Banque nationale de Belgique : Press release - NAI - Flash estimate and quarterly accounts (2019-IV) PDF

National Accounts Institute

2020-01-30

PRESS RELEASE

Links:

Publication

NBB.Stat

General information

Just like in the third quarter of 2019, the fourth quarter of the year recorded a

0.4 % increase in economic activity

• The National Bank of Belgium confirms its estimate of 0.4 % economic growth in the third quarter of 2019 and foresees a similar evolution for the fourth quarter. This results in an economic growth in 2019 of 1.4 %.
• Domestic employment grew by 0.5 % in the third quarter of 2019.

Economic growth

In the third quarter of 2019, real GDP adjusted for seasonal and calendar effects added 0.4 % on the previous quarter, with value added edging ahead in industry (+0.5 %), construction (+1.1 %) and services (+0.4 %).

Households increased their consumer spending by 0.7 %, while they invested 1.5 % less in residential properties. Public spending was also up, both on consumption (+0.5 %) and on investment (+1.3 %). Meanwhile, businesses expanded gross fixed capital formation by 0.9 %.

Foreign demand, by contrast, fell, with exports of goods and services 0.4 % down. The decline in goods and service imports was limited to 0.3 %, causing net exports to make a negative contribution to growth (-0.1 percentage point).

According to the flash estimate, real GDP adjusted for seasonal and calendar effects in the fourth quarter of 2019 was 0.4 % up on the previous quarter, taking GDP growth relative to the comparable quarter of 2018 to 1.2 %.

For the year 2019 as a whole, GDP growth would increase by 1.4 %.

Employment

In the third quarter of 2019, domestic employment added 23,800 people (+0.5 %) quarter-on-quarter and

1.6 % on a yearly basis. The advance was mainly down to employment in services, in particular in services to business, along with growth in health and care and in trade, transport and horeca. The volume of work by employees rose by 0.2 % relative to the previous quarter and by 1.0 % on the corresponding quarter of the previous year.

Communication	boulevard de Berlaimont 14	phone + 32 2 221 46 28	VAT BE 0203.201.340
National Bank of Belgium Ltd.	BE-1000 BRUSSELS	www.nbb.be	RLP Brussels

				GDP, QUARTERLY GROWTH IN VOLUME				GDP AND THE ECONOMIC CYCLE
				(data adjusted for seasonal and calendar effects)
							Percentage change compared to				6				15
																	10
							Corresponding quarter of	previous quarter				4
												5
							the previous year

2017 I	2.2	0.8	2	0
II	1.9	0.3		-5
III	1.7	0.1	0	-10

																							-15
	IV		2.0		0.8				-2
																			-20
	2018 I		1.5		0.2																		-25
	II		1.4		0.3				-4
																			-30
	III		1.5		0.2
																				-35
									-6
	IV		1.5		0.8
						2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
	2019 I		1.3		0.0
	II		1.3		0.3								Quarterly accounts, percentage year-on-year change in GDP
	III		1.6		0.4								in volume, data adjusted for seasonal and calendar effects
													(left-hand scale)
	IV		1.2		0.4

"Flash" estimate, idem (left-hand scale)

GDP, ANNUAL GROWTH IN VOLUME

(percentage changes, data adjusted for seasonal and calendar effects)

2016		1.5
2017	2.0
2018	1.5

NBB's synthetic business survey curve, smoothed data (right-hand scale)

NBB's synthetic business survey curve, seasonally adjusted gross data (right-hand scale)

	2019			1.4e
			MAIN COMPONENTS
			(percentage change in volume compared to the preceding period, data adjusted for seasonal and calendar effects)
							2017							2018						2019
								IV		I		II		III		IV		I		II	III
			1. Value added
			Industry			1.0		-1.6		-1.1	-0.2	0.7	0.4	-0.4		0.5
			Construction			1.5		1.8			0.7		1.2		1.6		1.0		0.3		1.1
			Services			0.9		0.5			0.6		0.3		0.9		0.0		0.5		0.4
			P.m. GDP			0.8		0.2			0.3		0.2		0.8		0.0		0.3		0.4
			2. Expenditure
			Private consumption expenditure (1)			0.0		0.9			0.4		0.0		0.2		0.1		0.5		0.7
			Final consumption expenditure of general																		0.5
			government			0.0		0.0			0.8		-0.4		0.6		0.0		0.8
			Total gross fixed capital formation			2.2		0.6			0.8		0.3		3.2		-0.3		0.6		0.4
			Business			3.2		-0.2			0.8		0.2		3.8		-1.0		0.5		0.9
			Housing			-1.5		1.3			0.3		0.3		2.8		2.5		1.9		-1.5
			Public administration			2.5		4.7			2.0		0.9		0.1		-0.9		-0.8		1.3
			Domestic demand (excl. changes in stocks)		0.5		0.6			0.6		0.0		1.0		0.0		0.6		0.6
			Changes in stocks (2)			0.1		0.1			0.3		0.4		-0.2		-0.3		0.0		0.0
			Exports of goods and services			3.0		-0.6			-1.3		0.8		1.6		-0.4		0.2		-0.4
			Imports of goods and services			2.9		0.0			-0.6		1.0		1.6		-0.8		0.5		-0.3
			Net exports of goods and services (2)			0.1		-0.4			-0.6		-0.2		0.0		0.3		-0.2		-0.1
			3. Labour market
			Total number of workers			0.3		0.3			0.4		0.4		0.3		0.4		0.3		0.5
			Number of hours worked by employees			0.5		0.3			0.4		0.3		0.3		0.4		0.2		0.2

1. Including non-profit institutions serving households.
2. Contribution to the change in GDP.

Communication	boulevard de Berlaimont 14	phone + 32 2 221 46 28	VAT BE 0203.201.340
National Bank of Belgium Ltd.	BE-1000 BRUSSELS	www.nbb.be	RLP Brussels