-Revenue growth contingent on the listings environment
-
-Cost reductions may make it possible to meet forecasts
A lack of new property listings for sale in
In the first half national residential listings declined -14%, with
The company may have maintained its commitment to the rate of revenue growth exceeding the rate of cost growth but acknowledges that the revenue growth is contingent on the listings environment.
Residential volumes were negative in January, albeit this is usually a very low listings month, and Credit Suisse suspects, given its findings, that both
Initial data from January suggests any rebound in property listings is not as strong as
Revenue
Morgans downgrades earnings estimates to reflect the weak start to 2020 but still assumes a rebound in the second half. The stock is trading well above valuation and the broker retains a Reduce rating. To some extent the valuation impact has been offset by a decision to upgrade FY22 volume growth forecasts, with the broker believing "the longer the slump the steeper the rebound".
REA has removed more than -
Divisions/Products
The SmartLine mortgage broking business reported its worst half-year since the company's investment as the volume of homes financed fell. However, REA has assured the market the business is improving and new applications are on the rise.
The company believes it still has room to grow the Premiere All share of subscriptions.
While agents don't push back much against the annual price increases as the cost is borne by the vendors,
Meanwhile, new products such as AgentMatch are proving hard to get going. There was some anticipation that AgentMatch,
Credit Suisse had expected that AgentMatch would expand the addressable market but management has stopped charging agents on an "per lead" basis which indicates this is not a straightforward proposition.
Hence, any monetisation opportunity is effectively pushed out, and this was the main negative the broker derived from the results. Credit Suisse agrees agents may be sceptical about a product which could bring portals closer to capturing a portion of agent commissions.
Morgan Stanley assesses the results and outlook confirm a cyclical recovery is underway. The issue is simply about the extent and whether listings bounce back strongly. The broker remains confident the risks for REA are skewed to the upside on a 12-18 month view, estimating second half operating earnings (EBITDA) growth of 37% is required to achieve full year consensus estimates of around
FNArena's database has one Buy rating (Morgan Stanley), two Hold and three Sell. The consensus target is
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