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THE DAILY MACRO BRIEF: China-US talks, The Fed, Syria…

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10/10/2019 | 09:12am EDT

The macroeconomic context is marred by the contradictory announcements accompanying a new round of Sino-American trade negotiations in Washington today and tomorrow. Donald Trump is doing Donald Trump while China continues to delay.


"There is a very good chance" that China and the United States will sign an agreement, said Donald Trump yesterday as trade negotiations between the two powers resume today in Washington. The American President has every interest in focusing media attention on this meeting, after his controversial military decision in Syria and the ongoing impeachment procedure. The Chinese side seems skeptical about the chances of progress starting this weekend. There is still a lot of cacophony as Donald Trump claims that he only wants a global agreement, while his services would be ready to negotiate a partial agreement including a currency pact. According to Chinese sources, Beijing's Deputy Prime Minister and Chief Negotiator Liu He is leaving Washington tonight. But others report that it will remain as planned until Friday in the federal capital. There are many examples of corridor noise and all are contradictory.

Economists were able to refine their analysis of the mindset of the Fed's central bankers yesterday with the publication of the minutes of the last meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee. Not surprisingly, opinions are divided in the Policy Committee, although all agree that the risks to growth have increased due to trade and geopolitical tensions.

Operation Spring of Peace begins in Turkey. President Erdogan announced yesterday the launch of his military operation against the Kurdish militia in northern Syria. The objective is to eliminate the "terrorist corridor". The US armed forces, allied with the Kurds in the region, withdrew yesterday after a controversial decision by Donald Trump.

Today's economic highlights :

Macroeconomic news is intense today. Japanese machine orders were very disappointing this morning. In the rest of the day, we will remember in particular:

  • French industrial production
  • Monthly data on the British economy
  • The consumer price index in the United States
  • Weekly unemployment claims in the United States

Romain Fournier
© MarketScreener.com 2019
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