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OFFON

Romain
Fournier

Journalist
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THE DAILY MACRO BRIEF: Tensions build up, EU stands firm, Trade Agreement, Trip to India...

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06/24/2019 | 10:01am EDT

Increased pressure on Tehran to renegotiate the nuclear agreement. India, who recently entered the trade war, will talk to America. No and no, the Brexit agreement will not be renegotiated. The first results of the American banks' stress tests are positive. Meanwhile, the countries of Southeast Asia are moving forward with creating the world's largest free trade agreement.

Trump threatened Iran with additional sanctions. Tensions keep rising between Tehran and Washington. Last week, Iran shot down an American drone and Trump, who was preparing reprisals, gave up at the last minute on the planned military strikes against Iran. Tehran warned on Saturday that the slightest attack on its territory will "set fire to the interests of America and its allies". Nevertheless, this weekend the US President announced the entry into force of new sanctions as of Monday. Trump is putting maximum pressure on the country to renegotiate the nuclear agreement.


From Washington to New Delhi. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo will meet with his Indian counterpart, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, following the country's decision last Sunday to increase its tariffs on about 30 US products.

Prospects too ambitious. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi expects growth of 12% per year until 2024, while it did not exceed 6% in the first quarter of 2019. As a result, it anticipates a GDP of $5 trillion within 5 years (up from $2,800 billion in 2018).

The future Prime Minister will not renegotiate the Brexit agreement. Boris Johnson, May's favorite successor candidate, plans to renegotiate the divorce agreement with Brussels and in particular the "safety net" in Northern Ireland. However, in the absence of renegotiation, he assured that the United Kingdom would leave the EU on October 31, with or without agreement and that he would not pay the Brexit invoice. His rival, Jeremy Hunt, also hopes to renegotiate the exit agreement, but Brussels is adamant on the subject: "we are open to discussions on the future relationship between the United Kingdom and the EU if the United Kingdom's position should change, but the withdrawal agreement is not open to renegotiation" said Donald Tusk, President of the European Council.

In other news. The results of the banks' stress tests revealed, according to the Fed, that the major banks in the United States are "solidly capitalized" to withstand a recession.
Economists fear a global currency war if Trump imposes punitive tariffs on all countries that he claims manipulate their currencies to make their exports cheaper than American products.

The euro appreciated to its highest level since March against the dollar following better than expected PMI indices in the euro zone (notably in France, Germany and services) and after the Fed's comments on Wednesday, the dollar depreciated against all currencies (see graph below).

US National Security Advisor John Bolton travelled to Jerusalem on Saturday and will remain there until June 25 to meet with Israeli Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu and his Russian counterpart Nikolai Petroshev to discuss regional security and Iran's presence in Syria.

Romain Fournier
© MarketScreener.com 2019
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