As the electric
vehicle industry grows more than five-fold to over $300 billion in
2024, those e-vehicles not bought primarily on up-front price will
continue to dominate. These are the large vehicles such as buses and
military vehicles and the heavy lifting or pushing vehicles such as
forklifts and earthmovers. Customers here are companies and governments
primarily concerned about total cost of ownership and performance. Less
important are private individuals with concerns about up-front price
when they buy smaller or lighter duty vehicles such as e-cars and
Next come vehicles purchased by individuals. These electric cars, bikes,
leisure boats, light aircraft and so on will be about 35% of the EV
business to 2024. Military e-vehicles, land, water and airborne will be
most of the remaining value market in 2024 and, as with industrial and
commercial ones, they are not bought primarily on up-front price.
IDTechEx forecast that over the next decade, the largest global EV value
sector will be industrial and commercial for land, water and air -
accounting for nearly 50% of the total hybrid and pure electric vehicle
business. It is fully analysed in the IDTechEx report, "Industrial and
Commercial Hybrid & Pure Electric Vehicles 2013-2023: Forecasts,
Opportunities, Players" (www.idtechex.com/icev).
Dr Peter Harrop, Chairman of IDTechEx said, "Manufacturers of industrial
and commercial electric vehicles and their parts/services tend to be
profitable whereas those making personal electric bikes and cars report
most losses and bankruptcies. That said there are far too many
manufacturers of light industrial and commercial e-vehicles. Their
profitability can be improved even further by mergers and a shakeout of
those that are neither niche nor volume players, as happened in the
heavy lifting, pulling or pushing industrial and commercial sector with
electric forklifts, ten years ago."
Within the on-road types, buses are particularly important vehicles
primarily due to the massive programme of the Chinese government. Next
come e-vans/delivery trucks, conventional electric cars and special
designs used as taxis and converted golf cars converted as people movers
in airports, theme parks and hotel grounds.
Off-road, we assess that indoor forklifts will continue to be the main
subsector of industrial and commercial vehicles but with largest growth
from relatively new applications such as agriculture, mining, utility
and construction vehicles and outdoor forklifts.
For more information about IDTechEx visit www.idtechex.com