheless, it is meaningful to view the sensitivity of the reserves to potential changes in these variables. To demonstrate the sensitivity of reserves to changes in significant assumptions, the following example is presented. The amounts reflect the pre-tax impact on earnings from a hypothetical percentage change in the calculation of IBNR and loss settlement expense reserves atDecember 31, 2019 . The impact to pre-tax earnings would be a decrease if the reserves were to be adjusted upwards and an increase if the reserves were to be adjusted downwards. We believe that the changes presented are reasonably likely based upon an analysis of our historical IBNR and loss settlement expense reserve experience. (In Thousands) Change in claim frequency and claim severity assumptions 5% 10% Impact due to change in IBNR reserving assumptions$ 11,524 $ 23,048 (In Thousands) Change in LAE paid to losses paid ratio 1% 2%
Impact due to change in LAE reserving assumptions
In 2019, we did not change the key method through which we develop our
assumptions on which we based our reserving calculations. In estimating our 2019
loss and loss settlement expense reserves, we did not anticipate future events
or conditions that were inconsistent with past development patterns.
Certain of our lines of business are subject to the potential for greater loss
and loss settlement expense development than others, which are discussed below:
Other Liability Reserves
Other liability is considered a long-tail line of business, as it can take a
relatively long period of time to settle claims from prior accident years. This
is partly due to the lag time between the date a loss or event occurs that
triggers
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coverage and the date when the claim is actually reported. Defense costs are also a part of the insured expenses covered by liability policies and can be significant, sometimes greater than the cost of the actual paid claims. For the majority of our products, defense costs are outside of the policy limit, meaning that the amounts paid for defense costs are not subtracted from the available policy limit. Factors that can cause reserve uncertainty in estimating reserves in this line include: reporting time lags; the number of parties involved in the underlying tort action; whether the "event" triggering coverage is confined to only one time period or is spread over multiple time periods; the potential dollars involved in the individual claim actions; whether such claims were reasonably foreseeable and intended to be covered at the time the contracts were written (i.e., coverage disputes); and the potential for mass claim actions. Claims with longer reporting time lags may result in greater inherent risk. This is especially true for alleged claims with a latency feature, particularly where courts have ruled that coverage is spread over multiple policy years, hence involving multiple defendants (and their insurers and reinsurers) and multiple policies (thereby increasing the potential dollars involved and the underlying settlement complexity). Claims with long latencies also increase the potential time lag between writing a policy in a certain market and the recognition that such policy has potential mass tort and/or latent claim exposure. Our reserve for other liability claims atDecember 31, 2019 , was$600.0 million and consisted of 6,461 claims, compared with$549.8 million , consisting of 6,542 claims atDecember 31, 2018 . Of the$600.0 million total reserve for other liability claims,$151.2 million is identified as defense costs and$38.7 million is identified as general overhead required in the settlement of claims. Included in the other liability line of business are gross reserves for construction defect losses and loss settlement expenses. Construction defect is a liability allegation relating to defective work performed in the construction of structures such as commercial buildings, apartments, condominiums, single family dwellings or other housing, as well as the sale of defective building materials. These claims seek recovery due to damage caused by alleged deficient construction techniques or workmanship. AtDecember 31, 2019 , we had$60.4 million in construction defect loss and loss settlement expense reserves, excluding IBNR reserves that are calculated for the overall other liability commercial line, which consisted of 3,439 claims. AtDecember 31, 2018 , our reserves, excluding IBNR reserves, totaled$44.5 million , which consisted of 2,706 claims. The reporting of such claims can be delayed, as the statute of limitations can be up to 10 years. Court decisions in recent years have expanded insurers' exposure to construction defect claims. As a result, claims may be reported more than 10 years after a project has been completed, as litigation can proceed for several years before an insurance company is identified as a potential contributor. Claims have also emerged from parties claiming additional insured status on policies issued to other parties, such as contractors seeking coverage from a subcontractor's policy. In addition to these issues, other variables also contribute to a high degree of uncertainty in establishing reserves for construction defect claims. These variables include: whether coverage exists; when losses occur; the size of each loss; expectations for future interpretive rulings concerning contract provisions; and the extent to which the assertion of these claims will expand geographically. In recent years, we have implemented various underwriting measures that we anticipate will mitigate the amount of construction defect losses experienced. These initiatives include increased care regarding additional insured endorsements; stricter underwriting guidelines on the writing of residential contractors; and an increased utilization of loss control. Asbestos and Environmental Reserves Included in the other liability and assumed reinsurance lines of business are reserves for asbestos and other environmental losses and loss settlement expenses. AtDecember 31, 2019 and 2018, we had$3.1 million and$3.0 million , respectively, in direct and assumed asbestos and environmental loss reserves. The estimation of loss reserves for environmental claims and claims related to long-term exposure to asbestos and other substances is one of the most difficult aspects of establishing reserves, especially given the inherent uncertainties surrounding such claims. Although we record our best estimate of loss and loss settlement expense reserves, the ultimate amounts paid upon settlement of such claims may be more or less than the amount of the reserves, because of the significant uncertainties involved and the likelihood that these uncertainties will not be resolved for many years. 61
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Commercial Auto Reserves Commercial auto claim reserves are established at exposure based on information either known and provided or obtained through the investigation, with some pessimism built in. Incorporated are the perspective and experience the claims staff has acquired, which may include assumptions as to how the claim will develop over time, and with a slightly pessimistic view. Exposures are identified and reserves established within 30 to 60 days depending on the complexity of the case. Workers' Compensation Reserves Like the other liability line of business, workers' compensation losses and loss settlement expense reserves are based upon variables that create imprecision in estimating the ultimate reserve. Estimates for workers' compensation are particularly sensitive to assumptions about medical cost inflation, which has been steadily increasing over the past few years. Other variables that we consider and that contribute to the uncertainty in establishing reserves for workers' compensation claims include: state legislative and regulatory environments; trends in jury awards; and mortality rates. Because of these variables, the process of reserving for the ultimate loss and loss settlement expense to be incurred requires the use of informed judgment and is inherently uncertain. Consequently, actual loss and loss settlement expense reserves may deviate from our estimates. Such deviations may be significant. Our reserve for workers' compensation claims atDecember 31, 2019 was$182.5 million and consisted of 3,869 claims, compared with$210.7 million , consisting of 4,337 claims, atDecember 31, 2018 .Reserve Development The following reserve development section should be read in conjunction with the "Results of Operations for the Years EndedDecember 31, 2019 , 2018 and 2017" section of this Item 7. In 2019, 2018 and 2017, we recognized a favorable development in our net reserves for prior accident years totaling$5.3 million ,$54.2 million and$54.3 million , respectively. The factors contributing to our year-to-year redundancy include: establishing reserves at their ultimate expected loss amount as soon as practicable after information becomes available, which produces, on average, prudently conservative case reserves; using claims negotiation to control the size of settlements; assuming that we have liability for all claims, even though the issue of liability may, in some cases, be resolved in our favor; promoting claims management services to encourage return-to-work programs; case management by nurses for serious injuries and management of medical provider services and billings; and using programs and services to help prevent fraud and to assist in favorably resolving cases. Based upon our comparison of carried reserves to actual claims experience over the last several years, we believe that using our Company's historical premium and claims data to establish reserves for losses and loss settlement expenses results in adequate and reasonable reserves. Reserve development is discussed in more detail under the heading "Reserve Development " in the "Results of Operations for the Years EndedDecember 31, 2019 , 2018 and 2017" section in this Item 7. The following table details the pre-tax impact on our property and casualty insurance business' financial results and financial condition of reasonably likely reserve development. Our lines of business that have historically been most susceptible to significant volatility in reserve development have been shown separately and utilize hypothetical levels of volatility of 5.0 percent and 10.0 percent. Our other, less volatile, lines of business have been aggregated and utilize hypothetical levels of volatility of 3.0 percent and 5.0 percent. 62
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(In Thousands)Hypothetical Reserve Development Volatility Levels -10% -5% +5%
+10%
Impact on loss and loss settlement expenses Other liability$ (59,996 ) $ (29,998 ) $ 29,998 $ 59,996 Workers' compensation (18,245 ) (9,123 ) 9,123 18,245 Automobile (46,155 ) (23,078 ) 23,078 46,155Hypothetical Reserve Development Volatility Levels -5% -3% +3%
+5%
Impact on loss and loss settlement expenses All other lines$ (8,890 ) $ (5,334 ) $ 5,334 $ 8,890 Independent Actuary We engage an independent actuarial firm to render an opinion as to the reasonableness of the statutory reserves internal management establishes. During 2019 and 2018, we engaged the services of Regnier as our independent actuarial firm for the property and casualty insurance business. We anticipate that this engagement will continue in 2020. It is management's policy to utilize staff adjusters to develop our estimate of case-basis loss reserves. IBNR and loss settlement expense reserves are established through various formulae that utilize pertinent, recent Company historical data. The calculations are supplemented with knowledge of current trends and events that could result in adjustments to the level of IBNR and loss settlement expense reserves. On a quarterly basis, we compare our estimate of total reserves to the estimates prepared by Regnier by line of business to ensure that our estimates are within the actuary's acceptable range. Regnier performs a review of loss and loss settlement expense reserves at each year end using generally accepted actuarial guidelines to ensure that the recorded reserves appear reasonable. Our net reserves for losses and loss settlement expenses as ofDecember 31, 2019 and 2018 were$1,353.2 million and$1,255.4 million , respectively. In 2019 and 2018, after considering the independent actuary's range of reasonable estimates, management believes that carried reserves were reasonable and therefore did not adjust the recorded amount. Regnier uses four projection methods in its actuarial analysis of our loss reserves and uses two projection methods in its actuarial analysis of our loss settlement expense reserves. Based on the results of the projection methods, the actuaries select an actuarial point estimate of the reserves, which is compared to our carried reserves to evaluate the reasonableness of the carried reserves. The four methods utilized by Regnier to project losses are: paid loss development; reported loss development; expected loss emergence based on paid losses; and expected loss emergence based on reported losses. The two methods utilized by Regnier to project loss expenses are: paid expenses-to-paid loss and paid expense-to-ultimate loss. Pension and Post-retirement Benefit Obligations The process of estimating our pension and post-retirement benefit obligations and related benefit expense is inherently uncertain, and the actual cost of benefits may vary materially from the estimates recorded. These liabilities are particularly volatile due to their long-term nature and are based on several assumptions. The main assumptions used in the valuation of our benefit obligations are: estimated mortality of the employees and retirees eligible for benefits; estimated expected long-term rates of return on investments; estimated compensation increases; estimated employee turnover; estimated medical expense trend rate; and estimated rate used to discount the ultimate estimated liability to a present value. We engage a consulting actuary from Principal Financial Group, an independent firm, to assist in evaluating and establishing assumptions used in the valuation of our benefit obligations. A change in any one or more of these assumptions is likely to result in an ultimate liability different from the original actuarial estimate. Such changes in estimates may be material. For example, a 100 basis point decrease in our estimated discount rate would increase the pension and post-retirement benefit obligation atDecember 31, 2019 , 63
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by$47.9 million and$5.6 million , respectively, while a 100 basis point increase in the rate would decrease the benefit obligation atDecember 31, 2019 , by$37.2 million and$4.4 million , respectively. In addition, for the post-retirement benefit plan, a 100 basis point decrease in the medical trend rate would decrease the post-retirement benefit obligation atDecember 31, 2019 , by$4.3 million , while a 100 basis point increase in the medical trend rate would increase the benefit obligation atDecember 31, 2019 , by$5.3 million . A 100 basis point decrease in our estimated long-term rate of return on pension plan assets would increase the benefit expense for the year endedDecember 31, 2019 , by$2.0 million , while a 100 basis point increase in the rate would decrease benefit expense by$2.0 million , for the same period. For the post-retirement benefit plan, a 100 basis point increase in our estimated medical trend rate would increase the benefit expense for the year endedDecember 31, 2019 , by$0.7 million , while a 100 basis point decrease in the rate would decrease benefit expense by$0.5 million , for the same period. Recently Issued Accounting Standards Information specific to accounting standards that we adopted in 2019 or pending accounting standards that we expect to adopt in the future is incorporated by reference from Note 1 "Summary of Significant Accounting Policies" contained in Part II, Item 8, "Financial Statements and Supplementary Data."
ITEM 7A. QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE DISCLOSURES ABOUT MARKET RISK
Information required by this Item 7A is incorporated by reference from Part II,
Item 7, "Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results
of Operations" under the headings "Investments" and "Market Risk."
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