In the latest note, analysts reaffirmed their overweight recommendation on the stock, while slightly raising their price target from 33.40 to 34.30 euros, implying an upside potential of 31.02% compared to Tuesday's closing price. They further indicated the possibility of the share price doubling over the next three years. Reflecting their confidence, the stock has also been added to the JPM Analyst Focus List.
JP Morgan forecasts a compound annual growth rate for adjusted earnings per share of 21% over the 2026-2030 period, driven by revenue growth and internal margin improvement measures.
At the same time, the American bank expects free cash flow to double to 3.6 billion euros for 2027-2029, whereas the Bloomberg consensus currently anticipates 2.7 billion euros.
Within the rail sector, JP Morgan projects average organic growth of around 6% through 2030. Additionally, the German economic stimulus plan could provide further upside to these long-term forecasts.
Finally, the change in CEO, with the arrival of Martin Sion, a former Safran executive, is viewed positively. He will take office on April 1, 2026. According to analysts, his appointment presents an opportunity to enhance transparency and unlock value. They note that past turnarounds in the industrial sector have shown that an external CEO often brings greater transparency and accountability by introducing new segment performance indicators.
Alstom is one of the world leading manufacturers of infrastructures for rail transport sector. Net sales break down by family of products and services as follows:
- rolling stocks (51.1%): trains, tramways and locomotives;
- railway services (24.3%): maintenance, modernization, management of spare parts, support and technical assistance services;
- signaling, information and control systems (14.3%);
- railway infrastructures (10.3%): infrastructures for the track laying, lines electrical power systems, electromechanical equipment, telecommunication devices and traveler information in station, terminals for automatic purchase of tickets, access to escalators, lifts for disabled, automatic landing doors on platforms, ventilation, air conditioning and lighting systems).
Net sales are distributed geographically as follows: France (17.1%), Europe (39.6%), Americas (19.8%), Asia/Pacific (14.5%) and Middle East/Africa/Central Asia (9%).
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