Banque national de Belgique : Press release - NAI - Quarterly aggregates (2019-III) PDF

National Accounts Institute

2019-11-29

PRESS RELEASE

Links:	NBB.Stat	General information

Economic activity up by 0.4 % in the third quarter of 2019

• Domestic employment picked up by 0.4 % in the third quarter of 2019

Economic growth

In the third quarter of 2019, seasonally and calendar adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) grew by

0.4 % in volume terms compared with the previous quarter. On an annual basis, economic activity rose by 1.6 %.

In comparison to the previous quarter, value added grew only moderately in industry (+0.1 %), and more markedly in the services sector (+0.4 %) and in construction (+1.3 %). The trend observed in services was influenced by a specific transaction covering a wide-ranging R&D cooperation agreement being recorded in the national accounts. This transaction has had a positive incidence on quarter-on-quarter GDP growth to the tune of about 0.1 of a percentage point.

Households and government stepped up their consumption expenditure by respectively 0.6 and 0.5 %. Business investment also picked up (+1.0 %). On the other hand, household investment (-1.5 %) and public investment (-0.2 %) recorded a fall.

Net exports of goods and services made a negative contribution to the change in GDP (-0.1 of a percentage point), as the drop in exports (-0.9 %) was slightly more than the decline in imports (-0.8 %).

Employment

In the third quarter of 2019, domestic employment was 0.4 % higher than in the previous quarter. It gained 1.3 % on a year-on-year basis.

Communication	boulevard de Berlaimont 14	phone + 32 2 221 46 28	VAT BE 0203.201.340
National Bank of Belgium Ltd.	BE-1000 BRUSSELS	www.nbb.be	RLP Brussels

2

GDP, QUARTERLY GROWTH VOLUME		GDP AND THE ECONOMIC CYCLE
(data adjusted for seasonal and calendar effects)

			6								15
	Percentage change compared to									10
	4								5
	corresponding quarter of	previous quarter	2								0
	the previous year
										-5
2017 I	2.2	0.8	0								-10
II	1.9	0.3									-15
III	1.7	0.1	-2								-20
IV	2.0	0.8	-4								-25
2018 I	1.5	0.2									-30
II	1.4	0.3	-6								-35
2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
III	1.5	0.2

	IV	1.5	0.8								Quarterly accounts, percentage year-on-year change in GDP
													in volume, calendar adjusted data
	2019 I		1.3		0.0
										(left-hand scale)
	II	1.3	0.3								NBB's synthetic business survey curve, smoothed data
													(right-hand scale)
	III		1.6		0.4

NBB's synthetic business survey curve, seasonally adjusted gross data (right-hand scale)

MAIN COMPONENTS

(percentage change in volume compared to the preceding period, data adjusted for seasonal and calendar effects)

		2017			2018			2019
		IV	I	II	III	IV	I	II		III
	1. Value added
	Industry	1.0	-1.6	-1.1	-0.2	0.7	0.4	-0.4		0.1
	Construction	1.5	1.8	0.7	1.2	1.6	1.0	0.3		1.3
	Services	0.9	0.5	0.6	0.3	0.9	0.0	0.5		0.4
	P.m. GDP	0.8	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.8	0.0	0.3	0.4
	2, Expenditure
	Private consumption expenditure (1)	0.0	0.9	0.4	0.0	0.2	0.3	0.4		0.6
	Final consumption expenditure of general									0.5
	government	0.0	0.0	0.8	-0.4	0.6	0.7	0.7
	Total gross fixed capital formation	2.2	0.6	0.8	0.3	3.2	-0.3	1.5		0.3
	Business	3.2	-0.2	0.8	0.2	3.8	-1.0	1.9		1.0
	Housing	-1.5	1.3	0.3	0.3	2.8	2.5	1.9		-1.5
	Public administration	2.5	4.7	2.0	0.9	0.1	-1.2	-2.0		-0.2
	Domestic demand (excluding inventories)	0.5	0.6	0.6	0.0	1.0	0.2	0.8		0.5
	Change in inventories (2)	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.4	-0.2	-0.5	-0.1		0.0
	Exports of goods and services	3.0	-0.6	-1.3	0.8	1.6	-0.5	0.4		-0.9
	Imports of goods and services	2.9	0.0	-0.6	1.0	1.6	-0.8	0.7		-0.8
	Net exports of goods and services (2)	0.1	-0.4	-0.6	-0.2	0.0	0.3	-0.3		-0.1
	3, Labour market
	Total number of workers	0.3	0.3	0.4	0.5	0.3	0.4	0.3		0.4

1. Including non-profit institutions serving households.
2. Contribution to the change in GDP.

Communication	boulevard de Berlaimont 14	phone + 32 2 221 46 28	VAT BE 0203.201.340
National Bank of Belgium Ltd.	BE-1000 BRUSSELS	www.nbb.be	RLP Brussels