"People who are against tariffs are fools! We are now the richest and most respected country in the world, with near-zero inflation and a stockmarket at record highs," Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social on Sunday. "A dividend of at least $2,000 per person (excluding high-income earners!) will be paid to everyone."

On Monday, he clarified that all revenue collected above that $2,000 would be used to pay down the debt.

This statement somewhat muddies his message and his defense of his tariffs in the Supreme Court.

National security or source of revenue?

For the record, most of the tariffs imposed by the US president were imposed under the IEEPA (International Emergency Economic Powers Act). This is a 1977 law that allows the president to take measures to combat an "unusual and extraordinary threat."

During last week's hearing at the Supreme Court, it was therefore the threat to national security that was highlighted to justify the introduction of these tariffs.

This position is not only legally questionable (the Supreme Court justices were quite skeptical), but it is also undermined by Donald Trump himself, who constantly presents the tariffs as a source of revenue for the federal budget.

In fact, tariffs are indeed a source of revenue. According to Bank of America's calculations, customs duty revenues reached $375bn on an annualized basis in September. 

The midterms are approaching

The idea of sending Americans a check had already been floated earlier this year, during the heyday of Elon Musk's DOGE. The savings made by the Department of Government Efficiency were to be translated into a $2,000 check paid to Americans. This was known at the time as the "DOGE dividend."

A few months later, Elon Musk returned to his business at Tesla, DOGE caused quite a mess in various administrations with savings far from the initial promise ($2 trillion), and the idea of a dividend was buried.

So why bring this type of proposal back to the table? Especially since the deficit remains very high, despite customs revenue.

This proposal comes at a time when Donald Trump is struggling in the polls. And not just in the polls, since Republicans suffered several electoral setbacks last week.

Behind these defeats lies one issue: the cost of living for Americans. In 2024, Donald Trump campaigned on this theme, denouncing "Biden's inflation" and promising to bring prices down. But a year after his re-election, he is struggling to deliver tangible results and voters are punishing him for it.

Donald Trump therefore needs to show that his policies are good for Americans and that they are translating into increased purchasing power. This is a necessary condition to avoid a repeat of the 2018 scenario in a year's time: the loss of the majority in the House of Representatives during the midterms.