The supporting evidence is straightforward enough. ADP data showed a softer labor market, and the latest ISM survey suggested cooling inflation. And then came the week's surprise: U.S. jobless claims, released this morning, fell to 191,000 for the period ending Nov. 29, well below the 220,000 economists had penciled in. That sort of number forces a double-take - like checking your bank account expecting disaster and finding a small, inexplicable refund. The reading reinforces the narrative of a resilient labor market even as layoffs rise in certain sectors, complicating the Fed's job. It's a reminder that America's employment engine can look creaky from one angle and bulletproof from another, leaving policymakers to interpret whether "191,000" is a sign of strength, or delayed weakness.

The Challenger, Gray & Christmas layoff report arrives next. A delayed factory-orders reading is also on the docket, adding to the week's pile of revelations. Many analysts expect small companies to deliver strong earnings growth next year, helping explain why the Russell 2000 is outperforming the S&P 500 on a quarterly basis - even if small-cap futures slipped 0.17% on Thursday. 

Yet the true suspense has nothing to do with the data. It revolves around the identity of the next Federal Reserve chair. Donald Trump has hinted that Kevin Hassett is his pick. Bond investors have already warned the Treasury that Hassett might align monetary policy too closely with the president's desire for lower rates, a concern that suggests even the bond market now practices conflict mediation. Wall Street, meanwhile, welcomes the idea of a chair inclined to cut rates, others worry inflation might receive all the discipline of a toddler negotiating bedtimes.

Scott Bessent, the US Treasury Secretary, remains the central economic figure in the Trump administration, to the delight of financiers who see him as the adult in the room. According to Bloomberg, he may resume his role as presidential adviser if Kevin Hassett moves to the Fed. Bessent yesterday helped defuse one of the market's potential landmines by assuring investors that the administration has an immediately actionable Plan B, should US courts challenge the legality of tariffs come January.

In corporate news, Snowflake sank 9.2% after forecasting fourth-quarter product revenue below what investors had hoped for. The company did report strengthening demand for its AI agent and signed a $200 million deal with Anthropic, but optimism is not an accounting metric. Salesforce saw the opposite fate: shares rose 5% after hours and 2% in premarket trading as it raised its fiscal 2026 revenue and profit forecasts, crediting strong enterprise interest in its AI agent platform.

Elsewhere, PayPal slipped 1% after JP Morgan downgraded it to "neutral." Kroger, still absorbing higher costs as customers rein in spending, is due to report results alongside Dollar General and Ulta Beauty. Hewlett Packard Enterprise also has earnings in the queue.

News emerged that Sam Altman has quietly explored a deal to acquire or partner with a rocket company - Stoke Space among them - in pursuit of a venture that would compete with SpaceX. The effort could require billions of dollars, apparently the going rate for trying to impress Elon Musk. Democrats in Washington are pressing tech giants - Apple, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia - to explain donations supporting a $250 million White House ballroom project amid concerns over possible quid pro quo arrangements.

Meanwhile, Russia's Vladimir Putin is visiting India to charm Prime Minister Narendra Modi with offers of cheap oil and arms, to the annoyance of the Trump administration.

In Asia-Pacific, Japanese equities were buoyed by a strong reception for a bond issue, dispelling recent concerns and lifting the Nikkei 225 by 2.1%. Other markets traded within relatively narrow ranges, with modest declines in South Korea and Taiwan, and small gains in Australia, India, and China. Europe is bullish, while Wall Street futures hover near zero.

Today's economic highlights:

On today's agenda: the unemployment rate in Switzerland; retail orders in Germany; in the United States, Challenger layoffs, new jobless claims, and the trade balance. See the full calendar here.

  • Dollar index: 98,889
  • Gold: $4,191
  • Crude Oil (BRENT): $62.92 (WTI) $59.27
  • United States 10 years: 4.07%
  • BITCOIN: $92,615

In corporate news:

  • Accenture has invested in Wevo to support customer-led growth, though financial terms of the deal were not disclosed.
  • Monks Investment Trust reported a 29% NAV total return in H1, outperforming its benchmark as it emphasized a selective approach to AI exposure, avoiding big names like Alphabet, Broadcom, and Tesla.
  • European regulators have intensified antitrust scrutiny of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, and TikTok, with actions ranging from billion-euro fines to fresh probes over AI, advertising, and digital market dominance.
  • U.S. layoffs fell 53% in November from the previous month, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, though job cuts remain high YTD, with Verizon leading sector reductions.
  • Allegion announced its quarterly dividend, continuing its regular shareholder returns.
  • Guidewire Software shares rose 5.2% premarket after surpassing Q1 profit expectations.
  • Hormel Foods projected $12.2–$12.5 billion in net sales for FY2026, with adjusted EPS expected to grow up to 10%.
  • Dollar General raised its annual profit and sales forecasts, crediting solid demand for essentials and improved cost controls.
  • BlackRock expects AI to continue driving markets in 2026 but warned of volatility due to market crowding and leverage risks.
  • Meta is under EU investigation over its WhatsApp AI policy, which regulators say could block rival AI providers and harm competition.
  • Amazon is reportedly considering ending its $6B+ annual delivery partnership with USPS, aiming to expand its own logistics network.
  • OpenAI agreed to acquire Neptune, an AI model training tracker provider, to bolster its development capabilities.
  • Tesla's UK car sales fell 19% in November amid increased EV competition and a maturing model lineup.
  • Palantir, Nvidia, and CenterPoint Energy partnered to launch Chain Reaction, a software platform to speed up AI data center construction by addressing supply chain and permitting challenges.
  • J.P. Morgan completed an accelerated bookbuilding for the secondary placement of 3.58% of CIE Automotive's share capital.
  • Boeing elected Bradley D. Tilden to its board as the FTC approved its merger with Spirit AeroSystems, requiring asset divestitures to address antitrust concerns.
  • Charles Schwab plans further mergers and acquisitions, integrating new acquisitions, offering Bitcoin and Ethereum to clients, and exploring various opportunities.
  • Chevron plans to allocate up to $19 billion in 2023 for operations in the U.S. and Guyana, including a $17 billion budget for upstream operations.

Analyst Recommendations:

  • Avalonbay Communities, Inc.: Colliers Securities downgrades to neutral from buy and reduces the target price from USD 200 to USD 195.
  • Bxp, Inc.: KeyBanc Capital Markets upgrades to overweight from sector weight with a target price of USD 80.
  • Eastgroup Properties, Inc.: KeyBanc Capital Markets upgrades to overweight from sector weight with a target price of USD 200.
  • Fiserv, Inc.: JP Morgan downgrades to neutral from overweight with a target price of USD 85.
  • Gitlab Inc.: Macquarie downgrades to neutral from outperform and reduces the target price from USD 70 to USD 40.
  • Marvell Technology Group Ltd: CTBC Securities Investment Service Co LTD upgrades to buy from add with a price target raised from USD 70 to USD 130.
  • Meta Platforms, Inc.: Arete Research upgrades to buy from neutral with a target price of USD 718.
  • Paypal Holdings, Inc.: JP Morgan downgrades to neutral from overweight and reduces the target price from USD 85 to USD 70.
  • Pentair Plc: Barclays downgrades to market weight from overweight and reduces the target price from USD 127 to USD 115.
  • Salesforce, Inc.: Fubon Securities downgrades to neutral from buy and reduces the target price from USD 310 to USD 270.
  • Toast, Inc.: JP Morgan upgrades to overweight from neutral with a target price of USD 43.
  • Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc.: BNP Paribas maintains its underperform recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 72 to USD 50.
  • Ciena Corporation: Morgan Stanley maintains its equalwt recommendation and raises the target price from USD 140 to USD 185.
  • Dollar Tree, Inc.: JP Morgan maintains its overweight recommendation and raises the target price from USD 113 to USD 140.
  • Enphase Energy, Inc.: Rothschild & Co Redburn maintains its neutral recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 49 to USD 27.
  • Inspire Medical Systems, Inc.: Baird maintains its outperform recommendation and raises the target price from USD 125 to USD 180.
  • Macy's, Inc.: TD Cowen maintains its hold recommendation and raises the target price from USD 17 to USD 21.
  • Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc.: Canaccord Genuity maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 850 to USD 1057.
  • Uipath Inc.: Canaccord Genuity maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 15 to USD 19.
  • Ventas, Inc.: KeyBanc Capital Markets maintains its overweight recommendation and raises the target price from USD 70 to USD 85.