National Bank of Greece S A : Global Economy & Markets, Weekly Roundup 12/05/20

Global Markets Roundup

National Bank of Greece | Economic Research Division | May 12, 2020

N A T I O N A L B A N Κ

O F G R E E C E

Risk assets were significantly higher in April due to the flattening of the pandemic curve and substantial monetary and fiscal stimuli

• Risk assets have rallied strongly since mid-March, albeit the pace of gains has moderated over the past three weeks. The effectiveness of social distancing measures vis-a-vis curbing the spread of

COVID-19, as well as massive monetary policy stimulus, especially by the Federal Reserve, have succeeded in lowering risk and liquidity premia, driving equity prices higher and corporate bond spreads lower (see graph below for S&P500 Equity Risk Premium). Moreover, abnormal Price/NAV discounts evident in major corporate bond ETFs have normalised (see graph page 3). Finally, expansionary fiscal policy is expected to cushion the blow to household income due to the lockdown, aiming to support, through loans and grants, viable companies that experience liquidity mismatches.

• Overall, the SPX has increased by 30% at 2930 since its trough in mid-March and has overperformed its Developed-market peers by a wide margin. Corporate bond spreads have recouped a significant portion of their COVID-19 widening (USD IG: 60%, USD HY: 50%, EUR IG: 40% and EUR HY:40%). Volatility has declined considerably, particularly in the Sovereign spectrum, as central banks have de facto committed to unlimited amount of purchases, at least as long as the pandemic distorts proper economic functioning. Equity and foreign exchange volatility has also subsided, albeit it remains above pre-crisis levels (see graph page 3).
• As the post coronavirus re-opening begins gradually, we have constructed a Social Distancing Index (SDI) per basic economy based on Google's community mobility report (see graph below). The report tracks movement trends over time across six different categories of places, but we choose to

use the more relevant ones, i.e., i) retail and recreation; ii) groceries and pharmacies; iii) transit stations; and iv) work places.With the exception of Japan, SDIs of advanced economies have stabilised, but remain at very low levels, suggesting extreme values of social distancing. We expect these SDIs to gradually rise, albeit failing to revert to pre-coronaviruslevels during the course of 2020. As a result, certain sectors/companies such as mass tourism, mass recreation, energy and materials, airlines and autos are expected to remain ultra sensitive to the underlying health of the economy.

• The Federal Reserve expanded its balance sheet by circa $2.5 trillion to $7 trillion (30% of 2019 GDP) in the past two months, and committed to directly support the credit markets via its primary and secondary market facilities with a "firepower" of up to $750 billion. Moreover, after having cut its policy rates by 150 bps to 0%-0.25%, the Federal Reserve expects to maintain this range until it is confident that the economy has weathered the sharp decline in economic activity and the associated job losses, with futures pricing in zero rates for three years. Note that the US unemployment rate has risen sharply to 15% in April (see Economics).
• On the other side of the Atlantic, the ECB expanded its balance sheet by €690bn to €5.5 trillion (40% of 2019 GDP) through its regular and pandemic-related asset purchases and loans (conditional and unconditional) to financial institutions(cont'd on page 2).

Ilias TsirigotakisAC

Head of Global

Markets Research

210-3341517 [e-mail]

Panagiotis Bakalis

210-3341545 [e-mail]

Vasiliki Karagianni

[e-mail]

Leonidas Patsios

210-3341553 [e-mail]

Table of Contents

Overview_p1

Economics & Markets_p2,3

Forecasts & Outlook_p4

Event Calendar_p5

Markets Monitor_p6

ChartRoom_p7,8

Market Valuation_p9,10

	US Equity Risk Premium																				Social Distancing Index
	%			Definition: 12m Forward Earnings Yield (Inverse of P/E) - Real Yield of US	%	US	UK	ES	IT	GER	JN	SK	GR
			Treasury 5 to 7-year Bonds
week	12																										12	20
11																										11
10																										10	0
9																										9
the	8																										8
7																										7	-20
of	6		Period Average																				6
5																					5
																									-40
Charts	4																										4
3																										3	-60
2																										2
1																										1
	0																										0	-80
	-1																										-1
	-2																										-2		Decreasing Values suggest Increasing Social Distancing and vice versa
							02																18			-100
	95	96	97	98	99	00	01	03	04	05	06	07	08	09	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	19	20
		28-Feb	8-Mar	17-Mar	26-Mar	4-Apr	13-Apr	22-Apr	1-May
	Jan-	Jan-	Jan-	Jan-	Jan-	Jan-	Jan-	Jan-	Jan-	Jan-	Jan-	Jan-	Jan-	Jan-	Jan-	Jan-	Jan-	Jan-	Jan-	Jan-	Jan-	Jan-	Jan-	Jan-	Jan-	Jan-
	Source: NBG Research, Thomson Reuters Datastream														Source: NBG Research, Citigroup, Google LLC "Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports"

See page 11 for disclosures and analyst certification

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NBG Global Markets Roundup | Economics & Markets Section

N A T I O N A L B A N Κ

O F G R E E C E

…The recent ruling by the German Constitutional Court that both the European Court of Justice (ECJ) and the ECB had acted ultra vires with regard to whether the ECB's decisions on the public sector purchase programme (PSPP) satisfy the principle of proportionality, inserted fresh bouts of volatility in the euro area periphery bond market at least for the next three months, on top of the deterioration in fiscal prospects for certain economies (see graph page 3). Nevertheless, the ruling came with mild positives such as the PSPP does not violate the prohibition on monetary financing. We expect the ECB to proceed relatively unconstrained in the short term, and do whatever is necessary to support the euro area economy, along with the European Commission, EIB and ESM (details regarding the Recovery Fund are expected in mid-May). Note that the ESM revealed the details of its Pandemic Crisis Support which provides broadly unconditional credit lines up to 2% of each euro area member-state GDP, at least until end-2022. The loans would have a maximum average maturity of 10 years with a margin of 0.10% per annum over ESM funding, an annual service fee of 0.05% and an up-front service fee of 0.25%.

US labor market conditions deteriorated in April due to the public health crisis

• US employment has been hit hard by the pandemic. As far as the monthly labor report for April is concerned, nonfarm payrolls decreased sharply by 20.5mn (consensus for -22mn),with leisure & hospitality unsurprisingly declining the most (c. ⅓ of total), albeit losses were broad based across industries. Total household employment (including the self-employedand agricultural workers) fell by 22.4 mn, following heavy losses in the previous month by 3mn (all the aforementioned declines outpaced by a wide margin any previous record | -1.2mnin January 2009 for total household employment). As a result, the unemployment rate rose to 14.7% in April, from 4.4% in March (compared with a 50-yearlow of 3.5% in February), the worst outcome since the Great Depression (c. 25% in 1933).
• As the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) acknowledged, that outcome is likely underestimated due to technical issues. First, for a person to be counted as unemployed, participation in the labor force is required, which in turn requires that person to be actively seeking employment. However, for a large number of people, this was not possible due to the restrictions of movements in force. Therefore, these persons were not counted as unemployed. Instead, they dropped out of the calculation of the labor force participation rate which decreased by 2.5% to 60.2%. The aforementioned factor distorted positively the official unemployment rate figure by as much as c. 3.5%. Furthermore, the BLS noted that, in the latest survey, many participants in the labor force were recorded as employed but absent from work due to
  "other reasons", while they should have been classified as unemployed on temporary layoff. Without that accounting error, BLS estimates that the unemployment rate would have been c. 5% higher than reported. Note also that a broader measure of labor market slack, the U-6 unemployment rate (which includes the unemployed, part-time workers for economic reasons, and those workers marginally attached to the labor force), rose significantly to 22.8% in April, mainly due to a large number of previously full- time employees being forced to work part-time. Importantly, the data reference period for the monthly report was for the week April 12th to 18th, after which substantial declines in employment

have continued, as indicated by the new claims for unemployment insurance. Indeed, initial jobless claims posted a rise of 7mn cumulatively in the two weeks from April 18th to May 1st. On a positive note, the vast majority of newly unemployed are on temporary layoff i.e., persons that either have been given a date to return to work by their employer or expect to be recalled to their job within 6 months. Thus, to the extent that such expectations will be confirmed, the recovery of the labor market post-lockdown could be faster than usual. Finally, recall that direct comparisons between the official unemployment rate in the US and other regions could be misleading in the current circumstances, due to methodological issues. For example, as noted above, US workers on temporary furlough will likely be counted as unemployed, a different norm compared with Europe (as a result, official unemployment rate figures in European countries will likely turn out relatively smaller).

US bank lending standards tightened substantially late in Q1, in view of the negative repercussions from Covid- 19

• The Fed's Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) for
  Q1:20 pointed to a broad based tightening in banks' credit standards across loan categories. Overall, the survey results were heavily affected by the pandemic, with banks reporting that the changes in both standards and demand across loan categories occurred late in March (the responses were gathered between March 23rd and April 3rd) as the economic outlook shifted following the rapid global spread of COVID-19.Regarding corporates, 42% of banks reported tightening lending standards for commercial and industrial (C&I) loans to large and middle corporations and 40% to small firms. According to the respondents, this was mainly due to a less favorable or more uncertain economic outlook, a worsening of industry-specificproblems and reduced tolerance for risk. Banks also noted that they focused on existing clients (to assist them in meeting their liquidity needs and more generally to support their actions to mitigate the effect of the crisis), rather than granting loans to new ones. Across the categories of commercial real estate (non-farm non-residentialloans, multi- family loans, construction and land development lending), standards also tightened substantially. Regarding households, a significant tightening was reported for credit standards across consumer loan categories (credit cards, auto loans, other consumer loans) in Q1:20 and a relatively more modest one for mortgage loans.
• Developments regarding credit appetite were mixed. As far as corporates are concerned, a net share of 8% of banks reported stronger demand for C&I loans from large and middle sized firms, with an increase in precautionary demand for cash and liquidity (in view of efforts to mitigate the effect of the pandemic crisis on their businesses, with a strong interest for respective newly introduced credit facilities) and a decrease in internally generated funds, more than offsetting the downward effect on demand from a fall in investments in plants or equipment and a decline in customers' merger or acquisition financing needs. Recall that actual lending data by commercial banks are in line with the SLOOS survey's findings, with the annual pace of growth of C&I loans at a record (since 1973) +25% yoy, on average, during April. Meanwhile, appetite weakened for commercial real estate loans. Regarding households, respondents cited stronger demand for mortgage

loans and weaker demand for all categories of consumer loans.

National Bank of Greece | Economic Research Division | Global Markets Analysis

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National Bank of Greece | Economic Research Division | Global Markets Analysis

NBG Global Markets Roundup | Economics & Markets Section

Equities

• Global equity markets rose in the past week, due to positive news regarding a potential Covid-19treatment, optimism that an escalation of US-Chinatrade war will be avoided, and on hopes that the global economy is bottoming as lockdowns gradually begin to be lifted. Weak (but in some cases better-than-expected) economic data and fears of a rise in infections did not affect investors' risk appetite. Overall, the MSCI ACWI ended the week up by +2.4% (-13.3%ytd), with developed markets (+2.8% wow) overperforming their emerging market peers (-0.6%wow). In the US, the S&P500, after two negative weeks, rose by 3.5% wow, with the Energy sector leading the increase, on the back of higher oil prices. The Nasdaq rose by 6% wow, entering positive territory YTD for the first time since March 3rd. The equity volatility index (VIX index) declined to 28% in the past week, its lowest level since February 26th. As far as the earnings season is concerned, out of the 438 companies that have reported results so far, 65% have surpassed analyst estimates. Consensus EPS expectations for Q1:20 stand at -13.6%yoy from -14.3%yoy in the past week, with positive earnings surprises reported by companies in the Industrials sector being the key players. The forward 12-monthP/E ratio is 20.4, which is above four historical averages: 5- year (16.7), 10-year(15.1), 15-year(14.6), and 20-year(15.4). It is the first time the S&P 500 recorded a forward 12-monthP/E ratio of 20 or higher since April 2002. On the other side of the Atlantic, the Eurostoxx rose by 0.1% wow, with the Retail sector leading the increase.

Fixed Income

• Government bond yields were mixed in the past week. The US Treasury

Department announced record borrowing plans of $3 tn in Q2:20 (more than

double the annual figure of 2019 and five times larger than previous quarter

record in Q2:08) and plans to shift financing to longer-dated tenors over the

coming quarters. As a result, the US 10-year yield rose by 7 bps at 0.69%, while

2-year yields decreased by 3 bps wow to 0.16%, having posted a record low

intra-week. In the UK, the 10-year yield declined by 1 bp wow to 0.24%. In

Germany, the 10-year Bund yield ended the week up by 5 bps to -0.54%.

Periphery bond yields rose, following the ruling of the German constitutional

court on the legality of the ECB's decisions on the Public Sector Purchase

Programme (PSPP). Indeed, in Italy, the 10-year yield increased by 8 bps wow to

1.85%, in Portugal by 11 bps wow to 0.92%, in Spain by 7 bps wow to 0.80% and

in Greece by 3 bps wow to 2.19%. Corporate bond spreads were also mixed in

the past week, as IG corporate debt issuance continues at a record pace, with US

										N A T I O N A L B A N Κ
										O F G R E E C E
Implied Volatility Indices
		VIX Index		MOVE Index		G7 FX Volatility Index
500											500
450											450
400											400
350											350
300											300
250											250
200											200
150											150
100											100
50											50
0	Jul-19										0
Jun-19	Aug-19	Sep-19	Oct-19	Nov-19	Dec-19	Jan-20	Feb-20	Mar-20	Apr-20	May-20

Source: NBG Research, Bloomberg, June 2019 = 100, VIX is S&P500 30-day implied Vol. Index. The MOVE Index tracks the movement in US Treasury yield volatility implied by current prices of one-monthover-the-counter options on 2Y, 5Y, 10Y and 30Y USTs

Graph 1.

10-year Government Bonds Spreads Over Bund

bps			Italy				Spain				Portugal			bps
400															400
350															350
300															300
250															250
200															200
150															150
100															100
50																50
Jan-17	Apr-17	Jul-17	Oct-17	Jan-18	Apr-18	Jul-18	Oct-18	Jan-19	Apr-19	Jul-19	Oct-19	Jan-20	Apr-20

Source: NBG Research, Bloomberg

Graph 2.

Corporate Bonds ETFs Price/NAV Discount

		USD IG-LQD		EUR IG-EUN5
		USD HY-HYG		EUR HY-EUNW

spreads overperforming their euro area peers. Indeed, US high yield spreads fell

by 18 bps to 752 bps, while their euro area counterparts were up by 17 bps to

652 bps. In the Investment Grade spectrum, US spreads, increased by 4 bps to

222 bps and their euro area counterparts rose by 6 bps to 189 bps.

FX and Commodities

• In foreign exchange markets, the euro fell in the past week on the back of

weaker-than-expected economic data, the ruling of the German Constitutional

Court and the ominous economic forecasts by European Commission. Overall,

the euro declined by 1.3% against the US dollar to $1.08, by -1.6% against the

Japanese Yen to ¥115.46, reaching a 3-year low intra-week. The British Pound

6%

4%

2%

0%

-2%

-4%

-6%

1-Jan8-Jan15-Jan22-Jan29-Jan

Source: NBG Research,

6%

4%

2%

0%

-2%

-4%

-6%

5-Feb12-Feb19-Feb26-Feb4-Mar11-Mar18-Mar25-Mar1-Apr8-Apr	15-Apr	22-Apr29-Apr6-May	13-May
Thomson Reuters Datastream

decreased by -0.7% against the US Dollar to $1.24 and by -0.6% against the euro

to €/0.87, after Bank of England projections and due to cautiousness about the

easing of the lockdown as coronavirus deaths in the UK exceeded 30,000 (the

highest in Europe). Finally, in commodities, oil prices rallied in the past week,

recording gains for two consecutive weeks, for the first time since February 21st,

due to a smaller-than-expected inventory build in the US, production cuts

worldwide and signs that global demand is rising as economies gradually re-

open. Oil inventories increased for a 15th consecutive week (+4.6 million barrels

to 532 million barrels for the week ending May 1st), albeit at a slower pace,

recording the smallest weekly increase since March 20th. Overall, Brent increased

by 22% wow (-56.9% ytd) to $28.6/barrel and WTI rose by 23.8% wow (-59.9%

ytd) to $24.5/barrel.

Graph 3.

Quote of the week: "We are an independent institution, accountable to the European Parliament and driven by our mandate, …we will continue to do whatever is needed, whatever is necessary, to deliver on that mandate. Undeterred.", President of the European Central Bank,

Christine Lagarde, May 7th 2020.

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NBG Global Markets Roundup | Economic & Markets Forecasts

N A T I O N A L B A N Κ

O F G R E E C E

Interest Rates & Foreign Exchange Forecasts

10-Yr Gov. Bond Yield (%)	May 8th	3-month	6-month	12-month	Official Rate (%)	May 8th	3-month6-month12-month
Germany	-0,54	-0,50	-0,40	-0,30	Euro area	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00
US	0,69	0,90	1,00	1,20	US	0,25	0,25	0,25	0,25
UK	0,24	0,50	0,55	0,70	UK	0,10	0,10	0,10	0,10
Japan	0,00	-0,10	-0,07	-0,02	Japan	-0,10	-0,10	-0,10	-0,10
Currency	May 8th	3-month	6-month	12-month		May 8th	3-month	6-month12-month
EUR/USD	1,08	1,13	1,13	1,15	USD/JPY	107	105	105	104
EUR/GBP	0,87	0,87	0,87	0,87	GBP/USD	1,24	1,30	1,30	1,33
EUR/JPY	115	119	119	119
Forecasts at end of period

Economic Forecasts

United States	2018a	Q1:19a	Q2:19a	Q3:19a	Q4:19a	2019a	Q1:20a	Q2:20f	Q3:20f	Q4:20f	2020f
Real GDP Growth (YoY) (1)	2,9	2,7	2,3	2,1	2,3	2,3	0,3	-10,9	-7,6	-5,3	-5,9
Real GDP Growth (QoQ saar) (2)	-	3,1	2,0	2,1	2,1	-	-4,8	-36,6	18,2	12,6	-
Private Consumption	3,0	1,1	4,6	3,1	1,8	2,6	-7,6	-43,4	22,1	15,6	-7,8
Government Consumption	1,7	2,9	4,8	1,7	2,5	2,3	0,7	16,7	13,0	5,6	6,1
Investment	4,6	3,2	-1,4	-0,8	-0,6	1,3	-2,6	-30,2	8,9	8,2	-5,9
Residential	-1,5	-1,1	-2,9	4,6	6,5	-1,5	21,0	-38,3	8,2	6,0	-1,3
Non-residential	6,4	4,4	-1,0	-2,3	-2,5	2,1	-8,6	-27,4	9,1	8,7	-7,1
Inventories Contribution	0,1	0,5	-1,0	0,0	-1,2	0,1	-0,6	-1,6	0,6	0,5	-0,6
Net Exports Contribution	-0,4	0,8	-0,8	-0,2	1,9	-0,2	1,8	-2,0	-1,3	-1,0	0,2
Exports	3,0	4,2	-5,7	0,9	2,1	0,0	-8,7	-23,9	5,4	4,7	-6,1
Imports	4,4	-1,5	0,0	1,8	-8,4	1,0	-15,3	-9,2	11,4	9,0	-5,4
Inflation (3)	2,5	1,7	1,8	1,7	2,1	1,8	2,1	0,5	0,6	0,9	1,0
Euro Area	2018a	Q1:19a	Q2:19a	Q3:19a	Q4:19a	2019a	Q1:20f	Q2:20f	Q3:20f	Q4:20f	2020f
Real GDP Growth (YoY)	1,9	1,4	1,2	1,3	1,0	1,2	-3,3	-11,6	-7,9	-5,8	-7,2
Real GDP Growth (QoQ saar)	-	1,9	0,6	1,2	0,4	-	-14,4	-29,7	19,1	10,0	-
Private Consumption	1,4	1,7	0,7	2,0	0,5	1,3	-17,3	-37,8	24,2	15,6	-9,1
Government Consumption	1,1	1,9	1,8	2,3	1,4	1,7	0,9	5,4	4,3	3,8	2,7
Investment	2,4	3,7	21,4	-14,4	18,9	5,5	-29,8	-39,7	36,9	19,9	-10,1
Inventories Contribution	0,0	-1,6	0,4	-0,7	-0,4	-0,5	-0,3	-0,7	0,1	0,3	-0,3
Net Exports Contribution	0,4	1,4	-4,6	3,9	-3,4	-0,5	3,0	-1,1	-1,4	-3,1	-0,3
Exports	3,3	3,8	0,2	2,6	1,2	2,5	-4,6	-29,2	26,4	9,9	-3,5
Imports	2,7	1,1	11,0	-5,4	9,2	3,8	-10,7	-29,8	32,6	17,9	-3,2
Inflation	1,8	1,4	1,4	1,0	1,0	1,2	1,1	0,3	0,5	0,5	0,6

a: Actual, f: Forecasts, 1. Seasonally adjusted YoY growth rate, 2. Seasonally adjusted annualized QoQ growth rate, 3. Year-to-year average % change

12-Month View & Key Factors for Global Markets

	US	Euro Area	Japan	UK
	+ Massive Fiscal loosening will support the economy	+Still high equity risk premium relative to other	+Still aggressive QE and "yield-curve" targeting by the	+65% of FTSE100 revenues from abroad
	but wont avoid a recession	regions	BoJ	+Undemanding valuations in relative terms
	- 2020 EPS growth expectations have further room to	+ Modest fiscal loosening in 2020 excluding Germany	- Signs of policy fatigue regarding structural reforms
	fall from +2%. Earnings will contract in 2020	(5% of GDP)	and fiscal discipline	- Elevated Policy uncertainty to remain due to the
Markets	- Forget aggresive share buybacks for now due to	- 2020-2021 EPS estimates may turn pessimistic as	- Strong appetite for foreign assets	outcome of the Brexit negotiating process
political pressures	economic growth fails to pick up	- JPY appreciation in a risk-off scenario could hurt
	- Peaking profit margins	- Political uncertainty (Italy, Brexit) could intensify	exporters
Equity	- Protectionism and trade wars
- P/Es (Valuations) are in line with long-term averages
	despite P/E contraction of more than 20% since
	February highs (19x)
	Neutral/Positive	Neutral	Neutral	Neutral/Negative
	+Valuations appear rich with term-premium below 0%	+Valuations appear excessive compared with long-	+Sizeable fiscal deficits	+Elevated Policy uncertainty to remain due to the
	+Sizeable fiscal deficit	term fundamentals	+Restructuring efforts to be financed by fiscal policy	outcome of the Brexit negotiating process
Bonds	+Underlying inflation pressures if Fed seek makeup	- Political Risks	measures	+Inflation expectations could drift higher ahead of
strategies	- Fragile growth outlook	- Safe haven demand	EU/UK negotiations
Government	- Global search for yield by non-US investors	- Medium-term inflation expectations remain low	- Extremely dovish central bank	-The BoE is expected to remain on hold with risks
- Fed: Unlimited QE purchases
	continues	- ECB QE net purchases	- Yield-targeting of 10-Year JGB at around 0%	towards rate cuts
	- Safe haven demand	- ECB QE "stock" effect		- Slowing economic growth post-Brexit
	- Fed to remain at ZLB in the course of 2020-2021
	Slightly higher yields expected	Higher yields expected	Stable yields expected	Higher yields expected but with Brexit risk
	premia working on both directions
	+Safe-haven demand	+Reduced short-term tail risks	+Safe haven demand	+Transitions phase negotiations
Exchange	- Fed's interest rate differential disappeared following	+Higher core bond yields	+More balanced economic growth recovery (long-	+Valuations appear undemanding with REER 6%
cuts to 0%-0.25%	+Current account surplus	term)	below its 15-year average
		- Sluggish growth	+Inflation is bottoming out	- Sizeable Current account deficit
		- Deflation concerns	- Additional Quantitative Easing by the Bank of Japan	- Elevated Policy uncertainty to remain due to the
Foreign		- The ECB's monetary policy to remain extra loose	if inflation does not approach 2%	outcome of the Referendum and the negotiating
	(Targeted-LTROs, ABSs, Quantitative Easing)		process
	Broadly Flat EUR against the USD with high	Broadly Flat EUR against the USD with high	Slightly higher JPY	Higher GBP expected but with Brexit risk premia
	volatility around $1.10	volatility around $1.10	working on both directions

National Bank of Greece | Economic Research Division | Global Markets Analysis

4

NBG Global Markets Roundup | Economic News & Events Calendar

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O F G R E E C E

Economic Calendar

In the US, attention turns to the weekly initial and continuing jobless claims for a more updated view of labor market conditions and economic activity data for April (retail sales, industrial production, homebuilding) for a better assessment of the economic outlook.

In the euro area, retail sales and industrial production for March are released, as well as the 2nd preliminary estimate for Q1 GDP.

In the United Kingdom, attention turns to Q1 GDP, with the monthly GDP estimate for March being especially monitored to assess the early effects from the pandemic.

Finally, in China, economic activity data for April (retail sales, industrial production, fixed assets investment) will be highly anticipated.

Economic News Calendar for the period: May 5 - May 18, 2020

US Unemployment Insurance Claims

mn					Continuing Jobless Claims
												mn
					Initial Jobless Claims
30											Forecasts	30
25													25
20													20
15													15
10													10
5													5
0													0
Jan-14	Jul-14	Jan-15	Jul-15	Jan-16	Jul-16	Jan-17	Jul-17	Jan-18	Jul-18	Jan-19	Jul-19	Jan-20	Jul-20

Source: NBG Research, FRED Economic Data

Tuesday 5						Wednesday 6						Thursday 7
US		S		A	P	US		S		A	P	US		S		A	P
Trade balance ($bn)	March	-44,2	-	-44,4	-39,8	ADP Employment Change (k)	April	-20550	+ -20236	-149	Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ,	Q1:20	-5,5%	+ -2,5%	1,2%
ISM non-manufacturing	April	38,0	+	41,8	52,5	UK						annualized)
						Markit/CIPS UK Construction	April	21,7	-	8,2	39,3	Unit labor costs (QoQ,	Q1:20	4,5%	+	4,8%	0,9%
						PMI						annualized)		3000	-	3169	3846
						EURO AREA						Initial Jobless Claims (k)	May 2
						Retail sales (MoM)	March	-10,6%	-	-11,2%	0,6%	Continuing Claims (k)	Apr 25	19800	-	22647	18011
						Retail sales (YoY)	March	-5,0%	-	-9,2%	2,5%	UK
						European Commission publishes						BoE announces its intervention	May 7	0,10%		0,10%	0,10%
						Spring Forecasts						rate
												645		645	645
												BoE Asset Purchase Target (£bn)	May
												GERMANY
												Industrial Production (sa, MoM)	March	-7,4%	-	-9,2%	0,3%
												Industrial Production (wda, YoY)	March	-8,9%	- -11,6%	-1,8%
												CHINA
												Exports (YoY)	April	-11,0%+ 3,5%	-6,6%
Friday 8						Monday 11						Imports (YoY)	April	-10,0%- -14,2%	-1,0%
US		S		A	P			S		A	P
Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (k)	April	-22000	+ -20500-870
Change in Private Payrolls (k)	April	-22000	+ -19520-842
Unemployment rate	April	16,0%	+ 14,7%	4,4%
Average Hourly Earnings MoM	April	0,4%	+	4,7%	0,5%
Average Hourly Earnings YoY	April	3,3%	+	7,9%	3,3%
Average weekly hours (hrs)	April	33,5	+	34,2	34,1
Labor Force Participation Rate	April	61,0%	-	60,2%	62,7%
Underemployment Rate	April	..		22,8%	8,7%
Tuesday 12						Wednesday 13						Thursday 14
US		S		A	P	UK		S		A	P	US		S		A	P
CPI (YoY)	April	0,4%		..	1,5%	GDP (QoQ)	Q1:20	-2,5%		..	0,0%	Initial Jobless Claims (k)	May 9	2500		..	3169
Core CPI (YoY)	April	1,7%		..	2,1%	GDP (YoY)	Q1:20	-2,1%		..	1,1%	Continuing Claims (k)	May 2	24800		..	22647
JAPAN						Industrial Production (MoM)	March	-5,5%		..	0,1%	EURO AREA
Coincident Index	March	90,7		..	95,5	Industrial Production (YoY)	March	-9,1%		..	-2,8%	ECB publishes its Economic
Leading Index	March	84,3		..	91,7	Private Consumption (QoQ)	Q1:20	-2,8%		..	0,0%	bulletin
CHINA						Government Spending QoQ	Q1:20	1,3%		..	1,5%
CPI (YoY)	April	3,7%		..	4,3%	Gross Fixed Capital Formation	Q1:20	-2,6%		..	-1,2%
						JAPAN
						Eco Watchers Current Survey	April	10,0		..	14,2
						Eco Watchers Outlook Survey	April	16,1		..	18,8
						EURO AREA
						Industrial Production (sa, MoM)	March	-12,0%		..	-0,1%
						Industrial Production (wda, YoY)	March	-11,9%		..	-1,9%
Friday 15												Monday 18
US		S		A	P	EURO AREA		S		A	P	US		S		A	P
Retail Sales Advance MoM	April	-11,7%		..	-8,4%	GDP (QoQ)	Q1:20	-3,8%		..	-3,8%	NAHB housing market	May	38		..	30
Retail sales ex-autos (MoM)	April	-8,4%		..	-4,2%	GDP (YoY)	Q1:20	-3,3%		..	-3,3%	confidence index
Empire Manufacturing	May	-60,0		..	-78,2	Employment (QoQ)	Q1:20	..		..	0,3%	JAPAN
Industrial Production (MoM)	April	-12,0%		..	-5,4%	Employment (YoY)	Q1:20	..		..	1,1%	GDP (QoQ)	Q1:20	-1,2%		..	-1,8%
University of Michigan	May	68,0		..	71,8	Trade Balance SA (€ bn)	March	17,0		..	25,8	GDP Private Consumption	Q1:20	-1,6%		..	-2,8%
consumer confidence		..		..	49,4	CHINA		1,5%		..	-1,1%	GDP Business Spending (QoQ)	Q1:20	-1,5%		..	-4,6%
Net Long-term TIC Flows ($ bn)	March		Industrial production (YoY)	April
Mortgage delinquencies	Q1:20	..		..	3,77%	Retail sales (YoY)	April	-5,9%		..	-15,8%
Mortgage foreclosures	Q1:20	..		..	0,78%	Money Supply M0 (YoY)	April	10,0%		..	10,8%
GERMANY						Money Supply M1 (YoY)	April	5,7%		..	5,0%
GDP (QoQ)	Q1:20	-2,3%		..	0,0%	Money Supply M2 (YoY)	April	10,3%		..	10,1%
GDP (wda, YoY)	Q1:20	-2,0%		..	0,4%	New Yuan Loans (RMB bn)	April	1300,0		..	2850,0
						Aggregate Financing (RMB bn)	April	2775,0		..	5149,2

Source: NBG Research, Bloomberg

S: Bloomberg Consensus Analysts Survey, A: Actual Outcome, P: Previous Outcome

National Bank of Greece | Economic Research Division | Global Markets Analysis

5

NBG Global Markets Roundup | Financial Markets Monitor

Equity Markets (in local currency)

N A T I O N A L B A N Κ

O F G R E E C E

Developed Markets	Current	1-week	Year-to-Date	1-Year	2-year	Emerging Markets	Current	1-week	Year-to-Date	1-Year
Level	change (%)	change (%)	change (%)	change (%)	Level	change (%)	change (%)	change (%)
US	S&P 500	2930	3,5	-9,3	2,1	8,6	MSCI Emerging Markets	53285	-0,5	-13,3	-7,1
Japan	NIKKEI 225	20179	2,9	-14,7	-5,7	-10,0	MSCI Asia	819	-0,4	-10,3	-3,7
UK	FTSE 100	5936	3,0	-21,3	-17,6	-22,5	China	82	1,3	-4,7	1,3
Canada	S&P/TSX	14967	2,4	-12,3	-8,3	-5,9	Korea	606	-0,6	-12,3	-3,7
Hong Kong	Hang Seng	24230	-1,7	-14,0	-14,4	-20,7	MSCI Latin America	74188	0,6	-25,9	-17,8
Euro area	EuroStoxx	322	0,1	-20,2	-12,0	-18,5	Brazil	256482	0,1	-29,9	-16,2
Germany	DAX 30	10904	0,4	-17,7	-8,9	-15,8	Mexico	34972	3,1	-12,8	-12,2
France	CAC 40	4550	-0,5	-23,9	-14,4	-17,8	MSCI Europe	5023	-1,3	-21,2	-9,0
Italy	FTSE/MIB	17439	-1,4	-25,8	-16,2	-28,1	Russia	1121	-0,3	-17,7	-1,9
Spain	IBEX-35	6783	-2,0	-29,0	-25,4	-33,6	Turkey	1221998	-4,8	-18,7	2,5

World Market Sectors (MSCI Indices)

in US Dollar terms	Current	1-week	Year-to-Date	1-Year	2-year	in local currency	Current	1-week	Year-to-Date	1-Year
Level	change (%)	change (%)	change (%)	change (%)	Level	change (%)	change (%)	change (%)
Energy	125,4	5,8	-36,3	-37,4	-46,8	Energy	132,0	5,8	-34,5	-36,2
Materials	227,7	2,8	-16,3	-6,7	-17,0	Materials	223,3	2,8	-14,3	-5,2
Industrials	217,6	1,6	-21,3	-13,8	-15,6	Industrials	217,1	1,7	-20,6	-13,5
Consumer Discretionary	253,5	3,9	-8,9	-0,9	1,8	Consumer Discretionary	245,9	4,0	-8,4	-0,7
Consumer Staples	227,8	0,5	-9,3	-1,7	5,9	Consumer Staples	231,0	0,7	-8,2	-1,2
Healthcare	274,3	1,8	-1,7	14,9	22,9	Healthcare	272,6	2,0	-1,1	14,9
Financials	89,0	0,4	-29,2	-22,4	-29,1	Financials	90,9	0,4	-27,9	-21,6
IT	316,8	6,4	1,9	21,8	31,9	IT	307,5	6,5	2,1	21,9
Telecoms	72,5	3,1	-6,4	2,2	10,8	Telecoms	76,0	3,1	-6,0	2,3
Utilities	130,6	0,1	-13,0	-2,4	4,9	Utilities	135,6	0,3	-12,0	-1,4

Bond Markets (%)

10-Year Government	Current	Last week	Year Start	One Year	10-year	Government Bond Yield	Current	Last week	Year Start	One Year
Bond Yields	Back	average	Spreads (in bps)	Back
US	0,69	0,61	1,92	2,44	2,31	US Treasuries 10Y/2Y	53	42	35	18
Germany	-0,54	-0,59	-0,19	-0,05	0,99	US Treasuries 10Y/5Y	35	26	23	20
Japan	0,00	-0,02	-0,01	-0,05	0,43	Bunds 10Y/2Y	24	17	42	58
UK	0,24	0,25	0,82	1,13	1,85	Bunds 10Y/5Y	22	18	29	42
Greece	2,19	2,17	1,47	3,54	9,81
Ireland	0,13	0,05	0,12	0,52	3,29	Corporate Bond Spreads	Current	Last week	Year Start	One Year
Italy	1,84	1,76	1,41	2,68	3,08	(in bps)	Back
Spain	0,80	0,72	0,47	0,99	2,85	EM Inv. Grade (IG)	299	296	150	164
Portugal	0,92	0,82	0,44	1,12	4,60	EM High yield	959	971	494	490
						US IG	222	218	101	122
US Mortgage Market	Current	Last week	Year Start	One Year	10-year	US High yield	752	770	360	399
(1. Fixed-rate Mortgage)	Back	average
30-Year FRM1 (%)	3,4	3,4	4,0	4,4	4,2	Euro area IG	189	183	94	117
vs 30Yr Treasury (bps)	202	215	156	155	122	Euro area High Yield	652	635	308	407

Foreign Exchange & Commodities

Foreign Exchange	Current	1-week	1-month	1-Year	Year-to-Date	Commodities	Current	1-week	1-month	1-Year
change (%)	change (%)	change (%)	change (%)	change (%)	change (%)	change (%)
Euro-based cross rates
EUR/USD	1,08	-1,3	-0,2	-3,4	-3,3	Agricultural	299	0,0	-3,0	-4,3
EUR/CHF	1,05	-0,3	-0,3	-7,6	-3,1	Energy	178	15,1	-21,4	-64,1
EUR/GBP	0,87	-0,6	-0,3	1,4	3,3	West Texas Oil ($)	24	23,8	-2,4	-60,3
EUR/JPY	115,46	-1,6	-2,3	-6,2	-5,1	Crude brent Oil ($)	29	22,0	2,9	-59,5
EUR/NOK	11,07	-2,5	-1,1	12,4	12,5	Industrial Metals	1022	2,0	3,1	-14,8
EUR/SEK	10,59	-2,1	-3,2	-2,2	0,8	Precious Metals	1966	1,1	1,9	29,7
EUR/AUD	1,66	-3,0	-4,8	3,4	3,8	Gold ($)	1703	0,1	3,4	32,6
EUR/CAD	1,51	-2,4	-0,8	-0,1	3,6	Silver ($)	15	3,4	3,5	4,9
USD-based cross rates						Baltic Dry Index	514	-16,7	-15,3	-47,2
USD/CAD	1,39	-1,1	-0,6	3,3	7,2	Baltic Dirty Tanker Index	863	-21,9	-19,4	26,9
USD/AUD	1,53	-1,7	-4,6	7,0	7,4
USD/JPY	106,65	-0,2	-2,0	-2,8	-1,8

Source: Bloomberg, as of May 8th, S&P/Goldman Sachs Indices for Agricultural, Energy, Industrial &	National Bank of Greece | Economic Research Division | Global Markets Analysis
Precious Metals, BofA/ML Indices for Corporate Bond Spreads

6

NBG Global Markets Roundup | Chartroom

N A T I O N A L B A N Κ

O F G R E E C E

Global Cross Asset ETFs: Flows as % of AUM

DM Equities	Bonds
%	%
EM Equities	Commodities
70	70
65	65
60	60
55	55
50	50
45	45
40	40
35	35
30	30
25	25
20	20
15	15
10	10
5	5
0	0
-5	-5
-10	-10
-15	-15
Jan-14May-14Sep-14Jan-15May-15Sep-15Jan-16May-16Sep-16Jan-17May-17	Sep-17Jan-18May-18Sep-18Jan-19May-19Sep-19Jan-20May-20

Source: Bloomberg, NBG estimates, Cumulative flows since January 2014, AUM stands for Assets Under Management, Data as of May 8th

Equity Market Performance - G4

		S&P500		EuroStoxx		FTSE 100		Nikkei 225
112													112
108													108
104													104
100													100
96													96
92													92
88													88
84													84
80													80
76													76
72													72
68													68
64													64
11-Nov	25-Nov	9-Dec	23-Dec	6-Jan	20-Jan	3-Feb	17-Feb	2-Mar	16-Mar	30-Mar	13-Apr	27-Apr	11-May

Source: Bloomberg - Data as of May 8th - Rebased @ 100

Russell 2000 Value & Growth Index

Value/Growth Relative Performance during the previous 6 months (right) Russell 2000 Value (left)

Russell 2000 Growth (left)

2000													0
1900
1800
1700													-5
1600
1500													-10
1400
1300
1200													-15
1100
1000
900													-20
800
700
600	25-Nov			6-Jan									-25
11-Nov	9-Dec	23-Dec	20-Jan	3-Feb	17-Feb	2-Mar	16-Mar	30-Mar	13-Apr	27-Apr	11-May

Source: Bloomberg, Data as of May 8th

Equity ETFs: Flows as % of AUM

%	US	Emerging Markets	Europe exUK	%
35				35
30				30
25				25
20				20
15				15
10				10
5				5
0				0
-5				-5
-10				-10
-15				-15
-20				-20
-25				-25
Jan-14May-14	Sep-14Jan-15May-15	Sep-15Jan-16May-16Sep-16Jan-17May-17Sep-17Jan-18May-18	Sep-18Jan-19May-19Sep-19Jan-20	May-20

Source: Bloomberg, NBG estimates, Cumulative flows since January 2014, AUM stands for Assets Under Management, Data as of May 8th

Equity Market Performance - BRICs

		Brazil		China		Russia		India
114													114
110													110
106													106
102													102
98													98
94													94
90													90
86													86
82													82
78													78
74													74
70													70
66													66
62													62
58													58
11-Nov	25-Nov	9-Dec	23-Dec	6-Jan	20-Jan	3-Feb	17-Feb	2-Mar	16-Mar	30-Mar	13-Apr	27-Apr	11-May

Source: Bloomberg - Data as of May 8th - Rebased @ 100

Russell 2000 & Russell 1000 Index

Small Cap/Large Cap Relative Performance during the previous 6 months (right) Russell 2000-Small cap (left)

Russell 1000-Large Cap (left)

2000													5
1900
1800													0
1700
1600													-5
1500
1400													-10
1300
1200													-15
1100
1000								2-Mar					-20
11-Nov	25-Nov	9-Dec	23-Dec	6-Jan	20-Jan	3-Feb	17-Feb	16-Mar	30-Mar	13-Apr	27-Apr	11-May

Source: Bloomberg, Data as of May 8th

National Bank of Greece | Economic Research Division | Global Markets Analysis

7

NBG Global Markets Roundup | Chartroom

N A T I O N A L B A N Κ

O F G R E E C E

EUR/USD

€/$							EUR-USD					€/$
1,15													1,15
1,14													1,14
1,13													1,13
1,12													1,12
1,11													1,11
1,10													1,10
1,09													1,09
1,08		Stronger USD									1,08
1,07													1,07
1,06													1,06
11-Nov	25-Nov	9-Dec	23-Dec	6-Jan	20-Jan	3-Feb	17-Feb	2-Mar	16-Mar	30-Mar	13-Apr	27-Apr	11-May

Source: Bloomberg, Data as of May 8th

10- Year Government Bond Yields

%		US (LA)		UK (LA)			Japan (RA)		Germany (RA)	%
2,6															0,1
2,4															0,0
2,2															-0,1
2,0
														-0,2
1,8
1,6															-0,3
1,4															-0,4
1,2															-0,5
1,0															-0,6
0,8															-0,7
0,6
														-0,8
0,4
0,2															-0,9
0,0															-1,0
11-Nov	25-Nov	9-Dec	23-Dec	6-Jan		20-Jan	3-Feb	17-Feb	2-Mar	16-Mar	30-Mar	13-Apr	27-Apr	11-May
									Source: Bloomberg - Data as of May 8th
											LA:Left Axis RA:Right Axis
West Texas Intermediate ($/brl)
$/brl								WTI						$/brl
70															70
60															60
50															50
40															40
30															30
20															20
10															10
0															0
-10															-10
-20															-20
-30															-30
-40															-40
-50															-50
11-Nov	25-Nov		9-Dec	23-Dec	6-Jan	20-Jan	3-Feb		17-Feb	2-Mar	16-Mar	30-Mar	13-Apr	27-Apr	11-May

Source: Bloomberg, Data as of May 8th

JPY/USD

$/¥							USD-JPY						$/¥
113													113
112													112
111													111
110													110
109													109
108													108
107													107
106													106
105													105
104			Stronger JPY									104
103											103
102													102
101													101
100													100
11-Nov	25-Nov	9-Dec	23-Dec	6-Jan	20-Jan	3-Feb	17-Feb	2-Mar	16-Mar	30-Mar	13-Apr	27-Apr	11-May

Source: Bloomberg, Data as of May 8th

10- Year Government Bond Spreads

bps			Italy				Portugal			Spain		bps
280													280
260													260
240													240
220													220
200													200
180													180
160													160
140													140
120													120
100													100
80													80
60													60
40													40
20													20
11-Nov	25-Nov	9-Dec	23-Dec	6-Jan	20-Jan	3-Feb	17-Feb	2-Mar	16-Mar	30-Mar	13-Apr	27-Apr	11-May

Source: Bloomberg - Data as of May 8th

Gold ($/ounch)

$/ounch							Gold						$/ounch
1.760													1.760
1.740													1.740
1.720													1.720
1.700													1.700
1.680													1.680
1.660													1.660
1.640													1.640
1.620													1.620
1.600													1.600
1.580													1.580
1.560													1.560
1.540													1.540
1.520													1.520
1.500													1.500
1.480													1.480
1.460													1.460
1.440													1.440
1.420													1.420
1.400	25-Nov												1.400
11-Nov	9-Dec	23-Dec	6-Jan	20-Jan	3-Feb	17-Feb	2-Mar	16-Mar	30-Mar	13-Apr	27-Apr	11-May

Source: Bloomberg, Data as of May 8th

National Bank of Greece | Economic Research Division | Global Markets Analysis

8

NBG Global Markets Roundup | Equity Market Valuation Metrics

US Sectors Valuation

N A T I O N A L B A N Κ

O F G R E E C E

		Price ($)		EPS Growth (%)	Dividend Yield (%)		P/E Ratio			P/BV Ratio
	8/5/2020	% Weekly Change	%YTD	2019	2020	2019	2020	2019	2020	12m fwd	10Yr Avg	2019	2020	12m fwd	10Yr Avg
S&P500	2930	3,5	-9,3	1,2	-20,2	1,8	2,0	20,2	22,7	21,0	15,2	3,6	3,2	3,2	2,5
Energy	295	8,3	-35,4	-28,8	N/A	3,9	5,8	21,8	-215,1	-126,6	19,3	1,6	1,2	1,2	1,7
Materials	330	3,4	-14,4	-15,6	-20,5	2,1	2,5	20,2	22,4	20,6	14,7	2,4	2,2	2,2	2,5
Financials
Diversified Financials	612	1,2	-17,6	1,6	-27,5	1,4	1,9	16,2	18,2	16,8	13,8	1,9	1,5	1,5	1,5
Banks	235	-0,1	-38,1	9,0	-52,5	2,6	4,4	12,3	16,4	14,2	10,9	1,4	0,8	0,8	1,0
Insurance	333	3,0	-24,5	15,8	-3,1	2,2	3,1	13,4	10,4	10,1	10,8	1,5	1,1	1,1	1,1
Real Estate	207	1,5	-14,0	1,9	-5,1	3,1	3,6	21,0	19,0	18,5	18,2	3,7	3,2	3,3	3,0
Industrials
Capital Goods	549	0,9	-24,4	-7,0	-26,1	1,9	2,3	21,2	21,3	19,5	15,6	5,5	3,7	3,6	3,4
Transportation	616	1,5	-21,4	6,6	N/A	1,9	2,2	14,7	2370,8	1540,1	15,3	4,3	3,6	3,5	3,4
Commercial Services	317	4,3	-8,1	12,8	-10,0	1,3	1,5	28,5	28,2	27,0	20,0	6,0	4,9	4,8	3,5
Consumer Discretionary
Retailing	2661	4,6	8,7	4,2	-22,2	0,8	0,7	33,3	46,0	40,8	21,8	13,3	12,6	11,8	6,5
Consumer Services	990	2,5	-24,0	5,0	N/A	2,1	2,0	23,9	92,9	68,4	19,4	14,8	13,2	13,4	6,6
Consumer Durables	289	4,5	-22,4	0,4	-26,6	1,4	1,9	19,2	20,4	19,0	16,8	4,0	2,9	3,0	3,2
Automobiles and parts	76	8,9	-36,2	-16,4	N/A	4,2	1,7	8,5	-38,0	-21,4	8,0	1,4	1,0	1,0	1,7
IT
Technology	1585	6,9	-0,6	2,6	0,8	1,3	1,5	21,6	20,5	19,5	12,7	9,7	10,7	11,0	3,8
Software & Services	2459	6,4	7,0	11,1	6,1	1,0	1,0	29,3	28,6	27,4	17,5	7,9	7,7	7,4	5,2
Semiconductors	1225	7,2	-1,3	-12,2	-0,2	1,8	2,0	18,9	18,6	17,6	13,9	5,5	5,0	4,9	3,1
Communication Services	174	3,7	-4,1	3,0	-13,3	1,2	1,2	21,8	23,4	21,9	17,4	3,5	3,1	3,0	2,9
Media	643	4,4	-1,4	3,8	-13,8	0,4	0,4	27,4	30,2	27,4	20,2	4,2	3,8	3,6	3,2
Consumer Staples
Food & Staples Retailing	479	0,8	-3,6	2,9	-2,8	1,7	1,8	21,5	21,7	21,2	16,2	4,6	4,2	4,1	3,1
Food Beverage & Tobacco	634	1,2	-11,3	-1,7	-4,4	3,3	3,8	19,7	18,3	17,8	17,5	5,3	4,6	4,5	4,9
Household Goods	709	0,3	-4,7	6,6	5,1	2,3	2,5	25,8	23,3	22,9	19,3	8,9	8,3	8,2	5,1
Health Care
Pharmaceuticals	982	0,7	-0,3	9,8	0,8	2,1	2,3	15,9	15,6	15,0	14,5	5,5	4,6	4,4	3,5
Healthcare Equipment	1306	3,0	-5,2	10,3	-2,9	1,0	1,1	20,4	19,7	18,5	15,2	3,7	3,2	3,0	2,6
Utilities	285	0,5	-13,2	4,9	3,4	3,1	3,7	20,7	17,5	17,2	15,8	2,2	1,8	1,8	1,6
Source Factset, Blue box indicates a value more than +2standard devation from average, light blue a value more than +1standard devation from average. Orange box indicates a value less than -2standard devation from average, light orange a value less
than -1standard devation from average

1-month revisions to 2020 & 12-month Forward EPS	12-month revisions to 2020 & 12-month Forward EPS
Earnings Revisions indicate 1-month change in 2020 & 12-month Forward EPS	Earnings Revisions indicate 12-month change in 2020 & 12-month Forward EPS

%					2020		12-month forward		%						2020		12-month forward
						10
0,0
											0
												-10
-10,0												-20
												-30
-20,0												-40
											-50
-30,0												-60
											-70
-40,0												-80
											-90
											-238%	-100
-50,0	IT		Health Care	Real Estate	Materials	S&P500	Comm Services					-110
Utilities	Consumer Staples	Financials	Industrials	Cons Discretionary	Energy	Utilities	Health Care	IT	Consumer Staples	Real Estate	Comm Services	S&P500	Materials	Financials	Industrials	Cons Discretionary	Energy

Source: Factset, Data as of May 8th	Source: Factset, Data as of May 8th
12-month forward EPS are 65% of 2020 EPS and 35% of 2021 EPS	12-month forward EPS are 65% of 2020 EPS and 35% of 2021 EPS
	National Bank of Greece | Economic Research Division | Global Markets Analysis

9

NBG Global Markets Roundup | Equity Market Valuation Metrics

Euro Area Sectors Valuation

N A T I O N A L B A N Κ

O F G R E E C E

		Price (€)		EPS Growth (%)	Dividend Yield (%)		P/E Ratio			P/BV Ratio
	8/5/2020	% Weekly Change %YTD	2019	2020	2019	2020	2019	2020	12m fwd	10Yr Avg	2019	2020	12m fwd	10Yr Avg
EuroStoxx	322	0,1	-20,2	2,4	-30,3	3,1	3,1	16,8	19,0	17,3	13,2	1,7	1,4	1,3	1,4
Energy	221	-0,3	-32,7	-9,8	-61,1	4,9	7,4	13,8	23,5	19,6	11,5	1,3	0,9	0,9	1,1
Materials	367	2,1	-24,7	14,1	-30,7	3,2	3,8	15,4	16,9	15,3	14,2	1,9	1,4	1,4	1,4
Basic Resources	154	0,2	-24,5	-61,6	N/A	3,3	3,0	19,3	-90,3	-53,9	14,9	0,8	0,6	0,6	0,8
Chemicals	1011	1,9	-14,0	-13,3	-15,3	2,7	3,0	21,8	22,5	21,0	15,1	2,1	1,8	1,8	2,2
Financials
Fin/al Services	464	2,5	-7,8	25,4	-21,2	2,4	2,8	15,8	18,1	17,9	14,2	1,7	1,3	1,3	1,3
Banks	54	-2,5	-44,4	-1,3	-50,5	5,7	4,6	9,2	10,3	9,3	9,4	0,6	0,4	0,4	0,7
Insurance	213	-3,7	-29,6	13,0	-9,7	4,8	7,1	11,0	8,5	8,1	9,2	1,0	0,7	0,7	0,9
Real Estate	189	1,1	-23,1	0,1	-2,4	4,2	4,9	19,1	15,1	14,7	16,7	1,0	0,8	0,8	1,0
Industrial	700	0,3	-25,6	11,4	-30,9	2,3	2,5	20,4	21,7	19,4	15,3	3,2	2,3	2,3	2,3
Consumer Discretionary
Media	177	0,2	-21,0	5,4	-14,9	2,9	3,2	17,2	15,8	14,9	15,2	2,4	1,8	1,8	1,8
Retail	550	2,5	-8,6	2,8	-16,2	2,5	2,4	25,2	27,5	25,3	19,1	4,3	3,3	3,2	3,1
Automobiles and parts	344	-0,2	-29,3	-12,2	-69,8	3,7	1,8	8,7	20,0	15,7	8,3	0,9	0,6	0,6	1,0
Travel and Leisure	152	-3,7	-29,0	-10,1	N/A	2,2	0,7	16,8	-22,0	-8,4	13,6	2,0	1,5	1,5	2,0
Technology	573	1,9	-5,4	5,8	-8,7	1,2	0,9	26,9	26,9	24,7	18,2	4,2	3,5	3,4	3,0
Communication Services	252	0,8	-12,9	-14,3	11,7	4,2	4,9	17,5	13,6	13,1	14,1	1,9	1,5	1,5	1,8
Consumer Staples
Food&Beverage	456	-1,8	-23,8	16,8	-25,6	2,1	2,3	20,5	20,9	19,4	18,5	2,7	1,9	1,8	2,6
Household Goods	933	-1,0	-12,9	6,9	-20,0	1,6	1,6	29,6	31,7	29,3	20,9	6,1	4,9	4,7	3,8
Health care	823	0,0	-5,4	7,3	-0,6	2,1	2,3	20,1	18,5	17,7	15,2	2,4	2,1	2,1	2,1
Utilities	305	-0,3	-12,0	57,3	0,2	4,5	5,4	16,2	14,0	13,6	12,6	1,6	1,3	1,3	1,1

Source Factset, Blue box indicates a value more than +2standard devation from average, light blue a value more than +1standard devation from average. Orange box indicates a value less than -2standard devation from average, light orange a value less than -1standard devation from average

1-month revisions to 2020 & 12-month Forward EPS	12-month revisions to 2020 & 12-month Forward EPS
Earnings Revisions indicate 1-month change in 2020 & 12-month Forward EPS	Earnings Revisions indicate 12-month change in 2020 & 12-month Forward EPS

%													%
10										2020	12-month Forward		10
										0
0
												-10
-10
												-20
-20
-30													-30
-40													-40
-50													-50
-60													-60
-70													-70
-80													-80
-90													-90
-100													-100
-110													-110
-120													-120
-130												-379%	-130
-140		Real Estate	Health care	Utilities	Retail	Technology	Chemicals	Insurance	Food&Beverage	Media Household Goods	Materials EuroStoxx Industrial Energy Banks Autos and parts	Basic Resources Travel and Leisure	-140
Fin/al Services	Comm Services

2020

12-month Forward

Utilities

Health care

Real Estate

Insurance

Comm Services

Fin/al Services

Media

Technology

Retail

Household Goods

Chemicals

Food&Beverage

Materials

EuroStoxx

Industrial

Banks

Energy

Autos and parts

Basic Resources

Travel and Leisure

Source: Factset, Data as of May 8th	Source: Factset, Data as of May 8th
12-month forward EPS are 65% of 2020 EPS and 35% of 2021 EPS	12-month forward EPS are 65% of 2020 EPS and 35% of 2021 EPS
	National Bank of Greece | Economic Research Division | Global Markets Analysis

10

NBG Global Markets Roundup | Disclosures & Analyst Certification

N A T I O N A L B A N Κ

O F G R E E C E

DISCLOSURES:

This report has been produced by the Economic Research Division of the National Bank of Greece, which is regulated by the Bank of Greece, and is provided solely as a sheer reference for the information of experienced and sophisticated investors who are expected and considered to be fully able to make their own investment decisions without reliance on its contents, i.e. only after effecting their own independent enquiry from sources of the investors' sole choice. The information contained in this report does not constitute the provision of investment advice and under no circumstances is it to be used or considered as an offer or an invitation to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer or invitation to buy or sell or enter into any agreement with respect to any security, product, service or investment. No information or opinion contained in this report shall constitute any representation or warranty as to future performance of any financial instrument, credit, currency rate or other market or economic measure. Past performance is not necessarily a reliable guide to future performance. National Bank of Greece and/or its affiliates shall not be liable in any matter whatsoever for any consequences (including but not limited to any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits and damages) of any reliance on or usage of this report and accepts no legal responsibility to any investor who directly or indirectly receives this report. The final investment decision must be made by the investor and the responsibility for the investment must be taken by the investor.

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ANALYST CERTIFICATION:

The research analyst denoted by an "AC" on page 1 holds the certificate (type Δ) of the Hellenic Capital Market Commission/Bank of Greece which allows her/him to conduct market analysis and reporting and hereby certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views solely, about any and all of the subject issues. Further, each of these individuals also certifies that no part of any of the report analyst's compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. Also, all opinions and estimates are subject to change without notice and there is no obligation for update.

National Bank of Greece | Economic Research Division | Global Markets Analysis

11