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THE DAILY MACRO BRIEF: New American sanctions, Brexit and China

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11/08/2018 | 08:56am EDT

Brexit talks are progressing too slowly for European negotiator Michel Barnier and the EU is questioning the constitution of the European budget for the period 2021-2027. China's foreign exchange reserves are at their lowest level in a year and a half. The Trump administration announces new taxes on Chinese imports of certain aluminum foils, as well as the departure of its Minister of Justice.

Bye Bye London. Yesterday, Michel Barnier said progress were insufficient with London on an agreement on the United Kingdom's exit from the EU and dashed any hope of an extraordinary summit in November by publishing on his twitter account "it is clear that work is still needed”. Meanwhile, the Terra Nova think tank published a report stating that the United Kingdom was one of the three main contributors to the European budget (along with Germany and France) and that its exit from the European Union forced the EU to find new resources to complete the 2021-2027 budget.

China's foreign exchange reserves tumble. After the Central Bank's numerous interventions to combat the depreciation of the yuan (-1.5% against the dollar in October) due to the ongoing trade war, China's foreign exchange reserves, the largest in the world, fell by $34 billion in October to a year and a half low of $3,053 billion.

Jeff Sessions resigned "at the request" of Donald Trump. A few hours after the mid-term parliamentary elections, Donald Trump announced on twitter the departure of his justice minister Jeff Sessions – in the hot seat since the opening of the investigation in March 2017 into a possible collusion between Moscow and Trump during the 2016 presidential elections.

America not happy with China. There is a "significant gain in market share of Chinese imports at the expense of the American industry". The United States Department of Commerce will impose new anti-dumping and anti-subsidy duties on Chinese aluminum imports, surtaxed from 96.3% to 176.2%.

Mamma Mia. The Italian populist government composed of the far-right league and the 5 Star Movement cannot agree on the issue of extending the limitation period for legal actions for many crimes such as corruption. Luigi Di Maio warned that if there was no agreement between the two parties, the coalition pact would lapse. In addition, the European Commission today declared that the Italian deficit will increase considerably (+2.9% in 2019 and +3.1% in 2020, compared to 2.4% and 2.1%) if Rome does not modify its 2019 draft budget.

Romain Fournier
© MarketScreener.com 2018
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