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THE DAILY MACRO BRIEF: Good and bad news from Trump, Setback for Salvini, Argentine Peso, Eco Stat...

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08/14/2019 | 07:16am EDT

Yesterday, markets took advantage of the easing of trade tensions to recover, but the decline is again dominating given the disappointing statistics published this morning in Europe and China. Argentina is digesting the crushing victory of Peronist Alberto Fernandez over President Mauricio Macri. In Italy, it will be necessary to wait until August 20 to know the fate of Giuseppe Conte's government.

Markets react to every Trump tweet. Yesterday the Trump administration decided to postpone punitive customs duties on a series of electronic products (phones and laptops, game consoles, etc.) imported from China until December 15. In addition, Beijing and Washington announced a resumption of talks in two weeks. In parallel to this good news, the American president threatened to leave the World Trade Organization (WTO), due, in his opinion, to the preferential treatment given to China at the expense of the United States. "We will leave if necessary (...) We know they've been screwing us for years and it will never happen again," he said.

In Italy, the examination of the motion of no confidence is postponed. Yesterday, Matteo Salvini wanted the senators to sign the end of the government and an early election to be called. But finally, the Italian Senate decided to postpone the debate on the vote of no confidence tabled by the leader of The League until next week (Tuesday, August 20 precisely).

The ARS/USD exchange rate stabilizes. The Argentine peso lost up to 25% on Monday and 10% yesterday against the dollar, due to the defeat of outgoing Liberal President Mauricio Macri against Alberto Fernandez in Sunday's primary elections, held in preparation for the October presidential election. Today, the exchange rate seems to be stabilizing.
Source: Bloomberg, 08/14/19

More bad economic statistics. In Europe, industrial production fell by 1.6% (consensus -1.4%). In Germany, GDP contracted by 0.1% in the second quarter, in line with analysts' expectations. In France, as expected, the consumer price index fell by 0.2% in July. In China, industrial production growth reached 4.8% in July, its lowest growth in 17 years.

Romain Fournier
© MarketScreener.com 2019
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