The war in Iran is not only shaking energy markets. It is also weakening a far less visible but equally strategic resource: helium. Indispensable for cooling high-tech equipment, this gas has suffered a supply shock since the halt of natural gas exports from Qatar, which accounts for 34% of global production. The primary distributors are the industrial gas giants: Air Liquide, Linde, and Air Products.

Often associated with party balloons, helium is actually at the heart of numerous critical industries. It stabilizes temperatures in semiconductor manufacturing, powers MRI machines, and secures rocket launches. However, it is rare on Earth: trapped in small quantities within certain natural gas deposits, it is a slow process to produce. Increasing supply rapidly is impossible. Consequently, tension is mounting in an already tight market. Industrial players, usually covered by long-term contracts, are turning to the spot market, where prices have more than doubled, to guarantee their supplies. "It is the black swan that everyone feared," Cliff Cain of Pulsar told the Wall Street Journal.

But is this a bit excessive?

What is certain is that Iranian strikes damaged the gas facilities at Ras Laffan in Qatar, reducing helium exports by 14% and suggesting years of repairs ahead. Even in the event of a rapid de-escalation, the effects will be long-lasting. Air Liquide warned several days ago that its helium supply would be penalized by the situation.

Nevertheless, the situation is not critical in terms of supply: it is primarily prices that are affected by the rising risk premium. Bernstein estimates that the risk of disruption for semiconductors remains low thanks to several buffers: significant industrial inventories (up to 6 months), high recycling capacity (75-90%), cavern storage, and the ramp-up of Russian production.

Air Liquide and its helium cavern

"With the situation in the Middle East and the attacks last week on the natural gas field, there is now a helium shortage," admitted Armelle Levieux, Vice President of the Air Liquide group, to Reuters last week. At this stage, the French giant has reallocated its supply via other geographical zones. Air Liquide is, for example, a key supplier to TSMC, providing for more than 60 facilities in Taiwan.

Furthermore, the group possesses a "cavern" dedicated to helium storage in Germany. Operational since 2016, it is located in Gronau-Epe (North Rhine-Westphalia). At the time, it was a world first: storage takes place 1,300 meters underground in a salt cavity managed by Air Liquide, where natural brine is used to adjust storage volume. Ten years ago, the group highlighted that it could store "more than a year's worth of its helium supply" there.

Air Liquide generates approximately 2.5% of its revenue from helium (the most exposed group in the sector is Air Products, which derives 7.5% of its revenue from this gas). Bernstein calculated that a 10% increase in the price of helium would improve the French company's net profit by 1.1% by year-end, ceteris paribus. This is relatively modest. The research firm notes that the group is structurally well-positioned, notably thanks to strategic storage in German salt caverns, which strengthens its ability to meet customer commitments and capture price increases, particularly on the spot market, even if a large portion of volumes is under contract. A tightening of the helium market is therefore generally positive but marginal for Air Liquide.

Regardless, the French group's defensive virtues and rumors of shortages have benefited the stock since the beginning of the year. The share price is up 11%, significantly outperforming the Stoxx Europe 600 (-1.9%) and the CAC 40 (-4.6%). Analysts, who are always somewhat uneasy about the stock's valuation, seem to be taking advantage of the windfall. In recent days, Morgan Stanley and Kepler Cheuvreux have raised their recommendations. Price targets have tightened upward. The average 12-month target from the S&P Capital IQ consensus stands at 196 EUR, with a range of 168 to 216 EUR. The stock is trading this morning at 177.66 EUR, after five consecutive sessions of gains.