Commenting on Alstom's quarterly performance, CEO Henri Poupart-Lafarge praised "the group's ability to deliver complex projects in many regions around the world."

Order Book Surpasses 100 Billion Euros

In Q3 (October 1 to December 31, 2025), Alstom more than doubled its order intake year-on-year, reaching €9.6bn. Analysts had forecast €8.55bn. Order volume over nine months thus reached €20bn (+34.2% organically), while revenue hit €13.9bn (+7.2% organically). The order backlog as of December 31, 2025, stood at €100.3bn.

Q3 revenue rose 2.6% to €4.8bn, slightly above the consensus of €4.75bn. After accounting for adverse currency effects, organic revenue growth stood at 5.9%. The increase in sales was driven by strong execution in Rolling Stock activities (up 6% organically) and Signalling (+13% organically).

Over the nine months of this fiscal year, Europe remained Alstom's largest market by revenue (€8.3bn, or 60% of the total). However, its share of new orders fell, dropping from 74% to 56% compared to the previous year for the same period.

Over nine months, in the Americas region, orders tripled year-on-year from €2bn to €6bn, now accounting for 30% of new orders. In Asia-Pacific, during the same period, orders doubled to €2.6bn, buoyed by major projects such as the one in Melbourne, Australia. Jefferies notes that "this strong momentum was expected given the volume of announced orders, and it appears to be continuing into the fourth quarter. Despite a tougher comparison base and an expected slowdown in the second half, organic growth remained robust in the third quarter."

Maintaining Free Cash Flow Guidance Disappoints

Following this quarterly release, Alstom maintained its outlook for the fiscal year and its medium-term ambitions. The sustainable mobility specialist is still targeting:

- a "orders-to-sales" ratio above 1, as in the Rolling Stock division

- organic revenue growth above 5%

- an adjusted operating margin of around 7%

- and free cash flow (FCF) generation of between €200m to €400m. The decision to stick with this annual FCF target disappointed markets on Wednesday.

"While the group is clearly on track to meet its revenue targets (with slight upward revisions likely), focus remains on margins and free cash flow generation in the second half," Jefferies stated regarding these forecasts.

On the same point, Oddo BHF noted that "for free cash flow, the CFO is not narrowing the range, estimating that uncertainties remain over payments due in Q4 (both related to orders and certifications). As such, the broker continues to forecast free cash flow of €302m for this fiscal year (compared to a consensus of €382m). It has raised its target price from €26 to €30, while maintaining its Outperform rating on the stock. On the FCF target, UBS commented that "this caution is explained by low down payments on orders this quarter and the importance of several key milestones expected in Q4." The Swiss bank maintains its Neutral recommendation on the stock, with a target price of €24.

Meanwhile, Alphavalue acknowledged that Alstom delivered a solid Q3. "However, free cash flow (FCF) guidance has not been revised. It is somewhat disappointing, but was largely anticipated after the pre-closing conference call. The strength of order intake supported the quarter and will help offset weaker cash generation, caused by the postponement of TGV certification in the annual results. We believe the company will generate significant cash flows next year. We reiterate our Buy recommendation," this broker explained.

Additionally, over the three years from fiscal 2024/25 to 2026/27, Alstom expects to generate at least €1.5bn in free cash flow, with working capital requirements related to contracts being a negative factor over this period. According to UBS, "this target implies FCF of €700m for FY 2027, with a cash conversion rate of around 70%".