TOP STORIES: 



  Corn Futures Decline as Heat Remains Manageable 


  Corn for December delivery fell 2.4% to $3.36 1/2 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade on Monday, as traders expect any heat damage to crops to stay limited. 


  The weekend weather contained scattered showers and thunderstorms in crop-growing regions, and the weather this week doesn't look to be as unrelentingly hot as previously expected. "Heat is more east focused, but still not quite as intense as expected, with better chances of rain than previously thought," said Arlan Suderman of StoneX. Isolated showers are projected in the Midwest this week, according to agricultural research firm DTN. 


  Soybean Prospects Linked to Success of Economic Recovery -- Market Talk 


  13:51 ET - Without a major drought hurting what's expected to be a large soybean crop in the 2020/21 marketing year, the price of soybeans is most reliant on a timely and smooth recovery from the coronavirus pandemic, says Todd Hubbs of the University of Illinois. "Without a crop shortfall, higher soybean prices rely on demand prospects over the next year," says Hubbs. "Increased demand is linked to the nascent economic recovery and recent developments provide limited support for economic growth prospects." US coronavirus cases hit 3.3M Monday, with states like Florida reporting a resurgence in the virus. Lingering coronavirus will hurt meat consumption in the US, consequentially impacting demand for soybean feed, says Hubbs. Soybean futures are down 2% Monday. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com; @kirkmaltais) 


  Quality Issues Limit Grain Selling -- Market Talk 


  13:29 ET - Expectations that today's crop progress report from the USDA will show degradation in the crop quality of US corn and soybeans has placed a floor on how much grain traders will sell off their positions in futures following a weekend where hot temperatures didn't scorch fields as much as anticipated. "Traders are loath to sell corn and soybeans more aggressively with a broad expectation that US corn/soy crop conditions will decline in the afternoon NASS report," says AgResource, predicting that late-week weather outlooks will soon become a more dominant factor in trading. Corn futures are off 2.4%, soybeans are down 2.1%, and wheat is down 1.9%. The USDA is scheduled to release its latest crop progress report at 4 pm ET. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com; @kirkmaltais) 


  STORIES OF INTEREST: 


  Wheat Export Inspections Perk Up -- Market Talk 


  12:03 ET - Export inspections for US wheat are higher this week--totaling 624,211 metric tons, according to the USDA. It's the largest export inspections week for wheat since the week of June 18, according to the USDA. The uptick in inspections comes as uncertainty around further US-China dealmaking swirls. That, and a wetter weather forecast has wheat futures on the CBOT down Monday, trading 1.2% lower. On Friday, wheat futures closed at $5.34 per bushel, the highest they've traded since late April. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com; @kirkmaltais) 


  Uncertainty Swirls Among Grains Traders About Phase Two -- Market Talk 


  09:37 ET - Reports on Friday that President Trump is doubtful about moving forward with a second phase of trade agreements with China due to dissatisfaction about China's actions in the early days of the coronavirus outbreak, are causing some uncertainty among grain traders Monday. However, thanks in part to the USDA announcing a large Chinese purchase of US corn exports on Friday, traders are skeptical that this means that purchases pursuant to the phase one trade agreement will stop. "[Trump's] comments on Phase 2 was not a positive but not sure the market really believes much that is said in regards to the trade deal as buying appears to be present," says Richard Buttenshaw of Marex Spectron. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com; @kirkmaltais) 


  THE MARKETS: 


  Hogs Up as Traders Doubt Chinese Pullback From Trading -- Market Talk 


  15:31 ET - Lean hogs futures on the CME finish up 2.8%, closing at 51.275 cents per pound. The movement higher is partially related to a disbelief among grains traders that President Trump's disinterest in further trade negotiations with China will equate to lesser grain export purchasing by China. "Even with this news it is doubtful China will halt trade with the US, but it is possible it could be scaled back from what is being predicted," says Karl Setzer of AgriVisor. Cattle futures, meanwhile, finished 0.4% lower at 99.65 cents per pound. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com; @kirkmaltais)