Log in
E-mail
Password
Remember
Forgot password ?
Become a member for free
Sign up
Sign up
New member
Sign up for FREE
New customer
Discover our services
Settings
Settings
Dynamic quotes 
OFFON

MarketScreener Homepage  >  News  >  Commodities

News : Commodities
Latest NewsCompaniesMarketsForexCryptocurrenciesCommoditiesInterest RatesBusiness LeadersFinance Pro.CalendarSectors 

Australian National University : Record hot year may be the new normal by 2025 »

share with twitter share with LinkedIn share with facebook
share via e-mail
11/06/2016 | 07:04pm EST

The hottest year on record globally in 2015 could be an average year by 2025 and beyond if carbon emissions continue to rise at the same rate, new research has found.

Lead author Dr Sophie Lewis from the ANU Fenner School of Environment and Society said human activities had already locked in this new normal for future temperatures, but immediate climate action could prevent record extreme seasons year after year.

'If we continue with business-as-usual emissions, extreme seasons will inevitably be the norm within decades and Australia is the canary in the coal mine that will experience this change first,' said Dr Lewis, who is also from the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science.

'If we don't reduce our rate of emissions the record hot summer of 2013 in Australia - when we saw temperatures approaching 50 degrees Celsius in some areas - could be just another average summer season by 2035.

'This research tells us we can potentially prevent record-breaking seasonal temperatures from becoming average at a regional level.'

The idea of a new normal has been used repeatedly when talking about climate change but had never been clearly defined until Dr Lewis and colleagues developed a scientific definition for the term.

'Based on a specific starting point, we determined a new normal occurred when at least half of the years following an extreme year were cooler and half warmer. Only then can a new normal state be declared,' Dr Lewis said.

This process was also used to determine new normal conditions for seasonal and regional changes to the climate, she said.

Using the National Computational Infrastructure supercomputer at ANU to run climate models, the researchers explored when new normal states would appear under the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change's four emissions pathways.

The research team examined seasonal temperatures from December to February across Australia, Europe, Asia and North America.

'The results revealed that while global average temperatures would inevitably enter a new normal under all emissions scenarios, this wasn't the case at seasonal and regional levels,' Dr Lewis.

'We found that with prompt action to reduce greenhouse gases a new normal might never occur in the 21st century at regional levels during the Southern Hemisphere summer and Northern Hemisphere winter.'

The research, supported by the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, is published in the Bulletin of the American Meterological Society.

The Australian National University published this content on 07 November 2016 and is solely responsible for the information contained herein.
Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 07 November 2016 00:04:06 UTC.

share with twitter share with LinkedIn share with facebook
share via e-mail
Latest news "Commodities"
02:36pStocks, oil fall further on accelerating coronavirus concerns
RE
02:24pOil slips for third day as virus fears outweigh supply cuts
RE
02:16pStocks, oil fall further on accelerating coronavirus concerns
RE
12:57pOil slips for 3rd day as virus fears outweigh supply cuts
RE
12:22pOil Extends Fall on Coronavirus-Related Demand Fears
DJ
12:08pJPMorgan to Increase Restrictions on Coal Funding
DJ
11:16aNEWS HIGHLIGHTS : Top Energy News of the Day
DJ
10:15aPersonal Income Seen Up -- Data Week Ahead
DJ
08:34aCalgary's Once-Booming Economy Hit by Oil Industry's Woes
DJ
07:52aIEA says virus-hit oil growth outlook lowest in a decade, could go lower
RE
Latest news "Commodities"