By Kirk Maltais 



  --Wheat for July delivery fell 1.1% to $5.15 1/4 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade Monday as grains traders expect the USDA to report strong gains in winter wheat crop development. 


  --Corn for July delivery fell 0.8% to $3.23 1/4 a bushel. 


  --Soybeans for July delivery fell 0.1% to $8.40 1/2 a bushel. 


  HIGHLIGHTS 


  Too Much Progress?: The USDA's planting progress report, released at 4 pm ET Monday, is expected to show big gains in wheat planting over the past week. "The trade will be looking for winter wheat to be 85% headed, against 68% on our last report, with harvest numbers expected around 4%, " said Charlie Sernatinger of ED&F Man Capital. The weather in the Midwest is expected to stay supportive for the planting and growth of crops across the board, putting pressure on the CBOT as a whole Monday. 


  Tension Headaches: Also weighing on grains are worries about renewed U.S.-China tensions. It's unclear if China has instructed state grain buyers to stop buying from the U.S. But some traders say China simply cannot ignore U.S. supplies when making purchase decisions. "Soybeans quickly traded back into positive territory on thoughts that China will have no choice but to return soon, while corn and wheat are still negative," said Arlan Suderman of INTL FCStone. 


  INSIGHT 


  Coming Up Short: Exports coming from the U.S. fell 29.9% in April, the biggest one-month decline since 2002, according to Panjiva, the supply chain research unit of S&P Global Market Intelligence. While the main factor was a 70.8% decrease in auto shipments from the U.S., exports of grain and meat products to China also contributed to the fall, Panjiva said. Food exports overall dropped 5.3%. "The slide would suggest Chinese plans to boost commodities purchasing under the phase 1 trade deal between the two countries has yet to have a significant effect," the firm said. 


  Comfortable Cotton: Cotton futures on the Intercontinental Exchange traded at their highest level since mid-March, finishing up 4.3% at over 60 cents per pound. The reason for today's uptick is the belief China may not opt to cut its purchasing of U.S. cotton, even if it does stop purchasing U.S. soybeans and other agricultural products. "Traders are viewing cotton as a better alternative to be long in the ag space over soybeans, as China cotton commitments on U.S. cotton thus far have not been altered or recently reduced from either COFCO or Sinograin," said Josh Graves of RJO Futures. 


  Strong Finish: The U.S. soybean crop is expected to post a big jump toward completing planting of 83.5 million acres of soybeans this year. Roughly 82% to 85% of that crop is expected to show as planted in the USDA's weekly crop progress report, said Tomm Pfitzenmaier of Summit Commodity Brokerage. Last week, 65% of the crop had been planted - well above last year's 26%. Meanwhile, corn progress is expected between 90%-95%, and today's report will be the first to show the condition of the soybean crop. 


  AHEAD: 


  --The EIA releases its weekly update on ethanol production and inventories at 10:30 a.m. ET Wednesday. 


  --The USDA will release its latest weekly export sales numbers at 8:30 a.m. ET Thursday. 


  --The CFTC releases its weekly commitment of traders report at 3:30 p.m. ET Friday. 


  Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com