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THE DAILY MACRO BRIEF : US-Iran tensions, US-China tensions, Trump’s trade war…

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05/21/2019 | 08:55am EDT

The conflict between Tehran and Washington is escalating. Donald Trump is preparing to launch his campaign for re-election in November 2020. The OECD is once again lowering its growth expectations for 2019. The German Central Bank is pessimistic about economic growth in the second quarter. Australia could lower its rates in June. The corruption scandal caused a political earthquake in Austria.

The decline in trade is hampering global growth. The OECD forecasts world economic growth of 3.2% this year (lower than its March 2019 forecast) and 3.4% in 2020. "The already fragile global economy is being destabilized by trade tensions," said OECD Chief Economist Laurence Boone. The escalation of trade tensions is weighing on international trade, which is growing at the slowest rate in ten years. For the euro area, however, growth prospects have been raised (to 1.2%) since the last estimate.

The Bundesbank expects growth to stagnate. The German Central Bank estimates that the growth in the first quarter of 2019 was due to temporary factors and that it will therefore have difficulty maintaining its pace in the second quarter. Particularly affected by weak global demand due to trade tensions and a decline in car sales, the German economy is expected to stagnate over the April-June period, according to the Buba.

The Democrats' race for the American presidential elections. Donald Trump will launch his official campaign for the November 2020 presidential elections in June. The current tenant of the White House has already raised the necessary funds and organized various political meetings to put all the chances on his side. Many candidates, twenty-three to be precise, have embarked on the Democratic nomination race, a record.

Tension is rising again between the United States and Iran. Three days after declaring that he did not expect a war between the United States and Iran, Donald Trump twitted on Sunday that if Iran wants to fight, it will be Iran's “official end”. After denouncing Iran's attitude, Donald Trump said yesterday that he was ready to discuss with Iranian representatives "when they are ready". But President Hassan Rohani believes that "the situation is not conducive to dialogue". Tensions between Washington and Tehran are increasing and American pressure to renegotiate the international agreement on Iranian nuclear power is at its highest.

Rates to be lowered for Australia. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) plans to lower rates to support the economy, as the country's growth is at its lowest level since the 2008 financial crisis. This possibility will be explored in two weeks' time in June at its next meeting, Governor Philip Lowe said.

In Austria, the FPÖ leaves the government. While Austrian Vice-Chancellor Heinz-Christian Strache resigned on Saturday following a corruption scandal, Interior Minister Herbert Kickl was dismissed yesterday, following which all FPÖ (far right) Party ministers decided to leave the government.

In other news. The US Department of Commerce is reversing some of its bans on Chinese telecom giant Huawei, which finally has until August 19 to allow it to purchase equipment and components from its US suppliers. The Fed warns of the risks associated with the increase in the level of debt of American companies. The Chinese Central Bank believes that it is possible to keep the exchange rate of the yuan at a stable level, and does not wish to engage in a currency war in order not to compromise its chances of reaching a trade agreement with the United States. The House of Representatives will investigate Donald Trump's personal wealth, which it accuses of artificially reducing to save taxes and claims access to his tax returns.
Stocks mentioned in the article
ChangeLast1st jan.
US DOLLAR / CHINESE YUAN RENMINBI (USD/CNY) -0.03% 7.0878 Delayed Quote.2.77%

Romain Fournier
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