March 16 (Reuters) - Bank of America raised its Brent crude oil forecast for 2026 to $77.50 a barrel from $61, citing tight supply caused by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which carries about 20% of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas flow.
The bank said Brent could trade at $70 a barrel if a quick resolution were found and oil flows normalise by April. However, if the disruption extends into the second half of the year, Brent could average as high as $130 a barrel, a scenario it described as unlikely.
U.S. allies said they had no immediate plans to send ships to unblock the Strait of Hormuz, rebuffing a request by U.S. President Donald Trump for military support to keep the waterway open.
Brent crude futures were down 92 cents at $102.22 a barrel by 1248 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was down $3.45, or 3.5%, to $95.26.
Other major brokerages have also revised their average oil price forecasts for 2026 as the Middle East conflict enters its third week, after the fighting drove oil prices up nearly 40% this month. [O/R]
Israel said it has detailed plans for at least three more weeks of war as its military pounded sites across Iran overnight, while Iranian drone attacks temporarily shut Dubai airport and hit an oil facility in the United Arab Emirates.
Brokerage Brent WTI Fo Price Targets
/Agency re
ca
st
s
as
of
2026 2027 2026 2027
BofA $77.50 $66 - $61 Ma Expects Brent
($61 ($62 ($59 rc to average
previou previo previ h $80/bbl in
sly) usly) ously 16 Q2'26, but
) , average
20 $76/bbl in
26 Q3'26
Barclays $85 - - - Ma But if the
(from rc Strait of
$65 h Hormuz takes
previou 13 4-6 weeks to
sly) , normalise,
Forecas 20 says Brent
t 26 could climb
assumes to $100/bbl
Strait
of
Hormuz
normali
ses in
2-3
weeks
ANZ - - - - Ma Raises Brent
rc forecast for
h Q1'26 to
12 $100/bbl from
, $90/bbl
20
26
Goldman $77($71 $71($7 $72($6 $67($ Ma Expects Brent
Sachs previou 0 7 66 rc to average
sly) previo previo previ h $75/bbl and
usly) usly) ously 12 $71/bbl over
) , the next
20 three and
26 twelve
months,
respectively.
BMI $70($67 $70 $68 $68 Ma Expects Brent
previou rc to average
sly) h $67/bbl and
12 $69/bbl in
, Q3'26 and
20 Q4'26
26 respectively.
Citi $71($63 $64 $68($6 $61 Ma Anticipates
previou 0 rc Brent
sly) previo h averaging
usly) 11 $75/bbl in
, Q1'26,
20 $78/bbl in
26 Q2'26, and
$68/bbl in
Q3'26
HSBC $80($65 $70($6 $76($6 $67($ Ma
previou 6 1 63 rc
sly) previo previo previ h
usly) usly) ously 10
) ,
20
26
Macquarie - - - - Ma Expects crude
rc prices could
h rise to
6, $150/bbl or
20 above if the
26 Strait of
Hormuz
remains
closed for
several weeks
UBS $72($62 $70 $68($5 $66 Ma Expects
previou 8 rc prices
sly) previo h to move
usly) 4, towards
20 >$100/bbl and
26 into more
severe
demand
destruction
territory of
$120+/bbl if
flows through
Hormuz remain
disrupted
(Reporting by Sarah Qureshi in Bengaluru; editing by Barbara Lewis)
