FRANKFURT (DEUTSCHE-BOERSE AG) – Hopes for a resolution to the U.S. government shutdown are lifting markets, though analysts believe a breakout from the current sideways trend in the DAX is unlikely in the short term and may only materialize mid-term.

November 10, 2025. FRANKFURT (Deutsche Borse). Concerns about an AI bubble grew steadily throughout November, but for now, optimism is making a comeback. "It appears a breakthrough has been achieved in the U.S. budget dispute," reports Ralf Umlauf of Helaba. However, he cautions that crucial votes in the Senate and House of Representatives are still pending. Additionally, funding for federal agencies has only been secured through the end of January. "The issue of U.S. finances could therefore resurface on the agenda soon."

There is positive news for the German automotive industry: China has lifted its export ban on chips from Dutch manufacturer Nexperia. "This eases pressure on the automotive sector, which had been severely affected by supply shortages," reports Rolf Schäffer of LBBW.

On Monday morning, the DAX (DE0008469008) stands at 23,920 points, after having dropped below 23,500 on Friday. The Stoxx Europe 600 (EU0009658202) is at 565 points. U.S. markets pared their losses by Friday's close, ending more or less unchanged. Over the week, however, the Nasdaq lost more than 3 percent. Gold and Bitcoin prices have recently rebounded. An ounce of gold is currently trading at $4,074, and Bitcoin at $106,059, after briefly dipping below $100,000.

DekaBank: DAX Soon at 27,000 Points

According to Ulrich Kater of DekaBank, virtually all key figures from the current earnings season in Germany have been convincing, except for "a one-off effect at a major automaker." Nevertheless, the DAX has been moving sideways since May, while major indices in the U.S., Japan, and Asia have regularly reached new record highs. "The reasons are the lack of economic reform initiatives from the federal government and the DAX's low exposure to AI beneficiaries," says Kater. For international investors, there are currently more attractive alternatives.

However, he remains positive on the medium- and long-term outlook for German stocks and recommends buying during periods of weakness. "In the longer run, government investment programs and possibly structural reforms should provide support." DekaBank forecasts the DAX at 27,000 points in six months.

Commerzbank "Cautiously Optimistic" for 2026

Jorg Krämer of Commerzbank currently considers the DAX highly valued, as companies have not increased their profits. For 2026, however, he is cautiously optimistic. He expects that companies will see slightly higher earnings next year due to an improved economic outlook. "Additionally, the significant U.S. interest rate cuts we expect should have a positive effect on the DAX," he adds. Furthermore, trade conflicts should cause less uncertainty in 2026 than in 2025, as President Donald Trump has already struck agreements with many countries.

"Testing the Support Zone Nothing Unusual"

Technical analyst Christoph Geyer believes the recent market pullback was mainly relevant for traders, not long-term investors. "Testing the support zone is nothing unusual in a sideways trend," he explains. Indicators are now in oversold territory, which should help maintain this zone. Moreover, there was an intraday sentiment reversal in the U.S. market on Friday, which, if confirmed on Monday, could also support the German market. "All in all, prospects look good for a positive start to the week."

Flood of DAX Earnings Reports

Whether U.S. economic data, such as the scheduled October consumer price index, will be released this week remains uncertain due to the shutdown. However, a flood of corporate earnings is expected in Germany. This week, third-quarter results will be reported by Munich Re (DE0008430026), Porsche Automobil Holding (DE000PAH0038), RWE (DE0007037129), Eon (DE000ENAG999), Infineon (DE0006231004), Bayer (DE000BAY0017), Deutsche Telekom (DE0005557508), Siemens (DE0007236101), Siemens Energy (DE000ENER6Y0), and Allianz (DE0008404005).

Key Economic Data

Tuesday, November 11

USA: Veterans Day. Bond market remains closed.

11:00 a.m. Germany: ZEW Economic Sentiment for November. DekaBank expects the sentiment among financial market analysts surveyed by ZEW to improve slightly again in November.

Friday, November 14

3:00 a.m. China: Retail Sales/Industrial Production for October. According to Commerzbank, domestic demand likely remained weak in October, so the growth in retail sales probably slowed further. However, exports have likely increased again despite the trade conflict with the U.S., which should have supported industrial production.

By Anna-Maria Borse, November 10, 2025, © Deutsche Borse AG

(Deutsche Borse AG is solely responsible for the content of this column. The articles do not constitute an invitation to buy or sell securities or other assets.)