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THE DAILY MACRO BRIEF: Beige Book, G7, Eurozone Inflation, Hard Brexit, #Trump2020...

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07/18/2019 | 09:07am EDT

Hopes that the Fed will lower its rates by 0.50 points on July 31 have dropped significantly following the publication of the Beige Book last night. For the last day of the G7 meeting, finance ministers are trying to agree on a minimum corporate tax and a regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies. Inflation resumes slightly in June in the euro zone. Short positions in the pound sterling are becoming increasingly important. Surveys on tech giants are being launched on both sides of the Atlantic. Congress rejected a motion to impeach Trump, launched after his racist tweets.

Disillusionment after the Fed's Beige Book. The Fed published yesterday evening its "Beige Book" (its roadmap for the next 6 months), in which it indicated that economic activity continued to grow at a moderate pace, that overall employment grew at a modest pace slightly lower than in the previous period, as did the inflation rate, which was "stable or even slightly lower". Moreover, its prospects are positive despite persistent commercial tensions. In this context, traders now expect the Fed to simply cut rates by 0.25 percentage points at its next meeting on July 31, compared to the 0.50 percentage point anticipated earlier.

Tax evasion and Libra. In order to avoid tax evasion and optimization, the G7 members (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States) are trying to agree on the introduction of minimum corporate taxation. Ministers and central bankers also expressed their "shared concern" about the Libra project, Facebook's crypto-currency.
Inflation rises again in June. The latest estimate of the euro area consumer price index yesterday was 1.3% (compared to 1.2% previously), which is getting closer to the ECB's target of lower inflation but close to 2.0%.

The fears of a no-deal Brexit affect the British Pound. The British currency is trading at 2017 lows around $1.24 due to analysts' concerns that a hard Brexit will emerge. Indeed, Theresa May's successor favorite, Boris Johnson, is determined to reject the Irish backstop. While remaining firmly committed to the United Kingdom leaving the EU on October 31, with or without agreement.

After Google, Amazon. As we mentioned yesterday, the Trump administration announced that an investigation would be launched against Google for a case of treason on behalf of China. Today, Amazon is in the spotlight of justice, this time in Europe. The European Commission accuses the US giant of violating European competition rules. This news should not please Trump, who has already criticized the European Commissioner for Competition for fines imposed on US companies.

Trump is becoming more radical. After his racist attacks on four female Democratic representatives, Trump continues to accuse "left-wing ideologues" of "destroying” their Constitution and removing “the values on which their magnificent country was built". He welcomed the failure of the vote on a motion to dismiss him.

Romain Fournier
© MarketScreener.com 2019
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